CHAPTER IV.

The Conference at Olmütz--The Turks declare War--Lord Palmerston's Views--Lord Palmerston lauded by the Radicals and the Tories--Failure of the Pacific Policy--Lord Aberdeen desires to resign--Lord John to be Prime Minister--Obstacles to Lord John's Pretensions--Danger of breaking up the Government--Lord John's Wilfulness and Unpopularity--Alliance of the Northern Powers defeated by Manteuffel--Conflict of the two Policies--Meeting of Parliament discussed--French Refugees in Belgium--General Baraguay d'Hilliers sent to Constantinople--Mr. Reeve returns from the East--Lord John's Reform Bill--The Emperor of Russia writes to the Queen--Sir James Graham's Views on Reform, &c.--Opponents of the Reform Scheme--Abortive Attempts at Negotiation--The Four Powers agree to a Protocol--Lord Palmerston threatens to secede--Lord Palmerston resigns on the Reform Scheme--Lord Palmerston opposed to Reform--Effects of Lord Palmerston's Resignation--Conciliatory Overtures--Lord Lansdowne's Position--Lord Aberdeen's Account--Lady Palmerston makes up the Dispute--Lord Palmerston withdraws his Resignation--Baraguay d'Hilliers refuses to enter the Black Sea--War resolved on--Review of the Transaction.

_October 4th._--I went to The Grove on Saturday, and spent great part of the afternoon on Sunday reading the Eastern Question despatches, printed in a Blue Book to be laid by-and-by before Parliament. On Sunday came Westmorland's account of his interviews with the Emperor of Russia and Nesselrode at Olmütz, which sounded very satisfactory, for the Emperor was very gracious and pacific, and Nesselrode in his name disclaimed in the most positive terms any intention of aggrandising himself at the expense of Turkey or of claiming any protectorate, or asserting any claims inconsistent with the sovereignty and independence of the Sultan, and moreover signified his willingness to make a declaration to that effect in such form and manner as might be hereafter agreed upon. All this was very well, and served to confirm the notion that, if some sensible men, really desirous of settling the question, could be brought together, the accomplishment would not be difficult; but the distance which separates the negotiating parties from each other, and the necessity of circulating every proposition through so many remote capitals, and the consequent loss of time, have rendered all conferences and pacific projects unavailing.

TURKISH DECLARATION OF WAR.

Yesterday morning a messenger arrived, bringing the telegraphic despatch from Vienna, which announced the determination of the Turks to go to war, and that a grand Council was to be assembled to decide on the declaration, news which precluded all hope of adjustment;[1] and yesterday afternoon the further account of the decision of the Council was received. Such of the Ministers as are in town met in the afternoon, and it was decided that all the rest should be summoned, and a Cabinet held on Friday next.

It will be no easy matter to determine what part we shall take, and how far we shall mix ourselves up in the quarrel as belligerents. It will be very fortunate if the Cabinet should be unanimous on this question. Palmerston has hitherto acted very frankly and cordially with Clarendon, but the old instincts are still strong in him, and they are all likely to urge him to recommend strong measures and an active interference. Granville told me last night he thought Palmerston was not at all displeased at the decision of the Turks, and as he still clings to the idea that Turkey is powerful and full of energy, and he is quite indifferent to the danger to which Austria may be exposed, and would rejoice at her being plunged in fresh difficulties and threatened with fresh rebellions and revolutions, he will rather rejoice than not at the breaking out of hostilities. He will not dare to avow his real propensities, but he will cloak them under other pretences and pretexts, and give effect to them as much as he can. He has been speechifying in Scotland, where, though he spoke very handsomely of Clarendon, he did not say one word in defence of Aberdeen, or anything calculated to put an end to the notion and repeated assertions that he and Aberdeen had been at variance on the Eastern Question. I find Aberdeen feels this omission very much, and it would certainly have been more generous, as well as more just, if he had taken the opportunity of correcting the popular error as to Aberdeen, after having been reaping a great harvest of popularity at his expense.

Palmerston's position is curious. He is certainly very popular, and there is a high idea of his diplomatic skill and vigour. He is lauded to the skies by all the Radicals who are the admirers of Kossuth and Mazzini, who want to renew the scenes and attempts of 1848, and who fancy that, if Palmerston were at the head of the Government, he would play into their hands. On the other hand, he is equally an object of the flattery and praise of the Tories, who cannot get over their being succeeded by a Peelite Prime Minister, and they cling to the belief that there can be no real cordiality, and must be complete difference of opinion, between Aberdeen and Palmerston, and they look forward to the prospect of their disunion to break up this odious Government, and a return to office with Palmerston at their head. These are the political chimeras with which their brains are filled, and which make them take (for very different reasons) the same part as the Radicals on the Eastern Question. My own conviction is that both parties reckon without their host. Palmerston is sixty-nine years old, and it is too late for him to look out for fresh political combinations and other connexions, nor would any object of ambition repay him for the dissolution of all his personal and social ties. He will, therefore, go on as he does now, accepting such popularity as is offered him as a means of enhancing his own importance in this Cabinet; and, in the event of any accident happening to it, of making his own pretensions available.

[Footnote 1: The declaration of the Turkish Council or Divan, held on October 3, was to the effect that, if the Principalities were not evacuated in fifteen days, a state of war would ensue. To this the Emperor of Russia responded on October 18 by a formal declaration of war. War being declared, the Straits were opened, and, at the request of the Sultan, the allied fleets entered the Dardanelles on October 22.]

_October 6th._--Delane was sent for by Lord Aberdeen the night before last, when they had a long conversation on the state of affairs, and Aberdeen told him that he was resolved to be no party to a war with Russia on such grounds as the present, and he was prepared to resign rather than incur such responsibility. This was the marrow of what he said, and very important, because not unlikely to lead to some difference in the Cabinet, and possibly to its dissolution.

FAILURE OF THE PACIFIC POLICY.

_October 7th._--Clanricarde called here yesterday morning; he is very strong against the Government and their policy, and maintains that if we had joined France and sent the fleet up when she did, the Emperor of Russia would then have receded, as his obstinacy was entirely caused by his conviction that France and England would never remain united, and that nothing would induce the latter to make war on Russia. He said this idea had been confirmed by the language of Aberdeen, who had continually spoken of his determination to avoid war to Brunnow and others, and in his letters to Madame de Lieven--_la paix à tout prix_. Clanricarde, however, himself said he would not declare war against Russia, and we might defend Turkey without going that length. I went and told Clarendon all he had said (in greater detail), and he owned that it was more than probable that Aberdeen had held some such language as was attributed to him; indeed, he had more than once had occasion to remonstrate with him upon it. Clarendon was very uneasy at the prospect of the discussion about to take place, and contemplates as extremely probable the breaking-up of the Government on the question of war. Palmerston has been very reserved, but always on the same friendly terms with his colleagues, and Clarendon in particular; but Lady Palmerston as usual talks _à qui veut l'entendre_ of the misconduct of the whole affair, and affirms that, if Palmerston had had the management of it, all would have been settled long ago. As matters have turned out, it is impossible not to regret that we were perhaps too moderate and patient at first; for as the course we have adopted has not been successful, it seems unfortunate we did not try another, which might have been more so. But this is judging _après coup_, and nothing is so easy as to affirm that, if something had been done, which was not done, success would have attended it.

_October 8th._--The Cabinet went off very well yesterday, no serious difference of opinion about anything, and a good concurrence both as to what had been done and what ought to be done hereafter. Lord Aberdeen is well pleased.

_Newmarket, October 12th._--This morning I met the Duke of Bedford on the heath, who told me he wanted very much to speak to me about certain communications he had received which made him extremely uneasy, and full of apprehension of coming difficulties, threatening the very existence of the Government. It seems that a short time ago Lord Aberdeen imparted to John Russell his wish to resign, and to place the Government in his hands. He said that he had only taken his present post because his doing so was indispensable to the formation of the Government, and had always contemplated Lord John's eventually succeeding him, and he thought the time was now come when he might very properly do so. He did not anticipate any insurmountable opposition in any quarter, and he should himself speak to Gladstone about it, who was the most important person to be consulted, and he was in fact only prevented doing so, as he had intended, by not being able to go to Scotland, where he had expected to meet Gladstone. Whether Aberdeen had spoken to Gladstone since his return to London, the Duke of Bedford did not know. No steps appear to have been taken with regard to Palmerston, nor does it appear that any progress was made in accomplishing this change. The Queen had been apprised of Aberdeen's intentions. Such was the state of things when a short time ago the Duke received a letter from Lord John, in which he said that matters could not go on as they were, and that there must be some changes; and that very soon he could no longer act without being primarily responsible for the policy of the Government--in other words, without resuming his post of Prime Minister. This is all the Duke knows, as Lord John entered into no explanations or details, and he is in total ignorance of the grounds of his brusque determination, and of what can have occurred to produce it. He sees, however, all the difficulties and embarrassments that in consequence of it are looming in the distance, and how very possible it is that the Government may be broken up. All this we very fully discussed, but without either of us being able to guess what it all means, or what the result will be of Lord John's putting his intentions into execution.

LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S PRETENSIONS.

_October 16th._--I came to town yesterday morning, and in the afternoon went to the Foreign Office, and saw Clarendon, to whom I imparted what the Duke of Bedford had told me. He said he knew it all, Aberdeen having told him what had passed between John Russell and himself; but having made Clarendon give his word of honour that he would not say a word of it to anybody, so he said, 'I would not mention it even to you, to whom I tell everything.' He then, however, went into the whole question, and told me what had passed, which did not exactly agree with the Duke's story. According to Clarendon, Lord John went to Lord Aberdeen before Parliament was up, and told him he could not consent to go on in his present position, to which Aberdeen replied, 'Very well, you only meet my own wishes, and you know I always told you that I should be at any time ready to resign my place to you.'

Nothing more seems to have taken place at that time, nor till lately, when Lord John went again to Aberdeen, and repeated his determination not to go on; but this time the communication does not seem to have been received by Aberdeen with the same ready acquiescence in the proposed change, and some plain speaking took place between them. I infer, but as Clarendon did not expressly say so I put it dubiously, that Aberdeen had spoken to Gladstone and ascertained that he would by no means agree to the substitution of John Russell, and should go with Aberdeen if he retired. At all events, while Aberdeen told him that he was prepared, if he wished it, to broach the matter to his colleagues, he intimated to him that it was evident he wanted to turn him out, and put himself in his place, but that he (Aberdeen) could not agree to retire at this moment, and before Parliament met, and that Lord John had better well consider the step he was about to take, as it would in all probability break up the Government, and asked him if he was prepared to encounter the odium of doing so, more especially as he must remember that he had only consented to form this Government on Lord John's own assurance to him that he was himself unable to form one. He asked him if he was secure of Palmerston's concurrence in the change he proposed, and he replied that he did not expect to find any difficulty in that quarter. This was the substance of what passed between them, Aberdeen being evidently a good deal nettled, and thinking Lord John is behaving very