CHAPTER III

ARGUMENT FROM CAUSAL RELATION

Arguments from causal relation are divided into three classes, I. Arguments from Effect to Cause, II. Arguments from Cause to Effect, and III. Arguments from Effect to Effect. All arguments from causal relation may be classed under one or the other of these divisions. These arguments are based upon a fact which human experience has demonstrated to be true—the fact that everything that occurs has back of it some adequate cause. In ancient times this belief in the laws of universal causation did not exist. Hence every occurrence of any importance was attributed to the commands of one of the numerous heathen gods. Instead of attributing the defeat of a general to poor management it was customary to say, “The gods decreed that this general should be defeated in war.”

We still have remnants of this belief. These remnants consist of popular superstitions, such as the supposition that Friday is an unlucky day, that the number thirteen is unlucky, that the breaking of a looking glass portends bad luck, or that the sight of a black cat in the path is sure to be followed by some disaster. Modern science has abolished most of these superstitions by pointing out the fact upon which all causal relation arguments are based, viz.—that everything that happens has back of it a reasonable cause—or in other words, if a thing is true there must be some sufficient reason for it. So well has this fact been established that, with the exception of the less enlightened members of society, the belief in the laws of causation is universal. Upon this sound basis must every argument find its ultimate justification. Even inductions and deductions may be traced to their source where the law of cause and effect will finally determine their validity. It is therefore of the utmost importance that we give careful consideration to this class of arguments. As in the case of imperfect induction, we are reasoning from the known to the unknown; from things of which we are conscious to things that are beyond the realm of our perception. We shall consider the form of these arguments and the conditions with which they must comply in order to be valid.

I. Argument from effect to cause.

The argument from effect to cause is one which relies upon an observed effect to prove the operation of an unobserved cause. Upon arising in the morning I observe that the ground which was bare the evening before is now white with snow. Therefore I reason that snow must have fallen during the night, although no snow is now falling and I have not seen any snow in the actual process of falling. The snow-covered ground is the effect which I observe and the unobserved fall of snow during the night is the only possible cause for this effect. If a friend who has not yet seen the snow disputes my assertion that there was a snowfall during the night by saying that it is too warm to snow, I may effectively establish my argument and refute his own by calling him to the window and pointing to the snow. I should point to the effect as establishing the existence of the cause. This would be conclusive evidence of the truth of my statement.

The argument from effect to cause is based upon things observed after the disputed fact. This process is called _a posteriori_ reasoning which means reasoning _from that which comes after_. This is the process of reasoning employed by the detective in tracing a criminal. The detective by means of skillful observations taken after a crime is committed reasons back to the person who is guilty. The fact that the criminal has usually made an attempt to avoid leaving any traces that may be used as a basis of _a posteriori_ reasoning makes this process a most interesting one and accounts for much of the popularity of detective stories.

This use of reasoning from effect to cause was first popularized by the detective stories of Edgar Allan Poe and appears to have reached its climax in the _Adventures of Sherlock Holmes_, the creation of Sir A. Conan Doyle. Sherlock Holmes possesses remarkable powers of observation. He notices that a young lady who calls to see him has finger tips that are slightly spatulate. From this effect he reasons back to the cause and determines that it is the result of much use of the piano. From this and other observations he reasons that the young lady is a musician. He observes that a farmer has a certain kind of mud on his boots and reasons that the man has just come from a particular town near London where such mud is to be found. The certain kind of mud on the farmer’s boots is the effect; the recent presence of the farmer in that particular town near London is the cause. Observing the effect Holmes reasons back to the cause, or in other words, he constructs an argument from effect to cause.

The application of this process of reasoning to the practice of argumentation and debate is easily seen. The politician who says that the high cost of living is due to the growth of monopolies employs an argument from effect (_i. e._, the high cost of living) to cause (_i. e._, the growth of monopolies). The minister who declares that the prevalence of drunkenness is due to the licensed saloon expounds an argument from effect (_i. e._, the prevalence of drunkenness) to cause (_i. e._, the licensed saloon). The student who asserts that his class dues are excessive because the business of the class is poorly managed uses an argument from effect (_i. e._, excessive class dues) to cause (_i. e._, poor management).

In order to be sound an argument from effect to cause must conform to the following requirements:

_1. The alleged cause must be sufficient to produce the effect._

When the existence of a definite cause is alleged to have produced an observed effect, the burden of proving the sufficiency of that cause rests upon him who asserts its operation. No fault of reasoning is more common than that of regarding an insufficient cause as sufficient. If a man is successful we attribute his success to one quality, such as perseverance; whereas his success may be due to a combination of qualities. There may be a hundred other men who possess more perseverance and yet fail. When a financial panic occurs we attribute it to the rule of a certain political party; whereas the action of that party may have been the smallest of the factors causing the panic. Perseverance may be a quality contributing to success, but perseverance alone is not sufficient to secure success. The action of a political party may aid in producing a panic, but seldom are conditions such that its action alone is sufficient to produce a panic. The question of what is sufficient cause demands the exercise of sound judgment. A fall of three feet would hardly be regarded as a sufficient cause for the death of a man; a fall of one hundred feet would be regarded as sufficient cause for his death. Between these two extremes the individual judgment considering other circumstances connected with such an event, must determine the adequacy of the cause to produce the result in any given case. It is therefore plain that the debater who points to a result as produced by a definite cause must show the adequacy of that cause.

_2. No other cause must have intervened between the alleged cause and the effect._

A clear field must be shown for the operation of the alleged cause. This can be done by proving that no other cause could have produced the observed effect. Other causes which might possibly have produced the effect must be shown to have been inoperative or inadequate. For example, a student fails in his studies. He is called before the delinquent board of the faculty and explains his failure by arguing that he has had poor health. He alleges poor health as the cause of the observed effect—the failure in his studies. A member of the board, however, is skeptical regarding the validity of the argument and asks him if it is not true that each week he attends the theatre at least once and sometimes as often as four times. The student is forced to admit that such is the case. Further inquiry reveals the fact that he has been attending a dancing school one night each week; that he belongs to a club which meets every Tuesday and Friday night; and that he is known to spend much of his time in a public billiard room. These facts show an independent cause (_i. e._, general dissipation) which has intervened between the alleged cause (_i. e._, poor health) and the effect (_i. e._, failure in his studies). The student has therefore failed to prove his argument that poor health, which is a legitimate cause, is responsible for his failure. The evidence shows that general dissipation, which is not a legitimate cause, has intervened between the alleged cause and the effect.

If the student had been able to show that he had been diligent in his efforts, had attended to business in a reasonable manner, and that his previous record had been satisfactory he would have established his argument that ill health was the cause of his failure. In every argument from effect to cause the adequacy of the alleged cause must first be shown and then evidence must be produced establishing the fact that no cause, other than the one alleged, produced the effect.

_3. The alleged cause must not have been prevented from operating._

As stated in the preceding section the alleged cause must have a clear field for action. Not only must no other cause have intervened to produce the effect attributed to the alleged cause, but no forces must have intervened to prevent the alleged cause from operating. Any circumstance which appears to have prevented the operation of the alleged cause should be examined carefully. One morning a man was found dead near the railroad. As there were some bruises on his body, the cause of his death was attributed to his being struck by a local freight which passed that point at midnight. No other train passed over this road at night and the man had been killed sometime within six or eight hours of the time when he was found. The case seemed clear. The result (death) was apparently due to the alleged cause (a freight train). Investigation, however, revealed the fact that the freight train had not run that night on account of a wreck on a branch line. Therefore an outside force,—viz., the wreck, had prevented the alleged cause from operating. Hence it could not be the true cause. The inquiry into the alleged cause ultimately resulted in the revealing of the true cause—willful murder.

In arguing from effect to cause the adequacy of the alleged cause must be proved, the fact that no other cause intervened between the alleged cause and the observed effect must be clearly demonstrated, and the circumstances of the case must show that the alleged cause was not prevented from operating. With these requirements fulfilled such an argument may be regarded as sound. It will be seen that the application of these rules requires sound judgment and practical common sense. The argument will be effective in persuading others only when every requirement is met in a plain, straightforward manner.

II. Argument from cause to effect.

The argument from cause to effect is one which relies upon an observed cause to prove or foretell the existence of an unobserved effect. For example, I observe that the temperature is very low; the thermometer registers below zero and the exposed parts of my body tingle with cold when I am out of doors. This is a cause of several effects. One of them is that the pond near my home will be frozen over. I observe the cause (_i. e._, the low temperature) and at once state the effect (_i. e._, the ice on the pond). The process by which I reached this conclusion is called _a priori_ reasoning. The conclusion is based upon circumstances observed before the disputed fact. Likewise, I observe that it is now beginning to rain and that appearances indicate a heavy downpour. I at once come to the conclusion that the path across the meadow will be muddy when I pass over it in half an hour from now.

This case differs from the preceding one only in the fact that in the first case the effect existed when the cause was observed, whereas in the latter case the effect did not exist when the cause was observed. In both cases the observed cause is the basis for determining the unobserved effect. In this way we may reason from the past to the present, from the remote past to the less remote past, from the present to the future, from the near future to the more remote future, or from the past to the future.

The student will doubtless have observed that the argument from cause to effect as well as that from effect to cause is a special form of deduction. The syllogistic form may be applied to either of these processes of reasoning for the purpose of testing their strength. Applying the syllogistic form to the _a priori_ reasoning involved in one of the preceding illustrations we have:

A. Low temperature is always followed by the forming of ice.

B. This is low temperature.

C. Therefore it is followed by the forming of ice.

Applying the syllogistic form to the _a posteriori_ reasoning involved in one of the examples given under the discussion of that process we have:

A. All times when the ground is covered with snow are times when there has been a snowfall.

B. This is a time when the ground is covered with snow.

C. Therefore this is a time when there has been a snowfall.

For the purpose of extreme simplicity we may represent these two processes by the following formula:

I. _A posteriori_ reasoning.

1. A is _preceded_ by B

2. This is A

3. Therefore it is preceded by B.

II. _A priori_ reasoning.

1. A is _followed_ by B

2. This is A

3. Therefore it is followed by B.

The advocates of a high protective tariff argue that if the tariff is removed financial disaster will overwhelm the country. They support this contention by showing that the large manufacturing industries are now able to sell their products at a reasonable price; import duties prevent foreign manufacturers from shipping their goods into this country and selling them much cheaper than our manufacturers can make them. But if the tariff is removed foreign made goods will drive out American made goods, as the foreign goods can be sold much cheaper. Therefore factories and mills must cease operations because there will be no demand for their products. Workmen will be thrown out of employment and capital will be idle. Starvation will overtake the working man and financial ruin will overtake the business man. This is a typical example of an argument from cause to effect. The operation of the cause (the removal of the protective tariff) will produce the alleged effect (industrial disaster). This argument appears to be valid, but an equally plausible argument may be constructed against protection. We must, therefore, look at the foundations of each argument for the purpose of determining its validity. As in the case of argument from effect to cause we must exercise sound judgment in applying certain requirements to each particular argument. An argument from cause to effect must conform to the following requirements:

_1. The observed cause must be sufficient to produce the alleged effect._

This requirement implies absolute sufficiency of cause, not probable sufficiency. Habitual inattention to business or professional duties is a sure cause for failure. Habitual drunkenness is a sure cause for ill health. Being run over by a locomotive is a sure cause of death. There may be some exceptions to the above general rules, but the certainty of the effect following the cause is so great that for all practical purposes we may rely absolutely upon the sequence.

_2. When past experience is invoked it must show that the alleged effect has always followed the observed cause._

An observed cause may possibly have an alleged effect even though there is not one chance in a thousand that it will have this effect. No valid argument can be constructed upon such a chance. In pure science this rule is absolute. A combination of the same chemicals under the same conditions always produces the same effect. The bringing of a magnet near a piece of steel always results in the same effect so far as the force which one exerts upon the other is concerned. When we depart from the realm of exact science the working out of the rule becomes less certain. Nevertheless, if human experience has sanctioned the adoption of the rule we may rely upon it even though there are exceptions. A rise in the tax rate is always followed by more revenue to the government. A scarcity in the supply of iron is always followed by a rise in the price. A drouth in the wheat belt is always followed by an increase in the price of flour. There may be exceptions to these examples, but the exceptions are so few and the number of instances supporting the rule is so great that we feel safe in relying upon it. It is this kind of certainty, rather than the absolute certainty of science, which argumentation demands.

_3. No force must intervene to prevent the observed cause from operating to produce the alleged effect._

A drouth in the wheat belt naturally causes an advance in the price of flour. Past experience has proved this to be the case, and, furthermore, the cause is adequate to produce the alleged effect. Nevertheless, a lowering of the duty on wheat might permit wheat from foreign countries to be imported in such quantities that there would be no rise in the price of flour. The lowering of the duty on wheat would be another force intervening to prevent the observed cause (the drouth in the wheat belt) from producing the alleged effect (the rise in the price of flour). Therefore we must always examine the circumstances of each case to determine whether there are any forces at work which will prevent the observed cause from producing the alleged effect.

_4. The conclusion established should be verified by positive evidence wherever possible._

After all the other tests have been satisfied the argument from cause to effect may be established or overthrown by the production of positive evidence. A disappears and B is accused of his murder. A perfect case is made out and B is convicted and sentenced to death. Then A suddenly appears. The innocence of B is effectively established. Cases of this kind are not unknown to the criminal law, though unfortunately the missing man is usually discovered after his supposed murderer has been put to death. This illustration suggests that too much care cannot be exercised in substantiating an argument from cause to effect.

The argument from cause to effect is most frequently employed in criminal trials. In such cases the motive for committing the crime is regarded as the cause and the crime as the effect. The argument is usually begun by proving the existence of strong motives such as an abnormal desire to acquire more money or property, to work revenge on bitter enemies, or to avert financial or domestic disaster. With these strong motives shown it is easy to connect them with the crime. This is the method of argument from cause to effect which is used by Daniel Webster in the White murder trial. He showed clearly that the Knapps believed that they could obtain the fortune of White by destroying his last will and murdering him. He argued that this was the cause which produced the effect of murder. The following extract from Webster’s speech before the jury will show the application made of the argument from cause to effect.

“When we look back, then, to the state of things immediately on the discovery of the murder, we see that suspicion would naturally turn at once, not to the heirs at law, but to those principally benefited by the will. They, and they alone, would be supposed to have a direct object for wishing Mr. White’s life terminated. And, strange as it may seem, we find counsel now insisting, that, if no apology, it is yet mitigation of the atrocity of the Knapps’ conduct in attempting to charge this foul murder on Mr. White, the nephew and principal devisee, that public suspicion was already so directed. As if assassination of character were excusable in proportion as circumstances may render it easy. Their endeavors, when they knew they were suspected themselves, to fix the charge on others, by foul means and by falsehood, are fair and strong proof of their own guilt.

“The counsel say that they might safely admit that Richard Crowninshield, Jr., was the perpetrator of this murder.

“But how could they safely admit that? If that were admitted everything else would follow. For why should Richard Crowninshield, Jr., kill Mr. White? He was not his heir; nor was he his devisee; nor his enemy. What could be his motive? If Richard Crowninshield, Jr., killed Mr. White he did it at some one’s procurement who himself had a motive. And who having any motive, is shown to have had any intercourse with Richard Crowninshield, Jr., but Joseph Knapp and this principally through the agency of the prisoner at the bar? It is the infirmity, the distressing difficulty of the prisoner’s case, that his counsel cannot and dare not admit what they yet cannot disprove, and what all must believe. He who believes, on this evidence, that Richard Crowninshield, Jr., was the immediate murderer cannot doubt that both the Knapps were conspirators in that murder.”

=III. Argument from effect to effect.=

An argument from effect to effect is one in which an argument from effect to cause is combined with an argument from cause to effect. To illustrate this kind of argument we may explain a simple example frequently used in this connection. A boy announces that there is skating this morning because the thermometer registers below zero. Now the thermometer registering below zero is not the cause of the skating. Both the registering of the thermometer and the skating are the effects of a common cause, viz.—low temperature. The boy has observed one of the effects and at once concludes that the other effect must exist. His is an argument from effect to effect, or to be more exact, an argument from one effect of a cause to another effect of the same cause. The whole process of reasoning involved as well as the relation between the two parts of an argument from effect to effect may be represented by the following tabulation:

_A. Argument from effect to cause._

1. All times when the thermometer registers below zero are times when the temperature is far below freezing.

2. This is a time when the thermometer registers below zero.

3. Therefore this is a time when the temperature is far below freezing.

_B. Argument from cause to effect._

1. All times when the temperature is far below freezing are times when skating ice is formed.

2. This is a time when the temperature is far below freezing.

3. Therefore this is a time when skating ice is formed.

The above analysis of the reasoning involved in an argument from effect to effect will suggest the method of procedure to be employed in testing its validity. The first step consists of dividing the argument into the two essential processes employed, viz.—argument from effect to cause, and argument from cause to effect. The second step consists of applying the rules already considered in connection with each of these processes to the parts revealed by the first step. In this way the validity of any argument from effect to effect may be determined.

SUMMARY OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR ARGUMENTS FROM CAUSAL RELATION

I. Arguments from Effect to Cause.

1. The alleged cause must be sufficient to produce the effect.

2. No other cause must have intervened between the alleged cause and the effect.

3. The alleged cause must not have been prevented from operating.

II. Argument from Cause to Effect.

1. The observed cause must be sufficient to produce the alleged effect.

2. When past experience is invoked it must show that the alleged effect has always followed the observed cause.

3. No other force must intervene to prevent the observed cause from operating to produce the alleged effect.

4. The conclusion established should be verified by positive evidence wherever possible.

III. Argument from Effect to Effect.

1. The argument must be resolved into its two parts, the argument from effect to cause, and the argument from cause to effect, and the rules under I and II applied.

EXERCISES IN ARGUMENT FROM CAUSAL RELATION

I. State the kind of argument involved in each of the following passages.

1. If a Socialist president is elected, financial disaster is sure to overtake our country.

2. This has been the coldest winter ever known in the United States. The rapid destruction of our forests is directly responsible for this undesirable change of climate and we are to reap still further evils from this same cause.

3. Since we have conclusive proof that the savages of the island have murdered this missionary, we can no longer be in doubt as to what became of his companions.

4. “Every word uttered by a speaker costs him some physical loss; and in the strictest sense, he burns that others may have light—so much eloquence, so much of his body resolved into carbonic acid, water and urea.”—Huxley.

5. “The Constitution of the United States is so concise and so general in its terms, that even had America been as slowly moving a country as China, many questions must have arisen on the interpretation of the fundamental law which would have modified its aspect. But America has been the most swiftly expanding of all countries. Hence the questions that have presented themselves have often related to matters which the framers of the Constitution could not have contemplated. Wiser than Justinian before them or Napoleon after them, they foresaw that their work would need to be elucidated by a judicial commentary. But they were far from conjecturing the enormous strain to which some of their expressions would be subjected in the effort to apply them to new facts.”—Bryce.

6. “The last cause of this disobedient spirit in the colonies is hardly less powerful than the rest, as it is not merely moral but laid deep in the natural constitution of things. Three thousand miles of ocean lie between you and them. No contrivance can prevent the effect of this distance in weakening government. Seas roll and months pass, between the order and the execution; and the want of a speedy explanation of a single point is enough to defeat a whole system.”—Burke.

7. “Permit me, Sir, to add another circumstance in our colonies, which contributes no mean part towards the growth and effect of this untractable spirit. I mean their education. In no country perhaps in the world is the law so general a study. The profession itself is numerous and powerful; and in most provinces it takes the lead. The greater number of the deputies sent to the Congress were lawyers. But all who read (and most do read), endeavor to obtain some smattering in that science. I have been told by an eminent bookseller, that in no branch of his business, after tracts of popular devotion, were so many books as those on the law exported to the plantations. The colonists have now fallen into the way of printing them for their own use. I hear that they have sold nearly as many of Blackstone’s _Commentaries_ in America as in England. General Gage marks out this disposition very particularly in a letter on your table. He states that all the people in his government are lawyers, or smatterers in the law; and that in Boston they have been enabled, by successful chicane, wholly to evade many parts of one of your capital penal constitutions. The smartness of debate will say that this knowledge ought to teach them more clearly the rights of legislature, their obligation to obedience, and the penalties of rebellion. All this is mighty well. But my honorable and learned friend on the floor, who condescends to mark what I say for animadversion, will disdain that ground. He has heard, as well as I, that when great honors and great emoluments do not win over this knowledge to the service of the State, it is a formidable adversary to Government. If the spirit be not tamed and broken by these happy methods, it is stubborn and litigious. _Abeunt studia in mores._ This study renders men acute, inquisitive, dexterous, prompt in attack, ready in defence, full of resources. In other countries, the people, more simple, and of a less mercurial cast, judge of an ill principle in government only by an actual grievance; here they anticipate the evil, and judge of the pressure of the grievance by the badness of the principle. They augur misgovernment at a distance; and snuff the approach of tyranny in every tainted breeze.”—Burke.

II. Attach definite circumstances to each of the foregoing arguments and then apply the requirements for validity to each one. State the results.

III. Point out the kind of reasoning which may be employed in reaching each of the following conclusions.

1. The record of our debating teams as compared with that of our opponents shows that we shall win this debate.

2. Harold Small has been put on probation.

3. Under these conditions an inheritance tax should be levied.

4. International arbitration will ultimately take the place of war as a method of settling disputes between nations.

IV. Analyze completely the reasoning processes employed in Exercise III. Where they may be reduced to syllogistic form, determine the validity of the resulting syllogisms.

V. Write an argument from causal relation in support of any proposition which you wish to discuss. Employ each of the three classes of argument from causal relation.