CHAPTER V.

Lord Palmerston's Return--The Czar's Designs--Uncertain Prospects--A Dinner of Lawyers--Preparations for War--The Reform Scheme modified--Russian Preparations for War--Entry of the Black Sea--Intrigues of France with Russia--Attacks on Prince Albert--Virulence of the Press--Attitude of Russia--Reluctance on both sides to engage in War--Prince Albert's Participation in Affairs of State--Opening of Parliament--Vindication of Prince Albert--Offer of Marriage of Prince Napoleon to Princess Mary of Cambridge--Publication of the Queen's Speech--The Hesitation of Austria--Justification of the War--The Blue Books--Popularity of the War--Last Efforts for Peace--The Emperor Napoleon's Letter--Lord John's Reform Bill--Difficulties arising--The Greeks--Objections to the Reform Bill--Postponement of the Reform Bill.

LORD PALMERSTON RESUMES OFFICE.

_Bowood, December 26th._--I came here to-day through town, where I saw _en passant_ Granville and Clarendon; received a letter this morning from Graham, telling me everything was arranged and Palmerston would stay, which of course I knew long before. Clarendon thought Newcastle had managed it exceedingly well, inasmuch as by this mixture of conciliation and firmness he had got Palmerston to write and withdraw his resignation, without any conditions; indeed, Clarendon considers that Palmerston has virtually acceded to all the provisions of Lord John's Bill to which he had objected. Whether his actions correspond with this idea we shall see hereafter. The letter he has written they say is 'artful and cunning,' but Aberdeen does not appear dissatisfied with it; and as it is a considerable concession in him to write any letter at all, they are right not to quarrel about the expressions. On the whole, I am now of opinion that Palmerston will be damaged by this proceeding. Nothing could justify his resignation at such a crisis but a case of urgent necessity, and if he really was urged to it by such a necessity, he clearly could not be justified in recalling his resignation five or six days afterwards, finding himself exactly in the same situation as he was in before it. It seems to me that he is certainly on the horns of this dilemma, that he was either wrong in resigning or wrong in returning. I told Lord Lansdowne so, but he did not say much in reply; and I find the language of this place is all favourable to Lord Palmerston, which I presume to be from their sympathising in his objections to Reform; and they throw most of the blame on Aberdeen for writing to him the letter he did, in which no doubt he erred. However, they are all very glad it is made up, and justly think that the less that is said about it hereafter the better. I think now that some steps had been taken towards a reconciliation even before the Thursday when Lady Palmerston spoke to me, and the Queen knew on Thursday that the reconciliation was highly probable; for she wrote to Lord Lansdowne that evening, and told him he need not come to Windsor on Friday, which letter he received just as he was going to set off. The Tories and the Radicals are equally puzzled, perplexed, and disgusted, and do not know what to say. They accordingly solace themselves with such inventions and falsehoods as it suits their several purposes to circulate.

Clarendon received a letter from Cowley while I was with him, in which he said he sent him a paper tending to show that the Emperor of Russia was bent upon the destruction of Turkey, and prepared to run every risk, and encounter any enemy, in the pursuit of that object. This is, I think, very likely; and what is equally likely that, _per damna per coedes_, and with much danger and damage to himself, he will accomplish the ruin of the Turk. But all speculation must be vague and fallacious as to the results of such a war as is now beginning.

_January 3rd_, 1854.--I returned from Bowood on Saturday, having had no conversation whatever on politics with Lord Lansdowne--and of course I sought none. News came there that the Turks had accepted the proposal of the Allied Powers to enter into a negotiation, and we are now waiting to see what the Emperor of Russia will be disposed to do; but almost everybody thinks he will refuse to treat, and certainly he will never admit, as the preliminary condition of negotiation, that no former treaties shall be revived. The Cabinet meets to-day for the purpose, I conclude, of resuming the consideration of the Reform Bill. The only thing Lord Lansdowne did say to me was, that he had had several conversations with John Russell when he was at Bowood, and that he thought he had made an impression on him; he evidently expected that Lord John would make concessions in his Bill which might satisfy, or partly so, him and Palmerston.

PREPARATIONS FOR WAR.

_January 5th._--I dined on Tuesday with the Chancellor, Lord Cranworth: an array of lawyers, the Chancellor of Ireland (a coarse, vulgar-looking man, with twitchings in his face), Lord Campbell, Alderson, Coleridge, and the Solicitor-General (Bethell); besides these Aberdeen, Graham, and one or two more men.

I sat next to Graham and had much talk. He said the Cabinet that morning had gone off easily, and he thought matters would proceed quietly now. Palmerston is quite at his ease and just as if nothing had happened, which was exactly like him. Graham thinks the Emperor of Russia is determined on war, and will not consent to negotiate; he said he had been as anxious as any man to maintain peace, but if we were driven to go to war, he was for waging it with the utmost vigour, and inflicting as much injury as we could on Russia, and that we might strike very severe blows. It was commonly supposed Sebastopol was unassailable by sea, but he was not satisfied of that, as they are not in possession of sufficient information to be at all sure about it, but that he did not know what a powerful fleet with the aid of steam could not accomplish. He was inclined to believe that such a fleet might force the entrance to the place and destroy the Russian fleets, but that it would probably cost many ships to effect such an operation. In discussing the probability of Russia and Turkey being brought to terms we agreed that the conditions accepted by the Turks should prove a sufficient basis. When I asked him whether this would not satisfy even Palmerston, and whether he would not be desirous of peace if it could be so brought about, he said he thought not, that Palmerston's politics were always personal, and that nothing would satisfy him now but to _humiliate_ the Emperor.

Yesterday afternoon I saw Clarendon at the Foreign Office. He said the Cabinet went off smoothly enough, and Palmerston did not appear dissatisfied; confirmed what Graham said of his easy manner--no awkwardness or reserve. Aberdeen had written to him in answer to his letter recalling his resignation, saying he wondered he should have thought the matter of the Reform Bill _final_; and John Russell, when it was all over, called on him. The alterations in the Reform Bill were principally these: to extend somewhat the disfranchisement and to give more of the seats to the counties (which was what both Lord Lansdowne and Palmerston wished), and to reduce the county franchise from 20 to 10, taking Locke King's plan, the town franchise to be 6_l._, with three years' rating, as originally proposed. This is intended to admit the working classes; as Clarendon said, the _principle_ of the last Reform Bill having been to _exclude_ them, and this to _admit_ them. It seems now that Lansdowne and Palmerston will not dissent from this plan, though they do not like it. The various propositions were put to the vote _seriatim_ in the Cabinet and carried _nem. diss._, so that, instead of everything having been conceded to Palmerston (as the lying newspapers proclaimed), nothing has been; and he has, on the contrary, knocked under.

Clarendon showed me the Note submitted to the Turkish Government with the proposals as the basis of negotiations, to which we have not yet received a formal answer; but from a confused telegraphic message they think the Turks have accepted them. These terms will then have to go to St. Petersburg. But meanwhile the notification to the Emperor of the orders to our fleets was to reach St. Petersburg this day, and Clarendon thinks it exceedingly likely this will produce an immediate declaration of war on his part. His warlike preparations are enormous, and it is said that the Church has granted him a loan of four and a half millions to defray them. I told Clarendon what Graham had said to me of Palmerston's disposition. He said he did not know, but it was not unlikely, and quite true about personal motives always influencing his conduct; and that he had always pleased himself with the reflexion that the downfall of Louis Philippe might be traced to the Montpensier marriage, which had really been the remote cause of it. Graham had told me that Stratford was now really anxious for peace, for he began to see the possibility of war bringing about the substitution of French influences at Constantinople in place of Russian, and of the two he infinitely preferred the latter. Clarendon confirmed this.

THE ATTACK ON SINOPE.

_January 6th._--All going on very amicably in the Cabinet, and Pam and Johnny the best friends possible, cutting their jokes on each other, and Palmerston producing all his old objections to the Reform Bill just as if it was discussed for the first time. From what has been settled in regard to the fleets at Constantinople I think we are running an enormous risk of some great catastrophe.[1] It appears that Admiral Hamelin declared it was impossible to enter the Black Sea with safety, and Baraguay d'Hilliers agreed with him. Dundas was of the same opinion, but said he was ready to go if ordered. Stratford was not convinced of the danger as Baraguay d'Hilliers was. Before the opinion of the French Admiral could reach Paris orders were sent out for the fleets to enter, and though some discretion is left to the Admirals, the orders are so precise that it is extremely probable they will obey them in spite of the danger, great as it is; for the Black Sea is so dark they can take no observations, and so deep it cannot be sounded, perpetual fogs (which make the darkness), and no harbour where the fleets can take refuge. If the fleets should meet with any serious disaster, the indignation and clamour here would be prodigious, and the most violent accusations would be levelled at the Government. It would be said that they would not let the fleets go during the summer and safe seasons, when they could have done anything they pleased; but, having allowed the Sinope affair to take place, and failed to bring about peace, they now send the fleets when they can do no good and prevent no mischief, and only expose them to damage or destruction.

[Footnote 1: On November 30 the Russian fleet from Sebastopol attacked the Turkish squadron in the harbour of Sinope and destroyed it. It was this violent action on the part of Russia that at once decided the British and French Governments to occupy the Black Sea with their fleets. The Russian ships withdrew within the harbour of Sebastopol, which they never left again. I believe that Admiral Dundas and Admiral Lyons proposed to enter the Black Sea at once and intercept the Russian vessels before they could reach Sebastopol, but this proposal was overruled by the French officers, who were disinclined to act until they received peremptory orders from the Emperor.]

_Broadlands, January 8th._--I came here on Friday; nobody is here but the Flahaults and Azeglio; I walked with Palmerston yesterday and talked of the Turkish question. He thinks the Emperor will not declare war on receiving news of the orders to the fleets, but send some temporising answer. He said that if these orders had been sent four months ago, the whole thing would have been settled, which may or not be true; he is very confident of the success of our naval operations, and of the damage we may do to Russia; he has never alluded to Reform or anything connected with it, and is in very good humour.

NEWSPAPER ATTACKS ON PRINCE ALBERT.

_January 15th._--I have never yet noticed the extraordinary run there has been for some weeks past against the Court, more particularly the Prince, which is now exciting general attention, and has undoubtedly produced a considerable effect throughout the country. It began a few weeks ago in the press, particularly in the 'Daily News' and the 'Morning Advertiser,' but chiefly in the latter, and was immediately taken up by the Tory papers, the 'Morning Herald' and the 'Standard,' and for some time past they have poured forth article after article, and letter after letter, full of the bitterest abuse and all sorts of lies. The 'Morning Advertiser' has sometimes had five or six articles on the same day all attacking and maligning Prince Albert. Many of these are very vague, but the charges against him are principally to this effect, that he has been in the habit of meddling improperly in public affairs, and has used his influence to promote objects of his own and the interests of his own family at the expense of the interests of this country; that he is German and not English in his sentiments and principles; that he corresponds with foreign princes and with British Ministers abroad without the knowledge of the Government, and that he thwarts the foreign policy of the Ministers when it does not coincide with his own ideas and purposes. He is particularly accused of having exerted his influence over this Government to prevent their taking the course which they ought to have done with regard to Turkey, and of having a strong bias towards Austria and Russia and against France. Then it is said that he is always present when the Queen receives her Ministers, which is unconstitutional, and that all the papers pass through his hands or under his eyes. He is accused of interfering with all the departments of government, more particularly with the Horse Guards, and specifically with the recent transactions and disagreements in that office, which led to the retirement of General Brown, the Adjutant-General. Then he and the Queen are accused of having got up an intrigue with foreign Powers, Austria particularly, for getting Palmerston out of office last year; that she first hampered him in the Foreign Office, by insisting on seeing his despatches before he sent them off, and then that she compelled John Russell to dismiss him on the ground of disrespectful conduct to herself, when the real reason was condescension to the wishes of Austria, with which Power the Prince had intimately connected himself. Charges of this sort, mixed up with smaller collateral ones, have been repeated day after day with the utmost virulence and insolence by both the Radical and the Tory journals. For some time they made very little impression, and the Queen and Prince were not at all disturbed by them; but the long continuance of these savage libels, and the effect which their continual refutation has evidently produced throughout the country, have turned their indifference into extreme annoyance. I must say I never remember anything more atrocious or unjust. Delane went to Aberdeen and told him that immense mischief had been done, and that he ought to know that the effect produced was very great and general, and offered (if it was thought desirable) to take up the cudgels in defence of the Court. Aberdeen consulted the Prince, and they were of opinion that it was better not to put forth any defence, or rebut such charges in the press, but to wait till Parliament meets, and take an opportunity to repel the charges there. One of the papers announced that a Liberal member of Parliament intended to bring the matter forward when Parliament meets, but I do not expect he will make his appearance. At present nobody talks of anything else, and those who come up from distant parts of the country say that the subject is the universal topic of discussion in country towns and on railways. It was currently reported in the Midland and Northern counties, and actually stated in a Scotch paper, that Prince Albert had been committed to the Tower, and there were people found credulous and foolish enough to believe it. It only shows how much malignity there is amongst the masses, which a profligate and impudent mendacity can stir up, when a plausible occasion is found for doing so, and how 'the mean are gratified by insults on the high.' It was only the other day that the Prince was extraordinarily popular, and received wherever he went with the strongest demonstration of public favour, and now it would not be safe for him to present himself anywhere in public, and very serious apprehensions are felt lest the Queen and he should be insulted as they go to open Parliament a fortnight hence. In my long experience I never remember anything like the virulence and profligacy of the press for the last six months, and I rejoice that Parliament is going to meet and fair discussion begin, for nothing else can in the slightest degree check it, and this, it may be hoped, will.

VACILLATION OF THE FRENCH.

_January 16th._--The attacks on the Prince go on with redoubled violence, and the most absurd lies are put forth and readily believed. It is very difficult to know what to do, but the best thing will be a discussion in the House of Commons, if possible in both Houses. It is now said that Sir Robert Peel is going to raise one. Clarendon told me yesterday that he should not be surprised if the Emperor of Russia were to recall Brunnow and not Kisseleff, as he is more particularly incensed against England, knowing very well that we have acted consistently and in a straightforward direction throughout, while the French have been continually vacillating, and have kept up a sort of coquetry with him; for example, Castelbajac congratulated the Emperor on the Sinope affair, and said he did so as a Minister, a soldier, and a Christian. A pretty Government to depend on, and which our stupid and ignorant press is lauding to the skies for its admirable and chivalrous conduct as compared to ours.

_January 21st._--For some days past the Tory papers have relaxed their violence against the Court, while the Radical ones, especially the 'Morning Advertiser,' have redoubled their attacks, and not a day passes without some furious article, and very often five or six articles and letters, all in the same strain. It is not to be denied or concealed that these abominable libels have been greedily swallowed all over the country and a strong impression produced. The press has been infamous, and I have little doubt that there is plenty of libellous matter to be found in some of the articles, if it should be deemed advisable for the Attorney-General to take it up. There can be little doubt that the Tory leaders got alarmed and annoyed at the lengths to which their papers were proceeding, and have taken measures to stop them. The Radical papers nothing can stop, because they find their account in the libels; the sale of the 'Advertiser' is enormously increased since it has begun this course, and, finding perfect immunity, it increases every day in audacity and virulence. One of the grounds of attack (in the 'Morning Herald' and 'Standard' principally) has been the illegality of the Prince being a Privy Councillor. In reply to this I wrote a letter (in my own name) showing what the law and practice are, but incautiously said the argument had been advanced by a member of the _Carlton Club_, whereas it was in fact a member of the _Conservative_, and I had imagined the two Clubs were the same. This mistake drew down on me various letters, attacking and abusing me, and for several days the 'Morning Herald' has been full of coarse and stupid invectives against me, supplied by correspondents, who, from the details in their letters, must be persons with whom I live in great social intimacy. They are, however, of a very harmless description, and too dull to be effective.

_January 25th._--I wrote a letter in the 'Times' (signed Juvenal), showing up the lies of the 'Morning Advertiser,' and how utterly unworthy of credit such a paper is. I find Palmerston and Aberdeen have come to an understanding as to what shall be said in the way of explanation, which is a good thing. It is not to be much, and they will tell the same story. One faint ray of hope for peace has dawned. The Emperor on receiving our Note has not recalled Brunnow, but ordered him to ask for explanations, and he is only to withdraw if the answer is of a certain tenor. Clarendon told him he could not give him an answer at the moment, and Seymour had said in the P.S. to his last despatch, 'For God's sake don't give Brunnow any answer for three days.' It is clearly one of two things--the Emperor meditates making peace, or he wants to gain time. The fact is, _he has got the answer_, for our instructions to the Admirals (which were communicated to him) explain our intentions. In a few days more we must receive his reply to the pacific overture.

COUNT ORLOFF'S MISSION TO VIENNA.

_January 29th._--Brunnow has not received his answer, but is to have it on Tuesday, when I imagine he will announce his departure. Kisseleff has not had his either, and there is some disagreement as to the answers between us and the French Government. Clarendon has sent to Paris the answer he proposes to give, but the French wish not to give Kisseleff any answer at all, nor even to tell him what it is, but to send their answer through their Ambassador at Petersburg, to which Clarendon strenuously objects. This is only for the purpose of delay, the Emperor Napoleon being so reluctant to go to war, and anxious to put off the evil day as long as he can. It is not wonderful, for the accounts of the distress in France, the stagnation of trade, and the financial embarrassments, and the consequent alarm that prevails as well as suffering, make it very natural that the Government should shrink from plunging into a war the duration of which is doubtful, but the expense certain. Colloredo told me the other day that he thought Orloff's mission to Vienna afforded a good prospect of peace, because he was sure Orloff would not have accepted the mission unless he had really expected to bring it to a successful issue, but Clarendon told me last night that Orloff is only empowered to propose the same conditions which the Emperor originally insisted on, and that his real object is to detach Austria and Prussia from the alliance, by any means he can and by offering them any terms they please.

The attacks on the Prince are subsiding, except from the 'Morning Advertiser,' which goes doggedly on in spite of its lies being exposed. John Russell told me the other day that soon after the Queen's marriage she asked Melbourne whether the Prince ought to see all the papers and know everything. Melbourne consulted him about it, and he thinks that he consulted the Cabinet, but is not quite sure of this. However, Melbourne and Lord John (and the whole Cabinet if he did consult them) agreed that it was quite proper she should show him and tell him everything, and that was the beginning of his being mixed up in public affairs. Why he did not then begin to be present at her interviews with her Ministers I do not know, but that practice began when Peel came in, and Lord John said he found it established when he came back, and he saw no objection to it. He told me last night that the Queen had talked to him about the present clamour, which of course annoyed her, and she said, if she had had the Prince to talk to and employ in explaining matters at the time of the Bedchamber quarrel with Peel, that affair would not have happened. Lord John said he thought she must have been advised by somebody to act as she did, to which she replied with great candour and naïveté, 'No, it was entirely my own foolishness.' This is the first time I have heard of her acknowledging that it was 'foolishness,' and is an avowal creditable to her sense. Lord John said, when Lord Spencer was consulted on the matter he replied, 'It is a bad ground for a _Whig_ Government to stand on, but as gentlemen you can't do otherwise.'

_February 1st._--Parliament met yesterday, a greater crowd than usual to see the procession. The Queen and Prince were very well received, as well as usual, if not better; but all the _enthusiasm_ was bestowed on the Turkish Minister, the mob showing their sympathy in his cause by vociferous cheering the whole way. The night went off capitally for the Government in both Houses. In the Lords Derby made a slashing speech, but very imprudent, and played into Aberdeen's hands, who availed himself thereof very well, and made a very good answer, which is better to read than it was to hear. Derby afforded him a good opportunity of vindicating the Prince, which he did very effectively, and then Derby followed him and joined in the vindication, but he clumsily allowed Aberdeen to take the initiative. Clarendon answered Clanricarde, who was hostile, but not very bitter; the former showed how much he suffers from want of practice and facility. I thought he would have failed in the middle, but he recovered himself and went on. Derby was put into a great rage by Aberdeen's speech, and could not resist attacking _me_ (whom he saw behind the Throne). He attacked my letter (signed C.), in which I had pitched into the Tories for their attacks on the Prince. I saw his people turn round and look towards me, but I did not care a fig, and was rather pleased to see how what I wrote had galled them, and struck home. In the Commons the Government was still more triumphant. The Opposition were disorganised and feeble; all who spoke on that side took different views, and very little was said. John Russell made a very good speech, and took the bull by the horns about the Prince, entered at once on the subject, and delivered an energetic vindication of and eulogium on him in his best style. It was excellent, and between his speech and Aberdeen's and all those who chimed in, that abomination may be considered to be destroyed altogether, and we shall probably hear no more of it.

OFFER OF MARRIAGE TO PRINCESS MARY.

This evening ---- told me a secret that surprised me much. I asked him casually if he knew for what purpose Prince Napoleon was gone to Brussels, when he told me that he was gone to try and get King Leopold to use his influence here to bring about his marriage with the Princess Mary, the Duke of Cambridge's sister; that for a long time past Palmerston had been strongly urging this match with the Queen, and had written heaps of letters to press it, having been in constant communication about it with Walewski and the Emperor himself. They had made such a point of it that the Queen had thought herself obliged to consult the Princess Mary herself about it, who would not listen to it. The negotiator did not make the proposal more palateable, and he did not recommend himself the more, by suggesting that such a match was very preferable to any little German prince. It is incredible that he should have mixed himself in an affair that he could hardly fail to know must be very disagreeable to the Queen, besides that the Princess is not likely to sacrifice her country and her position for such a speculation, so hazardous and uncertain at best, and involving immediate obligations and necessities at which her pride could not fail to revolt.

_February 2nd._--The above story, put together with some other things, leads to strange conjectures about Palmerston, which seem to justify the suspicions and convictions of the Court and others about him. I have before alluded to his intimate connexion with Walewski, and the notorious favour with which he is regarded by the Emperor, who considers him as his great _appui_ here.

Before proceeding I must, however, refer to another matter, which seems to have no connexion with it. There is always great anxiety on the part of the press to get the Queen's Speech, so as to give a sketch of it the morning of the day when it is made, and those who do not get it are very jealous of those who do. There has been great bother about it on some former occasions, once particularly, because one of the Derbyites gave it to their paper, the 'Morning Herald,' it having been communicated in strict confidence, and according to recent custom, to the leaders of the party. The other day Aberdeen refused to give it even to the 'Times,' and of course to any other paper, and he begged Palmerston not to send it to the 'Morning Post,' which is notoriously his paper. Nevertheless, the Speech appeared in the 'Times,' and what seemed more extraordinary, in the 'Morning Advertiser,' the paper which has been the fiercest opponent of the Government, and the most persevering and virulent of the assailants of the Prince. How these papers got the Speech nobody knows, but as there were four dinners, at which at least a hundred men must have been present, it is easy to imagine that some one of these may have communicated it. Delane has friends in all parties, and he told me that he had no less than three offers of it, and therefore he had no difficulty. But how did the 'Morning Advertiser' come by it? It is politically opposed to both the Ministry and the Derbyites; but it must have got the Speech from some person of one or the other party, with whom it has some community of interest or object. The run upon the Prince was carried on equally by the 'Morning Herald' and the 'Morning Advertiser' till within ten days of the meeting of Parliament, when the former was stopped; the latter never ceased. I have heard it surmised more than once that these attacks proceeded from Paris, and were paid for by the Emperor Louis Napoleon, but I never could believe it. The other day I met M. Alexandre Thomas at dinner at Marble Hill, and we came to town together. He told me he had no doubt the abuse of the Prince was the work of the Emperor, and paid for by him. It did not make much impression on me at the moment; but now, putting all these things together, I cannot help partaking in the opinion that the whole thing has been got up, managed, and paid for by Louis Napoleon, Walewski, and another person here. Brunnow received his answer yesterday, with many civilities and regrets, _de part et d'autre_. Orloff as we hear has failed in his mission to cajole the Austrian Government, but _non constat_ that Austria will act a firm part against Russia. If she would only announce her intention to do so, the matter would probably be settled; for Russia would, as we believe, certainly come to terms, if she was sure of Austria acting against her, so that, in fact, Austria holds the decision in her own hands, and the greatest service she can do to Russia herself would be to compel her to surrender, as she may still do with an appearance of credit and dignity.

PUBLICATION OF OFFICIAL CORRESPONDENCE.

_February 9th._--Nobody now thinks of anything but of the coming war and its vigorous prosecution. The national blood is up, and those who most earnestly deprecated war are all for hitting as hard as we can now that it is forced upon us. The publication of the Blue Books has relieved the Government from a vast amount of prejudice and suspicion. The public judgement of their management of the Eastern Question is generally very favourable, and impartial people applaud their persevering efforts to avert war, and are satisfied that everything was done that the national honour or dignity required. I have read through the thick volumes, and am satisfied that there is on the whole no case to be made against the Government, though there are some things that might perhaps have been better done; but what is there of any sort, or at any time, of which as much may not be said when we have been made wiser by experience and events? These Books are very creditable in the great ability they display. As Lord Ellenborough said in the House of Lords, the case had been most ably conducted, both by Government and its agents. Clarendon's despatches are exceedingly good, and in one respect greatly superior to Palmerston's when he was at the Foreign Office: they are very measured and dignified, and he never descends to the scolding, and the taunts, and sarcasms in which the other delighted. Palmerston always wrote as if his object was to gain a victory in a war of words, and have the best of an argument; Clarendon, on the contrary, keeps steadily in view a great political object, and never says a word but with a view to attain it. Stratford's despatches are very able, and very well written, but they leave the impression (which we know to be the truth), that he has said and done a great deal more than we are informed of; that he is the real cause of this war, and that he might have prevented it, if he had chosen to do so, I have no doubt whatever. His letters have evidently been studiously composed with reference to the Blue Book, and that he may appear in a popular light. I find he has been all the time in correspondence with Palmerston, who, we may be sure, has incited him to fan the flame, and encourage the Turks to push matters to extremities. I should like to know what Palmerston would have said, when he was at the Foreign Office, if one of his colleagues had corresponded with any one of his Ministers abroad, in a sense differing from that in which he himself instructed him. The wonderful thing is the impunity which he continues to enjoy, and how, daring and unscrupulous as he is, and determined to have his own way, he constantly escapes detection and exposure. The good case which the Government has put forward, and the approach of war, have apparently extinguished or suspended all opposition, and the Session, which everybody expected to be so stormy and dangerous, bids fair to be as easy as possible. Great difference of opinion exists as to the wisdom of committing our Baltic fleet to Charles Napier. It was, however, decided at the Cabinet yesterday that he should have it,[1] and we have got a very powerful squadron ready. The war is certainly very popular, but I don't think its popularity will last long when we begin to pay for it, unless we are encouraged and compensated for our sacrifices by some very flattering successes.

[Footnote 1: There was a question of appointing Lord Dundonald, a far abler man; but he was seventy-nine, and besides he made it a condition that he should be allowed to destroy Cronstadt by some chemical process of his own invention.]

_February 15th._--Several days ago there was a short discussion in the House of Lords, in which the Government did not cut a good figure. Aberdeen made a declaration in favour of peace, saying 'war was not inevitable,' which produced an explosion against him, and it was so imprudent _in him_, and so calculated to mislead, that Clarendon insisted on his rising again and saying that no negotiations were going on, threatening to do so himself if Aberdeen did not. He complied, but the whole thing produced a bad effect, although there are no negotiations to which we are a party. Austria is making a new attempt with the Emperor, to which she was encouraged by Orloff before he went. We are satisfied with the conduct of Austria, but though she has rejected the Russian overtures, she will not engage to join us against Russia in certain contingencies. If she would do this, it would most probably settle the affair, and make the Emperor agree to reasonable terms.

LETTER OF NAPOLEON TO NICHOLAS.

This morning appears in all the newspapers the autograph letter of the Emperor Napoleon to the Emperor Nicholas, which has been so much talked of. If the Emperor of Russia at once closes with it, he will place us in a great dilemma, but it may produce peace. On Sunday Clarendon told me all about this letter. The Emperor took it into his head to write it, and sent a copy here for the approval of our Government. Clarendon made many objections, particularly to the suggestion of a simultaneous withdrawal of the Russian troops and the Allied fleets, and to the separate negotiation of Turkey, two points we had all along laid great stress upon. Walewski returned the letter with the objections raised by us, and soon after informed Clarendon that the letter had been altered according to our suggestions, and the objectionable parts omitted; but he did not bring him the amended letter. Clarendon wrote to Cowley, and said what had passed, and that he was glad the alterations had been made, but was surprised the letter, as altered, had not been shown to him. Cowley told Drouyn de Lhuys, who said they had sent the letter to Walewski, and he could not think why Clarendon had not seen it, and he wrote to Walewski desiring him to take it to Clarendon. He did so, when, much to his annoyance as well as surprise, he found that they had only made a few verbal alterations, and left the really objectionable parts nearly the same as before. This may put us in a very awkward position. If the Emperor Nicholas agrees, we must either agree also to what we entirely disapprove, or disavow the French, and perhaps separate from them; and it will be very embarrassing if the Government are asked in Parliament whether they were a party to this letter and its proposals. Clarendon told me this was only one of many instances in which the conduct of the French had been very _louche_ and insincere. He thinks this more attributable to Drouyn than to his master, and Walewski has behaved with great loyalty and straightforwardness; but hardly a week has passed that he has not had to complain of something done by the French Government in a separate or clandestine manner, or of some proposal which they ought not to make, and this makes one of the difficulties of the position of which nobody is aware--a fine prospect to be married to such a people on a great question; but what can be expected from the Government of such a Sovereign and such Ministers? It confirms my long settled opinion, that we are always in extreme danger of being thrown over by them. With regard to the whole question (and omitting these details) the Emperor Napoleon has behaved well enough to us; for he has adhered steadily to the joint policy, though it is his interest to maintain peace, and public opinion in France runs as strongly that way as here it runs in the opposite direction.

The day before yesterday John Russell introduced his Reform Bill, having resisted the most urgent representations and entreaties to postpone it. His speech was very tame, and nothing could be more cold than its reception. The few remarks that were made were almost all against it, or particular parts of it, and it has excited no enthusiasm in any quarter. The prevailing impression is that it will not pass if it is persisted in. If any Reform Bill were to be proposed at all, this does not seem to be a very bad measure, and some points in it are good; but nobody wanted any measure, and the few Radicals who do, do not care for the particular measures Lord John proposes, and ask for other things which he will not hear of, so that he offends and alarms the Conservatives without conciliating the Liberals, and he disgusts and provokes his own adherents by his refusal to defer his Bill. Palmerston and his clique are sure to abuse it, and to employ all the underhand means they can to stir up opposition to it.

INSURRECTION OF THE GREEKS.

_February 20th._--John Russell answered the questions put in the House of Commons about the Emperor Napoleon's letter very dexterously, telling the truth, but in a way not offensive to the Emperor. He also made an excellent speech on the debate on the Blue Books, brought on by Layard in a bitter speech very personal against Clarendon. The House of Commons as well as the country are so excessively warlike that they are ready to give any number of men and any amount of money, and seem only afraid the Government may not ask enough. I expect we shall have had quite enough of it before we have done with this question, and that our successes and the effect produced on Russia will not be commensurate with the prevailing ardour and expectation here. The most serious of all difficulties seems to be rapidly coming, the insurrection of the Greek population; and this is a matter which has already caused a good deal of difference of opinion and debate in the Cabinet, one half wanting to assist in putting down the Greeks, the other half opposing this scheme. The danger of attacking the Greeks is, that we should thereby throw them at once into the arms of Russia, whereas the true policy is to persuade them if possible to be quiet, and induce them to look up to us for protection and future support. It is an element in the question of great importance, and very difficult to deal with. It is disgusting to hear everybody and to see all writers vying with each other in laudation of Stratford Canning, who has been the principal cause of the war. They all think that, if he had been sincere in his desire for peace, and for an accommodation with Russia, he might have accomplished it, but on the contrary he was bent on bringing on war. He said as much to Lord Bath, who was at Constantinople. Lord Bath told him he had witnessed the fleets sailing into the Black Sea, when he replied, 'You have brought some good news, for that is _war_. The Emperor of Russia chose to make it a personal quarrel with me, and now I am revenged.' This Lord Bath wrote to Lady Ashburton, who told Clarendon. I asked John Russell yesterday why he sent Stratford back to Constantinople. He said when he sent him the quarrel was between France and Russia, and only about the Holy Places; they knew nothing there of Menschikoff's demands, and nobody was so qualified as Stratford to assist in settling the original affairs.

LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S REFORM BILL.

_February 25th._--Last night Clarendon made a capital speech in the House of Lords, far superior to any he ever made before, and the best that has yet been made in defence of the Ministerial policy. He has got on wonderfully since the Session began, each of his speeches being much better than the preceding one, till at last he has made one of very great merit and power, as all admit. It was spirited, dignified and discreet. I began to fear he would never get over the misfortune of his want of early practice, and never excel as a speaker; but this speech was so good, that I now hope he will, having acquired confidence and facility, speak up to the level of his ability. The rage for this war gets every day more vehement, and nobody seems to fear anything, but that we may not spend money and men enough in waging it. The few sober people who have courage enough to hint at its being impolitic and uncalled for are almost hooted down, and their warnings and scruples are treated with indignation and contempt. It does now appear as if Austria had made up her mind to act with us, and that we may depend upon her. The French made known to the Austrian Government some time ago that, in the alternative of her taking a hostile part, she must expect to be attacked in Italy, and Clarendon early in the business pointed out to Colloredo all the serious consequences his Government had to apprehend in all parts of her dominions if she abetted Russia. With a war so popular, and supported cordially by Parliament, and a flourishing revenue and trade, Government would look round on a cloudless horizon, if it were not for the Reform Bill, which is a matter replete with uncertainty, difficulty, and danger. Nobody has an idea whether it will be carried in the House of Commons; almost all the friends of Government want Lord John to withdraw it, and the Cabinet is divided on the subject, Lord John, Graham, and Aberdeen being strongly in favour of pressing it on at all hazards, Palmerston violently against. He has now reproduced all his own objections and arguments against the Bill itself, as well as against forcing it on now, quite justified in the latter, but unjustifiable in the former course. Having once knocked under, and come back to office, consenting to swallow it, however reluctantly, it is too late to cavil at the Bill itself; but he may consistently and properly unite his voice with the voices of all prudent and moderate men, and strenuously resist its being persevered in at this moment against a feeling and opinion which are all but universal. On the whole, I rather expect (but with much doubt) that Lord John will yield to the general sentiment, and consent to postpone it.

_February 27th._--We are on the very verge of a Ministerial crisis. John Russell will listen to no reason about his Reform Bill, he insists on going on with it, and will have it that his honour and character demand that he should, and he says, 'When the honour of public men is preserved, the country is safe.' Clarendon dined here yesterday, and told me he thought Lord John would break up the Government. It is, in fact, a political duel between Lord John and Palmerston. ---- thinks, and probably he is right, that at the last moment Palmerston will give way, but in the meantime he himself and all his followers and admirers are moving Heaven and earth to defeat the measure, and to set up opposition to it--none more active than Hayter, Secretary to the Treasury, whose borough is one of those to be disfranchised. Everybody thinks Sir Edward Denny's motion will be carried, and if it is that Lord John will retire. If it were not for the difficulty about leading the House of Commons, this would not signify. I do not see how any arrangement is possible but that Palmerston should take the lead, but I do not know if this will not lead to other resignations. Clarendon is indignant at the state of things brought about by Lord John's obstinacy. He told me that Graham supported Lord John vehemently, but that Aberdeen took no strong part, and had behaved very well. Having accepted Lord John's Reform measure, and pledged himself to it, he was ready still to abide by that pledge. There never was such a _mess_ as it all is. Clarendon is now very hot on this war, which he fancies is to produce great and uncontemplated effects. He says for very many years past Russia has been the great incubus on European improvement, and the real cause of half the calamities that have afflicted the world, and he thinks a great opportunity now presents itself of extinguishing her pernicious influence, and by liberating other countries from it, the march of improvement and better government will of necessity be developed and accelerated, and in this way civilisation itself may be the gainer by this contest. The Emperor Napoleon has earnestly pressed that our contingent should be put under the command of the French Marshal, to which we have altogether objected, and he has acquiesced, though reluctantly. We have agreed on a sort of _mezzo termine_, viz. that, in the event of a battle in which both forces are engaged, they should be under one Commander-in-Chief, who must be the Frenchman. Clarendon lamented that he had got no better Minister at Vienna than Westmorland just now, who though well meaning is nearly useless, as Colloredo is here, who will take nothing on himself. He says Castelbajac at St. Petersburg has really not represented the French Government at all, nor acted in any way in conjunction with Seymour, but been all along a base courtier of the Emperor Nicholas. Clarendon has again and again remonstrated through Cowley with Drouyn de Lhuys on this inconsistency, and Drouyn has always replied that he is quite aware of it, and has been at least as much annoyed at it as we could be, but that the Emperor would never allow him to be recalled. I asked Clarendon whether, now that war really was inevitable, Aberdeen was more reconciled to it, and he said not at all; he yielded to the necessity, but very sulkily, and in the discussions relating to it in the Cabinet he took no part, and evinced a total indifference, or rather disgust. However, he expressed great admiration of Clarendon's speech, which he said was the best he ever heard. Lord John has sent to his brother to come to town, telling him a crisis is at hand. Granville, who is all with Lord John, personally and politically a Reformer, and highly approving of this Bill, is going to him to-day to see if he can prevail on him to give way to the general opinion, and at all events to put him in possession of what is said and thought on the subject.

THE REFORM BILL POSTPONED.

_March 6th._--After a great struggle John Russell was persuaded to put off his Reform Bill, but only till the end of April, so that in a few weeks the same embarrassment will begin again. The satisfaction at its being deferred at all is great and general, and everybody thinks that some expedient will be devised for putting it off again, when the time comes, and so that we shall be rid of it for this year. All the Cabinet was for putting it off, except Graham and Aberdeen. The former has devoted himself to Lord John, and goes heart and soul with him. Why Aberdeen took that view I cannot imagine, unless he wished to bring about a crisis, and to make his escape by favour of it. My own opinion at present is, that on April 27 Lord John will insist on bringing it on, and abide the consequences. The tenour of his speech and still more that of Aberdeen, the same night, lead me to that conclusion. The Radicals with old Hume at the head of them, approved of the course Lord John took, but expressly with the understanding that he really meant and would bring it on at the period to which it was postponed; and as he is sure to be incessantly urged on by his _entourage_ to be firm when the time comes, and he will be very reluctant to encounter the indignation and reproaches of his reforming friends and adherents, the chances seem to me to be in favour of the battle taking place. I think his speech on putting it off was not at all good, nor what he ought to have said. He laid himself open to an attack from Disraeli, which was very just, and he could not answer it. It was quite absurd to ground the postponement on the war and its exigencies, and it was moreover not the real and true reason. He put it off because he was importuned by everybody to do so, because Hayter proved to him that he would infallibly be defeated, and because there was no other way of preventing a break-up of the Government. He might have anticipated Disraeli's philippic by reverting to what he had before said, repeating his own conviction that the war afforded no reason for not going on with the Bill; but that he found so many of his own friends and such a general concurrence of feeling in the House of Commons on the other side, added to great indifference in the country, that he had thought it right to defer to those opinions, and give up his own to them. Such a defence of his conduct as this would have been more effective and more consistent with the truth, but it would have involved something like an acknowledgement of error, from which it is probable that his pride and obstinacy revolted, so he made what I think was a very bad speech. If he does bring it on again in April, I expect he will be defeated, and then retire. In any case his retirement will lead to Palmerston's elevation, as leader of the House of Commons if Lord John goes alone, as Prime Minister if Graham and Aberdeen go with him, and there seems no alternative, unless Lansdowne can be induced to replace Aberdeen, which some think not impossible, though it would only be for a short time.