CHAPTER VIII

POSSIBILITIES AND PROBABILITIES

The various possible courses open to Admiral Count von Spee, both before and after Coronel, have already been discussed, but the movements of his squadron have not been subjected to examination in the light that they bear on the policy which he adopted, nor have the results of that action been considered from his point of view.

The German squadron sailed from Mas-a-Fuera on October 27th, and three days later arrived about noon at a position some fifty miles to the westward of Valparaiso, where it remained for upwards of twenty-four hours. On October 31st--the same day that the _Glasgow_ went into Coronel with telegrams and the day before that action was fought--the squadron steamed off south, leaving the _Nürnberg_ to wait off Valparaiso for a few hours and probably to get information of importance. The German Admiral undoubtedly went to the neighbourhood of Valparaiso with the express intention of obtaining news and was in communication with the shore, for he begins his official report on the action fought off Coronel by saying that his three light cruisers reached on November 1st a point about twenty "sea miles from the Chilean coast, in order to attack a British cruiser (_Glasgow_), which, according to trustworthy information, had reached the locality on the previous evening."

It is, of course, impossible to know what were von Spee's intentions at this moment; they can only be surmised from a general survey of the situation and the means that he had of obtaining information. The latter was acquired by an organised system, for there were German agents in every South American port. It may be taken as certain that any ship calling at or passing Punta Arenas (Magellan Straits) would be reported to him, and that the names of the ships and certain of their movements on the south-east coast would also be known to him.

Easter Island--which was von Spee's original base--is approximately 2,300 miles from Valparaiso, and therefore out of range of wireless communication, although it is possible he might occasionally be able to take in a message under favourable conditions. However, it is known from an officer survivor of the _Gneisenau_ that on October 19th the German Admiral received a message--possibly through a German supply ship--stating that a British Squadron consisting of "_Good Hope_, _Monmouth_, and _Glasgow_ was to the south." Now we know that this squadron was at Punta Arenas on September 28th, and leaving on that date was employed searching inlets and bays round Tierra del Fuego for some days. The _Good Hope_ then returned to the Falklands, finally leaving them on October 22nd, whilst the others went on to the coast of Chile and were there from October 11th onwards, making use of a sequestered spot as a base. The _Glasgow_ was at Coronel on October 14th and at Valparaiso the day following, so the fact of a British Squadron being "south" was well known, though the information did not reach von Spee till the 19th.

On receiving this news von Spee sailed immediately. He knew he was in superior force to Cradock's squadron, and the presumption is that he went over to prospect and, if possible, to force an action. He went straight to Mas-a-Fuera, only remained two days to coal, and then on to a position off Valparaiso to pick up further information.

Immediately on hearing that the _Glasgow_ was at Coronel on the 31st, he proceeded south to cut her off, and, as was likely to be the case, to meet Cradock. He must have judged that the rest of the squadron could not be far behind the _Glasgow_. The probability was that he received information of the _Good Hope_ passing through the Straits about the 24th or 25th, and he might also have heard of the _Canopus_ doing so a day or two later, in which case he would have calculated that the latter could scarcely be so far north by this time.

There is no indication that by this date von Spee had made up his mind to quit the South Pacific. He had hardly had time to make his arrangements for so doing, and there is no doubt that they were not then completed.

Von Spee was at his full strength, having recently added the _Dresden_ and _Leipzig_ to the squadron while at Easter Island, he possessed the advantage of homogeneity, and his squadron was far more modern. The result we know, our ships were out-gunned and completely outclassed. Fate played right into the hands of von Spee on this occasion.

It was undoubtedly a severe blow to British prestige in these parts, and the Germans in all the large towns were not slow in making the most of this temporary success in order to advance their own interests. The rumours that were circulated caused no little perturbation amongst the neutral shipping agents, who feared that von Spee would lose no time in attacking British trade, and that those cargoes which were consigned to Great Britain would be in jeopardy. Insurance rates rose with a bound, and it is said that the Germans went about openly deriding the British and causing the most fantastic articles to be inserted in the local Press. The exaggerated reports that were published, both of the action and of its effects, certainly lends colour to this source of information.

It will be interesting to consider what von Spee would have done if he had missed Admiral Cradock and the action off Coronel had not been fought. In view of his superior speed, von Spee would in all probability have continued on his southerly course and rounded Cape Horn, leaving Admiral Cradock behind him. There seem to be grounds for supposing that he might go to the Cape of Good Hope, but the campaign in German South West Africa could scarcely be said to be progressing favourably for the Germans, and it is not unreasonable to suppose he would have preferred to go north along the eastern side of South America to harass our trade. It is legitimate to suppose that in this case he would not have delayed to attack the Falkland Islands, with Cradock's squadron on his heels and Stoddart's ships converging on him from the north; in fact, it would have been suicidal, for the wireless station there would have given our ships warning of his approach, and the delay might have enabled our two forces to unite. From Stoddart's squadron alone he had nothing to fear, and most likely would have welcomed an opportunity of bringing it to action. The presence of the _Defence_ at Montevideo would certainly have been known to him at that time, and he would probably have hoped to intercept her before she joined Cradock. Had all this come to pass, the Germans might then have separated, and when it was found that the theatre of operations in the South Atlantic became too hot for them, they might have endeavoured to make their way home after doing as much damage as possible to our commerce.

As events turned out, however, von Spee waited about at sea for a day or two after the action, apparently in the hope of either hearing news of the _Good Hope_ or finding her. Writing at sea on November 2nd, he says, in a letter that afterwards appeared in the German Press: "If _Good Hope_ escaped, she must, in my opinion, make for a Chilean port on account of her damages. To make sure of this, I intend going to Valparaiso to-morrow with _Gneisenau_ and _Nürnberg_, and to see whether _Good Hope_ could not be disarmed by the Chileans." Writing under date of November 5th, he adds: "We arrived at Valparaiso this morning.... The news of our victory had not yet reached here, but spread very quickly." The squadron split up, it seems, arriving at different dates at Mas-a-Fuera, which became the temporary headquarters of the German squadron for the next fortnight. Here all ships coaled in turn. Communication was maintained by sending the German light cruisers into Valparaiso one after the other to get the latest information. The _Leipzig_ was there somewhere about November 13th. This would show a proper caution on his part, as belligerent vessels cannot use neutral ports except at extended intervals.

At Valparaiso von Spee must have obtained information concerning the movements of our squadron under Admiral Stoddart, who had then just sailed north from Montevideo. He would also have probably been aware of the presence of the Japanese squadron operating in the Northern Pacific.

In order to make the position clear, it must be apprehended that a squadron consisting of the British light cruiser _Newcastle_, together with the Japanese cruiser _Idzuma_, and the small battleship _Hizen_, was concentrated in the North Pacific. The battle-cruiser _Australia_ left Suva, Fiji, on November 8th to strengthen this squadron, so that it may be deduced that this was a direct result of the Coronel action which took place just a week before. She joined these ships on November 26th at Chamela Bay on the west coast of Mexico. The object of this squadron was to prevent von Spee from coming north, and to close on him should he remain on the western coast of South America. Sailing southwards, these ships visited the Galapagos Islands and then proceeded on their quest for the enemy, the _Newcastle_ searching the Cocos Islands _en route_. When nearing the coast of Colombia, the splendid news of the Falkland Islands battle was received, after which these ships split up and separated.

In view of these various courses of action open to von Spee, the reader will appreciate how our minds were occupied with the question of his future movements. Would he, in the hope of adding further to his laurels, attempt to repeat his success by going into the North Pacific to engage the Allied squadron there, which might have been inferior to him in strength? Or would he go south and follow up his advantage in a direction where there was nothing to oppose him for the moment, except the _Canopus_ and _Glasgow_? He could not hope successfully to combat all the different squadrons looking for him, nor, for that matter, did he wish to risk his ships, for there were no others to replace them. It was not his rôle to adopt such an offensive. He therefore chose to give the impression that he was remaining off Chile, and then suddenly vanished into complete oblivion. Leaving no trace of his movements, he was careful to forgo using all wireless; and, having completed arrangements as to future supplies, he determined to appear suddenly where he was least expected. History repeats itself, and he evidently decided that the boldest plan was what would be least anticipated, and therefore most likely to be productive of success.

Taking another point of view, it was obviously to von Spee's advantage to hasten round to the east coast of South America as quickly as possible after the action off Coronel took place, and thus to reap the full benefit of the success that he had already gained. He could not possibly have shut his eyes to the fact that the immediate following up of his victory was the most promising policy for any scheme of operations in the South Atlantic. He would then have been able to strike before reinforcements could come out from England, which he must have been aware would be sent out to hunt him down. Why, then, did he delay a whole month? On his own showing the repairs necessary to render his ships fit for further service only took a few days, and it would not take long to arrange for his future supplies on the east coast of South America with all the German shipping cooped up in this part of the world waiting to be put to any useful purpose. Is it, therefore, unreasonable to suppose that he waited in order to collect German reservists from Chile, either to garrison the Falkland Islands once they had been captured, or to take or escort them home to Germany? He knew that he was really superior to the force under Admiral Stoddart, yet he delayed leaving till November 26th, a period of nearly four weeks. The inference of which is that he was not ready, and further that a seizure of the Falkland Islands was deliberately contemplated and prepared for, and was to be his first step. An additional possible explanation lies in the deduction that he could not have estimated that he would have defeated Cradock so completely, and therefore took time to consider the altered situation before committing himself to a definite move, hoping in the interval to get more information which might lead to a further stroke of good fortune. The threat of the _Australia_ and the Japanese squadron to the north was not sufficiently pronounced to force him to hurry.

We have seen that it was almost out of the question for von Spee to maintain his ships in the Northern Pacific, but the conditions were entirely different on the west coast of South America. Here there were a number of uninhabited anchorages where he could shelter, and he had a large German population to help him on the coast of Chile. In fact, he did maintain himself here until he knew that hostile forces were concentrating and would move south to drive him out. Meanwhile, he had effected repairs to his ships, and had completed arrangements in advance for the supplies of his ships on the east coast of South America. Thus the conclusion appeared to be that there was no alternative open to von Spee but to leave the Pacific, where he had already shot his bolt.

Whatever the true explanation of his policy may be, the movements of his squadron point to his having been quite at a loss what to do next. His position was so hazardous and uncertain, so full of future difficulties, that he could not see his way clear for any length of time in order to work out any concerted plan. He was a fugitive pure and simple, and felt that whatever he did was in the nature of a venture.

It was not till Cradock was defeated that he appears to have formulated his plan for attacking the Falkland Islands. He then seems to have been carried away by the effect that the temporary capture of a British colony and the hoisting of the German flag would have on our prestige throughout the world. He would have destroyed the wireless station, seized the coal and provisions lying there, and would then have had to abandon the colony to subsequent recapture. Had he originally contemplated such a dramatic coup, he would never have delayed a moment longer than was necessary.

Keeping well away from the usual trade routes, the German ships sailed south, and on the way were lucky enough to meet the _North Wales_, one of Cradock's colliers. They arrived at San Quintin Sound on November 21st, coaled, and stayed five days. Thence von Spee kept out for 200 miles from the land before turning south, and got into very rough weather.

An officer in the _Gneisenau_ states:

"_November 27th_--Force of wind up to 12. Later the weather moderated a little so that we could proceed at 8 knots.

"_November 29th_--Impossible to lay the tables. Broken up furniture thrown overboard. All crockery was smashed. Impossible to be on deck. Necessary to secure oneself with ropes. We are about off the entrance to the Magellan Straits.

"_December 2nd_--Sighted two icebergs, appear to be 50 metres high.

"_December 3rd_--We are lying at the eastern exit of the Beagle Channel close to Picton Island.

"_December 6th_--We are going to Port Stanley."

In judging von Spee's motives, it is as well to bear in mind that he attained no success whatsoever after Coronel except for the capture of two sailing ships and a collier. That our squadron under Admiral Sturdee, having only arrived the day previously, met him on his arrival off Port Stanley, was the turn of Fortune's wheel in our favour.

As all the world now knows, the battle of Coronel, the greatest naval disaster that had befallen our arms in the war, was to be avenged five weeks afterwards, when the German squadron in its turn drank to the dregs the bitter cup of despair.