ill. This is Clarendon's opinion also, and he thinks, if Lord John

persists, the Government will be inevitably broken up, for a considerable part of the Cabinet will certainly not consent to have Lord John again placed at the head of the Government. Clarendon does not believe a word of Palmerston's being a party to it, and he knows that both Gladstone and Newcastle would resign. Graham he is not sure of, but inclines to think he would retire with Aberdeen, especially if Aberdeen has any compulsion or ill-usage to complain of. For the moment, however, this storm has blown over, as Lord John has signified to Aberdeen that he does not mean to press the matter again for the present. The Queen, when it was mentioned to her, was anything but approving of or consenting to the change.

THEIR MISCHIEVOUS EFFECTS.

In all this matter there is little doubt that Lord John has been instigated by his connexions, and they none of them, Lord John himself included, have sense enough to see that the course he is adopting is quite suicidal, and would be not less fatal to his own reputation and popularity than to the Government he belongs to. He failed as Prime Minister, and no credit attended his Administration, and no regret his fall. The popularity he lost, he in good measure regained by his conduct on the formation of this Government, when he waived his own pretensions, and for the public good consented, after having held the first place, to accept the second; but the world does not know how reluctantly and grudgingly he did this, and how sorely his pride and vanity suffered on that occasion. The position he occupied of leader of the House of Commons without an office was anomalous, and many thought it objectionable, but he himself insisted on it, and it proved successful. The House of Commons not only accepted it, but were pleased to see a man so eminent eschewing office with its functions and emoluments, and gratuitously devoting himself to the service and the business of Parliament. He became popular again in the House, and would have been more so if he had not chosen to quit the Treasury Bench early every afternoon, and go down to Richmond, leaving Palmerston to do his work, and ingratiate himself with the House. Aberdeen reminded Lord John that this position, which he now found intolerable, was one he had chosen to make for himself; that he had not only declared he could not form a Government, but that every office had been at his disposal, and he had been invited to take the greatest offices, or, if he preferred it, any smaller one, but that he had insisted on holding none. Aberdeen is quite right not to resign now, or before Parliament meets, where he must appear as Minister to defend his own policy.

I expect that Lord John will not renew his demands for some time, if at all; but if he does, this is what will probably take place. The Government will be broken up, Lord John will try to form one and will fail, and the Government will again be constituted minus Lord John. Nobody would, I think, go out with him. This is supposing (which I think certain) that Palmerston would not make common cause with him, but prefer to remain with the rest. There would then remain the great difficulty of the lead of the House of Commons and the part Palmerston would play; but, dangerous as it would be, it would probably be found necessary to trust him with the lead, most distasteful though it would be both to Aberdeen and to the Queen.

_October 18th._--The Emperor of Russia moved heaven and earth to bring about a new Holy Alliance between himself, Austria, and Prussia, in which he would have succeeded if it had not been for the wisdom and firmness of Manteuffel,[1] who was proof against all his seductions. Austria consented, but only on condition that Prussia did likewise. The King of Prussia would have given way with his characteristic weakness, but Manteuffel would not hear of it, and contrived to keep his master straight. In an interview of two hours between the Emperor and Manteuffel _tête-à-tête_, the Emperor employed all the means he could think of to prevail on the Prussian Minister, but all in vain; he refused positively to allow Prussia to depart from her neutrality. This had the effect of keeping Austria neutral also, and that of making the Emperor more inclined to peace; but the Turkish declaration of war and peremptory summons to him to quit the Principalities leave him no alternative but that of taking up the gauntlet thus thrown down.

[Footnote 1: Count Manteuffel was the Prussian Minister for Foreign Affairs, and the leading member of the Prussian Cabinet. He was accused of sacrificing Prussian interests to those of Austria at the Conference of Olmütz; but in fact he succeeded in defeating what would have been a very formidable confederacy of the German Powers with Russia.]

OBJECTIONS OF LORD PALMERSTON.

_November 2nd._--All last week at Newmarket, during which nothing of moment occurred but the renewed attempts at negotiation, and the consent of the Turks to defer the commencement of hostilities. I saw Clarendon the day before yesterday, who told me how matters stood, and showed me a despatch just received from Vienna with a copy of a very moderate and pacific Note from Nesselrode to Buol, showing that there is every disposition at St. Petersburg to patch matters up. Clarendon told me that he was heartily sick of the whole question, in which the double trouble and difficulty were cast upon him of reconciling the Russians and the Turks and of preserving agreement in the Cabinet, where Aberdeen was always opposing measures of hostility towards Russia, and Palmerston for pushing them forward. He said he steered between the two, and that he and John Russell were more nearly agreed than any of the others; he told me at the same time a characteristic trait of Palmerston. The Turks having determined to plunge into war against the advice of their protectors, especially against our's, and it having been made known to us that the Sultan and his Ministers were not disinclined to be guided by us, but that they were themselves overruled and driven to this extreme course by the Grand Council, it became necessary in Clarendon's opinion to notify to the Turkish Government that, since they had thought fit to take their own independent course, we should reserve to ourselves the right of acting according to our own discretion, and not consider ourselves bound to be dragged into a war at the heels of the Grand Council, which is an assembly of ruffians and fanatics, by whom it would be utterly inconsistent with the dignity of our Crown that our policy should be governed and influenced. It seems too that this is a point on which the Queen feels very strongly, and is exceedingly anxious that the honour and dignity of the Crown should not be compromised. Accordingly Clarendon drew up a despatch to this effect, to which the Cabinet acceded, and Palmerston also, though with some reluctance. However, he not only saw the proposed despatch, but he made some alteration in it with his own hand, thereby of course subscribing to it. Just after this Clarendon went to Windsor, and submitted the despatch to the Queen and the Prince; they objected to it that it was not strong enough in their sense, but Clarendon prevailed upon them to waive their objections, and, as it had been agreed to in the Cabinet, to let it go. But before it was gone Clarendon received a letter from Palmerston, strongly objecting to the despatch altogether, and desiring Clarendon to inform Lord Aberdeen that he would be no party to such a communication. This was extremely embarrassing. Clarendon spoke to Aberdeen, and afterwards (at Aberdeen's suggestion) informed the Queen what had occurred. Her Majesty said, 'I advise you not to attach much importance to this communication. I know Lord Palmerston from much experience, and it is probably only an attempt to bully, which, if you take no notice of it, you will hear no more of.' The result justified the Queen's sagacity, for Clarendon sent off the despatch, and at the same time wrote word to Palmerston that he had done so, giving him sundry reasons why he could not do otherwise, to which he received in reply a very good-humoured letter, merely saying that, as it was gone, it was useless to say any more about it, and probably it would do no harm.

There has been talk abroad and discussion in the Cabinet about the meeting of Parliament. Lord John and Lord Aberdeen both wished Parliament to meet, the first because he is always hankering after the House of Commons, the latter because he wished Parliament to decide on the question of peace or war, so that in the one alternative his hands might be strengthened, or in the other he might have a pretext for resigning. But both Clarendon and Palmerston were much against it, and now that there is a fresh prospect of peace, it is rendered more unnecessary and undesirable.

King Leopold is here, still uneasy (though less than he was) upon the subject of his _démêlés_ with the Emperor of the French. The cause of them is the libellous publications of the French refugees in Belgium. They compose the most outrageous attacks of a personal nature on him and the Empress, which they have printed in Belgium, and get these papers smuggled into France, and disseminated amongst the lower classes, and particularly the troops. This naturally gives the Emperor great offence, and Leopold would afford him redress if he could; but the Constitution was made by journalists, and the unrestrained liberty of the press is so interwoven with the Constitution, that the Legislature itself has no power to deal with the case, nor any power short of a Constituent Assembly. All this Leopold has submitted to his powerful neighbour, and their relations seem to be more amicable; for very civil letters have passed between the two monarchs, through the Prince de Chimay, whom Leopold sent to compliment the Emperor when he went lately to Lille.

LORD STRATFORD'S INFLUENCE.

_November 10th._--All attempts at settling the Eastern Question by _Notes_ have been rudely interrupted by the actual commencement of hostilities. Meanwhile the Notes sped their way, but at Vienna it was deemed no longer possible to settle it in this manner, but that there must now be a regular treaty of peace, the terms of which the Allies might prescribe, and there is now a question of having a Congress or Conference here, to carry on the affair. It is, however, difficult to make out what the French are at, and, with all our intimacy, we must keep on our guard against all contingencies on the part of our Imperial neighbour. Nobody knows what is his real motive for sending Baraguay d'Hilliers to Constantinople. Francis Baring, when I told him of this appointment, said it could be only for the purpose of quarrelling, for he was the most violent of men, and was certain to quarrel with whomsoever he had to deal. If this be so, his quarrelling with Lord Stratford is inevitable, and it is by no means improbable that Louis Napoleon is tired of playing second fiddle to us, and sends this General there for the express purpose of counteracting our superior influence, and, by the tender of military counsel and aid, to substitute his own for ours.

Reeve is just returned from the East, having spent some time at Constantinople, and he came home by Vienna. Lord Stratford treated him with great kindness and hospitality, and talked to him very openly. He says that Stratford exercised a great but not unlimited influence and control over the Turkish Government, and of course is very jealous of the influence he possesses; for example, he boasted to Reeve that he had carried a great point, and had procured the appointment of the candidate he favoured as Greek Patriarch, an interference which, if it had been made by the Emperor of Russia, whose concern it is much more than our's, would have excited in us great indignation. Such an exercise of influence and in such a matter, of which the Russians are well aware, is calculated to exasperate them, and it is not unnatural that the Emperor should feel that, if any foreign influence is to prevail in Turkey, he has a better right than any other Power to establish his own. Reeve has a very poor opinion of the power, resources, and political condition of Turkey, and does not doubt the military success of the Russians. He says that the corruption is enormous--everybody bribes or is bribed. The Greek Patriarch whom Stratford got appointed had to pay large sums to Redschid Pasha and his son. The whole State is rotten to the core.

EFFECTS OF DEMOCRATIC REFORM.

_November 12th._--This morning John Russell breaks ground on the Reform plan, by referring his scheme to a Committee of the Cabinet, which is to meet at his house, consisting, besides himself, of Granville, Newcastle, Graham, Charles Wood, and Palmerston. I am afraid he will propose a lower franchise, probably 5_l._, in spite of many warnings and the signs of the times, which are very grave and alarming--nothing but strikes and deep-rooted discontent on the part of the working classes. I am in correspondence with Ellesmere on the subject, and have sent his letters to John Russell, who does not appear disposed to admit the force of his reasoning against lowering the franchise. This Committee will probably be on the whole favourable to a democratic measure, Lord John from old prejudices and obstinacy, Graham from timidity, Newcastle because he has espoused Liberal principles; Granville will be inclined to go with Lord John, and Palmerston alone is likely to stand out against a democratic scheme, unless Charles Wood should go with him, of whose opinions on the question of Reform I know nothing. Aberdeen is himself a Reformer, but I hear he is resolved not to consent to a 5_l._ franchise. I confess to great misgivings about this project in the present state of the country, and dread the further progress of democratic power. The success of the great Reform Bill and the experiences of twenty years without any of the apprehensions of the anti-Reformers having been realised, are now in my opinion sources of danger, as they create an opinion that progress, as it is called, is not only necessary, but perfectly safe. It consoles me for growing old that I shall not live to see the confusion in which this well-ordered State is likely to be involved, the period of peril and suffering it will have to go through, and the reaction, which will restore order and tranquillity at the expense of that temperate and rational freedom, which we alone of all the nations of the earth are in possession of. I see no reason why, if we choose recklessly, and without any cause, to cast away the good we enjoy, we should be exempted from paying the penalty which our folly and wickedness would so richly deserve. The above question in all its ramifications is infinitely more important than the Russian and Turkish quarrel, but there is no saying how the former may be indirectly and consequentially affected through the latter by means of the political differences which may arise out of it. Everything now looks black in the political horizon, and the war which has begun between the principals can hardly fail to extend itself sooner or later to the collateral parties.

_November 15th._--Yesterday morning having met Clarendon on the railway, he from Windsor, I from Hillingdon, I got into the carriage and went home with him. He told me all he had to tell, of what he had to go through with the conflicting proposals of Palmerston and Aberdeen in the Cabinet: the latter as averse as ever to any strong measures, and always full of consideration for the Emperor; the former anxious for war, and with the same confidence and rashness which were so conspicuous in him during the Syrian question, insisting that nothing will be so easy as to defeat Russia, and he now goes the length of urging that none of the old treaties between her and the Porte should be renewed. All this _jactance_, however, does not go much beyond words, for he evinces no disposition to separate from his colleagues or to insist on any course which the majority of the Cabinet object to.

The Emperor of Russia has taken the unusual step of writing an autograph letter to the Queen. Brunnow, who was rather puzzled, took the letter to Aberdeen, and asked what he was to do with it. Aberdeen told him to take it to Clarendon, who sent it to the Queen. She sent it to him to read, and he suggested certain heads of an answer, but did not communicate the letter, nor the fact of its having been received, to any one but Aberdeen. The Queen wrote an answer in French, and he says a very good one.

Cowley has sent him an account of a conversation he lately had with the Emperor Napoleon, in which he said that the condition of France and the rise in the price of provisions, so deeply affecting the working classes, made him more than ever bent upon preserving peace, and he proposed that the Powers should be invited to concur with England and France in drawing up a scheme of pacification and arrangement, which should be tendered to the belligerents, and whichever should refuse to accept it should be treated as an enemy. Clarendon said that there were many objections to this plan, but he seemed to believe in the sincerity of the Emperor's desire for peace, in spite of the opposite presumption afforded by Baraguay d'Hilliers' mission, and its accompaniment of French officers. He attributes that mission to the wounded vanity of France, and the determination of the Government to send some man who shall dispute the influence of Stratford, and assert that of France. The character of Stratford had been fully explained to Baraguay d'Hilliers, and he went, ostensibly at least, with instructions and an intention to act with him in harmony, but this the character of the two ambassadors will probably render quite impossible.

The Queen told Clarendon an anecdote of Palmerston, showing how exclusively absorbed he is with _foreign_ politics. Her Majesty has been much interested in and alarmed at the strikes and troubles in the North, and asked Palmerston for details about them, when she found he knew nothing at all. One morning, after previous enquiries, she said to him, 'Pray, Lord Palmerston, have you any news?' To which he replied, 'No, Madam, I have heard nothing; but it seems certain the _Turks have crossed the Danube_.'

LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S REFORM BILL.

In the afternoon I called on Graham at the Admiralty, and had a long talk with him about the Government and its prospects, and the disposition and intentions of John Russell and of Palmerston. He is, contrary to custom, very cheerful and sanguine on these points; he was apprised of all that Lord John has said and done, but except on one occasion, just about the time of the prorogation, has had no communication with Lord John himself on the subject. He is now satisfied that Lord John has abandoned his designs, and has made up his mind to go on as he is, and he infers this from his frank and friendly conduct about the Reform Bill, which he has not kept to himself, but submitted to a Committee for the purpose of bringing it before all his colleagues in a very good spirit, and quite willing to have Palmerston on this Committee, from whom the greatest opposition was to be expected. Graham said their first meeting had gone off very pleasantly, and Palmerston had urged much less objection than he had expected; he thinks therefore that his own reflexions and his knowledge of the difficulties which would oppose themselves to his purpose have determined Lord John to acquiesce in his present position, nor is he afraid of Palmerston separating himself from this Cabinet, thinking that at his age he will not speculate so deeply for the chance of greater power and a higher place, to be purchased at the certain sacrifice of all his social relations and personal connexions, and he therefore expects Palmerston will conform to the general sentiments and decisions of his colleagues, both as to foreign policy and to Reform. Graham said he approved entirely of Lord John's scheme, and thought his proposed measure good and safe.

_November 27th._--Council at Windsor on Friday 25th. The Queen was afflicted by the Queen of Portugal's death, though they never saw each other but once when they were children. I heard the particulars of the Reform Bill, which (if there is to be one at all) seems as little mischievous as can be. It seems to have encountered little or no opposition in the Cabinet, and Lord John considers it as having been accepted and settled there. Lord Lansdowne has not pronounced himself positively; but though, no doubt, he dislikes it exceedingly, they think he will not retire upon it, and up to the present time he has indicated no such intention. Graham, who is always frightened, told me on Friday he was very uneasy lest Lansdowne should decline to be a party to it.

Palmerston has written a letter to Lord John, strong in the beginning, denouncing the measure as unnecessary and unwise, and complaining of his having originally committed his colleagues to it, by declaring his own opinion without any previous consultation and concert with them. Then, after criticising the Bill (ably, as I am told), he ends by announcing that he shall consent to it. He sent copies of this letter to Aberdeen and to Lansdowne.

I brought Clarendon from the station to Downing Street, when he told me that he had begun some fresh attempts at renewing negotiations. The proposal of the Emperor Napoleon to force terms on the two parties would not do, but he had sent a proposal of some sort (I could not exactly make out what), which, contrary to his expectation, Buol had agreed to; but he did not seem very sanguine about any result from this beginning. He said nothing could exceed the difficulties of the case, nor the embarrassments of his own position. The Turks are now indisposed to agree to anything, or to make any concessions whatever, and of course the Emperor of Russia neither will nor can make peace and withdraw, without some plausible satisfaction. Then at home the difficulty is just as great between Palmerston, who is all for going ahead, and wants nothing less than war with Russia, and Aberdeen, who is in the other extreme--objecting to everything, and proposing nothing. John Russell is very reasonable, and agrees almost entirely with Clarendon; but whenever he thinks he is going to be outbid by Palmerston, is disposed to urge some violent measures also. He said he had a regular scene with Aberdeen the other day. After this Note (or whatever it was) had been discussed and agreed to in the Cabinet, and all settled, Aberdeen came into his room, and began finding fault with it, and raising all sorts of objections, when Clarendon, out of all patience, broke out: 'Really, this is too bad. You come now, after it has all been settled in the Cabinet where you let it pass, and make all sorts of objections. And this is the way you do about everything; you object to all that is proposed, and you never suggest anything yourself. What is it you want? Will you say what you would have done?' He declares he said all this with the greatest vivacity, being really exasperated. Aberdeen had nothing to say, and knocked under. The truth seems to be that the attacks upon him in the newspapers (though they don't know it) are pretty well justified, and very little exaggerated; nor is the idea of Palmerston's real inclination much mistaken. They have by accident very nearly hit upon the truth. Aberdeen, it seems, objects particularly to have any Conference _here_, and if there is to be anything of the kind, it seems likely to take place at Vienna, where, however, somebody would be sent to assist, if not to supersede, Westmorland.

PROTOCOL OF THE FOUR POWERS.

_December 10th._--The Protocol just signed at Vienna brings the four Powers together again, and Austria not only signed it with alacrity, but Buol told Westmorland, if the Emperor of Russia was found unmanageable, 'Nous irons avec vous jusqu'au bout.' The Turks are now desired to say on what terms they will make peace, and I expect they will reply that they will not make peace at all till the Principalities are evacuated. It seems very doubtful whether this fresh opening will lead to any result between two Powers so impracticable as the belligerents.

The Duke of Bedford has been endeavouring to persuade Lord John to reconsider the franchise in his Reform Bill, and Lord John tells him not to be afraid of its going too low, and that there is more chance of its appearing too niggardly. Aberdeen said it was not yet settled. Meanwhile, the Bill is drawn and privately printed. Lord John considers it to have been accepted by the Cabinet, and that he is sure of the acquiescence of the two principal dissentients--Lansdowne and Palmerston. The former went out of town, only saying that he hoped the landed interest would have its due share of influence. Palmerston's