Part 3

A graphic example of the manner in which the technological and economic benefits from the space program can grow may be seen from the development of the X-15. This rocket craft, designed to "fly" beyond the Earth's atmosphere at altitudes up to 100 miles, is the product of 400 different firms and contractors.

Inasmuch as other nations, those which generally have lagged behind the United States in technical know-how, are now rapidly bringing their technology up to date--this windfall from our space program is especially opportune. It is providing the incentive to American industry to remain in the world's technological van. And it is emphasizing that economic leadership is a dynamic thing, that U.S. mass-production techniques which have enabled the Nation to compete so well in foreign markets are no longer, of themselves, sufficient guarantee of superior economic position.

While America's space exploration program, on a formal basis, came into being as recently as October 1958, its impact on the national economy has probably been sharper than that of any single new program ever conceived. For there are now at least 5,000 companies or research organizations engaged in the missile-space industry. And more than 3,200 different space-related products have been required and are being produced to date.[28]

One can only speculate on the economic effect which the space program is having on investments or on investors who have no other connection with it. It seems significant, however, that the stock market pages in recent months have come to devote a good deal of attention to "space issues." Financially speaking, space has thus become a major category. That it has done so in such a short period would seem to have marked implications for the future.

In brief, space exploration is becoming almost an industry in itself, and there are those who believe it destined to become the largest industrial spur in the Nation before too many years have gone by.

One expert, an experienced hand not only in astronautics but in the business world as well, describes the outlook in this fashion: "A great industrial change is taking place in the United States. The aircraft industry, which long considered missiles as a small department, now finds itself becoming a part of the large missile and space flight industry. It is an elemental evolution. An industrial change is upon us comparable to the advent of mercantilism."[29] He has predicted that within a decade or so the astronautics industry will be larger than the automotive industry of the entire world.

While such predictions may be overly optimistic, they can scarcely be dismissed as irresponsible in the light of what has already happened.

CREATION OF NEW INDUSTRIES

Whether or not we think of the missile-space business as being a self-contained industry, the requirements and exigencies of space exploration can be expected to result in the creation of new or greatly strengthened industrial branches, for example:

_Research_

This phase of the American economy is having a phenomenal growth. Not only have many established industries now placed research high on their organizational charts, but hundreds, perhaps thousands, of new businesses are springing up which are entirely devoted to research and development. R. & D., as it is called, is their stock in trade, their only product. And space exploration appears to have given them their greatest boost.

One recent study on the subject regards research as the fourth major industrial revolution to take place in American history, following the advents of steam mechanization, steel, electricity-and-internal combustion engines.

The fourth industrial revolution, ours, is unique in the number of people working on it, its complexity, and its power to push the economy at a rate previously impossible.

Today between 5,000 and 50,000 _technical entrepreneurs_ (top R. & D. engineers, leading scientists, and highly effective technical managers) are directly analogous to an estimated 50 to 500 men in all of the first three periods. Thus about 100 times the effort in terms of qualitative (effective, creative, patent-producing) manpower is being spent on the fourth revolution as on the other three combined.

Total manpower, of course, is much more than that: there are probably 700,000 engineers and industrially oriented scientists in the United States today, as against 2,000 even as late as Edison's first high voltage light bulb. Whereas Edison worked with 20 to 100 scientists in his laboratory, and Fulton labored alone, there are 5,000 industrial laboratories today employing from 20 to 7,300 technical men each.[30]

_New power sources_

One of the greatest demands of spacecraft of the future will be for new sources of power. While rocket propulsion power is part of this picture, the power needed to operate space vehicles after launching may prove to be the larger and more important need. Progress has already been made in this direction by use of special kinds of batteries and solar cells which convert the sun's rays into electric current. But these will need supplementing or replacing eventually as greater power becomes necessary.

It would be rash to predict the outcome of this complicated field, but certain very promising methods can be listed.

One is the fuel cell, which converts fuel directly into electric power without the necessity for machinery or working parts. Much progress has been made on the fuel cell in recent months. In England a 40-cell unit has been used to drive a forklift truck and to do electric welding. It develops up to 5 kilowatts.[31] In the United States a 30-cell portable powerplant developing 200 watts has been delivered to the Army and Marine Corps,[32] while a 1,000-unit cell has been developed in the Midwest which provides 15 kilowatts and drives a tractor.[33]

Another method is plasma power, or power generated through the use of hot ionized gas. Such gas acts as a conductor of electricity and when employed as a "magnetohydrodynamics" generator it can be used for a variety of purposes. It has the advantage of being simple, rugged, and efficient. Some day it may also prove very economical. Already 10 municipal areas along the Mason-Dixon line are preparing to experiment with electric power derived from this source.[34] It has been estimated that "as much as 1 million watts could be generated by shooting a stream of plasma at speeds three times that of sound through a magnetic field only 3 feet long and with the magnetic poles 6 inches apart."[35]

Another possible source is photoelectric power. While a number of very difficult problems block the practical generation of this kind of power, the astronautics research division of one American company has now succeeded in increasing the efficiency of photoelectric cells by a factor of more than 300.[36] So the possibilities in this area are looking up. As discussed in section II, photon power derived from the ejection of electromagnetic rays may someday prove a source for accelerating vehicles once they have escaped from Earth's gravity.

Another possibility, of course, is atomic energy about which much has been said and written. If, as some scientists believe, extensive space exploration by manned crews will depend on harnessing this great source of energy--both for booster purposes and for operating spacecraft in the distant parts of our interplanetary system--this fact alone may assure that the obstacles to practical nuclear energy are overcome faster and more completely than would otherwise be the case. It is interesting to note that the science of controlling nuclear fusion (as opposed to fission) has come so far in the past several years that 11 private power companies are pooling their resources to advance this state of the art.[37]

_New water sources and uses_

A look into the future indicates very strongly that water will become a major world problem, possibly by the beginning of the 1970's, which is likely to be another "dry" decade. Present water supplies, coupled with the increasing population and the many new uses for water, are barely adequate now. In another 10 years the situation could be critical.

Part of our national space program includes studies on how to use and reuse water to the best advantage of the human in space. A number of avenues are being followed, including vaporization of volatiles in biological wastes.[38]

From research of this kind it is more than possible that knowledge will evolve which will prove useful in the practical production of fresh water from other chemical compounds or mixtures, including seawater. More than that, it could lead to new ways for extracting much needed materials from the sea. Seawater contains 40 basic elements, 19 in relatively copious amounts. These elements run from 18,980 parts parts per million of chlorine to 0,0000002 part per billion of radium. Yet, so far, we have learned to extract only bromine and magnesium in useful amounts.[39] Conversely, the study of how marine animals extract rare elements from the seawater, such as the extraction of copper compounds by the octopus, could provide astronautic researchers with important clues for keeping man alive in space.

_Noise and human engineering_

This is a field in which research has been going on seriously for only a few years. Most of it has developed since World War II. Human engineering is involved primarily with the reaction of people to their immediate surroundings and how to arrange those surroundings in order to permit the most comfortable and efficient functioning within them.

The noise aspect of human engineering, as it may develop from the problems of astronauts operating in a silent world, could lead to a variety of innovations for improving the performance of workers or even the general attitude of people living in urban areas. In today's world, where humans are subjected to so many different kinds, degrees, and sources of noise, psychologists consider the matter to be of no small importance.

_High speed-light weight computers_

Space vehicles now need electronic computers for determining the moment of launch, for fixing orbits, for navigation, and for processing collected data. Computers will precede man into space. They will take over guidance and decision functions beyond limits of human physiology, psychology, versatility, and reaction time.[40]

The trend in this direction is marked and space exploration is accelerating it. Because of weight and size limitations, and due to the genius of research, the giant electronic brain of today will soon disappear and be replaced with an apparatus only a small fraction of its present size. The implications for the business and professional world are great. And a not inconsiderable side effect, according to many modern technicians, will be the flood of brainpower released from time-consuming chores and thus made available for more basic, creative thought.

_Solid state physics_

Few areas of effort are advancing this extremely promising art faster than space exploration, which places a premium on light weight and small size. The miniaturization of equipment being placed in U.S. satellites, for example, has been one of the contemporary wonders of the world of science.

A big part of this march toward tiny equipment is in the field of electronics, where the process is called microminiaturization, molecular electronics, micromodular engineering or a number of other terms. In essence it refers to the greatly reduced size of equipment through "integrated circuits," coupled functions, the building of complicated components into a single molecular design and so on.

The art has proceeded to the point where complete radios can be reduced to the size of a lump of sugar.

Clearly, this trend holds almost unlimited utility for the home, the factory, the marketplace, the highway, the hospital or just about any other arena one cares to name. So great is the promise that virtually every electronics company in the country is undertaking "to take the state of the art into fundamentally new areas" and there exploit its many possibilities.[41]

ECONOMIC ALLIANCES

It may be that our national space exploration program will also result in stronger economic alliances, not only within our own national borders but on an international basis. Interesting speculation to this effect has been advanced by a prominent official of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration:

I think we may expect that the combined influence of jet aircraft and satellite communications systems will enable us to integrate the now somewhat distant States of Hawaii and Alaska with the rest of the States as thoroughly as the East and West are already integrated. Second, and in many ways a more intriguing possibility, is the prospect of developing a truly international economic organization. It is quite apparent that even today a large fraction of the economy of the United States is dependent upon foreign trade. Some nations of the world, such as England or Japan, are almost entirely dependent upon foreign trade for their basic standard of living; however, current foreign trade practices are necessarily based on a somewhat leisurely pattern enforced by our current communications capacity. Whether we will be able to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of our activities in foreign trade through the use of the new communications facilities now foreseen will of course depend upon our political ability to work out viable arrangements for our mutual benefit with our oversea friends.

One of the lessons of history in the fields of communications is that an increase in capability has never gone unused. The capability of doing new things has always resulted in it being found profitable to use this capability in all fields, both commercial and governmental.[42]

PRIVATE ENTERPRISE IN SPACE

Up to now space exploration has been more or less the exclusive domain of the Federal Government. It seems likely that this situation will not change much in the near future. But the question finally arises: Is the nature of space such that the traditional American concept of private enterprise can have no place in it?

On this score there is debate. Recently, however, there have been indications that businessmen feel they will be able to conduct certain business operations and services in space.

The space frontier will inevitably increase the scale of thinking and risk taking by business. When we are dealing with space, we are dealing with a technology that requires a planetary scale to stage it; decades of time to develop it; and much bigger investments to get across the threshold of economic return than is customary in business today. Business must now think in international terms, and in terms of the next business generation. It must step up to the big risks with the same vision that enabled an earlier generation of builders to push railroad tracks out across the wilderness and lay the foundations of our modern economy.[43]

Incidentally, it should be pointed out that space exploration is already encouraging the formation of business of all sizes. Myriads of small businesses have sprung up, many of them "suppliers of specialty equipment for the larger concerns that have responsibility for major components and systems."[44]

To what extent will private enterprise become involved? Here is one view:

As the years pass by, and space apparatus becomes more reliable, and the work of obtaining scientific data from space acquires a more routine character--certainly many of the necessary operating facilities could be put on a self-liquidating, private-industry basis.

Probably the first opportunities for private investment will come in the commercial use of satellites. Looking even further into the future of space exploration, perhaps there would be economic justification for a privately owned launching service that would put objects into space for the peaceful purposes of friendly governments, international agencies, industry, and the universities.

The base itself, from which the commercial launching service would operate, might be modeled after a port authority. Such a nonmilitary, international space port could develop as a center for many private enterprises related to space operations. These might include service and maintenance facilities; data-processing services; space communication centers; laboratory facilities; standardized equipment for satellites and other space vehicles; fuel supplies; medical services; biological services; and general supplies.

Moving away from the idea of a commercial space port, must all future tracking stations, observatories, and data-processing stations be Government owned? How about experimental stations for the simulation of space environments? How about laboratories and stations actually constructed in space? Or will privately owned facilities one day offer these services on an international basis to governments, industries, universities, and international agencies?

Most likely the first businesses suitable for commercial operation, using space technologies, will be worldwide communication by satellite, private weather forecasting, and high-speed Earth transport by rocket.[45]

JOBS

There probably is no reliable way to gage the number of Americans who are employed today because of the national space effort, nor to estimate accurately the number who are likely to be employed in the years ahead.

This much can be said, though. They already number in the tens of thousands, probably in the hundreds of thousands.

The Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration has reported that his agency presently employs 18,000 persons. And he adds "in spite of the size of this organization, we estimate that approximately 75 percent of our budget will be expended through contracts with industry, educational institutions, and other nongovernmental groups."

Thus the number of persons privately employed who are working on NASA projects is, of itself, a high figure. The number employed in, by, or for the Department of Defense on missiles or space-related projects is undoubtedly higher.

In addition to these must be added the men and women employed by private industry in a capacity not directly related to the space program but whose jobs have been created nonetheless by its stimulus.

The fact is that the military and peaceful needs of the space program are already employing a significant percentage of the industrial work force, and will make up an even larger proportion of total employment and production of the country as the years go by. The aircraft industry, for example, is broadening its scope to include missile and space technologies. Much of the electronics industry is devoted to missile and space needs. The communications, chemical, and metallurgical industries are increasingly involved. These industries are already among the largest employers in the United States, and they are the major employers of the Nation's technical manpower. Hence we are not speaking of a minor element in the national economy, but of its leading growth industries.[46]

This phase of the space program's value should not be eyed merely from the standpoint of scientists and the labor market. It has major significance for the professions--for doctors, lawyers, architects, teachers, and engineers. All of these will be vitally concerned with space exploration in the future. The doctor with space medicine and its results; the lawyer with business relations and a vastly increased need for knowledge in international law; the architect with the construction of spaceports and data and tracking facilities; the teacher with the booming demand for new types of space-engendered curricula.

As for the engineer--

In this pyramid of scientific and engineering effort there will be found requirements for the services of almost every type of scientist and engineer to a greater or less degree. In the forefront, of course, are the aerospace and astronautical engineers but the development of the Saturn launching vehicle has also enlisted the cooperation of civil, mechanical, electrical, metallurgical, chemical, automotive, structural, radio, and electronics engineers. Much of their work relates to ground handling equipment, special automotive and barge equipment, checkout equipment, and all the other devices needed to support the design, construction, testing, launching, and data gathering.[47]

AUTOMATION AND DISARMAMENT

Finally, an economic value of extreme importance could be the ultimate role of the space program in modifying the threat to labor which is inherent in automation and disarmament. Space exploration, opening up new and profitable vistas, could take up much of the slack thus imposed and do it at a higher and more intellectual job level.

Automation, as we know, is already in the process. In agriculture alone it has bitten deeply into the laboring force and yet produces greater crops than ever.[48] It is gathering strength in many other fields.

Disarmament is a long way from being a reality. But all nations of the world are striving for it, or at least giving lipservice to its principles, so it may one day emerge as a reality. If this happens, space exploration again may be a most important element in taking up the slack which a prominent reduction in defense activity could not help but bring about.

Indeed, there are some who already foresee a complete substitution of space for defense, and who prognosticate that in the 1990's "the economy of nations is now based on the astronautics industry, instead of war."[49] Certainly, some new economic force would be crucial to nations deprived of the need for devising and manufacturing weapons.

FOOTNOTES:

[25] Gavin, James M., address to the International Bankers Association, Bal Harbour, Fla., Dec. 2, 1958.

[26] Mitchell, Hon. Erwin, in the House of Representatives, June 2, 1960.

[27] Dryden, Dr. Hugh L., Deputy Administrator, NASA, Penrose lecture before the American Philosophical Society, Philadelphia, Apr. 21, 1960.

[28] Missile-Space Directory, Missiles and Rockets, May 30, 1960, pp. 86-359.

[29] Haley, Andrew G., general counsel and past president of the International Astronautical Federation, "Rocketry and Space Exploration." Van Nostrand Co., Princeton, N.J., 1958 p. 156.

[30] Ruzic, Neil P., "The Technical Entrepreneur," Industrial Research, May 1980, p.10.

[31] Bacon, F. T., "The Fuel Cell, Power Source of the Future," New Scientist, Aug. 17, 1959, p.272.

[32] Science Service dispatch, dateline Lynn, Mass., Apr. 25, 1950.