Part 1

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THE GREAT WAR OF 189—

THE GREAT WAR OF 189— _A FORECAST_

BY

REAR-ADMIRAL P. COLOMB COLONEL J. F. MAURICE, R.A., CAPTAIN F. N. MAUDE, ARCHIBALD FORBES, CHARLES LOWE, D. CHRISTIE MURRAY AND F. SCUDAMORE

_WITH NUMEROUS ILLUSTRATIONS FROM SKETCHES SPECIALLY MADE FOR ‘BLACK AND WHITE’ BY F. VILLIERS_

LONDON

WILLIAM HEINEMANN

1895

_SECOND EDITION_

_First Edition, December, 1892_

NOTE.

The following narrative appeared originally in the pages of _Black and White_, the work being the outcome of consultations between some of the most eminent authorities upon modern warfare and international politics. The story has been carefully revised, and is now reprinted in response to a general wish that it should be available in a convenient form.

CONTENTS

PAGE

Attempted Assassination of Prince Ferdinand of Bulgaria, 1

Russian Movement upon the Austrian Frontier, 26

Interview between General Caprivi and the French Ambassador, 30

Departure of Troops to the East, 32

Banquet in the Schloss, 33

Ill-treatment of a War-correspondent by the German Hussars, 37

The Austrian Plan of Campaign, 40

First Collision of Russian and German Troops, 43

Warlike Excitement in Paris, 44

Declaration of War by France, 52

The German Plan of Campaign, 61

The French Plan of Campaign, 65

Public Feeling of England, 66

Battle at Alexandrovo, 71

Occupation of Alexandrovo by the Germans, 74

Capture of Czenstochau by Prince George of Saxony, 76

Night Attack by the Russians, 78

Repulse of the German Army, 85

Excitement in Brussels, 86

The Meeting of the Four Fleets, 92

Retreat of French Cruisers, 96

On Board the Flagship, 99

Preparations for the Landing of British Troops at Trebizonde, 102

Repulse of the Russians, 106

The Russo-German Campaign—Great Battle at Skierniwiçe, 110

Italy mobilises her Army, and takes the Field against France, 121

The Council of War, 124

Italian Route—Through the Riviera, 126

Battle of Costebelle, 129

The Landing at Trebizonde, 132

Mobilisation of the First Army Corps, 138

Russia declares War against England, 147

Declaration of War in London, 148

The Position of Affairs, 158

Preparations in the Mediterranean Fleet, 160

The Battle of Sardinia, 165

The Franco-German Campaign—Cavalry Engagement near Ligny, 171

Engagement at Vaux Champagne, 178

The Battle of Machault, 184

The War in the far East—The Capture of Vladivostock, 193

Events in the East of Europe, 199

Arrival of British Troops in the Sea of Marmora, 201

Feeling in Australia, 206

Instructions from the Admiralty, 211

The Franco-German Campaign—The German Advance, 213

Advance of the Second and Third Armies on Paris, 221

The March upon the French Capital, 223

British Campaign in Bulgaria, 225

The Bombardment of Varna, 228

Rout of the Russian Army, 234

The Battle of Kosluji, 236

Enthusiasm in Cairo, 241

French Intrigues in Egypt, 248

Fierce Battle near Wady Halfa, 252

The Franco-German Campaign—Rescue of Paris, 258

Advance of General de Galliffet, 262

Brisk Cavalry Engagement, 265

Great Victory of the French, 267

The General Situation, 274

Capture of Sierra Leone by the French, 279

Siege of Herat, 281

Dispatch of Troops by the Canadian Pacific Railway to India, 282

Cessation of Hostilities—France and Germany, 287

England and Russia, 289

The Services of England, 293

General Effects of the War, 295

APPENDIX.

Sir Charles Tupper on Imperial Defence, 299

An Interview with the Right Hon. Sir Charles Dilke, 303

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

PAGE

The Bombardment of Varna, _Frontispiece_

The Attempted Assassination of Prince Ferdinand of 11 Bulgaria,

M. Stambuloff, Prime Minister of Bulgaria, appointed 13 Regent after the attempted Assassination of Prince Ferdinand,

The Bulgarian Mobilisation—Troops marching through the 15 streets of Philippopolis,

The Servo-Bulgarian Campaign—Through Pirot to the Front, 17

An Affair of Outpost—The First Shot in the 19 Servo-Bulgarian Campaign,

The Occupation of Belgrade—‘Here at Last!’ 21

With the Turks: Admiral Woods Pacha’s Fleet of Torpedo 24 Boats steaming through the Bosphorus,

Russian Infantry Landing at Varna, 25

The Knights of Malta at Ambulance Work, 41

Extraordinary Scene in the Place de la Concorde: The Mob 47 tearing the Mourning Emblems from the Statue of Strasburg,

The Naval Battle off Dantzig—The Sinking of a Russian 58 Torpedo Boat and Rescue of the Crew by an English Yacht,

The Naval Battle off Dantzig—Wounded Russians on Board 60 the English Yacht,

A Scene in the House of Commons—Sir William Harcourt 68 questions the Government,

British Troops in the Place Verte, Antwerp, 88

Sinking of the Yacht ’Elaine, 97

British Troops landing at Trebizonde, 103

The Storming of Skierniwiçe, 119

Italian Artillery crossing the Mont Cenis, 128

Lord Salisbury addressing the House of Lords on the 134 Question of Peace and War,

The Mobilisation of the English Army—Troops marching 139 through the Dock Gates, Portsmouth,

Reserve Men served with the New Magazine-Rifle, and off 143 to the front to-morrow,

Reading the Mobilisation Order, 145

Declaration of War against Russia from the Steps of the 149 Royal Exchange,

Calling Out the Volunteers—Parade of the Signallers of 155 the St. Martin’s Le Grand Corps,

Our Correspondent at the Battle of Vaux Champagne, 180

The Battle of Machault: The German Cavalry charging the 186 Rallying Squares of the French,

The Taking of Vladivostock: Goorkas Protecting the Guns, 197

British Transports passing the Dardanelles: Fort Chanak 202 saluting the English Ships,

The Sultan, Lord Wolseley, and Sir Clare Ford watching 205 the Passage of the British Fleet through the Bosphorus from the Steps of the Dolma Baghtche Palace,

German Cavalry Attack by Night on the French Bivouacs, 220

Scene in the Streets of Rheims: German Troops clearing 222 the Streets of French Rioters,

The Battle of Kosluji: Sir Evelyn Wood’s Attack on the 238 Russian Forces,

Map of the Fight near Varna, 239

Scene outside Shepheard’s Hotel, Cairo: Tommy Atkins 243 about to quit Egypt,

Soudanese Attack upon a Reconnoitring Party, 254

French Cavalry charging the Prussian Infantry, 270

Our New Route to India: A Sleeping-Car on the Canadian 283 Pacific Railway,

Tommy Atkins bargaining with the Indians on the Canadian 285 Pacific Railway,

Our New Route to India: Rations on the Canadian and 286 Pacific Railway,

Sir Charles Tupper in his Private Office in Victoria 300 Street, Westminster,

The Right Hon. Sir Charles Dilke, 304

THE GREAT WAR OF 189—

A FORECAST.

In the following narrative an attempt is made to forecast the course of events preliminary and incidental to the Great War which, in the opinion of military and political experts, will probably occur in the immediate future. The writers, who are well-known authorities on international politics and strategy, have striven to derive material for their description of the conflict from the best sources, to conceive the most probable campaigns and acts of policy, and generally to give to their work the verisimilitude and actuality of real warfare.

ATTEMPTED ASSASSINATION OF PRINCE FERDINAND OF BULGARIA.

FULL ACCOUNT OF THE MURDEROUS ASSAULT; CRITICAL CONDITION OF THE WOUNDED PRINCE.

(_By Telegraph from our Own Correspondent, Mr. Francis Scudamore._)

CONSTANTINOPLE, _Sunday, April 3_ (_viâ_ VARNA). _Noon._

A report has been current here since a late hour last evening, to the effect that an attempt has been made to assassinate Prince Ferdinand of Bulgaria, at a mining town named Samakoff, about forty miles south of Sofia. It is said that the Prince, who had been shooting in the Balabancha Balkans, was driving into Samakoff towards evening yesterday, when his carriage was stopped, and he was attacked by a number of men armed with knives and pistols. The Prince’s attendants succeeded in saving their master’s life and in beating off some and capturing others of his assailants, but not before His Highness had been severely wounded.

Prince Ferdinand was carried into the house of an American missionary resident in Samakoff, where he now lies. His Highness’s condition is serious, and is rendered the more critical from the fact that there is no very adequate surgical aid obtainable in Samakoff, and it was necessary to telegraph for doctors to Sofia and Philippopolis.

The greatest excitement reigns in Constantinople since the receipt of this intelligence, and very grave anxiety is expressed in diplomatic circles as to the possible consequences of this terrible misfortune.

EDITORIAL COMMENTS.

It is impossible to overrate the grave significance of this attempted assassination at Samakoff, which in the light of our Correspondent’s telegrams would seem to be the prelude to very serious complications in the East. It is, of course, too early to estimate its influence upon general European politics, but we are quite within reason in saying that the dramatic incident may prove to have endangered the peace of Europe. We have long familiarised ourselves with the thought that the Great War of which the world has been in constant dread for some years back, and which is to re-adjust the balance of the Continent, is much more likely to break out in the region of the Danube than on the banks of the Rhine, and the incident at Samakoff may well precipitate the catastrophe. The situation is most perilous, and it is to be hoped that strenuous endeavours will be made by the Powers to chain up the ‘dogs of war,’ and spare this dying century, at least, the spectacle of their release. Since the Treaty of Berlin patched up the last serious disturbance in Europe, there has been peace; peace, it is true; but a peace subject to perpetual menace, and weighty matter for the consideration of statesmen. Europe has lived, as it were, in armed camps, neutral and watchful; and all the time the nations have prepared against war as though war were at their doors. The dastardly outrage at Samakoff comes at a sorry time.

For we repeat our firm conviction, based on long and close attention to the political motives at work among the nations, that it is on the Danube and not on the Rhine that the torch of war will first be kindled. To a pessimist, indeed, if not to an unbiassed observer, we may well seem of late to have been drawing nearer and nearer to a general war. The world has never been afflicted with more persistent rumours of war. No single day has passed without bringing us its perturbing crop of tremors and apprehensions about the stability of the European peace. From week to week the Jewish speculators on all the Bourses of Christendom have been robbed of their sleep, and, worse still, of their dividends, by telegrams as to the secret massing of troops on this or that frontier, and of ruinous uprisings in various subject and down-trodden countries. Now it is the Black Sea Treaty that is going to be forcibly robbed of its entire Dardanelles clauses, and again the Bargain of Berlin is about to be perforated, for the sixth time, by the sword-point of the Czar. Then the Roumanians wake up to find the Russians beginning to hem them in on three sides; while, again, newspaper readers are horrified by a revelation of the rapacious passions which some dignify by the title of ‘principle of nationality,’ and others denounce as criminal ‘lust of land,’ that are on the verge of outbreak at Athens and Sofia, at St. Petersburg, at Belgrade, at Vienna, at Paris, and even at Rome.

Where is the wisdom of highly-placed men like the German Emperor and his new Chancellor assuring the world, in addresses from the throne and after-dinner speeches, that the peace of Europe was never more assured than at present, and that the political horizon is without a cloud even of the size of Elijah’s ominous and initial speck of vapour? What is the truth or the wisdom of such assurances, when the thorn of Alsace-Lorraine is still sticking in the flesh of the unforgiving and revengeful French; when Italy still has some territory ‘unredeemed;’ when Denmark still harbours a deep grudge against her truculent despoiler; when even the peaceful Swedes, who are still animated by the spirit of the Great Gustavus, long to free their former subjects, the Finns, from the tyrannical mastery of the Russians; when the Spaniards would gladly profit by a European complication—even if they shrank from the thought of an audacious _coup de main_—to repossess themselves of Gibraltar; when the Portuguese, following suit, would never hesitate to kick their British rival in Africa, if they deemed him to be down; when the Cretans, egged on by the Greeks, are firmly resolved to throw off the galling yoke of the Turks; when ex-ministers like M. Tricoupis stump about the Balkan Peninsula, openly preaching Pan-hellenism and Balkan Federation against the advocates of disunited nationalities; when the Servians secretly vow to settle up old scores with their Bulgarian vanquishers, and when these Bulgarian victors themselves, with their Prime Minister more than their Prince at their head, are sternly determined to be free and independent alike of Sultan and of Czar; when Austria continues to cast longing eyes in the direction of Salonika; and when, above all things, the Colossus of the North, with his head pillowed on snow, and his feet swathed in flowers of the sunny South, has sworn by the soul of his assassinated and sainted father that he will ever remain true to the intention of his sire in exacting a solid equivalent of power, prestige, and territorial foothold on the Balkan Peninsula for all the blood and treasure spent by Russia in the task of ‘liberating’ the Bulgarians; when all these things, all these slumbering passions and meditated schemes of aggression and revenge are duly considered, how is it possible for any one, be he sovereign or subject, to lull the world asleep by false assurances of peace which is sooner or later doomed to be broken?

The Triple Alliance will no more succeed in terrorising the souls of all these secret plotters and designers, and in giving them pause, than three inter-locked mountain oaks or firs could stay the downward course of an extended series of separate avalanches, which rend away with them pines, and oaks, and all, in their resistless rush. But has the avalanche, which we thus dread, really and truly at last begun to move? We sincerely trust not, but for the present at least, the omens in the East have an exceedingly ugly and alarming look, and we shall await the arrival of further telegrams with the greatest anxiety. The Triple Alliance is not an embankment that can bar the advancing flood of war, but rather a detached fortress which must itself soon incur the danger of being surrounded and even submerged by the rushing, whirling waters of European strife. Though the parties to this three-cornered pact have agreed to place their fire-engines, so to speak, at each other’s disposal in the event of external danger from fire to their respective domiciles, it is beyond the reach of these Powers to prevent the outbreak of a conflagration, from accident or arson, among the rickety, wind-swept, and thatch-roofed mansions of their neighbours; nor is there any fact better established in connection with fires than that they are used by thieves and anarchists for the purpose of sudden plunder and disorder, at once upon the persons and property of the victims and beholders of such catastrophes.

Let us suppose, for example, that as a consequence of this most alarming incident at Samakoff, hostilities should ensue between Russia and Austria, the former being the aggressor. In that case Germany—in virtue of her published Treaty with the Hapsburg Monarchy—would almost immediately have to take the field. Now, in such a contingency, is there not a grave danger that France, seizing the golden opportunity for which she has so long been waiting, would at once mobilise her army, and march the greater part of it towards the Rhine? And is it not certain that the immediate result of such a revengeful step on her part would be that Italy, true likewise to her Treaty engagement with Germany, would make haste to spring upon the flank of the Republic?

It is not well to forecast evils, but at the same time it is well to look clearly ahead. We know surely enough the real nature of the feelings with which the Bulgarians are regarded by their ‘Liberators,’ just as we are equally cognisant of the true character of those who profess to be the Sultan’s ‘friends,’ and who, with the privilege of most intimate amity, have repeatedly helped themselves to disintegrating slices of his dominions. We need not remind our readers of that bitterness which still rankles in the breasts of the Roumanians at the memory of the manner in which they were ‘rewarded’ for services rendered at the Gravitza Redoubt and elsewhere during the war against the Turks; a bitterness which was only equalled by the rage of the Russians when they recognised the supreme folly of their conduct in forcing Roumania to accept the Dobrudja in exchange for Bessarabia, and thus depriving themselves of a _pied à terre_ and strategical base of operations south of the Danube, in the direction of the grand goal of their ultimate ambition—the Golden Horn. It is as much the desire of Russia to undo this unfortunate bargain as it is to shake herself free from the intolerable shackles that restrain her liberty of action in the Black Sea, and seal up the outlets thereof against her ships of war. Russia is only awaiting a proper opportunity for accomplishing these two other stages in what she deems to be her destiny (and does not everything come to him who can wait?) just as she continues to pursue her anti-English policy in Central Asia with steady, disdainful, unresisted strides, ever lessening the distance between her own frontiers and those of India, and thus paving the way for the execution of her policy of preventing the forces of England from being thrown into the balance should any complication arise in the East of Europe. ‘And ever,’ as Tennyson sang, ‘upon the topmost roof the banner of England blew;’ but that proud banner has now, at last, been blown away by Cossack colonels from the topmost roof of all—the ‘Roof of the World’ itself, thus enabling Russia to overpeer our very Indian plains, and thence despatch her Calebs and her Joshuas to spy out this other land of promise.

It may be quite true—and, indeed, from all we know of the character of the Czar, we think it is quite true—that Alexander III. has a holy horror of war, into which he is determined not to plunge his people; and we have been assured by the greatest master of modern war, the late Count Moltke, that the period of dynastic conflicts, or struggles resulting from the personal passions and petulance of rulers, has come to an end, and been succeeded by wars between peoples and nations. This is also quite true; but it is precisely herein that the greatest danger lurks. For a ruler—as witness the case of the present Czar’s own father—may prove too weak to restrain or deflect the set of the popular tide, and he plunged into a war against his own will. It is also conceivable that the French Government might find it impossible to resist the clamours of the Chamber to embrace the first opportunity—and what could be a better one than a general European conflagration? for ousting the English from Egypt—an object which all good Frenchmen deeply have at heart. But it is on the Balkan Peninsula, where there are no rulers or restraining influences to speak of, that popular passions and aspirations must enjoy most unbridled sway; and therefore it is that we look with anxiety for the further development of this tragic event at Samakoff, which has already thrown the Balkan countries into a state of wild excitement, and all Europe into a fit of ever-increasing alarm.

(_By Telegraph from our Special Correspondent, Mr. Francis Scudamore._)

PHILIPPOPOLIS, _April 4_.