CHAPTER III.

Weakness of the Government--Gladstone's Budget--A Conversation with Disraeli--Suicidal Conduct of the Tories--Their Irritation--A Charge against Mr. Gladstone defeated--The Stafford Committee--Harmony of the Government--Electoral Corruption--Impending War--Success of the Government--Macaulay's Speech on the Judges' Exclusion Bill--Erroneous Predictions from Paris--Unsettled Policy as to the War--Lord John's Anti-Catholic Speech--The English and French Fleets sail for the Dardanelles--Conduct of Austria--Russia means War--Attacks by the Opposition--Explanations desired--Attempted Mediation--Lord Aberdeen's Confidence shaken--Divisions of Opinion--Terms of Accommodation--Lord Palmerston's Views--Prospect of Peace--Division in the Lords on the Succession Duties Bill--Friendly Relations of Lord Palmerston and Lord Clarendon--Fears of War--Hopes of Peace--Lord Palmerston and Mr. Cobden--Rejection of the Vienna Note--Lord Palmerston courted by the Tories--Lord John Russell's Position--The Duke of Bedford's Part in the last Crisis--Dangers at Constantinople--Lord Stratford's Influence--Suspected Intrigue of France with Russia--Lord Palmerston goes to Balmoral--Sir James Graham's View--Lord Stratford's Conduct--Importance of the Vienna Note--A Cabinet summoned.

_London, April 21st_, 1853.--I have had such a bad fit of gout in my hand, that I have been unable for some time past to write at all, though there has been plenty to write about. The Government has been sustaining defeats in the House of Commons on detached questions of taxation, much to their annoyance and embarrassment, and which were more serious from the inference to be drawn from them than for their intrinsic importance. They were caused by the meddling and absurd crotchets of some of their friends, and the malignity and unprincipled conduct of their enemies: the first bringing forward motions for reduction of certain items, merely to gratify clients or constituents, and the Tories joining with the Radicals in voting for things which they opposed when they were themselves in office, reckless of consistency or of consequences. But the whole affair was unpleasant, as it displayed strikingly how little authority the Government has over the House of Commons, and the difficulty, if not impossibility, of carrying on the service of the country.

MR. GLADSTONE'S BUDGET.

These little battles were, however, of little moment compared with the great event of Gladstone's Budget, which came off on Monday night. He had kept his secret so well, that nobody had the least idea what it was to be, only it oozed out that the Income Tax was not to be differentiated. He spoke for five hours, and by universal consent it was one of the grandest displays and most able financial statement that ever was heard in the House of Commons; a great scheme, boldly, skilfully, and honestly devised, disdaining popular clamour and pressure from without, and the execution of it absolute perfection. Even those who do not admire the Budget, or who are injured by it, admit the merit of the performance. It has raised Gladstone to a great political elevation, and, what is of far greater consequence than the measure itself, has given the country assurance of a _man_ equal to great political necessities, and fit to lead parties and direct governments.

_April 22nd._--I met Gladstone last night, and had the pleasure of congratulating him and his wife, which I did with great sincerity, for his success is a public benefit. They have been overwhelmed with compliments and congratulations. Prince Albert and the Queen both wrote to him, and John Russell, who is spitefully reported to have been jealous, has, on the contrary, shown the warmest interest and satisfaction in his success. The only one of his colleagues who may have been mortified is Charles Wood, who must have compared Gladstone's triumph with his own failures. From all one can see at present, it promises certain success, though many parts of the Budget are cavilled at. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to find any common ground on which Radicals or Irish can join the Derbyites to overthrow it, and the sanguine expectations which the latter have been entertaining for some time, of putting the Government into some inextricable fix, have given way to perplexity and despondency; and they evidently do not know what to do, nor how to give effect to their rancour and spite. Lord Derby had a great meeting not many days ago, at which he recommended union, and cheered them on in opposition, of course for form's sake, talking of _moderation_ and _principles_, neither of which he cares a fig for. Mischief and confusion, vengeance against the coalition, and taking the chance of what may happen next, are all that he and Disraeli are bent upon. I met the latter worthy in the street just before the Budget, a day or two previous. He asked me what I thought of the state of affairs, and I told him I thought it very unpleasant, and it seemed next to impossible to carry on the Government at all, everybody running riot in the House of Commons, and following his own fancies and crotchets; nor did I see how it could be otherwise in the present state of parties and the country; that since Peel's administration, which was a strong Government, there had been and apparently there could be none. The present Government was not strong, and they were perpetually defeated, on minor points indeed, but in a way that showed they had no power to work through Parliament. I said of course they would dissolve if this continued, but that Gladstone's Budget might make a difference one way or the other. Disraeli scouted the idea of a dissolution, by which, he said, they would certainly gain nothing. Why, he asked, did not the Peelites join us again, as they might have done, and got as good terms as they have now, and then there would have been a strong Government again? As I don't want to quarrel with anybody, I restrained what it was on my lips to say--'You could not possibly expect them to join you'--but I did tell him that, even if the present Government could not maintain itself, of all impossible things the most impossible was the restoration of his Government _tale quale_, to which he made no reply. To be sure, the Protectionist seceders from Peel have now drunk the cup of mortification, disgrace, and disaster to the very dregs. They are a factious and (as I hope) impotent Opposition, under the unprincipled guidance of men, who, clever and plausible though they be, are totally destitute of wisdom, sincerity, and truth. They have not only lost all the Protection for the maintenance of which they made such struggles and sacrifices, but they have likewise brought upon themselves the still heavier blow to the landed interest which is going to be inflicted in the shape of the legacy duty. Had they possessed more foresight, and been less violent and unreasonable, this would not have happened to them; for if Peel's original Government had held together, and they had been content to accept his guidance, no Budget would have contained this measure. Schemes might have been devised to lighten their burdens, or to increase the compensations they really have obtained in other ways; but, be this as it may, they would certainly have been saved from this direct impost, which I doubt if Peel himself ever contemplated, but which he would certainly have spared them if they had not deserted him, nor would his successors have departed from his policy in this respect. But from first to last their conduct has been suicidal in every respect.

SUICIDAL CONDUCT OF THE TORIES.

_May 3rd._--The Government is going on very flourishingly. A capital division in the House of Lords on the Canada Clergy Reserves Bill,[1] on which occasion there was a scene between Derby and Clarendon, in which both were, to my mind, in the wrong. The whole affair appears in all the newspapers, but what does not appear is the rather absurd termination of it, when, after much excitement and strong language interchanged, the belligerents ended by drinking each other's healths in water across the table. The victory in the Lords has been followed up by one still more important in the House of Commons on the Income Tax, which was carried by 71, a great many of the Opposition voting with Government, much to the disgust of their friends. These divisions have filled the Derbyites with rage and despair, and nothing can exceed their depression and their abuse of the Budget and its authors. What vexes and provokes them so much is the ascendency and triumph of the Peelites. They could endure it in the Whigs, but their hatred of the name and party of Peel is inextinguishable.

[Footnote 1: This was a Bill abolishing the title of the Protestant Clergy to certain portions of waste lands in the Colony.]

_May 15th._--At Newmarket last week, during which the Budget was making its way very successfully through the House of Commons, where Gladstone has it all his own way. The Speaker told me he was doing his business there admirably well. While I was at Newmarket came out the strange story of Gladstone and the attempt to extort money from him before the police magistrate.[1] It created for the moment great surprise, curiosity, and interest, but has almost entirely passed away already, not having been taken up politically, and there being a general disposition to believe his story and to give him credit for having had no improper motive or purpose. Nevertheless it is a very strange affair, and has not yet been satisfactorily explained. It is creditable in these days of political rancour and bitterness that no malignant attempt has been made to vilify him by his opponents or by the hostile part of the press. On the contrary, the editor of the 'Morning Herald' wrote him a very handsome letter in his own name and in that of the proprietor, assuring him of their confidence in his purity and innocence, and that nothing would induce them to put anything offensive to him in the paper, and they had purposely inserted the police report in an obscure part of the paper. It is very fortunate for Gladstone that he was not intimidated and tempted to give the man money, but had the courage to face the world's suspicions and meet the charge in so public a manner.

[Footnote 1: An attempt had been made to extort money from Mr. Gladstone on a spurious charge, which he met by instantly giving the delinquent into custody and meeting the case at a police office.]

THE STAFFORD COMMITTEE.

The Stafford Committee has at length closed its proceedings, after exposures of the most disgraceful kind, which are enormously damaging not only to Augustus Stafford himself but to Lord Derby and his Government. The Duke of Northumberland comes clear out of it as to corruption, but cuts a wretched and ridiculous figure, having failed to perform the duties or to exercise the authority of a First Lord while he was at the Admiralty. Disraeli's evidence was nothing but an attempt to shirk the question and involve it in a confusion of characteristic verbiage which only excited ridicule. This affair has done great harm to them as a party, and served to make them more odious and contemptible than they were before.[1] They are now irretrievably defeated, and though they may give much trouble and throw difficulties and obstructions in the way of the Government, it is all they can do. Every day adds to the strength and consistency of the Government, both from their gaining favour and acquiring influence in the country, and from the ruin in which the Tory party is involved, and the total impossibility of their rallying again so as to form another Government. This latter consideration has already produced the adhesion of some moderate and sensible men who take a dispassionate view of affairs and who wish for a strong and efficient Government, and it will produce still greater effects of the same kind.

[Footnote 1: Charges of misconduct in the department of the Admiralty were brought against Mr. Augustus Stafford, who had held office under the late Government. They were investigated by a Select Committee of the House of Commons.]

_May 22nd._--I met in a train a day or two ago Graham and the Speaker, not having seen Graham for a long time. Since my friends have been in office I have hardly ever set eyes on them or had any communication with them. Graham seemed in excellent spirits about their political state and prospects, all owing to Gladstone and the complete success of his Budget. The long and numerous Cabinets, which were attributed by the 'Times' to disunion, were occupied in minute consideration of the Budget, which was there fully discussed, and Gladstone spoke in the Cabinet one day for three hours, rehearsing his speech in the House of Commons, though not quite at such length. Graham again said Clarendon was doing admirably. Palmerston he thinks much changed and more feeble, his energy much less, and his best days gone by. He thinks Lord John's position without office an unfortunate one, and regrets he did not stay at the Foreign Office or take another; he thinks his influence impaired by having none. He talked of a future Head, as Aberdeen is always ready to retire at any moment, but it is very difficult to find anyone to succeed him. I suggested Gladstone. He shook his head and said it would not do; and he was for John Russell, but owned there were difficulties there too. He considered Derby and the Tories irretrievably ruined, their characters so damaged by Stafford's Committee and other things; he spoke of the grand mistakes Derby had made. Gladstone's object certainly was for a long time to be at the head of the Conservative party in the House of Commons, and to join with Derby, who might in fact have had all the Peelites if he would have chosen to ally himself with them instead of with Disraeli; thus the latter had been the cause of the ruin of the party. Graham thought that Derby had committed himself to Disraeli in George Bentinck's lifetime in some way that prevented his shaking him off, as it would have been his interest to do. The Peelites would have united with Derby, but would have nothing to do with Disraeli. Bad as the cases were that had come forth at the election committees, that of Liverpool was worse than any of them, and would create a great scandal. Forbes Mackenzie could not face it, and would probably retire; but it is doubtful if this would prevent an enquiry and exposure, and when boundless corruption appeared at such a place as Liverpool, with its numerous constituency, it was a blow to the representative system itself, and showed the futility of attempts to destroy bribery and improper influence.

APPROACHING RUPTURE OF RUSSIA AND TURKEY.

_May 30th._--Great alarm the last two or three days at an approaching rupture between Russia and Turkey, as, if it takes place, nobody can pretend to say what the consequences may be. Vast indignation of course against the Emperor of Russia, who certainly appears to have departed from the moderate professions which he made to Seymour a short time ago, and the assurances that were given to us and France. But Clarendon, whom I saw yesterday, is rather disposed to give him credit for more moderate and pacific intentions than his conduct seems to warrant. He says that he is persuaded the Emperor has no idea of the view that is taken of his proceedings here, and that he thinks he is requiring no more than he is entitled to; and it is only the other day that Nesselrode congratulated Seymour on the prospect of everything being satisfactorily settled, having no doubt of the Turks accepting the last proposals made to them, a copy of which Nesselrode showed him. Still, though matters look very black, Clarendon is not without hopes of war being averted and some means found of patching up the affair, the Emperor having promised that he will in no case resort to _ulterior measures_ without giving us notice of his intention. The difficulty for him now is to recede with honour, as it would be to advance without danger. He has once before receded after to a certain degree committing himself, and he may not choose to do so a second time. Then he is naturally provoked with the French, who are in fact the real cause of this by their intrigues and extortions about the holy places; and we suspect that he is, besides this, provoked at the Montenegrin affair having been settled by Austria without his having a finger in that pie. All these considerations combined make great confusion and difficulty. Brunnow is in mortal agony, dreading above all things the possibility of his having to leave this country.

The Government continues to go on very well; the Opposition got up a debate on the legacy duties in the House of Lords the other night, which only served to prove how entirely Derby's influence has declined even there. They had thought themselves sure of beating the Government, but not only were they defeated, but accident alone (people shut out and absent) prevented their being defeated by a considerable majority. The Cabinet is going on in the greatest harmony, and the men who were strangers up to the time of its formation have taken to each other prodigiously. Aberdeen unfortunately wants the qualities which made Lord Lansdowne so good a leader, and is rather deficient in tact and temper in the House of Lords as he used to be formerly, when he attacked Lord Grey's Government and Palmerston's administration of foreign affairs always with too much asperity; but in spite of these defects he has not done ill even there, and in the Cabinet he is both liked and respected, being honest, straightforward, and firm, very fair, candid, and unassuming. Granville tells me that of the whole Cabinet he thinks Aberdeen has the most pluck, Gladstone a great deal, and Graham the one who has the least. He speaks very well of Molesworth, sensible, courageous, and conciliatory, but quite independent and plain spoken in his opinions.

_June 1st._--John Russell made an imprudent speech the night before last on the Irish Church, giving great offence to the Irish and the Catholics. He could not help, as leader of the Government, opposing a proposition having for its object the destruction of the Irish Church, but he might have done it with more tact and discretion, and not in a way to elicit the cheers of the Tories. The Tail will pay him off for this whenever they can. _Quantum mutatus ab illo_, who broke up a Government for the sake of an appropriation clause.

Last night Macaulay reappeared in the House of Commons, and in a speech of extraordinary power and eloquence threw out the Judges' Exclusion Bill.[1] It was the first time he had spoken, and though his physical strength is impaired he showed that his mental powers are undiminished.

UNPOPULARITY OF THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT.

Senior called on me a day or two ago, just returned from Paris, where he has been living and conversing with all the notabilities (principally of the Liberal party), and he tells me there is but one opinion amongst them, that this Empire cannot last, and they only differ as to the time it may last. Most of them think it will be short. Thiers gives it only a year, Duchâtel alone thinks it will go on for some years. The unpopularity of Louis Napoleon increases and his discredit likewise, and as soon as the unpopularity shall extend to the army, it will be all over with him. The Opposition which has sprung up, which has increased rapidly and will increase still more in the Corps Législatif, is deemed to be very important and significant, and they think it will be impossible for him to go on with such a body so constituted and disposed, and he will have to decide upon suffering the embarrassment it will cause him, or having recourse to a _coup d'état_, a measure which would be hazardous. There are no fresh adhesions to the Court beyond the half dozen men of rank or name who have already joined it, and who are hated and despised for having done so. While such is the opinion of the people of mark at Paris, they are nevertheless sensible of the danger which would accompany a counter revolution, and of the uncertainty of what might follow, what influences might prevail, and what form of government be adopted; but they seem generally to think that while in the first instance there would be a succession of provisional arrangements and fleeting transitory governments, it would end in the restoration of the monarchy under Henri V., but that this would not take place by the acceptance and triumph of any divine hereditary right, but must be adopted by the nation and ratified by a national vote.

[Footnote 1: A Bill was before Parliament which would have excluded the Master of the Rolls from the House of Commons, he being the only Judge who could sit there. The Judge of the Admiralty Court had already been excluded. Macaulay opposed the Bill with such force and eloquence that he changed the opinion of the House, and defeated the measure. An unusual occurrence.]

_June 5th._--I saw Clarendon on Friday morning for a few minutes; he takes a very gloomy view of the Russo-Turkish question, and is greatly disgusted at having been deceived by the Emperor; he says he is harassed to death with the whole affair, and with the multiplicity of business he has besides; he has a difficult task to perform, taking a middle position in the Cabinet between the opposite opinions of those who are for more stringent measures and those who, like himself, are for patience and moderation. Palmerston, in whom his ancient Russian antipathies are revived, is for vigour, and as in former times 'leading John Russell by the nose,' Clarendon and Aberdeen for moderation; but he is beset by different opinions and written suggestions and proposals, and all this worries him exceedingly. I asked him how the Court was, and he said very reasonable, their opinions being influenced of course by Aberdeen.

He talked with great disgust of John Russell's speech on the Irish Church, how unfair it was as well as unwise, and how reckless of the damage it caused to the Government, and the embarrassing and awkward situation in which he thereby placed many of their supporters. These are the general sentiments with regard to that speech, which was neither more nor less than speaking the Durham letter over again, and, considering what that famous letter cost him, he might have been expected to steer clear of such a scrape. But he is more than ever the creature of impulse and of temper, and he seems to have lost a great deal of his tact and discretion, and certainly he is no longer fit to be either head of a Government or leader of the House of Commons, and perhaps the latter position in such a Government as this suits him still less than the former would. When I came to town yesterday morning I found that several of the Irish Roman Catholic members of the Government, occupying subordinate offices (Messrs. Keogh, Monsell, and Sadleir), had resigned in consequence of Lord John Russell's speech, but an hour afterwards I learnt that they had been induced to remain by an assurance from Lord Aberdeen that Lord John did not express the sentiments of the Government on this subject.

Charles Wood brought on the India Bill on Friday night in a speech of unexampled prolixity and dulness. There is not yet time to ascertain how the plan is likely to be received, but I suspect it will meet with a great deal of opposition, although, as it is more favourable to the existing interests than was expected, it will very likely pass, as, if Leadenhall Street was to go further, it would certainly fare worse.

_St. Leonards, June 7th._--I am here for Ascot, a lovely place and divine weather. The affair with the Irish has ended as harmlessly as anything so awkward could do. Mr. G. H. Moore asked some rather impertinent questions in the House of Commons on Monday, which Lord John answered in an easy, nonchalant, jesting manner. The House laughed, nobody said anything, and there it ended, but the Brigade will probably seek opportunities of showing their teeth and of revenging themselves on Lord John. It has been rather mortifying for him, but he has taken it very quietly, and Aberdeen's letter to Monsell was shown to him and received his assent. The French are behaving very well about the Eastern question, and I begin to think that it will in the end blow over, as diplomacy will probably hit upon some expedient for enabling the Emperor of Russia to do what his real interests evidently point out.

THE ALLIED FLEETS AT THE DARDANELLES.

_June 13th._--I came back from Ascot on Friday, having met Clarendon on Thursday on the course, who gave me an account of the state of affairs. On Saturday I met Walewski at dinner, and had much talk with him, and yesterday I saw Clarendon again. The great event has been the sailing of our fleet from Malta to join the French fleet at the mouth of the Dardanelles, to the unspeakable satisfaction of the French Government, who desire nothing so much as to exhibit to all Europe an _entente cordiale_ with us; and Walewski said to me that, however the affair might end, this great advantage they had at all events obtained.[1] The Emperor of Russia will be deeply mortified when he hears of this junction; for besides that it will effectually bar the approach of his fleet to Constantinople, if he ever contemplated it, there is nothing he dislikes and dreads so much as the intimate union of France and England. His Majesty is now so greatly excited that nothing can stop him, and he told Seymour the other day that he would spend his last rouble and his last soldier rather than give way. Still he professes that he aims at no more than a temporary occupation of the Principalities, and renounces all purpose of conquest. The Russian army will therefore certainly march in, and it will be the business of the other Governments to restrain the Turks and prevent a collision, which Walewski thinks they can certainly do.

Austria holds the same language that we do, but will not act. Clarendon sent for Count Colloredo on Saturday (who never hears from Buol), and set before him in detail all the dangers with which Austria is menaced by the possibility of war breaking out in the East, and above all by that of France being brought into the field in hostility with Austria. In such a case the French would be quite unscrupulous, and excite all the revolutionary spirit, which, though now repressed, is thickly scattered over every part of the Austrian Empire, from Milan to Hungary. Colloredo acknowledged the truth of the representation, and promised to report textually to Buol what Clarendon said.

All now depends on the Emperor Nicholas himself. If he adheres to his determination not to advance beyond the Principalities, time will be afforded for negotiations, and some expedient may be found for enabling him to recede without discredit, and without danger to his own _prestige_ at home. The French and English feel alike on this point, and are conscious that the Emperor has gone too far to recede. He is pushed on by an ardent and fanatical party in Russia, and is not entirely his own master. Both Governments are therefore willing to make allowance for the exigencies of his position, and to assist him to the uttermost of their power in getting honourably out of the scrape into which he has plunged himself and all Europe.

[Footnote 1: Orders were sent to Admiral Dundas on June 2 to sail for the Dardanelles, and the fleet proceeded to Besika Bay, together with the French fleet.]

DIVIDED OPINIONS IN THE CABINET.

_June 22nd._--The Opposition papers (especially the 'Morning Herald' and the 'Press,' Disraeli's new journal) have been making the most violent attacks on Aberdeen and Clarendon, calling for their impeachment on the ground of their conduct in this Eastern quarrel, particularly charging them with having been cognisant of and approved of Menschikoff's demands, which have occasioned all the hubbub. At last it was thought necessary to make a statement in reply, which was done by the 'Times' on Thursday last. The article was a good one, but contained an inaccuracy, about which Brunnow wrote a long but friendly letter of complaint to Clarendon. The day after this, another article was inserted to set the matter right, with which Brunnow was quite satisfied; but the explanations of the 'Times' failed to stem the torrent of abuse, and the Tory papers only repeated their misrepresentations with greater impudence and malignity than before. It was thought necessary a stop should be put to this, and it was proposed to Clarendon to let discussions come on in both Houses, moved by Layard in the Commons, and Clanricarde in the Lords, which would afford an opportunity for the only effectual contradiction, Ministerial statements in Parliament. Last night I met him at the Palace, when we talked the matter over. He is still of opinion that it is essential to delay the explanations and put off all discussion till the matter is decided one way or another. He thinks so in reference to the case itself, leaving out of consideration the convenience of the Government; he thinks that any discussion in the House of Commons will elicit a disposition for peace _à tout prix_, which would seriously embarrass affairs, and only confirm Russia in the course she is pursuing. I do not think so, but his opinions are founded on what he hears Cobden has said, and on the _animus_ of the peace party. He told me again what a task his is in the Cabinet, standing between and mediating between Aberdeen and Palmerston, whose ancient and habitual ideas of foreign policy are brought by this business into antagonism, and he says the difficulty is made greater by Aberdeen's unfortunate manner, who cannot avoid some of that sneering tone in discussion which so seriously affects his popularity in the House of Lords. He is therefore obliged to take a great deal upon himself, in order to prevent any collision between Palmerston and Aberdeen. It appears that Palmerston proposed on Saturday last that the entrance of the Russians into the Principalities should be considered a _casus belli_, in which, however, he was overruled and gave way. The Cabinet did not come to a vote upon it, but the general sentiment went with Aberdeen and Clarendon, and against Palmerston. He seems to have given way with a good grace, and hitherto nothing has occurred of a disagreeable character; on the contrary, both Clarendon and Granville tell me Palmerston has behaved very well. Clarendon thinks (and in this I concur) that the country would never forgive the Government for going to war, unless they could show that it was absolutely necessary and that they had exhausted every means of bringing about a pacific solution of the question, and nobody here would care one straw about the Russian occupation of Moldavia and Wallachia.

That all means have not been exhausted is clear from this fact. The Austrians, who are more interested than anybody, have moved heaven and earth to effect a settlement, and the Emperor of Russia has himself asked for their '_bons offices_' for that end. They have entreated the Turks on the one hand to strike out some _mezzo termine_ compatible with their dignity and with their previous refusals of Menschikoff's terms, promising that they will urge its acceptance on the Emperor with all their force, and on the other hand they have implored the Emperor to delay the occupation of the Principalities, so that by temporising, mediation, and a joint action and a judicious employment of diplomatic resources and astuteness, it is still possible some mode may be hit upon of terminating the quarrel.

_July 9th._--For the last fortnight or three weeks little has occurred which is worth noting. The Eastern Question drags on, as it is likely to do. Aberdeen, who ten days ago spoke very confidently of its being settled, now takes a more desponding view, and the confidence he has hitherto reposed in the Emperor of Russia is greatly shaken. Clarendon has long thought the prospect very gloomy, but they are still endeavouring to bring about an accommodation. The question resolves itself into this: what are the real wishes and views of the Emperor? If his present conduct is the execution of a long prepared purpose, and he thinks the time favourable for the destruction of Turkey, no efforts will be availing, and he will listen to no proposals that we can possibly make. If, on the contrary, he is conscious that he has got into a dilemma, and he wishes to extricate himself from it by any means not dishonourable to himself, and such as would not degrade him in the eyes of his own subjects, then, no doubt, diplomatic astuteness will sooner or later hit upon some expedient by which the quarrel may be adjusted. Which of these alternatives is the true one, time alone can show. Meanwhile the expense to which the Turks are put in the wretched state of their finances will prove ruinous to them, and, end how it may, the fall of the Turkish dominion has been accelerated by what has already taken place. There has been a great deal of discussion about bringing on debates on the Eastern Question in both Houses, but all the leading men of all parties have deprecated discussion, and it was finally determined last night that none should take place. Disraeli alone, who cares for nothing but making mischief, tried to bring it on, but in the House of Lords Derby took a different and more becoming course, and recommended Clanricarde to give it up. Disraeli urged Layard to persevere. Granville told me yesterday that while he lamented that Aberdeen was not a more judicious and conciliating leader in the House of Lords, and was so inferior in this respect to Lord Lansdowne, he liked him very much, thought he was a very good Prime Minister, and, above all, anything but deficient in political courage, in which respect he was by no means inferior to Palmerston himself.

THE INDIA BILL CARRIED.

The Government have been going on well enough on the whole. Their immense majority on the India Bill was matter of general surprise, and showed the wretched tactics of Disraeli, as well as his small influence over his party, for he could not get one hundred of the Tories to go with him. A few small holes have been made in Gladstone's Budget, but nothing of consequence. Tom Baring, however, told me he thought Gladstone had made some great mistakes, and that Graham would have been a better Chancellor of the Exchequer; but this I much doubt. Popularity is very necessary to a Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Graham would never have been so persuasive with the House as Gladstone.

WARLIKE VIEWS OF LORD PALMERSTON.

_July 12th._--The 'Times' newspaper, always famous for its versatility and inconsistency, has lately produced articles on the Eastern Question on the same day of the most opposite characters, one warlike and firm, the next vehemently pacific by some other hand. This is of small importance, but it is indicative of the difference which exists in the Cabinet on the subject, and the explanation of the inconsistency of the 'Times' is to be found in the double influence which acts on the paper. All along Palmerston has been urging a vigorous policy, and wished to employ more peremptory language and stronger measures towards Russia, while Aberdeen has been very reluctant to do as much as we have done, and would have been well content to advise Turkey to accept the last ultimatum of Russia, and so terminate what he considers a senseless and mischievous quarrel. Clarendon has had to steer between these two extremes, and while moderating the ardour of Palmerston, to stimulate Aberdeen, and persuade him to adopt a course congenial to public opinion in this country, which, however inclined to peace and abhorrent of war, is not at all disposed to connive at the aggrandisement of Russia, or to submit to the insolent dictation of the Emperor. The majority of the Cabinet have supported Clarendon, and approximate more nearly to the pacific policy of Aberdeen than to the stringent measures of Palmerston. When the two articles appeared in the 'Times,' to which I particularly allude, Clarendon approved of the first, and found great fault with the other, while Aberdeen wrote to Delane and expressed his strong approbation of the second, and his conviction that the public would sooner or later take the views therein set forth. Clarendon tells me that he has no doubt Aberdeen has on many occasions held language in various quarters that was not prudent under the circumstances, and was calculated to give erroneous impressions as to the intentions of the Government, and he thinks that the Emperor himself has been misled by what he may have heard both of the disposition and sentiments of the Prime Minister, and of the determination of the House of Commons and the country at large to abstain from war in every case except one in which our own honour and interests were _directly_ concerned.

I had a long talk with Clarendon on Sunday, when he told me that the chances of peace were a little better than they had been, inasmuch as there seemed to be a disposition at St. Petersburg to treat, and the Austrian Government was now in earnest bringing to bear all their influence on the Emperor to accept reasonable terms of accommodation. Colloredo brought him the copy of a despatch to St. Petersburg, which he said was excellent, very frank and free in its tone. Austria seems more fully sensible of the danger to herself of any war, which would inevitably let loose the revolutionary element all over the world. Clarendon has drawn up the project of a Convention which embraces all the _professed_ objects of the Emperor, and which the Turks may agree to; he sent it to Paris, whence Drouyn de Lhuys has returned it, with the full concurrence and assent of the French Government, and it went to Petersburg yesterday. The reception of this proposal will determine the question of peace or war.

_July 14th._--G-- said to me this morning that Palmerston is beginning to stir up matters afresh. I saw him yesterday morning at Holland House in close confabulation with Walewski, with whom I have no doubt he interchanged warlike sentiments, and complained of the lukewarmness of Aberdeen and Clarendon. It is evident that he is _at work_, and probably, according to his ancient custom, in some underhand way in the press. His flatterers tell him that a majority of the House of Commons would support _him_ and a warlike policy, and though he may wish to believe this, and perhaps does, he will hardly go the length of trying to break up this Cabinet, with the desperate hope of making another Government himself, based on the policy of going to war. Certain newspapers are always asserting that the Cabinet is divided and in dissension, and at the same time accusing it of timidity and weakness, urging strong measures, and asserting that, if we had employed such long ago, Russia would have been frightened, and never have proceeded to such lengths. But the Government are resolved, and wisely, to avoid war as long as they can, and if driven on to it, to be able to show the country that they had exhausted all means of preserving peace.

_July 18th._--At last there appears a probability of this Turkish question being amicably settled. On Saturday I was told that despatches were just come from Sir Hamilton Seymour of a more favourable character, and representing the Imperial Government as much more disposed to treat, with a real disposition to bring the negotiations to a successful issue. My informant added that Palmerston predicted that none of the projects and proposals which have emanated from the different Courts would be accepted at Petersburg, which he thought they all would. Yesterday I saw Clarendon, and found matters even in a still more promising state. After the Cabinet Walewski went to him, and communicated to him very important news (of a later date than Seymour's letters) from St. Petersburg, which to my mind is decisive of the question of peace. It appears that both France and Austria have been concocting notes and projects of a pacific tendency to be offered to the Emperor. There have been several of these, some framed at Constantinople, others at Paris. A short time ago the French Government prepared one, which it submitted to ours; Clarendon thought it would not answer, and told them so. They asked whether he had any objection to their sending it off to St. Petersburg and Vienna and making the experiment. He replied, none whatever, and though he did not think it would succeed, he should rejoice if it did, as, provided the affair could be settled, it did not matter how. In the meantime he drew up his own project of a Convention, which went to Paris, and received the cordial approbation of the Emperor; and this document is now on its way to Petersburg. In the meantime the French project was sent there, Castelbajac took it to Nesselrode, who read it very attentively, and said that he liked it very much, but that he could give no positive answer till he had submitted it to the Emperor. The same afternoon he saw the French minister again, and told him that he had laid the project before the Emperor Nicholas, and that His Majesty was not only satisfied, but grateful for it, 'non seulement satisfait, mais reconnaissant,' and that the only reason he did not at once close with it was that his ally, the Emperor of Austria, had also submitted a proposal, and he did not like to take another from another Court exclusively without previous communication with him. Clarendon thinks that his proposal will be still more agreeable to the Emperor than the French one, and that he will probably end in taking it; nor will there be any difficulty in this, because our's is so fully concurred in by France as to be in fact her's as much as our's.

SUCCESSION DUTIES BILL.

_July 31st._--Having been at Goodwood the last week, I have not troubled myself with politics, either home or foreign, nor have any events occurred to excite interest. The most important matter here has been the division in the House of Lords on Monday last on the Succession Duties Bill, on which the Opposition were signally defeated. For a long time the Government were very doubtful of obtaining a majority, but their whippers-in were more sanguine at last. Great exertions were made on both sides, the Derbyites whipped up all the men they could lay their hands on, and the Government fetched their ministers from Paris and Brussels, and the Lord Lieutenant of Ireland. The majority was greater than either side expected, and Derby and his crew were exceedingly disconcerted, and Derby himself much out of humour. When Bessborough went over to him after the division, and said 'Lord Aberdeen wants to know if you will object to the Bill being read a third time on Thursday next,' he pettishly replied, 'The Bill may go to the devil for all I care; I shall take no further trouble about it.'

_August 1st._--I saw Clarendon as usual yesterday (Sunday), when he read to me a letter from Sir Hamilton Seymour, giving an account of his delivering to Nesselrode the Convention which Clarendon sent over, as well as reading to him Clarendon's private letter, which was a stinging one, but very good. Nesselrode said of all the projects he liked that the best, and if it was tendered to them _from Vienna_, he thought it might do as the basis of an arrangement, but he could give no positive answer till he had submitted it to the Emperor. At the Cabinet on Saturday Clarendon read Seymour's letter, when his colleagues begged they might see the private letter of his which was alluded to, and he produced and read that likewise. It was generally approved of, but the next day Palmerston wrote a note to Clarendon, in which he expressed the warmest approbation of his note, and added that he had only refrained from saying all he thought of it at the Cabinet lest _his_ approval might make others think it was too strong. He added that he rejoiced that the management of our foreign affairs was in such able hands, and that, in fact, he (Clarendon) could do and say what Palmerston himself could not have done. It was a very handsome letter, very satisfactory both to Clarendon personally and as showing that there is no disagreement on the Eastern Question in the Cabinet, or at least between Palmerston and Clarendon, which is the essential point. Their union and friendship are remarkable when we recollect their past antagonism and Palmerston's jealousy of Clarendon, and the persuasion of both himself and Lady Palmerston that Clarendon was always waiting to trip up his heels and get his place. All these jealousies and suspicions were, however, dissipated when Clarendon refused the Foreign Office last year, since which time they have been the best of friends, and Palmerston was quite satisfied at his having the Foreign Office. With regard to the chances of a pacific settlement, the assurances from St. Petersburg are all very favourable, but the acts of the Russian generals in the Principalities are quite inconsistent with them, and between these conflicting manifestations Clarendon is in no small doubt and apprehension as to the result.

NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIA AND TURKEY.

_London, August 8th._--Ever since last Monday, when Clarendon made a speech in the House of Lords on which a bad interpretation was put in reference to the question of peace or war, there has been a sort of panic, and the public mind, which refused at first to admit the possibility of war, suddenly rushed to the opposite conclusion, and everybody became persuaded that war was inevitable. The consequence was a great fall in the funds, and the depreciation of every sort of security. So matters remained till the end of the week. On Saturday afternoon I met Walewski, who told me he had that day received a letter from Castelbajac (the French Ambassador at St. Petersburg), informing him that the Emperor had signified his willingness to accept the proposal which was then expected from Vienna, and last night fresh news came that the proposal had arrived, and he had said he would take it, if the Turks would send an ambassador with it, exactly as it had been submitted to him. This I heard late last night, and Granville considered it conclusive of an immediate settlement. But this morning I went to Clarendon and found him not so sure, and not regarding the pacific solution as so indubitable; there still remain some important matters of detail to be settled, though certainly the affair wears a much more favourable aspect, and there is every reason to hope it will all end well. But while this proposal was concocted at Vienna, the Cabinet here (last Saturday week) made some small verbal alterations in it, so that ultimately it will not be presented for the Emperor's formal acceptance word for word the same, and if he wants a pretext to back out of his present engagement, he can therein find one, as he only agreed to take it if it was word for word the same. Then it has not yet been submitted to the Turks, and it is by no means sure they may not make difficulties, or that Stratford Canning may not raise obstacles instead of using all his influence to procure their agreement, so that Clarendon does not consider that we are _out of the wood_, though he expects on the whole that it will end well. If it does it will be the triumph of diplomacy, and a signal proof of the wisdom of moderation and patience. Granville says it will be principally owing to Aberdeen, who has been very staunch and bold in defying public clamour, abuse, and taunts, and in resisting the wishes and advice of Palmerston, who would have adopted a more stringent and uncompromising course.

_August 9th._--At Court yesterday Aberdeen was quite confident of the settlement of the Eastern affair, and Brunnow, who was there with the Duchess of Leuchtenberg to see the Queen, very smiling. Clanricarde interrupted Clarendon in the House of Lords, and made a violent speech. Clarendon answered very well, without committing himself. The Government are in high spirits at the prospect of winding up this prosperous Session with the settlement of the Eastern Question: nothing else is wanting to their success.

_August 11th._--I saw Clarendon yesterday. Nothing new, but he said he fully expected Stratford Canning would play some trick at Constantinople, and throw obstacles in the way of settlement. This seems to me hardly possible, unless he behaves foolishly as well as dishonestly, and it can hardly be believed that his temper and Russian antipathies will betray him into such extravagant conduct. It is, however, impossible to consider the affair as '_settled_.'

Yesterday all the world went to the great naval review at Portsmouth, except myself. It appears to have been a fine but tedious sight, for Granville set off at 5.30 A.M., and only got back at one in the morning.

_August 27th._--Since the 11th I have been absent from town, at Grimstone for York races, then at Hatchford, and since that gouty. While at York the Session closed with _éclat_ by a speech of Palmerston's in his most flashy and successful style. John Russell gave a night at last for the discussion of the Turkish question, and made a sort of explanation, which was tame, meagre, and unsatisfactory. After some speeches expressive of disappointment and disapprobation, Cobden made an oration in favour of peace at any price, and this drew up Palmerston, who fell upon him with great vigour and success. The discussion would have ended languidly and ill for the Government but for this brilliant improvisation, which carried the House entirely with it. It was not, however, if analysed and calmly considered, of much use to the Government as to their foreign policy, for it was only an answer to Cobden, and Palmerston did not say one word in defence of the policy which has been adopted, nor identify himself with it, as he might as well have done. Though there was nothing in it positively indicative of dissent and dissatisfaction, any one might not unfairly draw the inference that, if Palmerston had had his own way, he would have taken a more stringent and less patient course. However, nothing has been made of this, and on the whole his speech did good, because it closed the discussion handsomely, and left the impression of Palmerston's having cast his lot for good and all with his present colleagues, as is really the case.

TURKISH DIFFICULTIES.

The Session ended with a very flourishing and prosperous speech from the Throne, and nothing was wanting to the complete success of the Government but the settlement of the Turkish question, which, however, seems destined to be delayed some time longer; for the Turks have refused to accept the Vienna note, except with some modifications, though these are said to be so immaterial that we hope the Emperor will not object to them. But all this is vexatious, because it reopens the whole question, causes delay and uncertainty, and keeps the world in suspense and apprehension. Granville told me that what had occurred showed how much more sagacious Aberdeen had been as to this affair than Palmerston, the former having always maintained that there would be no difficulty with the Emperor, but if any arose it would be from the Turks; whereas Palmerston was always sure the Turks would make none, but that the Emperor would refuse all arrangements.

_August 28th._--It seems the Turks, after a delay of ten days from receiving the proposition, sent it back to Vienna, asking for some not important alterations; but immediately afterwards they required a stipulation for the evacuation of the Principalities, and guarantees that they should not be occupied again. It is very improbable that the Emperor will listen to such conditions. Nesselrode has all along told Seymour that they (the Russians) mean in fulfilment of their pledges to evacuate the Principalities, as soon as they have got the required satisfaction, but that it must not be made _a condition_, and entreated him to abstain from any demand which might give an air of compulsion to the act, much in the same way as we have told Nesselrode he must not attempt to make any stipulation about the withdrawal of our fleet. Clarendon thinks that the Emperor is certain to reject the Turkish terms, and that the Turks are very capable of declaring war thereupon; for in their last communication they said that they were prepared for 'toutes les éventualités,' and he suspects that Stratford has not _bonâ fide_ striven to induce them to accept the proffered terms. Their rejection is the more unreasonable because the proposal is a hash-up of Menschikoff's original Note, and that which the Turks proposed in lieu of it, but in which the Turkish element preponderates, so that not only are their honour and dignity consulted, but in refusing they recede from their own original proposal.

The Queen is gone to Ireland, and Lord Granville with her, who is afterwards to attend her to Balmoral. This is new, because hitherto she has always had with her either the Premier or a Secretary of State. Granville is to be relieved when circumstances admit, but at present there is no other arrangement feasible. Aberdeen and Clarendon are both kept in town till the question is settled. Newcastle got leave to go to Clumber for his boys' holidays, and Her Majesty does not desire to have the Home Secretary.

But Charles Villiers told me last night that Lord Palmerston's influence and popularity in the House of Commons are greater than ever, and if this Government should be broken up by internal dissension, he would have no difficulty in forming another, and gathering round him a party to support him. This is what the Tories are anxiously looking to, desiring no better than to serve under him, and flattering themselves that in his heart he personally dislikes his colleagues, and in political matters agrees with themselves. They pay him every sort of court, never attack him, and not only defer to him on all occasions, but make all the difference they can between him and the rest of the Government; nor does he discourage or reject these civilities, though he does not invite them, or say or do anything inconsistent with his present position, but he probably thinks the disposition towards him of that large political party enhances his value to his own friends and increases his power, besides affording to him a good alternative in case anything should happen to break up the present Government or separate him from it.

_September 2nd._--For the last week the settlement of this tedious Turkish question has appeared more remote than ever, and Clarendon was almost in despair when I saw him a few days ago, and the more so because he suspected that Lord Stratford was at the bottom of the difficulties raised by the Divan. However, according to the last accounts it would seem that Stratford was not to blame, and had done what he could to get the Turks to comply with the terms of the Conference. At this moment the affair wears rather a better aspect, and my own belief is that it will be settled. It is a great bore that it drags on in this way, creating alarm and uncertainty, shaking the funds, and affecting commerce.

LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S POSITION.

The Duke of Bedford, of whom I have seen nothing for a long time, called on me a few days ago, and talked over the present state of affairs, and the position of Lord John Russell. He said Lord John was now quite satisfied with it, and rejoiced at his own comparative freedom, and his immunity from the constant attacks of which he used to be the object; and he is now conscious that, by the part he has acted in waiving his own pretensions, he has not only not degraded himself, but has greatly raised himself in public estimation and acquired much credit and popularity, besides rendering the country a great service. He is very well with his colleagues, and gratified at the deference shown him, and the consideration he enjoys in the House of Commons. There, however, I know from other sources, all the popularity is engrossed by Palmerston and by Gladstone, and Lord John has foolishly suffered Palmerston to take his place as leader very often, because he chose to stay away at Richmond, and not come near the House.

The Duke took this opportunity of telling me what is now a very old story, but which he said he thought he had never told me before, and I am not sure whether he did or not. It was what happened to him at the time of the formation of this Government last year, of which he was evidently very proud. Just before the Derby Government broke down, and before that reunion at Woburn of which so much was said, the Prince gave him to understand that they should look to him for advice if anything occurred, which they were every day expecting. The Duke was at Woburn, and one morning when the hounds met there and half the county was at breakfast in the great hall, word was brought him that a messenger had come from Osborne with a letter for him. He found it was a letter from the Prince, in which he informed him that this was despatched by a safe and trustworthy hand, and nobody was to know of its being sent; that the Derby Government was at an end, and the Queen and Prince were anxious for his opinion on the state of affairs, the dispositions of public men, and what course they had better take. The Duke had recently been in personal communication with all the leaders, with Aberdeen and Lord John, Newcastle, Clarendon, Lansdowne, Palmerston, and others, and he was therefore apprised of all their sentiments and in a condition to give very full information to the Court. He sat himself down and with the greatest rapidity (his horse at the door to go hunting) wrote four or five sheets of paper containing the amplest details of the sentiments and views of these different statesmen, and ended by advising that the Queen should send for Lords Lansdowne and Aberdeen--as she did. Lord John had already told him he did not wish to be sent for. After this of course he could not resent the advice the Duke gave; and happily Lord John was firm in resisting the advice of some of those about him, and acted on the dictates of his own conscientious judgement and the sound advice of his friends.

OPPOSITION OF LORD STRATFORD.

_September 3rd._--I dined last night _tête-à-tête_ with Clarendon and heard all the details of the state of the Turkish question, and read the interesting correspondence of Cowley, with his accounts of his conversations with the Emperor, and many other things. Clarendon is very uneasy because he thinks the Emperor Nicholas' pride will not let him accept the Note as modified by _the Turks_, though he would have accepted the same Note if it had been presented originally by the Conference. This is one danger. The next is one at Constantinople, where there is a strong bigoted violent party for war, disposed to dethrone the Sultan and replace him by his brother. This brother (of whom I never heard before) is a man of more energy than the Sultan, and is connected with the fanatical party. The Sultan himself is enervated by early debauchery and continual drunkenness, and therefore in great danger should he by any unpopular measures provoke an outbreak from the violent faction. Clarendon thinks that Stratford has encouraged the resistance of the Divan to the proposals of the Conference, and that he might have persuaded the Turks to accept the terms if he had chosen to do so and set about it in a proper manner; but Clarendon says that he has lived there so long, and is animated with such a personal hatred of the Emperor, that he is full of the Turkish spirit; and this and his temper together have made him take a part directly contrary to the wishes and instructions of his Government. He thinks he wishes to be recalled that he may make a grievance of it, and come home to do all the mischief he can. Westmorland wrote word the other day that Stratford's language was very hostile to his Government and the Ministers of all the other Powers at Constantinople, thought he had actually resigned, and reported the fact to Vienna.

The most important question now pending is what to do with the fleets. They cannot remain much longer in Besika Bay, and must either retire to Vourla or enter the Dardanelles. The Emperor Napoleon wishes they should enter the Dardanelles, but only a little way, and not go on to Constantinople; and Clarendon takes the same view, proposing a _mezzo termine_. The Emperor professes an earnest desire for a peaceful solution, and the strongest determination to act in concert with England to the end, and his views seem very sensible and proper. But, notwithstanding this disposition, in which he probably is sincere, there is reason to believe that he is all the time keeping up a sort of secret and underhand communication with Russia, and the evidence of this is rather curious. It appears that he has recently written a letter to the Duchess of Hamilton, in which he says that he believes the Russians will not evacuate the Principalities, and that he does not care if they stay there. This letter the Duchess showed to Brunnow, and he imparted it to Aberdeen, who told Clarendon, but none of the other Ministers know anything of it. Clarendon wrote word of this to Cowley, and told him to make what use of it he thought fit. In the first instance he said something to Drouyn de Lhuys of the Emperor's entertaining views different from our's, which Drouyn repeated to the Emperor, who spoke to Cowley about it, and protested that he had no separate or different objects, when Cowley, without mentioning names, told him what he had heard of his having written. The Emperor made an evasive answer to this, but gave many assurances of his determination to act with us heartily and sincerely. This incident seems to have made a great impression both on Cowley and Clarendon, particularly as both know something more. Cowley says he knows that the Emperor has a private correspondence with Castelbajac, of which Drouyn de Lhuys is ignorant, and Seymour writes to Clarendon that he has observed for some time past a great lukewarmness on the part of the French Minister in pressing the Russian Government, and an evident leaning to them. As the Duchess of Hamilton has no intimacy with Brunnow, it appears very extraordinary that she should communicate to him a letter of the Emperor's, and such a letter, which would be a great indiscretion unless he had secretly desired her to do so; and all these circumstances taken together look very like a little intrigue between the Emperor and the Russian Court, which would also be very consistent with his secret, false, and clandestine mode of conducting his affairs. It is probable enough that he may wish to keep on good terms with Russia and at the same time maintain his intimate connexion with England. That he is bent on avoiding war there can be no doubt, and for very good reasons, for France is threatened with a scarcity, and he is above all things bent on keeping the people supplied with food at low prices; and for this object the French Government is straining every nerve and prepared to make any amount of pecuniary sacrifice; but the necessity for this, which absorbs all their means, renders it at the same time particularly desirable to maintain peace in Europe.

DISPOSAL OF THE FLEET.

There never was a case so involved in difficulties and complications of different sorts, all the particulars of which I heard last night; but the affair is so tangled, that it is impossible to weave it into an intelligible and consistent narrative, and I can only jot down fragments, which may hereafter serve to explain circumstances connected with the _dénouement_, whenever it takes place. John Russell and Palmerston are both come to town, so that a little Cabinet will discuss this matter. Palmerston is extremely reasonable, does not take the part of the Turks, but on the contrary blames them severely for making difficulties he thinks absurd and useless, but is still for not letting them be crushed. He is on the best terms with Clarendon, and goes along with him very cordially in his policy on this question. Both Palmerston and Lord John seem to agree with Clarendon on the question of the disposal of the fleet better than Aberdeen, who is always for trusting the Emperor, maintaining peace, and would be quite contented to send the fleet to Vourla or Tenedos, and would see with regret the more energetic course of entering the Dardanelles. However, there is no chance of any material difference on this score, and I have no doubt, if the question is not settled before the end of the month, the fleets will anchor within the Straits and there remain.

I was glad to find that the Queen has consented to let Palmerston take his turn at Balmoral, and Aberdeen has informed him that he is to go there. It was done by Aberdeen speaking to the Prince at Osborne, who said he thought there would be no difficulty. The Queen acquiesced with the good sense she generally shows on such occasions, being always open to reason, and ready to consent to whatever can be proved to her to be right or expedient.

LORD STRATFORD'S GOOD FAITH.

_September 4th._--I went to Winchester yesterday, and fell in with Graham in the train, so we went together and had a great deal of talk, mostly on the Eastern Question. He thinks the Emperor of Russia will not accept the Turkish alterations, and he is very hot against Stratford, to whom he attributes all the difficulties. He has heard that Stratford has held language hostile to the Government, and he is inclined to think not only that he has acted treacherously towards his employers, but that proofs of his treachery might be obtained, and he is all for getting the evidence if possible, and acting upon it at once, by recalling him; he thinks the proofs might be obtained through the Turkish Ministers, and if they can be, he would not stop to enquire who might be displeased, or what the effect might be, but do it at once. He acknowledges, however, that it would not do to act on surmises or reports, and that nothing but clear proofs of Stratford's misconduct, such as will satisfy Parliament, would render such a step justifiable or safe. With regard to the fleets, he says there is no reason why they should not remain in Besika Bay, and it is a mistake to suppose they could not, and he is very decidedly against their entering the Dardanelles in any case, because it would be contrary to treaty and afford the Emperor of Russia a just _casus belli_; and he maintains that his having (contrary to treaties and international rights) occupied the Principalities affords no reason why we should infringe them in another direction. When this question comes to be discussed, his voice will evidently be for not entering the Dardanelles, though he acknowledges that we cannot retreat while the Russians remain where they are. He talked a great deal about Palmerston, of whom he has some distrust, and fancied he has been in communication with Stratford, and that he would concur with him in his proceedings, and he expressed great satisfaction when I told him that Palmerston and Clarendon were on the most cordial and confidential terms, and that the former entirely disapproved of the conduct of the Turks (which is that of Stratford) in regard to the Note. He thinks Palmerston looks to being Prime Minister, if anything happened to Aberdeen, but that neither he nor John Russell could hold the office, as neither would consent to the elevation of the other. On the whole, he inclines to the opinion that Palmerston has made up his mind to go on with this Government and his present colleagues, that he means to act fairly and honestly with and by them, and has no _arrière pensée_ towards the Tories, though he is not sorry to have them always looking to him, and paying him, as they do, excessive court. It ensures him great support and an easy life in the House of Commons, where, however, he says Palmerston has done very little this year, and he does not seem much impressed with the idea of his having gained very considerably there, or obtained a better position than he had before.

_September 8th._--I saw Clarendon on Sunday. There is nothing new, but he said he would lay two to one the Emperor does not accept the modified Note; it will be a contest between his pride and his interest, for his army is in such a state of disease and distress that he is in no condition to make war; on the other hand, he cannot without extreme humiliation accept the Turkish Note. What will happen, if he refuses, nobody can possibly divine. The four Ministers met to discuss the matter, and were very harmonious; Palmerston not at all for violent measures, and Clarendon said he himself was the most warlike of the four. I told him of my journey with Graham and all that he had said. He replied that he knew Graham was very violent against Stratford, but that it would be impossible to make out any case against him, as he certainly had read to the Turkish Minister all his (Clarendon's) despatches and instructions, and he gave the most positive assurances, which it would be difficult to gainsay, that he had done everything in his power to induce the Turkish Government to give way to the advice of the Conference, and whatever his secret wishes and opinions might be, there was no official evidence to be had that he had failed in doing his duty fairly by his own Government; therefore it would be out of the question to recall him.

_September 20th._--At Doncaster all last week; I found Clarendon yesterday very much alarmed at the prospect in the East. He thinks it will be impossible to restrain the Turkish war party; he told me that the Conference at Vienna had imparted their Note to the Turkish Ambassador there, and both he and his dragoman had expressed their entire approbation of it. They had considered this to afford a strong presumption that it would not be unpalateable at Constantinople, but it was not sent there because this would have occasioned so much delay, and it was desirable to get the Russians out of the Principalities as speedily as possible. The Russian generals had actually received orders to prepare for the evacuation, which the Emperor would have commanded the instant he heard that the Turks were willing to send the Vienna Note. The Emperor Napoleon has again given the strongest assurances of his determination in no case whatever to separate his policy from ours, his resolution to adhere to the English alliance, and to maintain peace _à tout prix_, which he frankly owns to be indispensably necessary to the interests of his country. The Austrians are already beginning to hang back from taking any decided part in opposition to Russia, and while still ready to join in making every exertion to maintain peace, they are evidently determined if war breaks out to take no part against Russia, and this disposition is sure to be improved by the interview which is about to take place between the Emperors of Russia and Austria.

PROSPECTS OF WAR.

_September 26th._--I have been at Hatchford all last week. I saw Clarendon on Thursday before I went there, and heard that two ships of each fleet were gone up the Dardanelles,[1] and that the rest would probably soon follow, as the French were now urging that measure. He was then going to Aberdeen to propose calling the Cabinet together, the state of affairs becoming more critical every hour, and apparently no chance of averting war. The prospect was not the brighter from the probability of a good deal of difference of opinion when they do meet. He showed me a letter from Palmerston, in which he spoke very coolly of such a contingency as war with Russia and Austria, and with his usual confidence and flippancy of the great blows that might be inflicted on both Powers, particularly alluding to the possible expulsion of the Austrians from Italy, an object of which he has probably never lost sight. Meanwhile the violence and scurrility of the press here exceeds all belief. Day after day the Radical and Tory papers, animated by very different sentiments and motives, pour forth the most virulent abuse of the Emperor of Russia, of Austria, and of this Government, especially of Aberdeen.

[Footnote 1: The British vessels were steamers, the 'Retribution' and another. There was at that time only one line-of-battle ship in each fleet having steam power; all the other vessels of the line were sailing ships.]