CHAPTER XI.

France and Prussia--The Emperor's Speech--Faint Hopes of Peace--Favourable View of the Policy of Russia--Progress of the Negotiations--Russia accepts the Terms of Peace--The Acceptance explained--Popular Feeling in Favour of the War--Lord Stratford and General Williams--Mr. Disraeli's Prospects--Meeting of Parliament--Baron Parke's Life Peerage--The Debate on the Address--Debate on Life Peerages--Report on the Sufferings of the Army--Strained Relations with France--Lord Clarendon goes to the Congress at Paris--Opening of the Conference--Sabbatarianism--Progress of the Negotiations--Kars--Nicolaieff--The Life Peerage Question--Blunders and Weakness of the Government--A Visit to Paris--Count Orloff's View of the War--Lord Cowley on the Negotiations--Princess Lieven on the War--An Evening at the Tuileries--Opening of the Legislative Chamber--Lord Cowley's Desponding Views--The Austrian Proposals--Bitterness in French Society--Necessity of Peace to France--Conversation with M. Thiers--A Stag Hunt at St. Germains--The Emperor yields to the Russians--Birth of the Prince Imperial.

_January 1st_, 1856.--Intelligence arrived yesterday that Esterhazy had presented the Austrian proposal to Nesselrode on the 28th, who had received it _in profound silence_. Yesterday morning the 'Morning Post,' in communicating this fact, put forth an article indecently violent and menacing against Prussia; and as it contained a statement of what the Emperor Napoleon had said to Baron Seebach, which was exactly what Persigny had told Clarendon, this alone would prove, if any proof were required, that the article was inserted either by Palmerston or by Persigny. The 'Morning Post' derives its only importance from being the Gazette of Palmerston and of the French Government, and it is not very easy to determine which of the two is guilty of this article. These are the sort of manifestos which make us so odious all over the world.

[Sidenote: MISCHIEVOUS RESULTS OF THE WAR.]

_Hatchford, January 2nd._--The speech which Louis Napoleon addressed to the Imperial Guard the day before yesterday when they marched into Paris in triumph, gives reason for suspecting that the manifesto against Prussia in the 'Morning Post' was French, for there is no small correspondence between the speech and the article. In the article Prussia is openly threatened and told, if she will not join the allies in making war on Russia, the allies will make war upon her; in the speech the Guards are told to hold themselves in readiness and that a great French army will be wanted. Nothing is more within the bounds of probability than that the Emperor may determine, if he is obliged to make war, to make it for a French object, and on some enemy from whom a good spoil may be taken, a war which will gratify French vanity and cupidity, and which will therefore not be unpopular. He may think, and most probably not erroneously, that in the present temper of this country the people would be quite willing to let him do what he pleases with Prussia, Belgium, or any other part of the continent, if he will only concur with us in making fierce war against Russia. But though this I believe to be the feeling of the masses, and that their resentment against Prussia is so strong that they would rejoice at seeing another Jena followed by similar results, the minority who are elevated enough in life to reason and reflect will by no means like to see France beginning to run riot again, and while we have been making such an uproar about the temporary occupation of the Principalities and the crossing of the Pruth by Russia, that we should quietly consent to, nay, become accomplices in the passage of the Rhine and an aggression on Germany by France. The very possibility of this shows the necessity of putting an end to a war which cannot continue without so many and such perilous contingencies. Nothing in fact can exceed the complications in which we can hardly help being plunged, and the various antagonistic interests which will be brought into collision, creating perplexities and difficulties which it would require the genius of a Richelieu to unravel and compose. The earth under our feet may be mined with plots; we know not what any of the Great Powers are really designing; the only certainty for us is that we are going on blindly and obstinately spending our wealth and our blood in a war in which we have no interest, and in keeping Europe in a state of ferment and uncertainty the ultimate consequences of which it is appalling to contemplate. Clarendon showed me a letter from Francis Baring from Paris the other day, which told him that the Emperor wished to make peace, because he knew that France, with all her outward signs of prosperity, was unable to go on with the war without extreme danger, that she is in fact 'using herself up,' has been going on at a rate she cannot afford.

[Sidenote: NEGOTIATIONS FOR PEACE.]

_Hatchford, January 4th._--I was in London yesterday, where I saw George Lewis, who was very low, sees no chance of peace, and everybody thinks it hopeless since the Russian Circular has appeared. It is difficult to understand the motive of the Russians in publishing such a proposal, when they must know it would not and could not be accepted, and were also aware of the terms the Western Powers were going to offer to her. Lewis says our financial prospect is very bad, a declining revenue, rising prices, a large loan wanted which will be got on bad terms, and more money to be lent to Sardinia and Turkey. He thinks, if the Russians propose to negotiate, that Palmerston will never consent; but though he will no doubt resist, if France presses it I have no doubt he will give way and that the majority of the Cabinet will be for doing so. Everything looks as black as possible, and the Emperor Napoleon's speech to the Imperial Guard following Persigny's article in the 'Morning Post' wears a very menacing aspect. It is possible indeed that he may have held this language in order to frighten us into a more pacific disposition, but so far from being alarming or unpalatable to the majority here, they will hail with satisfaction any intimation of his resolution to make war on Prussia; and if Louis Napoleon will only go on fighting against Russia, they will be quite willing that he should take whatever he pleases from any other power which will not join us in our present crusade. I often wonder what the Duke of Wellington would have said and thought if he could have lived to see this day, and the madness of this nation.

_London, January 9th._--I came to town on Monday and found when I arrived that there was a fresh glimmering of peace. Austria had sent word she was inclined to believe that Russia intended to accept the terms. I went to Lewis, who told me this was true, but he did not know on what ground their opinion rested more than that ten days had elapsed during which no symptoms of a flat refusal had appeared, and Lewis himself thought there was no doubt they were considering whether they should accept or what reply they should make. Colloredo called on Clarendon the other day, and, after some unimportant talk, asked him if he had ever heard, or had reason to believe, that Russia had made a communication to France to the effect that if France had a mind to take the Rhenish Provinces and make peace with her, she should not oppose such a design. Clarendon replied that he knew nothing of it, but thought it not at all improbable.

Bernstorff had a conversation with Reeve the other day in which he told him that he was much put out at the isolated condition of Prussia, and gave him to understand that he should like the King to join the alliance, but he did not think anything would induce him to do so. It might perhaps be prudent, but it would be enormously base if Prussia were to come _au secours des vainqueurs_, and, now that Russia is in exceeding distress, to join England and France, to whom she certainly is under no obligations, in crushing her. But then it would only be prudent for the moment and to remove an immediate and impending danger, for in the more comprehensive view of the balance of power and with referance to general policy, it would be far wiser to leave the power of Russia undiminished. Germany has nothing to fear from Russia, for the notion of her being eternally animated with designs of conquest in every direction is a mere chimæra which the people who propagate it do not themselves believe. The part she has played for many years past has been that of a pacificator, and her only intervention has been to appease quarrels, and resist the progress of democracy and revolution. In 1848 it was the authority of the Emperor Nicholas which prevented a great war between Austria and Prussia which would have made all Germany a scene of havoc and bloodshed. Our Government now evidently expect a proposal from Russia to negotiate, and are living in hopes that it may be rejected _in limine_ by Esterhazy, and that they shall be able to prevail on the Emperor Napoleon not to consent to any overture that may be made to him through any other channel.

_January 15th._--I came to town yesterday morning and found on my arrival the Russian answer, which was pretty much what I expected. I suspect our Government will have been disappointed that so much was conceded as to make a peremptory rejection so monstrous as to be hardly safe. However, Esterhazy has been ordered to withdraw on the 18th, unless everything else is conceded. Granville fancies they are not unlikely to do this, but I am persuaded they will not. It remains to be seen what the French will do, for all depends on them. I asked Granville what he thought would be the end of it; he said _on the whole_ he was rather disposed to expect it would lead to peace; he said Austria did not mean to go to war with Russia in any case, he thought she had played her cards with considerable dexterity, and made herself a sort of arbitress, and, what she most desired, had got a decided lead of Prussia, the object of her hatred. I asked him if Prussia was terrified at the menaces contained in the Emperor's speech and other things against her, and he said he thought she was irritated but not frightened, and he inveighed against the folly of such speeches, and especially such articles as Persigny, if it was he, had put into the 'Morning Post.'

_January 16th._--So far as I can as yet discover of public opinion, it is in favour of accepting, or at all events of negotiating on, the Russian proposals. The 'Times' has an ambiguous article on the subject. Nobody will approve of the continuation of the war merely to obtain an Austrian object, which the cession of Bessarabia is, and the article about Bomarsund, which has nothing to do with the avowed object of the war. I have not the least doubt one half of the Cabinet, at least, are in their hearts of this opinion, but I am afraid they will not have the courage to stand forth, avow, and act upon it.

[Sidenote: TERMS OF PEACE ACCEPTED BY RUSSIA.]

_January 17th._--I saw Lewis yesterday and for the first time saw something approaching to _a certainty_ of peace. His information was curious: the 'Morning Post,' in the statement inserted by Persigny, said that the Russians had rejected the conditions about Bessarabia, and about Bomarsund and had accepted the rest. In the counter proposition of Russia there was no mention of Bomarsund, and for this very good reason, that no such proposal was made to them. When the terms of Austria and France were sent here our Government objected to that article which said the allies reserved to themselves to make _other_ conditions, or some such words. They said it was not fair, and that they should at once say what they wanted, and _all_ they wanted, and the additions they proposed were that Bomarsund should not be restored, that Consuls should be admitted to the Black Sea ports, and that 'something' should be done about Georgia and Circassia. This was their answer, and our allies agreed to these additions, but for what reason has not as yet appeared. They sent the terms to St. Petersburg in their original shape and without our articles, so that in fact no condition about Bomarsund was made to them. The Cabinet met yesterday to determine what answer should be sent to Paris, the French having notified that they would make no reply to the counter proposal till they were apprised of our sentiments thereupon. Lewis said he had no doubt that both governments would be willing to enter upon negotiation on these terms, France and Austria being anxious for peace and our Government not averse, for they begin to perceive that there is a rapidly increasing disposition to put an end to the war, and particularly that nobody will desire to continue it merely to obtain an exclusively Austrian object, which the cession of part of Bessarabia would be, especially as Austria has no thought of going to war. The Russian Government have written in a very conciliatory tone to Paris, which is known, though the letter has not yet arrived. The King of Prussia had written a private, but very pressing letter to the Emperor of Russia entreating him to make peace. Though very private, the French Government contrived to get a copy of it, and Cowley sent this copy home. It is said to be a very able letter written in a most confidential style. Such being the state of affairs and all parties apparently being agreed in a disposition to put an end to the war, it seemed to me quite certain that the negotiations would be established, and that they would lead to peace. In the evening I asked Granville if he did not think we should now certainly have peace, and he said 'I think so, but there are still a great many complications,' and he said Cowley and Walewski were on such bad terms that they hardly spoke. The fact is that Cowley is a gentleman and a man of honour and veracity, but he is sensitive and prone to take offence; the other is an adventurer, a needy speculator, without honour, conscience, or truth, and utterly unfit both as to his character and his capacity for such an office as he holds. Then it must be owned that it must be intolerably provoking to Walewski or any man in his situation to see Cowley established in such strange relations with the Emperor, being at least for certain purposes more his Minister for Foreign Affairs than Walewski himself.

[Sidenote: TERMS OF PEACE ACCEPTED BY RUSSIA.]

_12 o'clock._--Payne has just rushed in here, to say that a telegraphic message, dated Vienna, ten o'clock last night, announces that 'Russia accepts _unconditionally_ the proposals of the allies.' The consequence of this astounding intelligence was such a state of confusion and excitement on the Stock Exchange as was hardly ever seen before. The newspapers had one and all gone on predicting that the negotiations would lead to nothing, and that the war would go on, so that innumerable people continued to be 'bears,' and they were all rushing to get out as fast as they could. It remains yet to be seen whether it is really true; if it is, the Russians will be prodigiously provoked when they find that this concession was superfluous, and that the allies would have accepted _their_ terms.

_January 18th._--Though the account in the 'Times' was not exactly correct, it proved substantially so. The right message came from Seymour soon after. There was such a scene in the Stock Exchange as was hardly ever witnessed; the funds rose three per cent., making five in the last two days. The Rothschilds, and all the French who were in the secret with Walewski, must have made untold sums. I have been endeavouring to account for what appears the extraordinary conduct of Russia in accepting the Austrian terms purely and simply, and this strikes me to be the solution of it, and if my idea is correct it will account for the exceedingly bad terms which Cowley and Walewski are on. The conditions offered to Russia contained none of the points insisted on by our Government. I believe that the French and Austrians believed, very likely were certain, that if they had been sent Russia would have refused them, and, being bent on peace, they resolved to leave them out, and excuse themselves to England as they best could; they therefore simply presented their proposal as it originally stood. Russia replied with a qualified acceptance, and then Esterhazy was obliged by the compact to say that he could only take yes or no; then, finding them not inclined to give any other answer, that he or somebody else told them the true state of the case, viz., that he had kept back the conditions _we_ had demanded, and that unless they accepted his proposition, it must of necessity fall to the ground, and that nothing would then prevent the English points being brought forward and made absolute conditions of any fresh preliminaries. This was very likely to determine them to accept the proposals as put before them, for although by so doing they accepted the fifth condition, which exposes them to further and not specified demands, the especial points on which we insist can only be brought forward as points for negotiation, and will not form part of those conditions to which by their acceptance they stand completely and irrevocably pledged.

[Sidenote: POPULAR FEELING FOR WAR.]

_London, January 22nd._--I went to Trentham on Friday, and returned yesterday. Granville is very confident of peace, fancying that Russia will make no difficulties, and will agree to our additional demands, which may be so, but seems to me far from certain. The intelligence of peace being at hand, or probable, gives no satisfaction here, and the whole press is violent against it, and thunders away against Russia and Austria, warns the people not to expect peace, and incites them to go on with the war. There seems little occasion for this, for the press has succeeded in inoculating the public with such an eager desire for war that there appears a general regret at the notion of making peace. When I was at Trentham, I asked Mr. Fleming, the gardener, a very intelligent man, what the general feeling was in that part of the world, and he said the general inclination was to go on with the war till we had made Russia, besides other concessions, pay all its expenses. It appears to me impossible the _entente cordiale_ with France can go on long if the war goes on, when the people here are passionate for war, and in France they are equally passionate for peace. If the Emperor goes on with the war he will be very popular here, which does not signify much to him, but give deep offence to his own countrymen, which will be of vital importance to him, and no wonder, for their disgust will be intense at being compelled to carry on a war at a ruinous expense, merely because it is the pleasure of the English to do so. This seems so obvious that I do not believe, after having gone so far, and excited such strong hopes of peace, that he will dare to disappoint the expectations of the country. What the people of England would really like would be to engage France to continue, and to issue a joint declaration of war against Austria and Prussia.

_January 23rd._--Telegraphic news yesterday that Austria positively refuses to send our supplementary conditions to St. Petersburg. France backed us up, or at least pretended to do so, for it is quite impossible to know what she really does. Baudin is come over here, supposed to be for the purpose of explaining and apologising for Walewski's not having sent the conditions originally. I do not know what excuse he makes. Lewis thinks as I do, that the real reason was his fear lest they should endanger the acceptance by Russia of the conditions. Our Government believe, or at least pretend to do so, that the Emperor was innocent of this _ruse_ and that Walewski is alone guilty; but I doubt it, for I cannot believe Walewski would dare to do such a thing without his master's knowledge and consent, and should not be surprised if the whole thing was the Emperor's doing.

There is a tremendous clamour got up by the press against Lord Stratford on account of his neglect of General Williams at Kars and leaving his appeals for aid unattended to. Stratford has sent home a defence of himself, and, I hear, a skilful one. I do not think they will remove him, because they say he is now acting _bonâ fide_ according to his instructions, and exerting all his influence to smooth any difficulties that may arise at Constantinople in adjusting the terms of peace. But it is likely that the Turks are now very anxious for peace, as they are exceedingly sick of their protectors, by whom their dignity and independence are quite as much compromised as by their enemies, while the process of exhaustion is going on at a constantly increasing ratio.

[Sidenote: LORD DERBY AND MR. DISRAELI.]

_January 26th._--Yesterday morning Disraeli called on me, and after we had discussed some private affairs, he began talking politics. He is very triumphant at his pacific views and expectations having turned out so true, and at the 'Press' newspaper having proved to be right. He said, he had never stood so well with the _best_ men of his party as he did now, that he is to have forty-five men, the cream of the Conservatives, to dine with him on Wednesday next. He then talked of Derby and the blunders he had made in spite of all the advice he had given and the remonstrances he had made to him, that he had written to him and told him what he knew from undoubted authority must and would happen about peace, and implored him not to commit himself to the continuance of the war, but that Derby with all his great talents had no discretion, and suffered himself to be led and influenced by some of the weakest and least capable men of his party. So instead of listening to what Disraeli said to him, he writes a long, reasoned reply to his arguments in the same way he would have replied to a speech in the House of Lords, and when he went to Scotland he had the folly to go to some meeting got up for the purpose, and then to make a violent war speech. I asked him how Derby and Stanley got on together, and he said that they were so much attached to each other, and Stanley had so profound a filial veneration for his father, that personal feelings silenced all political differences, and nothing would induce Stanley to take any public part adverse to his father's policy and opinions. It was evident that there is little political cordiality between Derby and Disraeli, and a considerable split in the party. If Disraeli is to be believed, the best of the Conservatives are disposed to go with him rather than with Derby, but I own I much doubt this. However, it will soon be seen what the state of that party is.

No further advance has been made towards the arrangements, but it is clear peace will be made. George Grey told me so yesterday, and intimated as much as that small difficulties must and would be got over. France, Austria, and Russia are resolved on peace, and England cannot alone make herself an obstacle. I suppose it will end in some compromise upon the points remaining in dispute.

Macaulay has retired from Parliament, where he had done nothing since his last election; he hardly ever attended and never spoke, or certainly not more than once. It is to be hoped his life will be spared to bring down his history to the end of Queen Anne's reign, which is all that can possibly be expected.

_January 31st._--Parliament meets to-day. Who would have thought a few weeks ago that the Queen's Speech would announce the preliminaries of peace? Who would ever have thought that tidings of peace would produce a general sentiment of disappointment and dissatisfaction in this nation? There are, however, sundry symptoms of an approaching change in the public mind. The press is much perplexed; the newspapers do not know what to say. They confidently predicted that there would be no peace, and urged the people to go on clamouring for war as long as they could; but since they have seen that their noise is ineffectual, and that peace is inevitable, they have nearly left off inveighing against it, because doing so without any result only exhibits their own impotence, which is just what they most wish to avoid. They therefore now confine themselves to a sort of undergrowl, muttering abuse against Russia and Austria, calling out for more stringent terms, and still indulging in a desperate hope that some unexpected difficulty may occur to break off the negotiations and plunge us into war again. The Opposition are as much perplexed as the press, and do not know what course to take, or what is the most vulnerable part of the Government, and they are not agreed among themselves.

So in the meantime they seem disposed to vent themselves in a fierce attack on Baron Parke's Life Peerage. This peerage has excited great wrath even in many who are friendly to the Government, and probably in all who are unfriendly. Amongst those who most vehemently resent it are Lord Campbell, Lord Lyndhurst, and, as I am told, Brougham. There is much to be said about it either way, and it will probably give rise to some good debates and not uninteresting.

As one of many other proofs of the difficulty of getting at truth, and therefore of having history correctly written, I must record a fact not very important in itself. Lewis distinctly told me that it was _France_ (i.e. Walewski) who kept back our conditions when the Austrian propositions were returned to Vienna; now Granville tells me it was not France, but Austria, who is responsible for their not having been sent to St. Petersburg, and that Walewski did send them to Vienna. The truth probably is that he gave notice to Buol that we wanted these things, but did not incorporate them with the propositions, and that Buol, though apprised of them, did not choose to insert what France had not chosen to insert herself. It is quite impossible to believe that they can make any serious difficulty; it is time to make peace with Russia when our relations with America are assuming a very unpleasant aspect.

[Sidenote: MEETING OF PARLIAMENT.]

_February 3rd._--Parliament opened very quietly, and there was no disposition evinced to find fault with the Government, or to throw obstacles in the way of making peace. A great change has certainly come over the country within the last fortnight or three weeks, not that people are not still sorry to see the end of the war, and rather inclined to view the peace with suspicion as well as dislike, but they have no grounds for complaint, they see that it is inevitable, and they are disposed to acquiesce.

Derby came down full of opposition but rather puzzled how to vent it, so he criticised the Speech, which was a very poor and bald composition, made a great stir about Kars, and announced a fierce attack on Baron Parke's Life Peerage.

In the House of Commons everything was very _piano_, and Disraeli quite moderate. The Government are much puzzled about this unlucky Life Peerage. The thing is done, and now they find themselves condemned by a large majority which includes all the Law Peers. If any vote can be taken on it in the House of Lords, they will be beaten.

The Conferences will begin in about three weeks, and probably be very soon over, for it is the object of all parties to put an end to the enormous expense which, every day that the war lasts, is increased, and no doubt is entertained by the well-informed that Russia is in earnest, and will go through with it firmly and sincerely. The most unpleasant incident is the difference with America, which has a bad aspect, but when they learn that we are going to make peace with Russia we flatter ourselves the Americans will become reasonable.[1] If a war should ensue it would be still more insane than the Russian war, for we should be fighting absolutely for no object whatever, and merely from the collision of the proud and angry feelings of the two nations. Neither would gain anything if the other were to give way and concede all that is in dispute as to the Central American question.

Footnote 1: [Differences had arisen between the British and the American Governments in consequence of the enlistment of American citizens in the British army during the war, and also with reference to the British possessions in Central America.]

_February 7th._--Nothing can be more extraordinary than the lull here, after so much sound and fury, while the negotiations and question of peace or war are pending. There is evidently a complete acquiescence in the coming peace, though if the terms are not as stringent as people expect, there will be a great deal of grumbling and abuse of the Government.

The case with America looks bad, but nobody can seriously believe that war between the two countries can possibly arise out of such questions as those now pending. It will probably end in the return of Crampton, and the return of Buchanan, suspension of diplomatic relations for a time, then fresh negotiations and a reconciliation, but no war.

[Sidenote: THE LIFE PEERAGE QUESTION.]

_February 9th._--The debate in the House of Lords on the Wensleydale Peerage was interesting but inconclusive. Lyndhurst made, as usual, a wonderful speech for his age. He contrived with much dexterity to avoid the question of legality, which he evidently thought he could not disprove; Campbell and St. Leonards boldly pronounced it illegal; Brougham admitted the legality; all the lawyers but the Chancellor are dead against the Life Peerage. Out of the House, Lushington is clear for it; Pemberton Leigh against; both of them have been offered and have refused peerages. The result appears to be that the patent is not illegal, but that there was no sufficient cause, and therefore that it was a great folly to deviate from the usual course in Parke's case. It is awkward, and both the Opposition and the Government seem very much puzzled what to do. The best course on the whole seems to be (and it probably will so end) to confer on the Baron an hereditary peerage, and let the question of life peers stand over for the present, to be better considered and discussed hereafter when circumstances may require such a measure.

Palmerston made a very good speech last night on the American questions, judicious and becoming, and it was very well received. According to present appearances the Government is in no danger of being turned out, and if they make a peace which satisfies, and bring in and pass some good measures, they may actually become strong.

_February 15th._--While the world is waiting with tolerable patience for the opening of the negotiations, it has got two subjects to occupy and interest it, and to give rise to plenty of discussion and dispute. The first is the Life Peerage question, which is become very embarrassing to its opponents and its advocates. There is a great majority of the lawyers against it, but more on the score of its being improper and inexpedient, _perhaps_ unconstitutional, than that it is absolutely illegal. The highest authority in favour of it seems to be Dr. Lushington, who refused to be made a peer when a peerage was pressed upon him. The Government are determined to fight it out, and on no account to give way. Nobody knows with whom the project originated, but there is a very general idea that it was with the Prince. General Grey, however, told his brother, the Earl, that the Prince had nothing to do with it, and that His Royal Highness knew nothing of the matter till after it had been settled. I cannot see how it can be _illegal_, and neither the danger nor the inexpediency of making Life Peers is quite apparent to me; but I think it has been a blunder, and that so great a novelty ought not to have been suddenly sprung upon the world without any attempt to ascertain how it would be regarded, and Derby's argument it is very difficult to meet. He says that when a certain prerogative has not been exercised for 400 years, such long disuse of it, if it does not amount to an abrogation of it, at all events throws such a doubt upon it as to make the exercise of it now exceedingly questionable, and it appears by the precedents that in every case of a Life Peerage it was done _consensu procerum_, or _consensu procerum et communitatis_, that is, by consent of the Lords, or by Act of Parliament. The whole question is so obscure and uncertain, that it is impossible to come to any satisfactory conclusion drawn from precedents and usage. In spite of the resolution of the Government, I doubt whether they will not be compelled to give way in some manner, for the Opposition appear to be equally resolved not to let Baron Parke take his seat.

The other subject is Sir John McNeill's report,[1] which has already elicited violent articles in the papers, and will occasion hot debates in the House of Commons, perhaps in both Houses. The report furnishes a strong _primâ facie_ case against Airey and Gordon, Q.M. and A.Q.M. Generals, and _par ricochet_ against Hardinge himself, also against Lucan and Cardigan. The accused parties vehemently complain, and insist upon being allowed to vindicate themselves. Probably in the course of the discussions a good deal of the truth, but not all, will come out. It may be doubted whether there is any part of our military administration, as well as of our military operations during this war, on which it is possible to reveal and explain everything without showing up the French, and this has been the reason why all investigations and explanations have had such imperfect and unsatisfactory results. If the charges of McNeill are true, it seems to me that the man most to blame was Raglan, who was supreme, omnipotent, and responsible, and who ought not to have allowed the evils, which were notorious, to go on accumulating, without applying those effectual remedies which, according to the report, were abundantly at his disposal; but of course everybody will shrink from casting the blame posthumously upon him. The 'Times' has now found that the losses and sufferings of the army were erroneously and wrongfully attributed to the Government at home. McNeill has brought back with him notes of conversations with Raglan, in which Raglan told him that most if not all of the things he had been so bitterly reproached for were all owing to the opposition and contradiction he met with from the French, Canrobert especially.

Cowley, who called on me the day before yesterday, said he should be very glad to have peace concluded, in order that our intimate connexion and dependence on each other might be at an end, for the difficulties arising therefrom, and the impossibility of placing any reliance on the French Ministers, were a perpetual source of annoyance. He thinks the Emperor honest and true, but that he is surrounded by a parcel of men every one of whom is dishonest and false. The Emperor knows this, and knows what is thought of his ministers, but he says 'What am I to do? and where can I find better men who will enter my service?'

[Sidenote: THE CONFERENCE IN PARIS.]

Clarendon came here to-day to take leave of me on going to the Conference in Paris. He talks despondingly, but less about making peace than about making one that will be acceptable here. He augurs well from the choice of Russian Plenipotentiaries who are both personally agreeable to him, for he knows Orloff very intimately. When he took leave of Brunnow three years ago he said to him, 'If ever you see a good chance of peace, let me know,' and now Brunnow has sent him a message reminding him of what he had said, and telling him he now saw it. It was Clarendon who fixed on Paris for the Conference, everybody else being against it, especially the Emperor Napoleon and Palmerston, but Clarendon thought the advantage of having personal communication with the Emperor himself outweighed every other consideration, and he is right. Louis Napoleon will be the arbiter, and the struggle will be between England and Russia to get possession of him. Brunnow arrived at Paris to-day, the first arrival of the Plenipotentiaries, and he was received with great acclamations and manifestations of joy. Clarendon is dissatisfied at Brunnow's having got there first as if to steal a march on him, but this is unreasonable, as no particular day was fixed for their coming at once, and Clarendon might have been the first if he had chosen it, and Cavour is to be there to-day or to-morrow.

Footnote 1: [Sir John McNeill had been sent to the Crimea and Constantinople to investigate the causes of the sufferings of the troops in the winter 1854-55.]

_February 21st._--A week has passed since most of the Plenipotentiaries arrived at Paris, and we hear nothing of what has been going on amongst them; at least I hear nothing except that Clarendon writes word he is quite satisfied with the Emperor--the Hollands, that all sorts of intrigues are rife, Brunnow, Morny, and Madame de Lieven closeted together for hours, and Madame de Lieven writes to me in melancholy mood, saying she anticipates many difficulties, and complaining of the _exigeances_ which she hears of as probable, and how ungenerous as well as impolitic it is to make no allowance for the difficulty of the Emperor's position _vis à vis_ of his own people, and to bear so hard upon him. From all this I infer that the Russians have been informed that the Emperor Napoleon has engaged to back us up in our _exigeances_, the principal of which is probably the dismantling of Nicolaieff; this may be inferred from what has appeared in the French press. The 'Journal des Débats' published an article saying we had no right to demand this, to which the 'Siècle' replied asserting we had a right, and the article in the 'Siècle' was copied into the 'Moniteur,' which was tantamount to a recognition and approval of it. There are rumours afloat here that matters are not going on satisfactorily at Paris, and, taking all these things together, it looks as if the horizon was a little overcast, but as Orloff was only to arrive at Paris last night nothing essential can as yet have passed. Meanwhile this country remains in the same passive and expectant state, so far behaving very well that there is not the least stir or any attempt to make peace more difficult, not a word said in Parliament, no meetings or petitions, the 'Times' nearly silent, and only an undergrowl from time to time from the Radical or malignant journals. But all who have had any opportunity of testing the state of public feeling agree that the peace, be it what it may, will be taken with regret, and that if Clarendon were to return having broken off the negotiations, and to announce that the war would go on, he would be hailed with the greatest enthusiasm, and the ardour for war would break out with redoubled force.

While this lull has been going on upon the great question, the world has been less passionately moved and interested by the affair of the Wensleydale Peerage, and nobody has talked of anything else for the last ten days but this and the Crimean Report. The general feeling amongst the lawyers and in society is against the Life Peerage, but the Government are very reluctant to give way and to own themselves beaten upon it. To-night is the great, and, it may be hoped, final struggle in the House of Lords upon it, when nobody doubts that the Government will be beaten.

Last night the Evangelical and Sabbatarian interest had a great victory in the House of Commons, routing those who endeavoured to effect the opening of the National Gallery and British Museum on Sunday. The only man of importance who sustained this unequal and imprudent contest was Lord Stanley. At this moment cant and Puritanism are in the ascendant, and so far from effecting any anti-sabbatarian reform, it will be very well if we escape some of the more stringent measures against Sunday occupations and amusements with which Exeter Hall and the prevailing spirit threaten us.

[Sidenote: LORD CLARENDON IN PARIS.]

_February 24th._--A letter from Lady Clarendon, who says 'the report about things going ill is false, and as yet things have hardly begun. The Emperor in feelings and opinions is everything that Clarendon could desire.' Madame de Lieven received Clarendon _à bras ouverts_, but said very little to him. This morning I called on George Lewis, and had a long talk about the prospects of peace. He said Palmerston, according to his ancient custom, was doing all he could to extort as much as possible from Russia, writing to Clarendon in this strain constantly and urging him to insist on more and more concessions; but Lewis thinks notwithstanding this that Palmerston has quite made up his mind for peace, and that he makes demands very often with the expectation of being refused, and the intention of not insisting on them if he finds a very determined resistance. One point of difference is Kars; the Russians not unfairly wish to have some equivalent for surrendering it, and Palmerston insists that they are not entitled to any. In the preliminaries it was settled that we were to restore all our conquests, and they were in return to give up part of Bessarabia. At that time Kars was not taken, and now they say the relative positions of the parties are altered, and 'if we are to restore Kars, that ought to be set against the restoration of Kinburn, the part of the Crimea you occupy, &c., and having got an equivalent in Kars, you ought to relax your demand for Bessarabia.' To this Palmerston replies that the Russians are to guarantee the integrity of the Turkish dominions, of which Kars is a part, and therefore their restoration of it is a matter of course for which no equivalent is necessary. This argument is not logical, and no arbitrator would admit it. It is a good point to wrangle upon, and if the Russians knock under it will be because they are resolved to submit to any terms rather than not have peace.

It is much the same thing about Nicolaieff, as to which the Emperor appears at present disposed to back us up. Lewis disapproves of our _exigeances_ and Palmerston's tone. He thinks on both points the Russians have good cases, and that Palmerston and Clarendon are only fighting for them in order to have a more plausible and showy peace to set before the country. He says we never thought of demanding the destruction of the docks of Nicolaieff _at first_, and that our demanding it now is a mere afterthought, and in pursuance of the plan of starting as many demands as we can to take the chance of what we can get. Lewis disapproves of this course, and urged me to encourage Clarendon not to lend himself to exigencies unjust in themselves, but to do what he really thinks right and necessary without fear of the consequences.

[Sidenote: DEBATE ON LIFE PEERAGES.]

When we had done talking of this matter he said he wanted to speak to me about the Peerage question, which had assumed a shape which he thought menaced great embarrassment, if not danger. The Government, he said, would not give way, and he was himself opposed to their doing so; but what was to be done? I said I did not see what the Government could do, nor why they should not give way when they had resolved to fight and had been fairly beaten; but he thought they should stultify themselves by acknowledging they had been wrong, and that such a course would oblige the Chancellor to resign. I controverted these propositions and said they would stultify themselves much more, if from motives of vanity and pride they chose to let the House of Lords remain without that assistance to obtain which was the pretext for Parke's creation. On the whole, Lewis seemed to think the least objectionable course would be to pass a bill enabling the Crown to make a certain number of Life Peers, but he overlooked the fact that this would be as much a confession of error, and an acknowledgement that the Queen had no such prerogative, as to make Lord Wensleydale an hereditary Peer. My advice was to make him an hereditary Viscount. I was obliged to go away and had not time to talk it out. In the afternoon, I spoke to Campbell and Lyndhurst about it, and asked what they proposed, and how the difficulty was to be got over. They naturally want the Government to knock under and give up the hereditary peerage; they both scouted the idea of Parke coming down to the House of Lords and insisting on being admitted and making a scene. Lyndhurst to-night is to give notice of motion for a Committee to consider the Appellate Jurisdiction.

_February 27th._--The debate in the Lords on Monday night affords a prospect of an amicable termination of the Peerage case, but the Government still have a lingering hope that by some management and contrivance they may avoid the necessity of submitting to their defeat and acting accordingly. There is to be a Committee on the Appellate Jurisdiction, and they think they may obtain some report which may enable them to get out of their scrape, but the only way I can make out by which they think of doing this is to lay the foundation of a bill to enable the Crown to make a limited number of Life Peers. This would, however, be a more formal acknowledgement of error, and that the Queen does not possess the prerogative, than any other course. I expect they will at last be driven to adopt the course I recommended, that of making Parke a Viscount, hereditary of course.

Last night, Disraeli made a bitter attack on the Government, to which Labouchere replied with a spirit for which nobody gave him credit. The Opposition displayed great warmth, and a disposition to show serious fight on any occasion they could find. Certainly the Government cuts a very poor figure, and it is difficult not to think that as soon as the all absorbing question of peace or war is decided, they will be much put to it to defend themselves, unless they conduct affairs much better for the future than they have done up to the present time. Hitherto they have presented a series of blunders, failures, and exposures. First of all the Peerage question; then, much worse, in the House of Commons, Lowe's Bill on Shipping Dues, which Palmerston was obliged to withdraw last night, not at all creditably, and the failure of which was in a great measure attributable to Lowe's very injudicious speech, which, as he is the organ of the Board of Trade in the House of Commons, was in itself a great evil and misfortune. George Grey's Bill on County Police meets with such opposition that though it is a very good measure he will probably not be able to carry it. But still worse than these are the case of the Crimean Report with all its incidents, one blunder after another, and the wretched exhibition of Monsell in moving the Ordnance Estimates, amounting to a complete break-down. All these things, one after another, place the Government in a very weak and contemptible position, and show that in spite of Palmerston's having recovered a good deal of his personal popularity in the House of Commons, his Government has no strength, and his being able to go on at all is only owing to the peculiar circumstances in which the country is placed, and the extreme difficulty of any other Government being formed which would be palateable to the country, more efficient, and therefore stronger and more durable than the present.

To-morrow I purpose going to Paris to see and hear what is going on at this interesting moment.

[Sidenote: A VISIT TO PARIS.]

_Paris, March 1st_, 1856.--I left London on Thursday with M. de Flahault and my brother. We slept at Boulogne, and after a prosperous journey in all its stages, found myself in my old quarters at the Embassy yesterday evening at seven o'clock. I had hardly arrived before a card came from Morny, who gave a great evening party with two _petites pièces_ and music. I went there with Lady Cowley. The crowd was so great that I saw nothing whatever of the spectacle, but was pretty well amused, for I met some old acquaintance, made some new ones, and was presented to some of the celebrities of the day. I was much struck with the ugliness of the women, and the extreme _recherche_ of their costumes. Nature has done nothing for them, their _modistes_ all that is possible. The old friends I met were La Marre and Bourqueney, whom I have not seen since he was Secretary of Embassy to Guizot, when we had so much to do together about the affairs of the East. I made acquaintance with Fleury, the Empress's _Grand Écuyer_, renewed it with Bacciochi, and I was presented to Cavour and the Grand Vizier, as little like the _beau idéal_ of a Grand Vizier as can well be imagined, but by all accounts a Turk _comme il y en a peu_. He is a very little, dark, spare, mild-looking man, speaks French perfectly, and exceedingly clever, well-informed, enlightened, and honourable. He was Grand Vizier once before, and owes his present elevation to his great personal merit. He accepted the post with reluctance, feeling sure Stratford would torment him to death and get him turned out again, but it seems as if his high qualities, and the general respect with which he is regarded, would enable him to maintain himself against all intrigues, and even against Stratford's predominance. I met Clarendon, but had hardly any opportunity of talking to him, as he was every moment interrupted by people come up to do civilities to him. He had just time to tell me that matters are going on very slowly, and that he sees no reason why he should not be kept here for the next six months. Orloff had met him _à bras ouverts_ and renewed their old Petersburg friendship. Brunnow he is disgusted with, and says he has made a bad impression here. He told me he had said to Brunnow: 'You were in England long enough to know what a special pleader is; well, if all other trades should fail you, take to that.'

Orloff spoke very frankly about the war, and the conduct of the late Emperor, which he had always regarded as insane in sending Menschikoff to Constantinople. If he had sent him, Orloff, instead, he would answer for it, there would have been no war. Then marching into the Principalities, and finally not accepting the modifications of the Vienna Note. After this, Orloff said, he had declined to have anything more to do with those affairs, and had retired in disgust. He thought Nicholas's mind had undergone a change after he had reached sixty years of age.

Clarendon said he was delighted with the Emperor and liked him better and better every time he saw him. I met Walewski, who said he wanted to talk to me, when he expressed great anxiety to know the state of opinion in England, and talked of the chances of peace, and particularly wished to know if I thought Palmerston really and sincerely desired peace. I told him the exact truth as to opinion in England, and said I believed Palmerston was now sincere in wishing to make peace, but that it was in his nature to be _exigeant_, and he thought it necessary to be so now because it was of great moment to him to present to the country a peace with as many concessions as possible from Russia. I said it depended on France after all, and then I found that while they thought Bomarsund ought to be an indispensable condition, Nicolaieff ought not; and so we parted, and I promised to dine with him on Monday.

[Sidenote: LORD COWLEY ON THE NEGOTIATIONS.]

This morning after breakfast I had a long conversation with Cowley. He did not speak despondingly of the peace, but he dilated on the difficulty of coming to satisfactory terms, and such as Clarendon could consent to, which he attributes principally to the French, who, having gained all the glory they want for the satisfaction of their national vanity, have no longer any desire to go on with the war, and we are placed by them in a fix. 'If,' he said, 'our army was in Asia Minor he should not care, because then we might say to them, do just what you please, make peace if it suits you, we shall not resent it or have any quarrel with you, but we will carry on the war on our own account. As it is, if we insist on renewing the war, the French _cannot_, and would not abandon us, and leave us to be attacked by superior Russian armies; they would therefore very reluctantly go on with the war, but it would be well known that we were dragging them on with us, and the exasperation against us would be great and general, and, say what we might, a quarrel between France and England would infallibly ensue.' He said all the objections he had entertained against Paris being the place of conference had been more than realised, and that the thing to have done would have been to have it in some dull German town, where there would have been no amusements and occupations, and no intrigues, and where they would have applied themselves vigorously to their work in order to get it done as quickly as possible. I have not, however, as yet made out what intrigues there are, but there is of course a vast deal of _commérage_ going on.

The conferences take place every other day, beginning at one, and they generally last about four hours. Walewski presides, and, they say, does it pretty well; M. Benedetti, the _Chef de Département in the Foreign Office, is the _Protocollist and Rédacteur; the manner of it is conversational, but they occasionally make speeches, Walewski told me. I asked Clarendon in the evening how they were going on, and he said he thought they were making a little progress, but that the French did all they could to render it impossible.

I called on Madame de Lieven in the morning, who did not seem to know much beyond what lies on the surface. She is craving for news and eager for peace. Orloff has kept aloof from her, to her great mortification, and rather to the malicious satisfaction of her enemies, but he went to see her at last the day before yesterday, and, I suppose, accounted for the delay, for she spoke of him as if they were friends, though of course she would take care not to say a word of complaint or to have it supposed, if she could help it, that he had neglected her. She complained that in our _exigeance_ we did not make allowance enough for the difficulties of the Emperor of Russia's position, for, however necessary peace might be to Russia, there is a very great party there who from pride and obstinacy would carry on the war at all risks and hazards. She talked much of the enormous faults that had been committed throughout the whole of the Eastern Question, and of the severe retribution the pride of the late Emperor had drawn down on his country, and remarked, which is quite true, that this would be the first time in the history of Russia in which she had made a disadvantageous peace; for even in her wars against Napoleon, when she had suffered defeat after defeat, she had still concluded peace with a gain of territory. I saw the Hollands, Guizot at Madame de Lieven's door, called on Lady Clarendon, and then went to ride with Lady Cowley in the Bois, and so the evening and the morning were the first day. The weather is cold and gloomy, and I don't think I shall stay here long.

_March 3rd._--Went about visiting yesterday, and at night to the Tuileries, an evening party and play, two small pieces; the Emperor was very civil to me as usual, came up to me and shook hands; he talked to Orloff and to Clarendon, then the Grande Maîtresse told him the Empress was ready, when he went out and came back with her on his arm, Mathilde, Princess Murat, and Plon Plon following. As the Emperor passed before me, he stopped and presented me to the Empress. I was introduced to Orloff, and in the course of the evening had a long talk with Brunnow, who said _they_ had made all the advances and concessions they could, and it was for us to move towards peace, and not to advance one step and then retreat two.

This morning I went to see the opening of the legislative bodies, and hear the Emperor's Speech. It was a gay and pretty sight, so full of splendour and various colours, but rather theatrical. He read his speech very well and the substance of it gave satisfaction; it was not easy to compose it, but he did it exceedingly well, and steered clear of the ticklish points with great adroitness and tact. It sounded odd to English ears to hear a Royal Speech applauded at the end of each paragraph, and the shouts of _'Vive l'Empereur'_ from the Senators and Deputies.

After Cowley came home he began talking over the state of affairs, and the peace we are going to make, about which his grief and disappointment are overflowing. He says the Emperor had the best intentions, but has been beset with men who were determined on peace for their own ends, and whom he could not resist. What he blames him for is not having at once said that he would go so far with us and no further, and not have allowed us to delude ourselves with expectations of support from him that were not to be realised. He says it is now all over, the matter decided, it will proceed rapidly, and all be finished by Easter.

[Sidenote: A DINNER AT COUNT WALEWSKI'S.]

_At night._--I have been dining with Walewski, a very handsome dinner to the Sardinians, and a party afterwards. Knowing none of the people, it was a bore; I found nobody to converse with but Cavour and Flahault; talked over the state of affairs with the latter and our discontents. He said the Emperor could not refuse, and when Clarendon came over and found His Majesty's conversation so satisfactory, he was misled by it and fancied he should obtain his support to all our demands; he owned that it would have been better if the Emperor had been more explicit. When I got home I found Cowley, who was engaged in drawing up a statement of the comparative state of Russia, as to her aggressive power against Turkey before the war and now, after peace has been made. He is doing this for Clarendon and to assist him in making his case good in Parliament when the peace is attacked, as he says it is quite certain it will be. I asked him what were the points on which the Russians made the most difficulty. He said on _all_ except Bomarsund. He is quite convinced that Walewski has played false, and that he has made known to Orloff exactly what he must give up, and when he may be stout.

_March 5th._--Little to record; Cowley continues talking to me of the state of affairs as it is and as it might have been, and is excessively dejected and disgusted at the idea of the peace he is about to sign; he thinks it neither creditable nor likely to be durable, but we start from such different points of view that it is impossible for us to agree. He harps upon the evil done by having the Conference here, and certainly the advantage Clarendon promised himself from having it here has proved null, for the Emperor does not send for him, having no mind to talk to him, and he will not ask an audience of the Emperor, though Cowley urges him very much to do it. He acknowledges, however, that it would be now too late, and that nothing more can be done; he thinks Clarendon will bring himself with great reluctance to sign such a Treaty; but he must swallow the pill, however bitter. The bitterness proceeds from having had such vast pretensions and having encouraged, if not held, such lofty language.

It is no wonder that this Government want to get their army home when typhus is raging there, and they have by their own account 22,000 men in hospital, while ours is quite healthy. We took all sorts of precautions, and strongly advised the French to do the same, and to adopt a sanitary plan we imparted to them; they held it cheap, did nothing, and here are the consequences. It is said that while those who have been in the Crimea and have distinguished themselves are eager for peace, those who have not yet earned medals are averse to peace, and that there will be a good deal of jealousy between the regiments.

_March 6th._--We talked yesterday morning about the origin of the Austrian proposals, and Cowley said he had never been able exactly to make out whether the scheme had originated at Vienna or here, but he was inclined to believe that the first hint was given by Austria, and that Walewski then put the thing on paper, which was sent to Vienna and returned thence in the shape of a proposal. Bourqueney first brought it from Vienna, Buol having obtained his Emperor's consent to it. Cowley told me Buol had been all along willing to join us in the war, but the Emperor never would consent to it. Cowley's notions are that we never ought to have listened to any intervention, nor to any proposals for peace but from Russia herself, that we should have made her sue for peace. He would have had our demands from the first stated distinctly, and have allowed of nothing but acceptance or refusal; he would never have agreed to the article for the cession of Bessarabia, nor have asked for territory at all. If it could have been managed he would have preferred giving the Principalities to Austria, who should for them give up Lombardy to Sardinia. Not a bad idea. By the by, it is much noticed that in the Emperor's Speech he calls the King of Sardinia the King of Piedmont, probably without any particular meaning or intention, but they say he never does anything without a meaning. I rode to the new racecourse yesterday, near the Bois de Boulogne, and went to the Opera last night to see a beautiful new ballet, _'Le Corsaire.'_ Went to Passy to see the Delesserts, who were out.

[Sidenote: BITTERNESS IN FRENCH SOCIETY.]

In this head quarter of gossip every trifle makes a noise, a little scene in society excites interest and shows the continued violence of party feeling. A party dined at Lord Holland's and more came in the evening, mostly, as it happened, Orleanists, for the Hollands live with all parties indiscriminately. There were Mesdames de Rémusat, d'Haussonville, and several others of that colour, when the door opened and MM. de Flahault and Morny were announced, on which the women all jumped up like a covey of partridges and walked out of the room, without taking any notice of the men. It is said that the Orleanist party entertain a peculiar rancour against M. de Flahault for having seen behind a door or a curtain the arrest of General Changarnier on the 2nd of December, which he afterwards had the folly to avow.

_At night._--Just before dinner came an invitation to go to the Tuileries to-night, which with much reluctance I was forced to do. Two _petites pièces_ as on Sunday. I did not attempt to get into the gallery, and sat in the next room, first with Brunnow, then with the Grand Vizier, who is become a great friend of mine. The Emperor did nothing but take off one Plenipotentiary after another: first Clarendon, next Buol, then Orloff, and lastly Walewski, and probably more was done there than at the Conference in the morning. Brunnow and Walewski both told me the affair was progressing, and Cowley seemed very low coming home. His dejection is extreme, and he said this morning that he could not recover from his extreme disappointment at the conduct of the Emperor, that he had always had a bad opinion of Walewski, and no reliance on him or any of the ministers, but he would have staked his life on the Emperor's remaining true to us, that he had always assured our Government that they might depend implicitly on him, and it was a bitter mortification to him to have been deceived himself and to deceive them. I asked him how Clarendon felt all this, and he said Clarendon had never spoken to him about it, and preserved a calmness which astonished him. 'What,' I asked, 'did the Cabinet at home say?' He said, 'They seemed to place entire confidence in Clarendon, and to leave all power and responsibility to him.'

_March 8th._--Called on M. de Greffuhle yesterday, whom I had not seen for years. He is eighty, enormously rich, full of activity and intelligence, Orleanist by social habits, but well affected towards this Government and not hostile to the Emperor, though despising his Government. He said that he was _compelled_ to make peace, and that it would cost him his Crown if he did not; that _something_ would happen and then he would be upset, so great would be the consequences of his running counter to the universal desire for peace here; that the finances are in a very difficult state and there must be another loan, but it would not be contracted like the last, which was a piece of absurd _charlatanerie_.

I went in the afternoon to see the Imperial stables, a wonderful establishment; and then the stallions, near Passy. In the evening to Madame Baudon's, where I was presented to General Cavaignac, but had no conversation with him. He is a tall, gentlemanlike man with a very military air. I was surprised to see him there in the midst of the Legitimists, he, a republican, but it seems he was once near marrying Madame Baudon, who was _sous-gouvernante des Enfants de France_ when Madame de Gontaut was Gouvernante.

_March 9th._--Went about visiting as usual. Called on Achille Fould, who introduced me to Magne, Minister of Finance, said to be a great rogue. Everything here is intrigue and jobbery, and I am told there is a sort of gang, of which Morny is the chief, who all combine for their own purpose and advantage: Morny, Tould, Magne, and Rouher, Minister of Commerce. They now want to get out Billault, Minister of the Interior, whom they cannot entirely manage, and that ministry is necessary to them, on account of the railroads, which are under his management. Fould was full of civilities and offers of services, and he told me the Emperor has a mind to talk to me; whether anything will come of it I know not. I went thence to Madame de Galliera's, where I met Thiers and made a _rendez-vous_ with him for to-day; then to Madame de Lieven who had had Orloff with her; lastly to Madame de Girardin and renewed our old acquaintance, dined with Delmar, and came home to a great party here.

[Sidenote: CONVERSATION WITH M. THIERS.]

_March 10th._--I called on Thiers yesterday, and had a long talk with him; he declared he was happier unemployed and quite free than he had ever been; he had been all for the war, and was now as much for peace--like every other Frenchman he considered it a necessity; anxious as ever for the English alliance, and ridiculed the idea that we had not accomplished everything that our honour and glory required; bitter against this Government, and maintained that the Emperor might very safely relax the severity of it without giving up anything; indignant with the peculation and corruption that prevailed, and the abominable acts of injustice committed, one of which he mentioned towards his own family. Very pleasant as usual.

The news of the day was the dangerous illness of King Jerome, whose life hangs on a thread. This morning I went to St. Germains to see a stag hunt in the forest--a curious sight, with the old-fashioned _meute_; the officers, and those privileged to wear the uniform, in embroidered coats, jackboots, and cocked hats; _piqueurs_ on horseback and foot with vast horns wound round their bodies; the costume and the sport exactly as in the time of Louis XIV., rather tiresome after a time. The old chateau is a melancholy _délabré_ building, sad as the finishing career of its last Royal inhabitant. These recollections come thick upon one--Anne of Austria and the Fronde, Louis XIV. and Mademoiselle de la Vallière--for here their lives began. When the Queen was here she insisted on being taken up to see Mademoiselle de la Vallière's apartment, to mark which some slight ornaments remain. Here too James II. held his dismal Court and came to his unhappy and bigoted end. After it ceased to be a palace, it became successively a prison, a school, and a barrack, and now the Emperor has a fancy to restore it. I went at night to a great concert at Walewski's, where I fell in with Clarendon, and found he was quite prepared to make peace even on such terms as he can get, in which I encouraged him, and to my surprise he said he did not think it would be a bad peace, though it was not so good as we might have got if the generals had done all they might, or if we had had another campaign. He asked me how I thought people would look on it in England, and I told him from all I heard I thought _now_ the wish was for peace, and that the peace would be well enough taken. This he now thinks himself, and he said peace would certainly be concluded before the end of the month.

_March 15th._--From Cowley's account the Conferences appear to be drawing to an end, as a committee has been formed to draw up the Treaty. It consists of Cowley, Bourqueney, Brunnow, Cavour, Buol, and the Grand Vizier. Cowley is still bemoaning the insufficiency of the terms, and while he admits the necessity of peace here, maintains that if the Emperor would only have joined us in insisting upon the terms we wished to impose, it is certain the Russians would have consented to everything, for he says they now know from unquestionable information that the Russians expected much harder terms. The Emperor was, however, so beset by his _entourage_, and so afraid of running the slightest risk of the Russians breaking off the negotiations, that he would not insist on anything which he was not certain the Russians would agree to, and Cowley says he thinks Clarendon was not so firm as he might have been, and if he had pressed the Emperor more strongly, that the latter would have yielded and told Orloff that, though anxious to make peace, he was still more anxious to continue on good terms with us, and that if the Russian Government wanted peace, they would only have it on such and such terms. All this may be true, and I am myself inclined to think the Russians would have agreed to our terms, if those terms had been heartily backed up by the Emperor; but except to give something more of a triumph to the English public, I am not of opinion that the difference between what we required and what we shall get is worth much. When the _dénouement_ is before the world, it will appear how insane it was to plunge into such a war, and that the confusion and unsettled state of affairs which will be the result of it are more dangerous to the stability of the Turkish Empire than the ambitious designs of Russia ever were. Whether the Emperor Nicholas was premature or not in his idea of 'the sick man,' it will soon appear how sick the man will be left by the doctors who have stepped in to save him, and I believe the _bouleversement_ of the old Turkish dominion will have been greatly accelerated by the war and the consequences which will flow from the successes of the allies.

[Sidenote: THE CIRCASSIANS.]

What Cowley particularly laments over is having failed to dismantle Nicolaieff and to stop the outlet from the Bug to the Black Sea, and having got no satisfactory arrangement with regard to the Circassian coast and the contiguous provinces which were ceded to Russia by the Treaty of Adrianople. We wanted that Russia should acknowledge the independence of these provinces or of some part of them; but I cannot see of what use this would have been, and it would have been a matter of the greatest difficulty how to secure their independence and under what Government. There is a sort of sympathy with the Circassians in England, which would have made some stipulations with regard to them popular; but the independence would be illusory, Russia would soon reassert her authority, and our stipulations would become a dead letter, or we should be involved in endless disputes without any satisfactory results. As to forming another coalition for the sake of semi-barbarous nationalities on the coasts of the Caspian, nothing would be more impossible. England herself, who will soon recover from her madness, would not hear of it, and France still less. The war was founded in delusion and error, and carried on by a factitious and ignorant enthusiasm, and we richly deserve to reap nothing but mortification and disappointment in return for all the blood and treasure we have spent.

_March 16th._--We passed the day in momentary expectation of hearing of the Empress's confinement. No news arrived, but at six in the morning we were awakened from our beds by the sound of the cannon of the Invalides, which gave notice of a son. Will his fortune be more prosperous than that of the other Royal and Imperial heirs to the throne whom similar salvoes have proclaimed? It is a remarkable coincidence that the confinement was as difficult and dangerous as that of Marie Louise, with the same symptoms and circumstances, and that the _doctor accoucheur_ (Dubois) in this instance was the son of the Dubois who attended the other Empress. From all I hear the event was received here with good will, but without the least enthusiasm, though with some curiosity, and the Tuileries Gardens were crowded. People were invited by the police to illuminate.