Part 3

After 35, both sexes in London and in the north-western counties exhibit a steady loss at each age, no doubt attributable in the main to the heavy mortality experienced in those divisions. The rural divisions numbered V and XI shew a loss until past the age of 50, due to emigration. These and several other agricultural divisions (those numbered II, III, and IV), shew considerable gains at the higher ages, partly due to their mortality being low, and partly resulting from other causes.

It is evident that those who emigrate beyond sea (from Division V for example) are older persons than those who leave their native division to seek employment at a short distance, as do the majority of those who migrate from the eastern counties (Division IV). Two-thirds of these latter are perhaps between the ages of 14 and 20 years when they depart, and very few of them can be more than 25 years old.

The apparent relative mortality of the sexes at certain ages must be influenced by the dissimilar degrees of inaccuracy in the population returns for males and females respectively, as the following short statement will shew:—

Mean population Mean population Deaths Deaths per 1000. 1861–71, from 1861–71, from 1861–70. uncorrected corrected figures. figures. From From uncorrected. corrected. Males. Fem’l’s. Males. Fem’l’s. Males. Fem’l’s. M. F. M. F. 15–20 1021321 1035205 1011321 1035632 62921 68553 6.2 6.6 6.2 6.6 20–25 906063 1011063 892063 938433 76591 80463 8.5 8.0 8.6 8.6 25–30 788782 886088 788782 849341 147734 160329 9.9 9.7 9.9 10.0 30–35 704005 769381 710005 761546

The facts I have stated, and the experiments I have made, are perhaps sufficient to suggest by what methods of estimation an idea can be gained of the distribution of population as to ages, when once the total increase or decrease is known. {22} But they also tend to shew the difficulties which surround the subject, and the need which exists that enquirers should summon up sufficient courage to treat with a certain degree of freedom the returns of the census and registration offices.

* * * * *

TABLE I.—Showing the Rate of Increase of Population (per cent.) of each sex and _at each age_ in the several Registration Divisions of England and Wales during the ten years, 1851–61.

TABLE II.—Shewing the Proportion (per cent.) of Population enumerated in 1861 to that enumerated _at corresponding ages ten years earlier_, in the several Registration Divisions, and in England and Wales.

[These two Tables having been calculated simply with the object of shewing that the proportional results obtainable by a comparison of the numbers enumerated at successive censuses, at particular ages, do not display sufficient regularity to justify the belief that such proportions would be approximately maintained decennium after decennium,—it is considered unnecessary to print them. The remaining Tables are printed in full, as without reference to, and careful consideration of, the facts they display, the paper would almost lose its significance.]

TABLE III.—Shewing the enumerated population in 1851, 1861, and 1871, at each quinquennial period of life, the estimated births in 1851–70, the registered deaths apportioned according to date of birth, and the numbers of inhabitants lost or gained, on the hypothesis of the correctness of the preceding figures.

Born Population enumerated. Deaths registered. Difference—referable to errors in and migrations {23a} MALES. MALES. 1851–60. 1861–70. 1851. 1861. 1871. 1851–60. 1861–70. Loss. Gain. Loss. Gain. 1866–70 . . . 2011024 1536464 . . . 427200 . . . . . . 47360 . . . {23b} 1861–65 . . . 1887702 1350819 . . . 546170 . . . . . . . . . 9287 {23b} 1856–60 1751531 1354907 1220770 365536 180534 31088 . . . . . . 46397 {23b} 1851–55 1651656 1172960 1084713 482227 60259 . . . 3531 27988 . . . {23b} 1846–50 1176753 1059889 951917 156291 62499 . . . 39427 45473 . . . 1841–45 1050228 957930 843278 58497 75494 33801 . . . 39158 . . . 1836–40 963995 860210 746320 60004 75606 43781 . . . 38284 . . . 1831–35 873236 734287 640819 69604 74657 69345 . . . 18811 . . . 1826–30 795455 661690 590097 67451 77910 66314 . . . . . . 6317 1821–25 699345 590280 506947 65694 81085 43371 . . . 2248 . . . 1816–20 617889 551058 455788 66739 84309 92 . . . 10901 . . . 1811–15 532680 453310 345907 67483 89886 11887 . . . 17517 . . . 1806–10 474211 392196 294675 69394 95736 12621 . . . 1785 . . . 1801–05 392882 299000 205370 73888 103431 19994 . . . . . . 9801 1796–1800 346104 265536 149887 78530 108473 2038 . . . 7176 . . . 1791–95 254892 175538 82091 84399 108450 . . . 5045 . . . 15003 1786–90 227240 128428 38573 90915 94795 7897 . . . . . . 4940 1781–85 151640 71780 11685 92953 64919 . . . 13093 . . . 4824 1776–80 114730 34256 2383 83815 33036 . . . 3341 . . . 1163 1771–75 65016 10359 390 58972 11790 . . . 4315 . . . 1821 1766–70 31690 2191 41 30694 2768 . . . 1195 . . . 618 1761–65 10423 399 . . . 11270 397 . . . 1246 2 . . . 1756–60 2282 55 . . . 2781 25 . . . 554 30 . . . 1751–55 456 . . . . . . 463 . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . 1746–50 78 . . . . . . 28 . . . 50 . . . . . . . . . Age not . . . . . . . . . 908 . . . . . . 908 . . . . . . stated Totals 12184412 13674985 11058934 2138536 2459489 342279 72662 256733 100171 FEMALES. FEMALES. 1866–70 . . . 1936784 1534812 . . . 359329 . . . . . . 42643 . . . {23c} 1861–65 . . . 1814081 1355707 . . . 473449 . . . . . . . . . 15075 {23c} 1856–60 1681961 1345875 1203469 305511 172128 30575 . . . . . . 29722 {23c} 1851–55 1586949 1171106 1095699 419780 61093 . . . 3937 14314 . . . {23c} 1846–50 1171354 1045287 1052843 151062 66098 . . . 24995 . . . 73654 1841–45 1042131 974712 937299 60003 79459 7416 . . . . . . 42016 1836–40 949362 969283 813675 65106 81018 . . . 85027 74590 . . . 1831–35 883953 834877 700534 76754 79463 . . . 27678 54880 . . . 1826–30 871152 725088 639705 76237 77870 69827 . . . 7513 . . . 1821–25 771130 634262 546094 73309 76696 63559 . . . 11472 . . . 1816–20 658237 583069 488901 70730 75357 4438 . . . 18811 . . . 1811–15 555879 477530 372261 67174 77049 11175 . . . 28220 . . . 1806–10 494408 414367 328010 63923 84997 16118 . . . 1360 . . . 1801–05 406107 315004 235868 65030 97481 26073 . . . . . . 18345 1796–1800 362697 290704 174086 72028 108636 . . . 35 7982 . . . 1791–95 271395 201034 99896 82975 114233 . . . 12614 . . . 13095 1786–90 254070 152917 51265 93843 105704 7310 . . . . . . 4052 1781–85 175879 88860 17896 99612 78080 . . . 12593 . . . 7116 1776–80 135432 45403 4338 94274 43589 . . . 4245 . . . 2524 1771–75 81086 15608 855 71487 17466 . . . 6009 . . . 2713 1766–70 42150 3994 119 40514 4849 . . . 2358 . . . 974 1761–65 14982 839 . . . 16604 894 . . . 2461 . . . 55 1756–60 3969 146 . . . 4724 73 . . . 901 73 . . . 1751–55 874 . . . . . . 921 . . . . . . 47 . . . . . . 1746–50 137 . . . . . . 76 . . . 61 . . . . . . . . . Age not . . . . . . . . . 502 . . . . . . 502 . . . . . . stated Totals 12415294 14040830 11653332 2072179 2386011 236552 183402 261858 209371

TABLE IV.—Shewing the Female population in 1851, 1861, and 1871, as corrected upon certain hypotheses, the estimated births in 1851–70, the registered deaths, apportioned according to date of birth, after adjustment, and the loss or gain of inhabitants upon a balance of migrations.

Born in Population (corrected). Deaths registered. Loss or gain by migrations. FEMALES. FEMALES. 1851–60. 1861–70. 1851. 1861. 1871. 1851–60. 1861–70. Loss. Gain. Lose. Gain. {24b} 1866–70 . . . 1936784 1571448 . . . 359329 . . . . . . 6007 . . . {24a} 1861–65 . . . 1822952 1340794 . . . 473449 . . . . . . 8709 . . . {24a} 1856–60 1690145 1379277 1203469 305511 172128 5357 . . . 3680 . . . {24a} 1851–65 1586949 1157052 1094603 419780 61093 10117 . . . 1350 . . . {24a} 1846–50 1203052 1046332 981249 151062 66098 5658 . . . . . . 1015 1841–45 1028583 976661 898871 60003 79459 . . . 8081 . . . 1669 1836–40 954109 895618 809607 65106 81018 . . . 6015 4993 . . . 1831–35 887489 799812 711042 76754 79463 10923 . . . 9307 . . . 1826–30 804073 713486 624991 76237 77870 14350 . . . 10625 . . . 1821–25 736430 652021 567938 73309 76696 11100 . . . 7387 . . . 1816–20 645730 569658 488901 70730 75357 5342 . . . 5400 . . . 1811–15 573667 501406 421400 67174 77019 5087 . . . 2957 . . . 1806–10 483036 415610 328010 63923 84997 3503 . . . 2603 . . . 1801–05 426412 357844 258275 65030 98802 3538 . . . 767 . . . 1796–1800 364148 290704 177568 72028 112636 1416 . . . 500 . . . 1791–95 308305 222745 104192 84226 118269 1334 . . . 284 . . . 1786–90 254070 156434 49008 97626 107225 10 . . . 201 . . . 1781–85 195578 92680 17144 103438 70172 . . . 540 . . . 636 1776–80 138547 43269 4121 95728 39172 . . . 450 . . . 24 1771–75 84572 14952 641 69678 14330 . . . 58 . . . 19 1766–70 40043 3734 60 36401 3732 . . . 92 . . . 58 1761–65 14188 614 . . . 13613 617 . . . 39 . . . 3 1756–60 3671 56 . . . 3631 50 . . . 16 6 . . . 1751–55 629 . . . . . . 636 . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . 1746–50 52 . . . . . . 53 . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . Totals 12423478 14049701 11653332 2071677 2335011 77735 15899 64782 3424

TABLE V.—Shewing the degree of incorrectness of the returns of the ages of the female population, according to the hypotheses upon which Table IV is based.

1851. 1861. 1871. True Age. Returned at Returned Returned at Returned at Returned Returned at Returned at Returned Returned at next lower correctly. next higher next lower correctly. next higher next lower correctly. next higher age. age. age. age. age. age. 0–5 . . . 1171354 31698 . . . 1345875 33402 . . . 1534812 36636 5–10 . . . 1010433 18150 . . . 1137704 19348 . . . 1319071 21723 10–15 . . . 931212 22897 . . . 1025939 20393 . . . 1181746 21723 15–20 . . . 861056 26433 . . . 954319 22342 . . . 1073976 20627 20–25 . . . 804073 . . . . . . 895618 . . . . . . 981249 . . . 25–30 40646 695784 . . . 51323 748489 . . . 50967 847904 . . . 30–35 75346 570384 . . . 86388 627098 . . . 89395 720212 . . . 35–40 87853 485814 . . . 97990 554031 . . . 93463 617579 . . . 40–45 70065 412971 . . . 80231 489427 . . . 82955 542036 . . . 45–50 81437 344975 . . . 93642 407764 . . . 97669 470269 . . . 50–55 61132 303016 . . . 69766 345844 . . . 75825 413076 . . . 55–60 59681 248624 . . . 68523 289321 . . . 75325 345575 . . . 60–65 22771 231299 . . . 25683 265021 . . . 26686 301324 . . . 65–70 22771 172807 . . . 25683 197062 . . . 26686 231589 . . . 70–75 3072 135432 43 3972 152462 . . . 4279 173289 . . . 75–80 . . . 81043 3529 455 88860 3365 797 99896 3499 80–85 . . . 38621 1422 . . . 42038 1231 . . . 47766 1242 85–90 . . . 13560 628 . . . 14377 575 . . . 16654 490 90–95 . . . 3341 330 . . . 3419 315 . . . 3848 273 95–100 . . . 544 85 . . . 524 90 . . . 582 59 100– . . . 52 . . . . . . 56 . . . . . . 60 . . .

TABLE VI.—Shewing the Male population in 1851, 1861 and 1871, as corrected upon certain hypotheses; the estimated births in 1851–70; the registered deaths apportioned according to date of birth, after adjustment; and the loss or gain of inhabitants upon a balance of migrations.

Born in Population (Corrected.) Deaths Registered. Loss or gain by migrations. Males. Males. 1851–60. 1861–70. 1851. 1861. 1871. 1851–60. 1861–70. Loss. Gain. Loss. Gain. {25b} 1866–70 . . . 2006083 1572464 . . . 427200 . . . . . . 6419 . . . {25a} 1861–65 . . . 1892329 1335819 . . . 546170 . . . . . . 10340 . . . {25a} 1866–60 1758383 1388307 1218770 365536 180534 4540 . . . . . . 10997 {25a} 1851–55 1651656 1157960 1674713 482227 60259 11469 . . . 22988 . . . {25a} 1846–60 1208453 1057889 937917 156291 62499 . . . 5727 57473 . . . 1841–45 1030228 947930 843278 58497 75494 23801 . . . 29158 . . . 1836–40 960000 846210 751320 60004 75606 53786 . . . 19284 . . . 1831–35 868231 734287 644819 69604 74657 64340 . . . 14811 . . . 1826–30 784455 668690 580097 67451 77910 48314 . . . 10683 . . . 1821–25 696345 594280 506947 65694 81085 36371 . . . 6248 . . . 1816–20 624889 539058 447788 66739 84369 19092 . . . 6901 . . . 1811–15 535680 453310 357907 67483 89886 14887 . . . 5517 . . . 1806–10 458711 384196 284675 69394 95736 5121 . . . 3785 . . . 1801–05 389882 312000 217370 73888 104635 3994 . . . . . . 10005 1796–1800 334904 256136 150887 78530 111999 238 . . . . . . 6750 1791–95 273892 188538 83091 85504 111681 . . . 150 . . . 6234 1786–90 222840 129928 37173 94206 95445 . . . 1294 . . . 2690 1781–85 168040 73280 11235 96016 62880 . . . 1256 . . . 835 1776–80 116466 32356 2333 84496 29493 . . . 386 530 {25c} . . . 1771–75 66800 9509 314 57119 9550 172 . . . . . . 355 {25c} 1766–70 29493 2101 17 27390 2118 2 . . . . . . 34 1761–65 9412 274 . . . 9116 266 22 . . . 8 . . . 1756–60 2166 20 . . . 2114 17 32 . . . 3 . . . 1751–55 318 . . . . . . 310 . . . 8 . . . . . . . . . 1746–50 20 . . . . . . 19 . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . Totals 12191264 13674671 11058934 2137628 2459489 286190 8813 194148 37900

TABLE VII.—Shewing the degree of incorrectness of the returns of the ages of the Male population, according to the hypotheses upon which Table VI is based.