CHAPTER X

BARGAINS ARE STRUCK

THE KAISER AND THE TSAR AGREE AT POTSDAM

During the early days of November, 1910, William II entertained at the Potsdam palace his fellow sovereign Nicholas II, Tsar of all the Russias. He extended his royal hospitality, also, to the recently chosen foreign ministers of Germany and Russia respectively—Herr von Kiderlen-Waechter, next to the ambassador at Constantinople the Kaiser’s most competent expert on the tortuous affairs of the Near East; and M. Sazonov, subsequently to guide Russian foreign policy during the critical days of July, 1914. It was apparent even to the untutored that there was some political significance to the conference between the German Emperor and his distinguished guests, and the press was rife with speculation as to what the outcome would be. The answer was forthcoming on November 4, when it was announced that the Kaiser and the Tsar, with the advice and assistance of their foreign ministers, had reached an agreement on the Bagdad Railway question.

A short time later the terms of this Potsdam Agreement were made public. As outlined by the German Chancellor, with some subsequent modifications, they were as follows: 1. Germany recognized the Russian sphere of interest in northern Persia, as defined by the Anglo-Russian agreement of 1907, and undertook not to seek or support concessions for railways, roads, telegraphs, or other means of communication in the region; in other words, there was to be no change in the _status quo_. 2. Russia recognized the rights of the _Deutsche Bank_ in the Bagdad Railway and agreed to withdraw all diplomatic opposition to the construction of the line and to the participation of foreign capital therein. 3. Russia agreed to obtain from Persia, as soon as possible, a concession for the construction of a railway from Teheran, the capital city, to Khanikin, an important commercial city on the Turco-Persian frontier. This new railway was to be linked with a branch of the Bagdad system to be constructed in accordance with the terms of the concession of 1903 from Sadijeh, on the Tigris, to Khanikin. Both lines were to be planned for through international traffic. If, for any reason, the Russian Government should fail to build the proposed railway from Teheran to Khanikin, it was understood that German promoters might then apply for the concession. 4. The policy of the economic open door was to be observed by both nations. Russia agreed not to discriminate against German trade in Persia, and the two nations pledged reciprocal equality of treatment on the new railway lines from Sadijeh to Teheran.[1]

Russia had a great deal to gain and little to lose by the Potsdam Agreement. Whether Russia liked it or not, the Bagdad Railway had become a going concern, and there was every indication that another decade would see its completion. When finished, the Bagdad system, together with projected Persian lines, would provide Russian trade with direct communications with the Indies (_via_ Bagdad and the Persian Gulf) and with the Mediterranean (_via_ Mosul, Aleppo, and the Syrian coast). By the entente of 1907 with Great Britain the Tsar had renounced his imperial interests in southern Persia; therefore he had little to gain by a dog-in-the-manger attitude toward the development of Mesopotamia by the Germans. Under these circumstances continued resistance to the Bagdad Railway appeared to be short-sighted and futile. Cheerful acquiescence, on the other hand, might bring tangible diplomatic compensations. In addition, it has been suggested, Russian reactionaries were delighted at the prospect of a _rapprochement_ with Prussia, in which they saw the last strong support of a dying autocracy.[2]

From the German point of view the agreement with Russia was a diplomatic triumph. All that Germany conceded was recognition of Russia’s special position in Persia, which affected no important German interests and exerted no appreciable influence on the balance of power in the Near East. In return, German trade was to be admitted to the markets of Persia, heretofore an exclusively British and Russian preserve; the sphere of the Bagdad Railway was to be considerably enlarged; Russian political obstruction of the Bagdad enterprise was to cease. Russian objections had been the first stumbling block in the way of the Railway; Russian protests had been the instigation of French opposition; now Russian recognition held out high promise for the final success of the Great Plan. The first breach had been made in the heretofore solid front presented by the Entente.[3]

Outside of Germany and Russia, however, the Potsdam Agreement met with a heated reception. The Ottoman press complained that Turkey was being politely ignored by two foreign powers in the disposition of her rights. One Constantinople daily said it was a sad commentary on Turkish “sovereignty” that in an important treaty on the Bagdad Railway “there is no mention of us, as if we had no connection with that line, and we were not masters of Bagdad and Basra and the ports of the Persian Gulf.”[4] M. Hanotaux, a former French minister of foreign affairs, expressed his belief that “the negotiations at Potsdam have created a situation which, from every point of view, obliges us to ask, now, if Russia has dissolved the Triple Entente.”[5] Mr. Lloyd George delivered a particularly venomous attack upon Russia for having disregarded her diplomatic engagements, and he announced in clarion tones that this desertion from the ranks of the Entente—even if condoned by France—would not cause Great Britain to alter one iota her former policy.[6] The “Slav peril” appeared to be more keenly appreciated, for the moment, in France and England than in Germany!

M. Jaurès, the brilliant French Socialist parliamentarian, believed that the Potsdam Agreement was an admirable instance of the menace of the Russian Alliance to the security of France and the peace of Europe. During the course of a bitter debate in the Chamber of Deputies he confronted the Minister of Foreign Affairs, M. Pichon, with this dilemma: “What is the situation in which you find yourself? You are going to be faced, you already are faced, with a _fait accompli_, a Russo-German convention on the Bagdad question. What do you propose to do? Well, you may pursue an independent course and continue to oppose the Bagdad Railway. In that event you will be in the unenviable position of opposing Germany in an enterprise to which Russia—whose interests are more directly involved—has given her support. Or, on the other hand, you may subscribe with good grace to this enterprise which Russia commends to you. What then will be your situation? For some years France has successfully resisted the Bagdad Railway. If during this time we have sulked at the enterprise, it was not of our own choice, but out of regard for Russia, because Russia believed her interests to be menaced. In short, we arrive at this paradox. You have created an extremely delicate situation between France and Germany by opposing the Bagdad Railway, in which you had no interests other than those of Russia. And now it is this same Russia which, without previously consulting you, places at the disposal of Germany the moral advantage of compelling you—you who resisted only on behalf of Russia—to accede to the Bagdad Railway.” Was this the sort of ally to whom France should entrust her national safety?[7]

In the midst of the storm over the Potsdam Agreement, M. Stephen Pichon and Sir Edward Grey alone appeared to be unruffled. Both of these gentlemen, interpolated in the Chamber of Deputies and the House of Commons respectively, averred that they saw no reason for becoming disturbed or alarmed at the new Russo-German understanding. This point of view was incomprehensible to the average citizen, unskilled in the niceties of professional diplomacy, until on January 31, 1911, M. Jaurès forced M. Pichon to admit that the French Foreign Office had been informed of the character of the Potsdam negotiations before they took place. Less than a month later Mr. Lloyd George severely criticized his fellow-minister Sir Edward Grey for having taken no action against the policy of Russia at Potsdam, although, as Foreign Secretary, Sir Edward had been fully posted on the nature of the negotiations. Apparently, then, Russia had come to the agreement with Germany only after having consulted France and Great Britain and, perhaps, after having received their consent.[8]

There were a few persons who hoped that the Potsdam Agreement might be the first step in a general settlement of the Bagdad Railway entanglement. One humble member of the House of Commons, Mr. Pickersgill, said, for example, “I cannot understand the policy of continued antagonism to Germany. Ex-President Roosevelt recently gave much good advice to our Foreign Minister, and amongst other things he said that the presence of Germany on the Euphrates would strengthen the position of Great Britain on the Nile.... The action of Russia in the recent meeting at Potsdam has brought matters to a head, and I hope the Foreign Office will approach Turkey with a view to an arrangement for the completion of the Bagdad Railway which might be agreeable to Turkey, Germany and ourselves.”[9]

The hope of Mr. Pickersgill was fulfilled, for the agreement of November 4, 1910, proved to be the first of a series of conventions regarding the Near East negotiated between 1911 and 1914 by Germany, Turkey, Great Britain and France. On the eve of the Great War the Bagdad Railway controversy had been all but settled!

FRENCH CAPITALISTS SHARE IN THE SPOILS

France, relieved of the necessity of supporting Russia’s strategic objections to the Bagdad Railway, was glad to compromise with Turkey—in return for compensatory concessions to French investors. The sharp rebuff given M. Pichon by the Young Turks in the loan negotiations of the spring and summer of 1910 had convinced French diplomatists and business men alike that a policy of bullying the new administration at Constantinople would be futile.[10] Continued obstruction of Ottoman economic rehabilitation could have but two effects: to injure French prestige and prejudice the interests of French business; to drive the Young Turks into still closer association with the German Government and still greater dependence upon German capitalists. On the other hand, a conciliatory policy might be rewarded by profitable participation of French bankers in the economic development of Turkey-in-Asia and by a revival of French political influence at the Sublime Porte.

Even before the negotiation of the Potsdam Agreement the Young Turks had smiled upon French financial interests in the hope that the French Government might adopt a more friendly attitude toward the new régime in Turkey. In June, 1910, for example, the Smyrna-Cassaba Railway was authorized to extend its existing line from Soma, in western Anatolia, to Panderma, on the Sea of Marmora. The concession carried with it the highest kilometric guarantee (18,800 francs) ever granted a railway in the Ottoman Empire, although the construction of the line offered fewer engineering and financial difficulties than other railways which had been constructed under less favorable terms. From the standpoint of the Turkish Government, however, the Soma-Panderma railway offered economic and strategic returns commensurate with the investment, for it was part of a comprehensive plan for the improvement of commercial and military communications in Asia Minor.[11]

The acceptance of this concession by French capitalists—presumably with the approval, certainly without the opposition, of their Government—was an interesting commentary on the official attitude of the French Republic toward the Bagdad Railway. If it was unprincipled for Germans to accept a guarantee for the construction and operation of their railways in Turkey, it is difficult to ascertain what dispensation exempted Frenchmen from the same stigma. If the Anatolian and Bagdad systems were anathema because of their possible utilization for military purposes, little justification can be offered for the Soma-Panderma line, which, completed in 1912, was one of the principal factors in the stubborn defence of the Dardanelles three years later.

Shortly after the promulgation of the Soma-Panderma convention additional steps were taken by the Ottoman Government toward the further extension of French railway interests in Anatolia and Syria. Negotiations were initiated with the Imperial Ottoman Bank for the award to a French-owned company, _La Société pour la Construction et l’Exploitation du Réseau de la Mer Noire_, of a concession for a comprehensive system of railways in northern Anatolia. It was proposed to construct elaborate port works at the Black Sea towns of Heraclea, Samsun, and Trebizond, and to connect the new ports by railway with the inland towns of Erzerum, Sivas, Kharput, and Van. Connections were to be established at Boli and Sivas with extensions to the Anatolian Railways, and at Arghana with a branch of the Bagdad line to Nisibin and Diarbekr. Thus adequate rail communications would be provided from the Ægean to the Persian Gulf, from the Black Sea to the Syrian shore of the Mediterranean.[12]

Simultaneously, negotiations were being carried on between the Ottoman Ministry of Public Works and the Imperial Ottoman Bank for extensive concessions to the French Syrian Railways, owned and operated by _La Société du Chemin de Fer de Damas-Hama et Prolongements_. Provision was made for the construction of port and terminal facilities at Jaffa, Haifa, and Tripoli-in-Syria; a traffic agreement was negotiated with the Ottoman-owned Hedjaz Railway, pledging both parties to abstain from discriminatory rates and other unfair competition; tentative arrangements were made for the construction of a line from Homs to the Euphrates. Provisional agreements embodying the Black Sea and Syrian railway and port concessions were signed in 1911, but technical difficulties of surveying the lines, together with the political instability occasioned by the Tripolitan and Balkan Wars, postponed the definitive contract.[13]

After the Treaty of Bucharest, August 10, 1913, the Ottoman Government was more determined than ever to do everything in its power to eliminate French opposition to railway construction in Asia Minor and to secure French aid in the further economic development of Turkey. Crushing defeats at the hands of the Italians and the Balkan states had emphasized the deficiencies of Ottoman communications, Ottoman economic and military organization, Ottoman financial resources. The national treasury, emptied by the drain of three wars, needed replenishment by an increase in the customs duties, to which French sanction would have to be obtained, and by a foreign loan, for which it was hoped French bankers would submit a favorable bid. All of these questions were so closely associated with the question of political influence in the Near East, however, that it was obviously desirable to arrive at some _modus vivendi_ between French and German interests in Ottoman railways and in Ottoman financial affairs. Accordingly, the Young Turk Government prevailed upon the Imperial Ottoman Bank and the _Deutsche Bank_ to discuss a basis for a Franco-German agreement, and Djavid Bey was despatched to Paris to conduct whatever negotiations might be necessary with the French Government.

On August 19 and 20 and September 24, 25, 26, 1913, a series of important meetings was held in Berlin to ascertain upon what terms French and German investments in Turkey might be apportioned with the least possibility of conflict. German interests were represented by Dr. von Gwinner and Dr. Helfferich; the chief of the French negotiators were Baron de Neuflize, a Regent of the Bank of France, and M. de Klapka, Secretary-General of the Imperial Ottoman Bank. Supposedly the conferences were conducted only between the interested financiers, but the discussions were participated in by representatives of the French, German, and Ottoman foreign offices. Obstacles which, at the start, seemed insurmountable were overcome at the Berlin meetings and a series of minor conferences which followed. The result was one of the most important international agreements of the years immediately preceding the Great War—the secret Franco-German convention of February 15, 1914. The terms of this agreement, heretofore unpublished, may be summarized as follows:[14]

1. Northern Anatolia was recognized as a sphere of French influence for purposes of railway development. Arrangements were concluded for linking the Anatolian and Bagdad systems with the proposed Black Sea Railways, and traffic agreements satisfactory to all of the companies were ratified and appended to the convention. It was agreed that the port and terminal facilities at Heraclea should be constructed by a Franco-German company.

2. Syria, likewise, was recognized as a French sphere of influence. In particular, the right of the Syrian Railways to construct a line from Tripoli-in-Syria to Deir es Zor, on the Euphrates, was confirmed. A traffic agreement between the Bagdad and Syrian companies was ratified and appended to the convention.

3. The regions traversed by the Anatolian and Bagdad Railways were defined as a German sphere of influence. A neutral zone was established in Northern Syria to avoid infringement upon German or French rights in that region.

4. The _Deutsche Bank_ and the Imperial Ottoman Bank each pledged itself to respect the concessions of the other, to seek no railway concessions within the sphere of influence of the other, and to do nothing, directly or indirectly, to hinder the construction or exploitation of the railway lines of the other in Asiatic Turkey.

5. It was agreed that appropriate diplomatic and financial measures should be taken to bring about an increase in the revenues of the Ottoman Empire, sufficient, at least, to finance all of the projected railways, both French and German. Construction of the lines already authorized, or to be authorized, should be pursued, as far as possible, _pari passu_, each group to receive subsidies from the Ottoman Treasury in about the same proportion.

6. The _Deutsche Bank_ agreed to repurchase from the Imperial Ottoman Bank all of the latter’s shares and debentures of the Bagdad Railway and its subsidiary enterprises, amounting to Fr. 69,400,000. Payment was to be made in like value of Imperial Ottoman bonds of the Customs Loan of 1911, Second Series, which had been underwritten by a German syndicate.

Certain observations should be made regarding the character of this convention, if its full significance is to be appreciated. It was an agreement between two great financial groups in France and Germany; as such it was signed by M. Sergent, Sub-Governor of the Bank of France; M. de Klapka, Secretary-General of the Imperial Ottoman Bank; and Dr. Karl Helfferich, Managing Director of the _Deutsche Bank_. In addition, it was an understanding between the Governments of France and Germany; as such it was signed by M. Ponsot, of the French Embassy in Berlin, and by Herr von Rosenberg, of the German Foreign Office. A speech of Chancellor von Bethmann-Hollweg to the Reichstag, December 9, 1913, acknowledged the official character of the negotiations being conducted by the French and German bankers. That the French Government considered the convention a binding international agreement is made perfectly clear by a despatch of Baron Beyens, Belgian Minister in Berlin, to M. Davignon, Belgian Minister of Foreign Affairs, February 20, 1914, in which the attention of the Belgian Government is officially called to the existence of the convention.[15] The agreement, furthermore, was acceptable to the Ottoman Government, for the Sultan promptly confirmed the concessions for the new Black Sea and Syrian lines and for the necessary extensions to the Anatolian Railways. Much has been written about governmental support of investors in foreign countries, but, so far as the author has been able to ascertain, this is the first instance in which a financial pact and an international agreement have been combined in one document. No longer are treaties negotiated by diplomatists alone, but by diplomatists and bankers!

From the standpoint of the French interests involved, the February convention of 1914 was an eminently satisfactory settlement of the Bagdad Railway controversy. French capitalists secured concessions for more than 2,000 miles of railways in Asiatic Turkey, thus eliminating the danger of eventual German control of all communications in the Ottoman Empire. The Imperial Ottoman Bank was relieved of the risk of carrying an investment of almost seventy million francs in the Bagdad enterprise—an investment which had been a “frozen asset” because of the persistent refusal of the French Government to admit the Bagdad securities to the Bourse. In return, the Bank received a large block of Imperial Ottoman bonds, which were readily negotiable and which materially increased French influence in the Ottoman Public Debt Administration. Furthermore, as a result of a tacit agreement with the _Deutsche Bank_, the Imperial Ottoman Bank was awarded the Imperial Ottoman Five Per Cent Loan of 1914, amounting to $100,000,000, upon terms affording a handsome profit to the underwriters.[16] As for the French Government, it was enabled to emerge gracefully from the difficult situation in which it found itself after the Potsdam Agreement. France no longer was obliged to pursue a purely Russian policy in the Near East, for the Tsar’s Government—in addition to withdrawing its objections to German railways in Asiatic Turkey—gave its consent to the construction of the French Black Sea Railways with the sole proviso that the system should not be completed in its entirety until Russia had constructed certain strategic railways necessary to assure the safety of the Caucasus frontier.[17]

German diplomacy, on the other hand, had strengthened its position in the Near East by securing definite recognition of central and southern Anatolia, northern Syria and Mesopotamia as German spheres of interest. German financiers acquired exclusive control of the Bagdad enterprise and were assured that there would be no further obstruction of their plans by the French Government. The French promise to coöperate in improving the financial situation in Turkey meant that funds would be forthcoming for continued construction of uncompleted sections of the Bagdad Railway. The Young Turks were delighted at the prospect that the Powers might finally consent to the much-needed increase in the customs duties. They were no less delighted to know that railway construction in Asia Minor—which held out so much promise for the economic development and the political stability of the country—was to go on unimpeded by Franco-German rivalry and antagonism.[18]

There was some harsh criticism in Great Britain, however, of the advantages which France had obtained for herself in the Ottoman Empire. Sir Mark Sykes, an eminent student of Near Eastern affairs, believed that the new state of affairs was worse than the old. Speaking in the House of Commons, March 18, 1914, he warned the Foreign Office that “the policy of French financiers will produce eventually the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.... Take the proposed loan arranged with the French Government, for something over £20,000,000. In order to get this there are concessions which I cannot help feeling are more brazen and more fatal than any I have seen. The existing railways in Syria meander for miles to avoid legitimate profits in order to extort a guarantee. Alongside these railways you can see the merchants’ merchandise and the peasants’ produce rotting because the railway people do not trouble to warehouse the stuff or to shift it. They have got their guarantee, and they do not care. These concessions, which have been extracted from Turkey, mean a monopoly of all Syrian transit; and, further, a native press is to be subventioned practically in the interest of these particular monopolies.... In practice, loans, kilometric guarantees, monopolies, and a financed native press must, whether the financiers desire it or not, pave the way to annexation. I submit that this is not the spirit of the _entente_. The British people did not stand by the French people at Agadir to fill the pockets of financiers whose names are unknown outside Constantinople or the Paris Bourse.... The Ottoman Empire is shaken, and the cosmopolitan financier is now staking out the land into spheres of interest. An empire may survive disaster, but it cannot survive exploitation. A country like Turkey, without legislative capacity, without understanding what the economics of Europe mean and at the same time rich, is a lamb for the slaughter.”[19]

This trenchant criticism of French policy might have been taken more seriously had Great Britain herself been actuated by magnanimous impulses. Instead, British financiers were joining the common scramble for concessions, and British statesmen were pursuing with ruthless avidity every means of protecting British imperial interests.

THE YOUNG TURKS CONCILIATE GREAT BRITAIN

The Bagdad negotiations of 1910–1911 between Sir Ernest Cassel and Dr. von Gwinner, on the one hand, and the British and Ottoman Governments, on the other, came to naught, it will be recalled, because of the refusal of Sir Edward Grey to consent to an increase in the Turkish customs duties. The Sublime Porte was unwilling to grant the economic concessions demanded by Great Britain as the price of her assistance in Ottoman financial stabilization. But the Young Turks were shrewd enough to keep the door open for further negotiations by removing the chief political objection of England to the Bagdad enterprise—namely, that it menaced British imperial interests in the region of the Persian Gulf. In the convention of March 21, 1911, with the Bagdad Railway Company, the Ottoman Government reserved to itself considerable latitude in the disposition of the sections of the line beyond Bagdad.[20]

Conversations were resumed in July, 1911, when the Turkish minister in London solicited of the Foreign Office a further statement of the conditions upon which British objections to the Bagdad Railway might be waived. He was informed that English acquiescence might be forthcoming if the Bagdad-Basra section of the railway were constructed by a company in which British, French, German, Russian, and Turkish capital should share equally; if adequate guarantees were obtained regarding the protection of British imperial interests in southern Mesopotamia and Persia; if English capital were granted important navigation rights on the Shatt-el-Arab, including complete exemption of British ships and British goods from Ottoman tolls; if safeguards were provided against discriminatory and differential tariffs on the Bagdad system.

These proposals met with only partial acceptance by the Ottoman Government. Turkey was willing to internationalize the southernmost sections of the Bagdad Railway, but under no circumstances would she permit Russian participation in an enterprise which was so vital to the defence of the Sultan’s Empire. Turkey was prepared to discuss with England measures for the protection of legitimate British interests in the Middle East, provided there be no further infringement on the sovereign rights of the Sultan in southern Mesopotamia. Turkey agreed that the principle of the economic open door should be scrupulously observed throughout the Ottoman Empire; therefore she could not agree to discriminatory treatment in favor of British commerce on the Shatt-el-Arab, the Tigris, and the Euphrates. Upon these conditions the Ottoman minister at London was authorized to continue negotiations in the most friendly spirit.[21]

The Agadir crisis, which threatened war between England and Germany, and the Tripolitan War, which diverted Turkish attention from domestic reform to defence of the Empire, unfortunately led to a suspension of the Anglo-Turkish conversations. They were not resumed until 1913, when Turkey found a breathing spell between the first and second phases of the First Balkan War.

During the interim, however, steps were taken to remove the obstacles which stood in the way of an Anglo-German understanding. In February, 1912, Lord Haldane visited Berlin as the guest of the Kaiser to discuss curtailment of the naval programs of the two Powers and to agree upon other measures which would effect a _rapprochement_ between _Wilhelmstrasse_ and Downing Street. As regards the Bagdad Railway, Lord Haldane informed the German Government that he stood upon the position he had taken in 1907—that Great Britain was prepared to grant its consent to the enterprise if British political interests in Mesopotamia were adequately safeguarded.[22] A few months later, Baron Marschall von Bieberstein—who for fifteen years had guided Germany’s destiny in the Near East—was transferred from Constantinople to the embassy at London, as the first step in an attempt to reconcile British imperial interests with German diplomatic hegemony in Turkey. Almost simultaneously, Sir Harry Johnston, whose enthusiasm for German ventures in Asia Minor has already been mentioned,[23] began a quasi-official lecture tour in Germany to urge a sane settlement of the Near Eastern tangle. Another important development was the appointment as German Minister of Foreign Affairs, in January, 1913, of Herr von Jagow, who believed that a great European war was inevitable unless England and Germany could come to terms on the Turkish question.[24]

In this manner the stage was set for a resumption of Anglo-Turkish conversations on the Bagdad Railway. In February, 1913, Hakki Pasha, minister plenipotentiary and extraordinary of the Ottoman Government, arrived in London with instructions to leave no stone unturned to settle outstanding differences with Great Britain. For almost four months Hakki Pasha and Sir Edward Grey discussed the problems of the Near East and conferred with Herr von Kühlmann and Prince Lichnowsky, of the German embassy at London, regarding the general terms of a tripartite settlement of the economic and political questions at issue. In May, 1913, a full agreement was reached upon the following wide range of subjects: regularization of the legal position in Turkey of British religious, educational, and medical institutions; pecuniary claims of Great Britain against the Ottoman Empire; the Turkish veto on the borrowing powers of Egypt; Turco-Persian boundary disputes, particularly in so far as they affected oil lands; navigation of the Tigris, Euphrates, and Shatt-el-Arab; irrigation of the Mesopotamian valley; the status of Koweit. The settlements agreed upon were ratified by a series of treaties between Great Britain and Turkey, notably those of July 29, and October 21, 1913, and of June, 1914. Reconciliation of British and German interests was reserved for discussion between London and Berlin.[25]

In so far as concerned the Bagdad Railway, the substance of the Anglo-Turkish agreements of 1913 is as follows:

1. Turkey recognized the special position of Great Britain in the region of the Persian Gulf. Therefore, although Great Britain acknowledged the suzerainty of the Sultan over Koweit, the Ottoman Government pledged a policy of non-interference in the affairs of the principality. The existing treaties between the Sheik and Great Britain were confirmed.

2. The terminus of the Bagdad Railway was to be Basra, unless and until Great Britain should give consent to an extension of the line to the Persian Gulf.

3. In order to assure equality of treatment for all, regardless of nationality or other considerations, the Ottoman Government agreed that two British citizens should be elected to the Board of Directors of the Bagdad Railway Company.

4. Exclusive rights of navigation by steamers and barges on the Tigris, Euphrates, and Shatt-el-Arab were granted to the Ottoman River Navigation Company, to be formed by Baron Inchcape, chairman of the Peninsular and Oriental and the British India Steam Navigation Companies. The Navigation Company, in which Turkish capital was to be offered a fifty per cent participation, was to have wide powers for the improvement and regulation of all navigable streams in Mesopotamia, in cooperation with a commission to be appointed by the Ottoman Government. Lord Inchcape’s concession was for a period of sixty years, with optional renewals for ten-year periods.

5. It was agreed, however, that the Bagdad Railway and Inchcape concessions were without prejudice to the rights of the Lynch Brothers, which were specifically reaffirmed. The Lynch Brothers, in fact, were granted the privilege of adding another steamer to their equipment, with the single restriction that it fly the Turkish flag.

6. The British Government agreed that no navigation rights of its nationals would be construed as permitting interference with the development of Mesopotamia by irrigation, and the Ottoman Government guaranteed that no irrigation works would be permitted to divert navigable streams from their course.

7. In return for these, and other, assurances and concessions, Great Britain consented to support an increase of 4% in the customs duties of the Ottoman Empire.

The terms of this settlement were hailed by the English press as an admirable solution of the Mesopotamian imbroglio. _The Times_ of May 17, 1913, for example, said: “Great Britain will have no further reason for looking askance at a project which should do much for the development of Asiatic Turkey. Our interests will be safeguarded; we have always said that a terminus at Basra offered no menace to specific British interests in the Persian Gulf; and the German promoters will be free to complete their great project with the benevolent acquiescence of Great Britain. There will be no official participation in the construction of the line, but there will also be nothing to deter British capital from being associated with the scheme. We believe that if some such solution is adopted, a fertile source of international misunderstanding will disappear. It is a solution which should receive the approval of France and Russia and should give gratification to Germany. It appears to leave no room for subsequent differences of opinion, while it wipes out a whole series of obscure disputes. It will be a further demonstration of that spirit of coöperation among the Great Powers which has done so much of late to preserve the peace of Europe. It should convince Germany that Great Britain does not oppose the essential elements of the Bagdad Railway scheme provided her own special interests are protected. Above all, it will relieve the financial disabilities of Turkey and will enable her to press forward the great task of binding with bonds of steel the great Asiatic territories in which her future chiefly lies.” Other press opinion was in accord with Sir Edward Grey that the agreement “justifies us in saying that it is no longer in British interests to oppose the line.”[26]

In Germany, likewise, the Anglo-Turkish agreement was favorably received. The _Berliner Tageblatt_ of December 29, 1913, hailed it as a triumph of German diplomacy. “For years,” it said, “this undertaking has threatened to become a bone of contention between Russia, England, and Germany. The German Government has now, through its cleverness and tenacity, succeeded in removing all differences and in bringing the line altogether into German possession.” In the Reichstag, as well, the general tenor of the comments was favorable, although Herr Bassermann and other National Liberals were somewhat vociferous about the great “sacrifices” which Germany had made to propitiate Great Britain. Among the Social Democrats and the Centrists, however, the sentiment was obviously in accord with one member who said, “We share the general satisfaction at this _rapprochement_, which is an aid to world peace, but we also are of the opinion that there is no occasion for over-exuberance or patriotic bombast.”[27]

As usual, the rôle of the Turks themselves was slighted. A casual observer might have remarked that whatever “benevolent acquiescence” was included in the settlement originated in Constantinople rather than in London, and that the “sacrifices” involved were much more painful to Turkey than to Germany!

BRITISH IMPERIAL INTERESTS ARE FURTHER SAFEGUARDED

In the Speech from the Throne, February 10, 1914, King George V informed Parliament that the Near Eastern question was approaching a solution. “My relations with foreign Powers continue to be friendly,” he said. “I am happy to say that my negotiations, both with the German Government and the Ottoman Government as regards matters of importance to the commercial and industrial interests of this country in Mesopotamia are rapidly approaching a satisfactory issue.” Nothing was said to indicate the character of the negotiations or to identify the “commercial and industrial interests” which were the objects of royal solicitude.

Before the British Government would give its consent to a final agreement with Turkey and Germany regarding the Bagdad Railway, the King might have added, it was determined to acquire for certain worthy Britons a share in some of the choicest economic plums in the Ottoman Empire. Heading the interests which were thus to be favored was the Right Honorable James Lyle Mackay, Baron Inchcape of Strathnaver, who had been the beneficiary of the aforementioned Mesopotamian navigation concession of July, 1913. Lord Inchcape is perhaps the foremost shipping magnate in the British Empire. He is chairman and managing director of the Peninsular and Oriental and the British India Steam Navigation Companies; chairman and director of the Australasian United Steam Navigation Company and the Eastern and Australian Steamship Company; a director of the Steamship Owners’ Coal Association, the Australasia and China Telegraph Company, the Marine Insurance Company, the Central Queensland Meat Export Company, and various other commercial enterprises. He is a vice-president of the Suez Canal Company. He has extensive interests in the petroleum industry as a director of the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, Scottish Oils, Ltd., and the D’Arcy Exploration Company.

Lord Inchcape’s interests were given ample consideration in the Anglo-German negotiations of 1914. On February 23, a contract was signed at London between the Bagdad Railway Company and Lord Inchcape, the signatures to which were witnessed by Herr von Kühlmann, of the German embassy, and Sir Eyre Crowe, of the British Foreign Office. Under the terms of this contract the Bagdad Railway Company acknowledged the monopolistic privileges in Mesopotamian river navigation conferred upon Lord Inchcape’s interests by the Ottoman Government; agreed to cancel its outstanding engagements with the Lynch Brothers for the transportation of railway materials between Basra and points along the Tigris; and guaranteed Lord Inchcape a minimum amount of 100,000 tons of freight, at a figure of 22–1/2 shillings per ton, in the transportation on the Tigris of supplies for the construction of the Bagdad Railway and its subsidiary enterprises.[28]

This contract was so obviously in contravention of earlier rights of the Lynch Brothers, which had been specifically reaffirmed by the negotiations with Turkey, that it was amended by an agreement of March 27, 1914, between Lord Inchcape, Mr. John F. Lynch, and the Bagdad Railway Company. The latter arrangement provided: 1. That Lord Inchcape should immediately organize the Ottoman Navigation Company to take over the concession of July, 1913, and the rights conferred upon Lord Inchcape by his agreement of February 23, 1914, with the Bagdad Railway Company; 2. That the Lynch Brothers should be admitted to participation in the new Navigation Company and that Mr. John F. Lynch should be elected a director thereof; 3. That the Bagdad Railway should assign to a new Ottoman Ports Company—in which Mr. Lynch and Lord Inchcape should be granted a 40% participation—all of the rights of the Railway to the construction of port and terminal facilities at Bagdad and Basra; 4. That the Bagdad Railway Company should be granted a 20% participation in the new Ottoman Navigation Company. Thus were Lord Inchcape’s powerful interests further propitiated! Thus did the Lynch Brothers cease to be big fish in a small pond, to become small fish in a big lake!

Measures were now taken to protect another vested interest, the British-owned Smyrna-Aidin Railway Company. On March 26, a draft agreement, subsequently confirmed as part of the Anglo-German convention of June 15, was executed by Dr. Carl Bergmann, of the Bagdad Railway Company, and Lord Rathmore, of the Smyrna-Aidin Company. It provided for important extensions of over 200 miles to the existing Smyrna-Aidin line (including a junction with the Anatolian-Bagdad system at Afiun Karahissar), granted to British interests valuable navigation rights on the lakes of Asia Minor, and protected each railway from discriminatory treatment at the hands of the other. This settlement was approved by Herr von Kühlmann, on behalf of the German Government; Mr. Alwyn Parker, of the British Foreign Office; and Hakki Pasha, minister plenipotentiary of the Sultan to the Court of St. James.[29]

Oil—the magic word which has become the open sesame of so many diplomatic mysteries—was of no inconsiderable importance in 1914. Early in that eventful year the British Government—in order to insure an uninterrupted supply of fuel to the fleet—had purchased a controlling interest in the Anglo-Persian Oil Company. As a necessary step in the negotiations regarding Turkish oilfields the German Government was obliged, in March, 1914, to recognize southern Mesopotamia, as well as central and southern Persia, as the exclusive field of operations of the Anglo-Persian Company, and, in addition, to agree to the construction of a railway from Kut-el-Amara to Mendeli for the purpose of facilitating petroleum shipments. Thereupon an Anglo-German syndicate organized the Turkish Petroleum Company for the acquisition and exploitation of the oil resources of the vilayets of Mosul and Bagdad. Half of the stock of the new company was assigned to the National Bank of Turkey (controlled by Sir Ernest Cassel) and the D’Arcy group (in which Lord Inchcape was interested); one quarter was assigned to the Royal Dutch Company, and the remainder was reserved for the _Deutsche Bank_. Upon joint representations by the British and German ambassadors at the Sublime Porte, the Sultan, in June, 1914, conferred upon the Turkish Petroleum Company exclusive rights of exploitation of the oil resources of the Mesopotamian valley from Mosul to Bagdad.[30]

The vested interests of certain of its citizens having thus been amply protected, the British Government proceeded to complete its negotiations with the German ambassador in London. On June 15, 1914, Sir Edward Grey and Prince Lichnowsky initialed an important convention regarding the delimitation of English and German interests in Asiatic Turkey. The following day _The Times_ announced that the terms of an Anglo-German agreement had been incorporated in a draft treaty, and on June 29, Sir Edward Grey informed the House of Commons that formal ratification of the convention was being postponed only “until Turkey and Germany have completed their own separate negotiations.” By mid-July all was in readiness for the definitive signing of the treaty, but the widening importance of the Austro-Serbian dispute and the outbreak of the Great War put an end to the Bagdad Railway conversations.[31]

The terms of the convention of June 15, 1914—which might have meant so much to the future of Anglo-German relations—constituted a complete settlement of the controversy which had waged for more than ten years over German railway construction in the Mesopotamian valley. The reconciliation of the divergent interests of the two Powers was based upon the following considerations:[32]

1. “In recognition of the general importance of the Bagdad Railway in international trade” the British Government bound itself not “to adopt or to support any measures which might render more difficult the construction or management of the Bagdad Railway by the Bagdad Railway Company or to prevent the participation of capital in the enterprise.” Great Britain further agreed that under no circumstances would it “undertake railway construction on Ottoman territory in direct competition with lines of the Bagdad Railway Company or in contravention of existing rights of the Company or support the efforts of any persons or companies directed to this end,” unless in accord with the expressed wishes of the German Government.

2. His Britannic Majesty’s Government pledged itself to support an increase in the customs duties of the Ottoman Empire from 11% to 15% _ad valorem_ and, furthermore, to “raise no objection to the assignment to the Bagdad Railway Company of already existing Turkish State revenues, or of revenues from the intended increase in tariff duties, or of the proposed monopolies or taxes on the consumption of alcohol, petroleum, matches, tinder, cigarette-paper, playing cards, and sugar to the extent necessary for the completion of the Railway.“

3. The terminus of the Bagdad Railway was to be Basra. Both of the signatory Powers declared that under no circumstances would they “support the construction of a branch from Basra or any other point on the main line of the Bagdad Railway to the Persian Gulf, unless a complete understanding be previously arrived at between the Imperial Ottoman, the Imperial German, and His Britannic Majesty’s Governments.” The German Government furthermore pledged itself under no circumstances to “undertake the construction of a harbor or a railway station on the Persian Gulf or support efforts of any persons or companies directed toward that end, unless a complete agreement be previously arrived at with His Britannic Majesty’s Government.”

4. The German Government undertook to see that “on the lines of the Bagdad Railway Company, as hitherto, no direct or indirect discrimination in transit facilities or freight rates shall be made in the transportation of goods of the same kind between the same places, either on account of ownership or on account of origin or destination of the goods or because of any other consideration.” In other words, the German Government agreed to enforce Articles 24 and 25 of the Specifications of March 5, 1903, which provided that “all rates, whether they be general, special, proportional, or differential, shall be applicable to all shippers and passengers without distinction,” and which prohibited the Company to enter into any agreement for the purpose of granting reductions in the rates announced in its published tariffs.

5. In order further to protect British interests the German Government assumed responsibility for the election to the Board of Directors of the Bagdad Railway Company of “two English members acceptable to His Britannic Majesty’s Government.”

6. Both Powers pledged themselves unreservedly to observe the principle of the economic open door in the operation of railway, ports, irrigation, and navigation enterprises in Turkey-in-Asia.

7. Great Britain recognized German interests in the irrigation of the Cilician plain, and Germany recognized British interests in the irrigation of the lower Mesopotamian valley.

8. Both signatory Powers took cognizance of and agreed to observe the Anglo-Turkish agreement of July, 1913, conferring important navigation rights in Mesopotamia upon British subjects; the agreements between Lord Inchcape and the Bagdad Railway Company, regarding navigation and port and terminal facilities on the Tigris and Euphrates; the agreement between the Smyrna-Aidin Railway and the Bagdad Railway regarding important extensions to the former line.

9. Great Britain and Germany agreed to “use their good offices with the Imperial Ottoman Government to the end that the Shatt-el-Arab shall be brought into a satisfactory navigable condition and permanently maintained in such condition, so that ocean-going ships may always be assured of free and easy access to the port of Basra, and, further, that the shipping on the Shatt-el-Arab shall always be open to ocean-going ships under the same conditions to ships of all nations, regardless of the nationality of the ships or their cargo.”

10. It was agreed, finally, that any differences of opinion resulting from the convention or its appended documents should be subject to arbitration. If the signatory Powers were unable to agree upon an arbitrator or a special court of arbitration, the case was to be submitted to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague.

From both the German and the British points of view the foregoing convention was an admirable solution of the Turkish problem. Had the agreement been reached ten years earlier, it might have avoided estrangement between the two nations. Had it come at almost any other time than on the eve of the Great War, it would have been a powerful stimulus to an Anglo-German _rapprochement_.

Germany, it is true, was obliged to abandon any hope of establishing a port on the Persian Gulf. But there were grave uncertainties that Koweit could ever be developed as a commercially profitable terminus for the Bagdad Railway, whereas its very possession by a German company would have been a constant source of irritation to Great Britain. Basra, on the other hand, had obvious advantages. Like many of the great harbors of the world—Hamburg, Bremen, Antwerp, London, New York—it was on a river, rather than the open sea; and inasmuch as Great Britain had agreed that the freedom of the open sea should be applied to the Shatt-el-Arab, German ships were assured unrestricted access to the southern terminus of the Bagdad Railway. In return for surrendering the Basra-Persian Gulf section of the Bagdad system and for admitting British capitalists to participation in the Bagdad and Basra ports company, Germany received full recognition of her economic rights in Anatolia, Syria, and northern Mesopotamia, together with a minor share in Lord Inchcape’s navigation enterprises and in the newly formed Turkish Petroleum Company. Above all, British opposition to the Bagdad Railway, which had been so stubbornly maintained since 1903, was to be a thing of the past. For these considerations Germany could well afford to accept a subordinate place in southern Mesopotamia and to recognize British interests in the Persian Gulf.

Great Britain gained even more than Germany. She abandoned her policy of obstruction of the Bagdad Railway and consented to an increase in the customs duties of the Ottoman Empire. These considerations had never been ends in themselves, but rather pawns in the great game of diplomacy, to be surrendered in return for other valuable considerations. For them England secured guarantees of equality of treatment for British citizens and British goods on the German railway lines in Turkey. In addition, English capitalists received a monopoly of navigation on the Tigris and Euphrates, a 40% interest in port and terminal facilities at Bagdad and Basra, control of the oil resources of the Mesopotamian valley, extensions to British-owned railways in southern Anatolia, and other valuable economic concessions. British political control was recognized as dominant in southern Mesopotamia; therefore the Bagdad Railway no longer could be said to be a menace to the safety of India. As for Britain’s new position in the Persian Gulf, one of her own publicists said, “England has virtually annexed another sea, one of the world’s highways.”[33]

DIPLOMATIC BARGAINING FAILS TO PRESERVE PEACE

It is one of the tragedies of pre-War diplomacy that the negotiations of 1910–1914 failed to preserve peace in the Near East or, at least, to prevent the entry of Turkey into the Great War. But the failure of the treaties between Germany and the Entente Powers regarding the Ottoman Empire can be traced, in general, to the same reasons that contributed to the collapse of all diplomacy in the crisis of 1914. Imperialism, nationalism, militarism—these were the causes of the Great War; these were the causes of Ottoman participation in the Great War.

One obvious defect of the Potsdam Agreement, the Franco-German agreement regarding Anatolian railways, the Anglo-Turkish settlement of 1913, and the Anglo-German convention regarding Mesopotamia, was the fact that they were founded upon the principle of imperial compensations. Each of the Great Powers involved made “sacrifices”—but in return for important considerations. And throughout all of the bargaining the rights of Turkey, a “backward nation,” were completely ignored. As the German ambassador in London wrote: “The real purpose of these treaties was to divide Asia Minor into spheres of interest, although this expression was anxiously avoided, out of regard for the rights of the Sultan.... By virtue of the treaties all Mesopotamia as far as Basra became our sphere of interest, without prejudice to older British rights in the navigation of the Tigris and in the Willcocks irrigation works. Our sphere further included the whole region of the Bagdad and Anatolian Railways. The British economic domain was to include the coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Smyrna-Aidin line; the French, Syria; the Russian, Armenia.”[34]

In the scramble for concessions in Asia Minor, Italy had been overlooked. The proposed extension of the Smyrna-Aidin Railway met with vehement denunciation on the part of patriotic Italians who looked forward to the further development of Italian economic influence in the hinterland of the port of Adalia. The Italian press loudly demanded that energetic action be taken by the Government to secure from Turkey compensatory concessions or, in default of that, to announce to the Sublime Porte that Italy would not return to Turkey the Dodecanese Islands, of which Italy was in temporary occupation under the terms of the Treaty of Lausanne (1912). A formal demand of this character was made by King Victor Emmanuel’s ambassador at Constantinople, but was met with a curt refusal on the part of the Turks to bargain for the return of their own property.[35]

The Young Turks were not unaware of the true character of the agreements they had entered into with the respective European Powers, but they considered themselves impotent to act otherwise at the time. They knew full well that there was grave danger in an extension of British influence in Mesopotamia, French interests in Syria, and Franco-Russian enterprise in northern Anatolia. They had not forgotten the spoliation of their empire by Austria-Hungary and Italy. They were not altogether unsuspicious about the intentions of Germany. But they believed they could never emancipate their country from foreign domination until they had modernized it. They needed foreign capital and foreign technical assistance, and they had to pay the price. In order to throw off the yoke of European imperialism they had to consent temporarily to be victimized by it.[36]

Nationalistic fervor added to the difficulties created by imperialist rivalry. M. André Tardieu, political editor at the time of _Le Temps_, did not let a single opportunity pass during February and March, 1914, to denounce the French Government for its pro-German policy in the Bagdad Railway question. When M. Cambon, French ambassador at Berlin, was asked whether the Franco-German agreement on Turkish railways would improve the relations between his country and the German Empire, he said: “Official relations, yes, perhaps to some extent, but I do not think that the agreement will affect the great body of public opinion on both sides of the Vosges. It will not, unfortunately, change the tone of the French press towards the Germans.... There is no doubt whatever that the majority, both of Germans and Frenchmen, desire to live at peace; but there is a powerful minority in each country that dreams of nothing but battles and wars, either of conquest or revenge. That is the peril that is always with us; it is like living alongside a barrel of gunpowder which may explode on the slightest provocation.” Herr von Jagow, German Minister of Foreign Affairs, expressed a similar opinion when he said that he was watching for a favorable moment for the publication of the Anglo-German convention of June 15, 1914—“an appropriate moment when the danger of adverse criticism was no longer so acute.”[37] Hatred, suspicion, fear, and other unbridled passions were the stock-in-trade of the Continental press during the months preceding the outbreak of the Great War. Patriotic bombast, not international conciliation, was demanded by the imperialist and nationalist minorities, who exerted only too much influence upon the Governments and made politicians fear lest their efforts at peace be misconstrued as treason!

A situation which was made bad by imperial rivalries and national antagonisms was made intolerable by militarism. During the year 1913–1914, when the diplomatists were working for peace, preparations were being made for war. In the month of August, 1913, while conversations were being held in Berlin to reconcile French and German interests in the Near East, General Joffre was on his way to Russia to confer with the Tsar’s general staff regarding the reorganization of the Russian army. In October of the same year, while tripartite negotiations were being conducted by England, Turkey, and Germany regarding Mesopotamia, General Liman von Sanders was despatched to Constantinople by the Kaiser as head of a German military mission to rebuild the Ottoman army and improve the Ottoman system of defence. Considerations of military strategy were vitiating the efforts of conciliatory diplomacy.

The mission of Liman von Sanders created a crisis at Constantinople. The Russian, French, and British ambassadors protested against such an obvious menace to the interests of the Entente. Russia, in particular, objected to the announced intention of the German general to strengthen the defences of the Straits. All three of the Powers expressed opposition to the further proposal that Field Marshal von Sanders be placed in command of the First Army Corps, with headquarters at Constantinople. The Ottoman Government replied that it meant no offence to England or France, but that it could not allow its military policy to be determined by Russia. It called attention to the fact that the improvement of the navy was in the hands of a British mission and that the reorganization of the gendarmerie was going on under the direction of a French general. German officers were being asked to perform similar services for the army because the great majority of Turkish officers had completed their training in Germany, and the rest, since the days of General von der Goltz Pasha, had been educated and experienced in German methods. To change from German to French or British technique appeared to the Ottoman Minister of War an extremely inadvisable procedure.[38]

Although the storm over Liman von Sanders cleared by February, 1914, it left behind it certain permanent effects. It strengthened German influence at Constantinople, indirectly because of the increased Turkish hostility to Russia and suspicion of France and England, directly because of the presence of hundreds of German staff and regimental officers who used every opportunity to increase German prestige in the army and the civil services. The German ambassador at the Sublime Porte, Baron von Wangenheim, readily capitalized this prestige in the interest of German diplomacy. A formal Turco-German alliance was rapidly passing from the realm of the possible to the realm of the probable.

In the meantime feverish efforts were being made to complete Turkey’s military preparations. In March, 1914, at the request of the Minister of War, a conference was held of representatives of all railways in Asiatic Turkey to discuss the utilization of Ottoman rail communications for mobilization in the event of war. Under the guidance of German and Turkish staff officers a plan was adopted by which the respective railways agreed to merge their services into a unified national system for the transportation of troops. Throughout the spring of 1914 the defences of the Dardanelles were being strengthened, schools were being conducted for junior officers and non-commissioned officers, the General Staff was reorganized, new plans for mobilization were in process of completion. On July 23, 1914, the handiwork of Field Marshal Liman von Sanders Pasha was exhibited in a great national military review. On that occasion Baron von Wangenheim said to the Ottoman Minister of Marine: “Djemal Pasha, just look at the amazing results achieved by German officers in a short time. You have now a Turkish army which can be compared with the best organized armies in the world! All German officers are at one in praising the moral strength of the Turkish soldier, and indeed it has proved itself beyond all expectation. We could claim we have won a great victory if we could call ourselves the ally of a Government which has such an army at its disposal!”[39]

A few days later the Ottoman Empire was admitted to the Triple Alliance—with the consent of Austria, but without even the knowledge of Italy. The die was cast for Turkey’s participation in the War of the Nations![40]

BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND EXPLANATORY NOTES

[1] Statement of Chancellor von Bethmann Hollweg to the Reichstag, December 10, 1910, in _Stenographische Berichte, XII Legislaturperiode, 2 Session_, Volume 262, pp. 3561b _et seq._ _Cf._, also, _The Annual Register_, 1910, pp. 314–315, 335–336; Shuster, _op. cit._, pp. 225 _et seq._ The informal agreement reached at Potsdam was confirmed by a treaty of August 19, 1911. _The Annual Register_, 1911, pp. 357–358. For the diplomatic correspondence arising out of the Potsdam Agreement _cf._ de Siebert, _op. cit._, Chapter IX.

[2] Korff, _op. cit._, pp. 163–164. Baron Korff believes, also, that the Potsdam Agreement was forced upon the weak and vacillating Nicholas II by the unscrupulous and bullying William II.

[3] _Supra_, pp. 65–66, 147–153. For German estimates of the importance of the Potsdam Agreement see a reasoned and temperate speech by Dr. Spahn, of the Catholic Centre, and an impassioned and boisterous speech by Herr Bassermann, of the National Liberals. _Stenographische Berichte, XII Legislaturperiode, 2 Session_, Volume 266 (1911), PP. 5973 _et seq._, 5984 _et seq._

[4] _The Times_, January 18, 1911.

[5] Quoted by W. M. Fullerton, _Problems of Power_ (new and revised edition, New York, 1915), p. 171.

[6] _Parliamentary Debates, House of Commons_, fifth series, Volume 21 (1911), pp. 241–244.

[7] _Journal Officiel, Débats parlementaires, Chambre des Députés_, January 13, 1911, pp. 33–34. M. Jaurès was one of the Frenchmen who felt that their Government never should have opposed the Bagdad Railway in the first instance.

[8] _Ibid._, January 16, pp. 64 _et seq._; _Parliamentary Debates, House of Commons_, Volume 21 (1911), pp. 82 _et seq._, 243–244; _The Times_, January 17 and 19, 1911.

[9] _Parliamentary Debates, House of Commons_, Volume 21 (1911), p. 82.

[10] _Cf._ _supra_, pp. 224–225.

[11] _Cf._ G. Saint-Yves, “Les chemins de fer français dans la Turquie d’Asie,” in _Questions diplomatiques et coloniales_, Volume 37 (1914), pp. 526–531; _Anatolia_, pp. 51–52.

[12] It was proposed that the Anatolian Railways should construct three branches: one from a point east of Bulgurlu north and north-east to Kaisarieh and Sivas; a second from Angora east to the aforementioned branch, joining it near Kaisarieh; a third from Adabazar to Boli. The branch of the Bagdad Railway from Nisibin to Diarbekr and Arghana was authorized by the concession of 1903.

[13] Much of the present account of the negotiations of the years 1910–1914 is based upon documentary material furnished by Dr. von Gwinner and upon additional information supplied by Sir Henry Babington Smith and Djavid Bey. Almost everything heretofore published has been very general in character, but one may find some illuminating details in the following: R. de Caix, “La France et les chemins de fer de l’Asie turque,” in _Questions diplomatiques et coloniales_, Volume 36 (1913), pp. 386–387; _Armenia and Kurdistan_, p. 36; _Commerce Reports_, No. 18a (1915), pp. 2–3; _Stenographische Berichte, XIII Legislaturperiode, 1 Session_, Volume 291 (1913), pp. 6274c _et seq._; _American Journal of International Law_, April, 1918; Commandant de Thomasson, “Les négotiations franco-allemandes,” in _Questions diplomatiques et coloniales_, Volume 37 (1914), pp. 257 _et seq._

[14] For certified copies of the minutes of the meetings of August 19–20 and September 24–26, 1913, and for the text of the convention of February 15, 1914, the author is indebted to Dr. von Gwinner.

[15] _Stenographische Berichte, XIII Legislaturperiode, 1 Session_,