The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics

CHAPTER XIV.

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FALLACIES.

§§ 1-3. (I.) Errors in judging of events after they have happened. 4-7. Very various judgments may be thus involved. 8, 9. (II.) _Confusion between random and picked selections._ 10, 11. (III.) Undue limitation of the notion of Probability. 12-16. (IV.) Double or Quits: the Martingale. 17, 18. Physical illustration. 19, 20. (V.) Inadequate realization of large numbers. 21-24. Production of works of art by chance. 25. Illustration from doctrine of heredity. 26-30. (VI.) Confusion between Probability and Induction. 31-33. (VII.) Undue neglect of small chances. 34, 35. (VIII.) _Judging by the event in Probability and in Induction._