PART III.

SECT. I. _Abstract of the EXPORTS from, and IMPORTS to GREAT BRITAIN from 1697 to 1773, with Remarks._ 113

SECT. II. _Historical Deduction and Analysis of the Public Debts._ 119

SECT. III. _Of the DEBTS and RESOURCES of FRANCE._ 148

SECT. IV. _Remarks on the Earl of STAIR’S Account of the Public Income and Expenditure._ 156

_Resolution of a Committee of the ~American~ Congress in June 1775._ 175

_Published by the same Author_,

And printed for T. CADELL, in the Strand.

1. OBSERVATIONS on REVERSIONARY PAYMENTS; on Schemes for providing Annuities for Widows, and Persons in Old Age; on the Method of calculating the Values of Assurances on Lives; and on the National Debt. To which are added, Four Essays on different Subjects in the Doctrine of Life-Annuities and Political Arithmetic. Also, an Appendix, containing a complete Set of Tables; particularly four New Tables, shewing the Probabilities of Life in LONDON, NORWICH, and NORTHAMPTON, and the Values of two joint Lives.

The 3d Edition, with a Supplement, containing (besides several New Tables) additional Observations on the Probabilities of Human Life in different Situations; on the LONDON Societies for the Benefit of Widows and of Old Age; and on the present State of Population in this Kingdom. Price 6s.

II. A Review of the principal Questions and Difficulties in MORALS. Particularly, those relating to the Original of our Ideas of Virtue, its Nature, Foundation, Reference to the Deity, Obligation, Subject-matter, and Sanctions. The Second Edition corrected. Price 6s.

III. FOUR DISSERTATIONS.—I. On Providence.—II. On Prayer.—III. On the Reasons for expecting that virtuous Men shall meet after Death in a State of Happiness.—IV. On the Importance of Christianity, the Nature of Historical Evidence, and Miracles. The 4th Edition. Price 6s.

IV. An APPEAL to the PUBLIC, on the Subject of the NATIONAL DEBT. The 2d Edition; with an Appendix, containing Explanatory Observations and Tables; and an Account of the present State of Population in Norfolk, Price 2s.

V. OBSERVATIONS on the Nature of CIVIL LIBERTY, the Principles of GOVERNMENT, and the Justice and Policy of the WAR with AMERICA. To which is added an Appendix, containing a State of the National Debt, an Estimate of the Money drawn from the Public by the Taxes, and an Account of the National Income and Expenditure since the last War. The 7th Edition. Price 2s.

INTRODUCTION.

Before the reader enters on the following tract, I shall beg leave to detain him while I give a general account of the contents of it, and make a few introductory observations.

In the first part of the _Observations on Civil Liberty_, published last winter, I gave a brief account of the nature of Liberty in general, and of _Civil Liberty_ in particular. That account appears to me, after carefully reconsidering it, to be just; nor do I think it in my power to improve it. In order, however, to be as explicit as possible on this subject, and to remove those misapprehensions of my sentiments into which some have fallen, I have thought proper to add the _supplemental_ and _explanatory_ observations, which will be found in the FIRST part of this pamphlet.—In writing with this view, I have been led to refer often to my former pamphlet, and to repeat some of the observations in it. But as this could not have been avoided, it will, I hope, be excused.

The remarks in the SECOND part, I offer to the public with all the deference due to the high station and abilities of the noble Lord, whose speech at opening the Budget in _April_ last, has occasioned them.—These remarks, having been promised long ago, should have been published sooner. The reasons which have produced this delay are of little consequence to the public; and, therefore, need not be mentioned.

In the first section of this _second_ part, it will, I think, appear, that I went upon as good grounds as the nature of the case admitted, when I stated the gold coin[48] of the kingdom at ABOUT TWELVE MILLIONS AND A HALF. It appears now, indeed, to be some millions more. But this is a discovery made by the call of last summer; which, I find, has brought in near double the sum that the best judges expected. Nothing, however, very encouraging can be inferred from hence. It only shews that a great deal of gold has been hoarded; and will, probably, be again hoarded. This is the natural consequence of public diffidence; and it is a circumstance which may, hereafter, greatly increase distress. Before the REVOLUTION, according to Dr. _Davenant_, near half the coin was hoarded; and the same, undoubtedly, will be done again, whenever the nation comes to be thoroughly alarmed.

In the next section of this part, I have made some further observations on the contest with _America_.—I cannot expect any other than a tragical and deplorable issue to this contest. But let events turn out as they will, I shall always reflect with satisfaction, that I have, though a private person of little consequence, bore my testimony, from deep-felt conviction, against a war which must shock the feelings and the reason of every considerate person; a war in which rivers of blood must be shed, not to repel the attacks of enemies, or to maintain the authority of government _within_ the realm, but to maintain sovereignty and dominion in another world[49].—I wish the advocates for the measures against _America_ would attend to the distinction now intimated.—The support of just government _within_ the realm is always necessary, and therefore right. But to maintain, by fire and sword, dominion over the persons and the property of a people _out_ of the realm, who have no share in its legislature, contradicts every principle of liberty and humanity.—Legitimate government, let it be remembered, as opposed to oppression and tyranny, consists “only in the dominion of EQUAL LAWS made with COMMON CONSENT, or of men over THEMSELVES; and not in the dominion of communities over communities, or of ANY MEN OVER OTHER MEN.”—This is the great truth I have endeavoured to explain and defend; and happy would the world be, were a due conviction of it impressed on every human heart.

The representation I have given in this section and elsewhere, of the state of this kingdom, is, without doubt, gloomy. But it is not the effect, as some have intimated, of either a natural disposition to gloominess, or of sinister views. Few, who know me, will entertain such a suspicion. Valuing _most_ what politicians and statesmen generally value _least_, I feel myself perfectly easy with respect to my interest as a citizen of this world; nor is there any change of situation that can make me happier, except a return to privacy and obscurity. The opinion I have entertained of the present danger of the kingdom is, therefore, the effect of evidence which appears to me irresistible. This evidence I have stated to the public; and every one may judge of it as he pleases. I am sensible of my own liableness to error. The measures which I condemn as the worst that ever disgraced and hazarded a great kingdom, others, whose integrity I cannot question, approve; and that very situation of our affairs which I think alarming, others think prosperous. Time will determine which of these opinions is right. But supposing the latter to be so, no harm can arise from any representations which have a tendency to put us on our guard.

I have bestowed particular attention on the observations in the third section of this second part; and I think the subject of this section so important, that it is probable, I should not have resolved on the present publication, had it not been for the opportunity it gives me to lay the observations it contains before the public.—An intimation of them was given in the Introduction to the third edition of the Treatise on _Reversionary Payments_. The nation being now once more got into a course of borrowing; and our first step having been a return to a mode of borrowing, which had appeared to me absurd and detrimental, I was induced to resume the subject, and to examine it with more care. And the result of an examination of only a _part_ of the public loans, will be found to be, “that a capital of more than TWENTY MILLIONS has been a needless addition to the public debt, for which no money, or any sort of equivalent has been received; and which might have been avoided, together with a great expence of interest, by only forming differently the schemes of the public loans.”

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The intention of the first section of the THIRD PART is to give, in as short a compass as possible, a view of the progress of our _foreign trade_, and its effect on the nation, from the beginning of this century; and, particularly, to point out an unfavourable change which seems to have taken place since 1764.

In the second section of this part, an explanation and analysis are given of all the different articles of the national debt, which will probably inform every person of most that he can wish to know concerning them.—I have added a general account of the debts and resources of FRANCE. This is a subject at present particularly interesting to this country; and, having been informed of some important facts relating to it, I have thought proper to lay them before the public, with such reflexions as have offered themselves in mentioning them.

The last section contains such of the calculations in the APPENDIX to the _Observations on Civil Liberty_ as were necessary to be reprinted, in order to introduce the remarks I have added on some particulars in the state of the _public income and expenditure_, published not long ago by the _Earl of Stair_. I have also meant to accommodate the purchasers of the different editions of the _Observations on Civil Liberty_, who will be enabled, by this section, to possess themselves of all the material alterations and improvements which were made in that pamphlet after its first publication.—The accounts, in the latter part of this tract, are so various and extensive, that it is scarcely possible there should not be some incorrectnesses in them. But the pains I have taken, and the means of information which I have possessed have been such, that I cannot suspect that I have fallen into any mistakes of consequence. Should, however, any such have escaped me, it will be kind in any person to point them out with candour; and to assist in making those accounts so correct and perfect, as that they may serve for a basis to all future accounts of the same kind.

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The following note in Mr. _Hume_’s History of _England_ was written by him a little before his death, and left with other additions to be inserted in the new edition of that history just published. It contains, therefore, a kind of dying warning from Mr. _Hume_ to this kingdom; and I have thought proper to transcribe it, and to insert it in this place, as a confirmation of similar sentiments frequently expressed in these tracts.

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“The supplies granted Queen _Elizabeth_, during a reign of FORTY-FIVE YEARS, amounted to three millions. The minister, in the war which begun in 1754, was, in some periods, allowed to lavish a sum equal to this in TWO MONTHS. The extreme frivolous object of the late war, and the great importance of hers, set this matter in still a stronger light. Money too was in most particulars of the same value in both periods: she paid eight-pence a day to every foot soldier;—but our LATE DELUSIONS have much exceeded any thing known in history, not even excepting those of the Crusades. For, I suppose, there is no mathematical, still less an arithmetical demonstration, that the road to the holy land was not the road to Paradise; as there is, that the endless increase of national debt is the direct road to national ruin. But having now completely reached that goal, it is needless at present to reflect on the past. It will be found in the present year (1776) that all the revenues of this island, north of the _Trent_, and west of _Reading_, are mortgaged or anticipated for ever. Could the small remainder be in a worse condition, were these provinces seized by _Austria_ and _Prussia_? There is only this difference, that some event might happen in _Europe_, which would oblige those great monarchs to disgorge their acquisitions. But no imagination can figure a situation which will induce our creditors to relinquish their claims, or the public to seize their revenues.—So egregious, indeed, has been our folly, that we have even lost all title to compassion, under the numberless calamities that are waiting us.”—Mr. _Hume_’s History, vol. 5th, page 475.