Part 4

True 1851. 1861. 1871. Age. Returned at Returned Returned Returned Returned Returned Returned Returned Returned next lower correctly. at next at next correctly. at next at next correctly. at next age. higher age. lower age. higher age. lower age. higher age. 0–5 . . . 1176753 31700 . . . 1354907 33400 . . . 1536464 36000 5–10 . . . 1018528 11700 . . . 1139560 18400 . . . 1314819 21000 10–15 . . . 952295 7705 . . . 1041489 16400 . . . 1199770 19000 15–20 . . . 865531 2700 . . . 941530 6400 . . . 1065713 9000 20–25 . . . 784455 . . . . . . 846210 . . . . . . 937917 . . . 25–30 8300 688045 . . . 7600 726687 . . . 5000 838278 . . . 30–35 11300 613589 . . . 7600 661090 . . . 5000 746320 . . . 35–40 4300 531380 . . . 600 590280 3400 . . . 640819 4000 40–45 1300 457411 . . . . . . 539058 . . . . . . 580097 . . . 45–50 16800 373082 . . . 8600 444710 . . . 6000 500947 . . . 50–55 19800 315104 . . . 8600 375596 . . . 6000 441788 . . . 55–60 31000 242892 . . . 16600 295400 . . . 14000 343907 . . . 60–65 12000 210840 . . . 3600 252536 . . . 2000 282675 . . . 65–70 16400 151640 . . . 13000 175538 . . . 12000 205370 . . . 70–75 . . . 114730 1736 . . . 128428 1500 . . . 149887 1000 75–80 . . . 63280 3520 . . . 70280 3000 . . . 81091 2000 80–85 . . . 28170 1323 . . . 31256 1100 . . . 36573 600 85–90 . . . 9100 312 . . . 9259 250 . . . 11085 150 90–95 . . . 1970 196 . . . 1941 160 . . . 2233 100 95–100 . . . 260 58 . . . 239 35 . . . 290 24 100– . . . 20 . . . . . . 20 . . . . . . 17 . . .

TABLE VIII.—Shewing the differences between (1) The National percentage of persons surviving at each age in 1871, (including estimated loss by emigration in 1861–71) calculated on the numbers ten years younger enumerated in 1861; and (2) the ratios of inhabitants enumerated in each Division in 1871, compared with the respective populations ten years younger enumerated in 1861. The populations employed have first been corrected according to Statements A and B.

Age in I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. VIII. IX. X. XI. England 1871 London. South South Eastern. South West North North Yorkshire. Northern. Welsh. and Eastern. Midland. Western. Midland. Midland. Western. Wales. MALES. Excess or deficiency of the ratio of survivors, compared with National ratio. 10–15 -4.3 +7.6 +6.1 +1.9 -1.3 -.3 -.6 -.7 +2.8 +4.2 -.7 +0.8 15–20 +1.6 +1.2 -8.8 -11.2 -9.4 -3.6 -6.0 +1.6 +3.6 +4.8 -3.6 -2.0 20–25 +14.5 -4.0 -20.9 -25.3 -26.8 -10.0 +14.2 +2.7 +4.4 +12.8 -9.9 -6.4 25–30 +21.6 -3.2 -14.1 -21.2 -28 5 -8.4 +13.0 +4.6 +6.0 +14.6 -13.1 -3 0 30–35 +7.4 -2.8 -4.2 -6.6 -17.8 -5.9 -6.0 -1.2 +4.5 +5.5 -9 5 -2.3 35–40 -1.6 +.1 +1.0 -.3 -8.8 +4.4 -2.3 -3.4 +3.8 +2.0 -7.0 -2.0 40–45 -3.6 +.2 +1.8 +.5 -4.9 -3.4 +1.0 -2.3 +3.7 +3.3 -7.2 -1.5 45–50 -5.9 +1.7 +2.4 +1.9 +1.1 +1.8 +.6 -3.5 +1.8 +2.9 -3.0 -1.1 50–55 -7.2 +2.1 +2.1 +2.4 -.8 -2.1 +1.8 -4.9 +2.5 +2.0 -.6 -1.2 55–60 -10.6 +5.5 +2.6 +2.7 +1.3 -1.8 +2.9 -6.7 +1.4 +.9 +.9 -1.3 60–65 -8.5 +4.2 +4.8 +5.7 +1.3 -1.2 +2.5 -7.3 -1.7 +.7 +.6 -1.0 65–70 -4.2 +10.5 +8.3 +10.5 +7.2 +3.6 +6.0 -3.9 +.9 +1.8 +2.3 +3.2 70–75 -5.4 +9.0 +7.8 +10.0 +7.7 +2.5 +6.5 -6.3 -.3 +2.2 +2.1 +2.6 75–80 -4.8 +8.0 +6.5 +9.4 +7.1 +4.3 +5.5 -4.5 -1.3 +1.7 +6.6 +3.3 80–85 -3.1 +4.4 +2.6 +6.1 +4.9 +2.8 +3.0 -3.4 -2.1 +.5 +8.0 +2.1 85–90 -.4 +2.8 +.1 +3.5 +1.6 +1.4 +.6 -2.2 -1.5 +2.3 +4.7 +1.1 FEMALES. Excess or deficiency of the ratio of survivors, compared with the National ratio. 10–15 -3.0 +5.5 +1.6 -.5 -2 9 -1.4 -1.9 . . . +1.2 +26 -2.3 -.3 15–20 +15.4 -1.0 -7.1 -15.0 -9.4 +3.1 -6.9 +7.8 +3.9 +1.2 -7.8 -.l 20–25 +30.0 +1.5 -11.7 -20.3 -14.6 -4.9 -11.1 +9.2 +3.6 +8 -12.9 +.1 25–30 +18.9 +8.0 -6.0 -12.5 -16.8 -5.3 -10.3 +5.4 +3.5 +4.6 -11.9 +.1 30–35 +4.6 +7.9 -1.0 +5.5 -12.2 -4.8 -5.9 -.3 +3.7 +5.6 +5.8 -.7 35–40 +3.1 +5.3 +1.3 -2.5 -7.2 +2.2 -3.3 -2.9 +3.7 +4.4 -4.4 -1.3 40–45 -5.0 +4.2 +1.3 -.3 -4.3 -1.8 -1.8 -2.1 +2.5 +1.5 -5.8 -1.4 45–50 -6.4 +3.7 +2.1 +.3 -1.1 -.9 -1.1 -2.4 +1.8 +1.4 -2.8 -1.1 50–55 -5.8 +4.1 +1.7 +.3 +.7 -1.3 +.3 -4.1 +1.5 +2.3 -.2 -.9 55–60 -6.9 +5.7 +3.6 +1.2 +.1 -.8 +1.2 -5.0 +2.1 +2.2 -.3 -.6 60–65 -4.7 +4.3 +3.7 +2.2 +1.1 -.6 +.5 -4.9 -1.1 -.1 +2.1 -.5 65–70 -3.9 +3.7 +4.0 +5.5 +3.2 +.5 -.1 -6.9 -2.3 -.5 +1.2 -.3 70–75 -4.0 +6.0 +4.1 +6.1 +3.5 +.3 +1.0 -8.4 +3.0 -.8 +.8 -.2 75–80 -3.2 +3.5 +.7 +5.7 +3.0 +.3 +.6 -7.1 -4.6 -.4 +4.3 -.1 80–85 -2.4 +2.1 -.1 +4.3 +.4 +.5 -1.2 -5.7 +3.8 -2.0 +8.1 -.2 85–90 +.1 +1.6 +.2 +3.8 +1.5 +.8 -.7 -2.6 -1.4 -.1 +4.7 +.7

Memo.—If the mortality in each Division was exactly the same, these ratios would truly represent loss by emigration or gain by immigration; however, there is a good reason to think that at the higher ages the losses are (in Divisions I and VIII especially) caused by excessive mortality, and the gains in other Divisions are largely occasioned by the mortality therein being below the average.

FOOTNOTES.

{4} This should be read “0 and under 5.”

{6} These estimates have been made upon the basis of an apportionment derived from a consideration of the “English Life Table No. 3;” but I refrain from going into a detailed account of the process, for fear of rendering this paper more prolix and uninteresting than its character necessitates.

{8a} Net gain of incoming Irish, foreigners, &c., in excess of those departing. Net loss of English-born Emigrants, in excess of English returning home.

{8b} This is framed on the assumption that the migrations in each year were exactly alike in number.

{11a} It will be noticed that some of the ratios of inaccuracy attributed to the census figures of 1851 are lower than those for later censuses. These exceptions to the rule of decreasing inaccuracy might be removed without any very violent disturbance of the estimates shewn in Table IV, but it is thought scarcely requisite to do so.

{11b} The percentage would be 20.0 (more or less), except at high ages, for each year of error.

{14} Net Gain.

{15} A further slight modification in the estimates of unregistered male births will be noticed. It affects the estimated emigration in 1861–70 to the extent of about 10,000 persons,—making it 156,248 instead of 165,800.

{16} The following specimen calculation, shewing the ingredients which constitute the computed deaths in 1861–1870 amongst females born in 1851–1855, in 1816–1820, and in 1811–1815 respectively, will illustrate what I mean:—

Year of Born 1851–55. Born 1816–20. Born 1811–15. Death. Age Age Age Totals. Age Age Totals. Age Age Totals. 5–10. 10–15. 15–20. 35–45. 45–55. 45–55. 55–65. 1861 6730 518 . . . 7248 6234 645 6879 6514 . . . 6514 1862 5259 1603 . . . 6862 4999 1994 6993 6669 . . . 6669 1863 4630 2915 . . . 7575 3688 3392 7080 6813 . . . 6813 1864 2452 3989 . . . 6441 2350 5366 7716 7686 . . . 7686 1865 678 4626 . . . 5304 785 6993 7778 7873 . . . 7873 1866 . . . 4499 620 5119 . . . 8048 8048 7413 844 8257 1867 . . . 2949 1786 4735 . . . 7547 7547 5443 2410 7853 1868 . . . 2274 3045 5319 . . . 7359 7359 3813 3983 7796 1860 . . . 1437 4351 5788 . . . 7859 7859 2466 5985 8451 1870 . . . 510 6192 6702 . . . 8098 8098 873 8264 9137 19749 25350 15994 61093 18056 57301 75357 55563 21486 77049

{19a} The first line of Table VIII shews the effect of the removal of families from the first division to the semi-suburban districts in divisions II and III. Such families take with them a good many children; hence the loss to the metropolitan division, and the gain to the two divisions mentioned of both boys and girls.

{19b} The following statement may make this fact clearer:—

Division. Births recorded Population in Proportion 1841–45. 1871 as 100 to— born 1841–45. I. London 316037 289951 91.7 V. 266860 126219 47.3 South-western VIII. 392151 279606 71.3 North-western

The survivors, according to the English Life Table No. 3, should be about 62.2 per cent. The low rate of mortality in the South-western counties renders it certain that, but for migrations, the ratio of enumerated population to the corresponding births would be higher than 62.2 in that division; in the other divisions it would be lower.

{20} I am of opinion that the gain in this column, so far as regards London death-rates, is due to the departure of many women when in bad health, some of whom die in the country. But for the effect of such departures, the recorded deaths and the apparent net gain by migrations would reach higher numbers.

{22} The procedure for instance in 1881 might be:—Take the English population at each age in 1871 as already corrected, and introduce the numbers of births returned in 1876–80 and 1871–75 as the first two terms of the series, adding a reasonable allowance for non-registration. Deduct the deaths in 1871–80, duly apportioned under periods of birth. The gross number of either sex enumerated in 1881 being known, the net loss or gain by migrations can then be ascertained. Apportion this in somewhat similar proportions to those observed in 1851–60. The final results will exhibit approximately the distribution of population by ages in 1881.

{23a} It will be noticed that I have paid no regard to the interval of time between the census day and the January preceding, treating the exact decennium as being a near enough equivalent of the interval between census and census.

{23b} These numbers represent the births in the periods mentioned, _plus_ an allowance for omissions, viz. 1¾ per cent. on births in 1866–70, and 2, 2¼, and 3½ per cent. on births in the earlier periods respectively.

{23c} The correction adopted in the case of female births is rather larger than in that of male births. These figures are those returned, _plus_ 2 per cent. on the births in 1866–70, and 2¼, 2¾, and 4 per cent. respectively on the births in the earlier periods.

{24a} Births, plus allowance for those unregistered, say 2 per cent. on births in 1866–70, and 2¾, 3¼, and 4 per cent. respectively on births in the earlier periods.

{24b} The few deaths “age not stated” are disregarded.

{25a} Births, _plus_ allowance for those unregistered, say 1½ per cent. on births in 1866–70, and 2¼, 2.65 and 3.5 per cent. respectively on births in the earlier periods.

{25b} The few deaths “are not stated” are disregarded.

{25c} These figures are, I think, improbable; I suppose the apportionment of deaths may be chiefly in fault.