Part 12

I believe it will be found on careful inquiry that the change for which forty years ago men sought a cause in vain, and for which at present they assign a perfectly inadequate cause, has had no real existence. The study of meteorological records gives no valid support to the theory of change. Nor is it difficult to understand how the idea that there has been a change has arisen from the changed conditions under which men in middle life, as compared with children, observe or feel the effects of milder weather. A child gives no heed to mild winters. They pass, like ordinary spring or autumn days, unnoted and unremembered. But a bitter winter, or even a spell of bitter weather such as is felt almost every year, is remembered. Even though it lasts but for a short time, it produces as much effect on the childish imagination as a long and bitter winter produces on the minds of grown folk. Looking back at the days of childhood, the middle-aged man or woman recalls what seems like a series of bitter winters, because recalling many occasions when, during what seemed a long time, the snow lay deep, the waters were frozen, and the outdoor air was shrewd and biting.

Before considering some of the remarkable winters which during the last century have been experienced in Great Britain and in Europe generally, I would discuss briefly the evidence on which I base the belief that the winter weather of Europe, and of Great Britain especially, has undergone no noteworthy change during the last century.

If there is any validity in the theory at present in vogue that our winters are milder now than they were forty or fifty years ago, and the theory in vogue as we have seen forty years ago that the winters then were milder than they had been forty or fifty years earlier, it is manifest that there ought to be a very remarkable contrast between our present winter weather and that which was commonly experienced eighty or ninety years since. Now, it so chances that we possess a record of the weather from 1768 to 1792, by a very competent observer--Gilbert White of Selborne--which serves to show what weather prevailed generally during that interval; while the same writer has described at length, in his own happy and effective manner, some of the winters which were specially remarkable for severity. Let us see whether the winters during the last third of the eighteenth century were so much more bitter or long-lasting than those now experienced as common ideas on the subject would suggest.

In 1768, the year began with a fortnight's frost and snow. The cold was very severe, as will presently be more particularly noted. Thereafter wet and rainy weather prevailed to the end of February. The winter of 1768-69 was marked throughout by alternations of rain and frost; thus from the middle of November to the end of 1768 there were 'alternate rains and frosts;' in January and February, 1769, the weather was 'frosty and rainy, with gleams of fine weather in the intervals; then to the middle of March, wind and rain.' The last half of November, 1769, was dry and frosty, December windy, with rain and intervals of frost, and the first fortnight very foggy; the first fortnight of January, 1770, frosty, but on the 14th and 15th all the snow melted and to the end of February mild hazy weather prevailed; March was frosty and bright. From the middle of October, 1770, to the end of the year, there were almost incessant rains; then severe frosts till the last week of January, 1771, after which rain and snow prevailed for a fortnight, followed by spring weather till the end of February. March and April were frosty. The spring of 1771 was so exceptionally severe in the Isle of Skye that it was called the Black Spring; in the south also it was severe. November, 1771, frost with intervals of fog and rain; December, mild and bright weather with hoar frosts; January and the first week of February, 1772, frost and snow; thence to the end of the first fortnight in March, frost, sleet, rain, and snow.

The winter of 1772-73 would fairly compare with the mildest in recent years, except for one fortnight of hard frost in February, 1773. For from the end of September to December 22 there were rain and mild weather--the first ice on December 23--but thence to the end of the month foggy weather. The first week in January, frost, but the rest of the month dark rainy weather; and after the fortnight of hard frost in February, misty showery weather to the end of the first week in March, and bright spring days till April.

There were four weeks of frost after the end of the first fortnight in November, 1773, then rain to the end of the year, and rain and frost alternately to the middle of March, 1774.

In 1774-1775 there seems to have been no winter at all worth mentioning. From August 24 to the end of the third week in November there was rain, with frequent intervals of sunny weather. Then to the end of December, dark dripping fogs. January, February, and the first half of March, 1775, rain almost every day; and to the end of the first week in April, cold winds, with showers of rain and snow.

The end of the year 1775 was rainy, with intervals of hoar frost and sunshine. Dark frosty weather prevailed during the first three weeks of January, 1776, with much snow. Afterwards foggy weather and hoar frost. The cold of January, 1776, was remarkable, and will presently be more fully described.

November and December, 1776, were dry and frosty, with some days of hard rain. Then to January 10, 1777, hard frost; to the 20th foggy with frequent showers; and to February 18, hard dry frost with snow, followed by heavy rains, with intervals of warm dry spring weather to the end of May.

The winter of 1777-78 was another which resembled closely enough those winters which many suppose to be peculiar to recent years. The autumn weather to October 12 had been remarkably fine and warm. From then to the end of the year, grey mild weather prevailed, with but little rain and still less frost. During the first thirteen days of January there was frost with a little snow; then rain to January 24, followed by six days of hard frost. After this, harsh foggy weather with rain prevailed till February 23; then five days of frost; a fortnight of dark harsh weather; and spring weather to the end of the first fortnight in April. The second fortnight of April, however, was cold, with snow and frost.

Similarly varied in character was the winter of 1778-79. From the end of September, 1778, to the end of the year the weather was wet, with considerable intervals of sunshine. January, 1779, was characterised by alternations of frost and showers. After this, to April 21, warm dry weather prevailed.

The winter of 1779-80 was rather more severe. During October and November the weather was fine with intervals of rain. December rainy, with frost and snow occasionally. January 1780, frosty. During February dark harsh weather prevailed, with frequent intervals of frost. March was characterised by warm, showery, spring weather.

November and December, 1781, were warm and rainy; and the same mild open weather prevailed till February 4. Then followed eighteen days of hard frost, after which to the end of March the weather was cold and windy, with frost, snow, and rain. Thus the first two-thirds of the winter of 1781-82 were exceptionally mild, while the last third was cold and bleak.

In November, 1782, we find for the first time in these records an instance of early and long-continued cold. 'November began with a hard frost, and continued throughout, with alternate frost and thaw. The first part of December frosty.' The latter half of December, however, and the first sixteen days of January were mild, with much rain and wind. Then came a week of hard frost, followed by stormy dripping weather to the end of February. Thence to May 9, cold harsh winds prevailed. On May 5 there was thick ice.

The next two winters were, on the whole, the severest of the entire series recorded by Gilbert White, though at no time in the winter of 1783-84 was the cold greater than has often been experienced in this country. White's record runs thus: From September 23 to November 12, dry mild weather. To December 18, grey soft weather with a few showers. Thence to February 19, 1784, hard frost, with two thaws, one on January 14, the other on February 5. To February 28, mild wet fogs. To March 3, frost with ice. To March 10, sleet and snow. To April 2, snow with hard frost.

The winter of 1784-85 was remarkable for the exceedingly severe cold of December, 1784, which will presently be referred to more particularly. From November 6 to the end of the year 1784, fog, rain, and hard frost alternated, the frost continuing longest and being severest in December. On January 2 a thaw began, and rainy weather with wind continued to January 28. Thence to March 15 hard frost; to March 21 mild weather with sprinkling showers; to April 7 hard frost.

After rainy weather till December 23, 1786, came frost and snow till January 7, 1787. Then a week of mild and very rainy weather, followed by a week of heavy snow. From January 21 to February 11, mild weather with frequent rains; to February 21 dry weather with high winds; and to March 10, hard frost. Then alternate rains and frosts to April 13.

Early in November, 1786, there was frost, but thence to December 16 rain with only 'a few detached days of frost.' After a fortnight of frost and snow, came 24 days of dark, moist, mild weather. Then four days (from January 24 to January 28, 1787) of frost and snow; after which mild showery weather to February 16, dry cool weather to February 28, stormy and rainy weather to March 10. The next fortnight bright and frosty; then mild rainy weather to the end of April.

November, 1787, was mild till the 23rd, the last week frosty. The first three weeks of December still and mild, with rain, the last week frosty. The first thirteen days of January mild and wet; then five days of frost, followed by dry, windy weather. February frosty, but with frequent showers. The first half of March hard frost, the rest dark harsh weather with much rain.

The winter of 1788-89 was very severe, hard frost continuing from November 22, 1788, to January 13, 1789. The rest of January was mild with showers. February rainy, with snow showers and heavy gales of wind. The first thirteen days of March hard frost, with snow, and then till April 18, heavy rain, with frost, snow, and sleet. This winter was very severe also on the Continent.

The winter of 1789-90 was as mild as that of 1788-89 had been severe. The record runs thus:--'November to 17th, heavy rains with violent gales of wind. To December 18, mild dry weather with a few showers. To the end of the year rain and wind. To January 16, 1790, mild foggy weather, with occasional rains. To January 21' (five days only) 'frost. To January 28, dark, with driving rains. To February 14, mild dry weather. To February 22' (eight days) 'hard frost.' To April 5 bright cold weather with a few showers.

In November, 1790, mild autumnal weather prevailed till the 26th, after which there were five days of hard frost. Thence to the end of the year, rain and snow, with a few days of frost. The whole of January, 1791, was mild with heavy rains; February windy, with much rain and snow. Then to the end of April dry, but 'rather cold and frosty.'

November, 1791, was very wet and stormy, December frosty. There was some hard frost in January, 1792, but the weather mostly wet and mild. In February also there was some hard frost and a little snow. March was wet and cold.

The record ends with the year 1792, the last three months of which are thus described: 'October showery and mild. November dry and fine. December mild.'

Certainly the account of the 23 years between 1768 and 1792 does not suggest that there is any material difference between the winter weather now common and the average winter weather a century ago. Still it may be necessary to show, that when men spoke of mild weather in old times, they meant what we should understand by the same expression. A reference to rain or showery weather shows sufficiently that a temperature above the freezing point existed while such weather prevailed. But it might be that what White speaks of as mild weather, is such as we should consider severe. In order to show that this is not the case, it will suffice to examine his statement respecting the actual temperature in particular winters, considering them always with due reference to what he says as to their exceptional character.

Take for instance his account of the frost in January, 1768. He says that, for the short time it lasted, this frost 'was the most severe that we had then known for many years, and was remarkably injurious to evergreens.' 'The coincidents attending this short but intense frost,' he proceeds, after describing his vegetable losses, 'were, that the horses fell sick with an epidemic distemper, which injured the winds of many and killed some; that colds and coughs were general among the human species; that it froze under people's beds for several nights; that meat was so hard frozen that it could not be spitted, and could not be secured but in cellars, &c.' On the 3rd of January a thermometer within doors, in a close parlour, where there was no fire, fell in the night to 20; on the 4th to 18; and on the 7th to 17-1/2 degrees, 'a degree of cold which the owner never since saw in the same situation.' The evidence from the thermometer is unsatisfactory, because we do not know how the parlour was situated. But there is reason for supposing that in the bitterest winters known during the last thirty or forty years, a greater degree of cold than that of January, 1768, has been experienced in England.

The frost of January, 1776, was also regarded as remarkable, and an account of it will therefore enable us to judge what was the ordinary winter weather of the last century.

In the first place, White notices that 'the first week of January, 1776, was very wet, and drowned with vast rains from every quarter; from whence may be inferred, as there is great reason to believe is the case, that intense frosts seldom take place till the earth is perfectly glutted and chilled with water; and hence dry autumns are seldom followed by rigorous winters.' On the 14th, after a week of frost, sleet, and snow, which after the 12th 'overwhelmed all the works of men, drifting over the tops of gates, and filling the hollow lanes,' White had occasion to be much abroad. He thought he had never before or since encountered such rugged Siberian weather. 'Many of the narrow roads were now filled above the tops of the hedges, through which the snow was driven into most romantic and grotesque shapes, so striking to the imagination as not to be seen without wonder and pleasure. The poultry dared not to stir out of their roosting places: for cocks and hens are so dazzled and confounded by the glare of snow, that they would soon perish without assistance. The hares also lay sullenly in their seats, and would not move till compelled by hunger: being conscious, poor animals, that the drifts and heaps treacherously betray their footsteps and prove fatal to many of them.' From the 14th the snow continued to increase, and began to stop the road-wagons and coaches, which could no longer keep their regular stages; and especially on the Western roads. 'The company at Bath that wanted to attend the Queen's birthday were strangely incommoded; many carriages of persons who got on their way to town from Bath, as far as Marlborough, after strange embarrassments, here met with a _ne plus ultra_. The ladies fretted, and offered large rewards to labourers, if they would shovel them a road to London; but the relentless heaps of snow were too bulky to be removed; and so the 18th passed over, leaving the company in very uncomfortable circumstances, at the Castle and other inns.'

Yet all this time and till the 21st the cold was not so intense as it was in December 1878. On the 21st the thermometer showed 20 degrees, and had it not been for the deep snows, the winter would not have been very severely felt. On the 22nd, the author had occasion to go to London 'through a sort of Laplandian scene, very wild and grotesque indeed.' But London exhibited an even stranger appearance than the country. 'Being bedded deep in snow, the pavement of the streets could not be touched by the wheels or the horses' feet, so that the carriages ran almost without the least noise.' 'Such an exemption from din and clatter,' says White, 'was strange but not pleasant; it seemed to convey an uncomfortable idea of desolation:

_Ipsa silentia terrent._

'The worst had not yet, however, been reached. On the 27th much snow fell all day, and in the evening the frost became very intense. At South Lambeth, for the four following nights, the thermometer fell to eleven, seven, six, six; and at Selborne to seven, six, ten; and on the 31st, just before sunrise, with rime on the trees and on the tube of the glass, the quicksilver sank exactly to zero--_a most unusual degree of cold this for the South of England_.' During these four nights, the cold was so penetrating that ice formed under beds; and in the day the wind was so keen, that persons of robust constitutions could hardly endure to face it. 'The Thames was at once frozen over, both above and below bridge, that crowds ran about on the ice. The streets were now strangely encumbered with snow, which crumbled and trod dusty; and turning gray, resembled bay salt; what had fallen on the roofs was so perfectly dry that from first to last it lay twenty-six days on the houses in the city; _a longer time than had been remembered by the oldest housekeepers living_.'

According to all appearances rigorous weather might now have been expected for weeks to come, since every night increased in severity. 'But behold,' says White, 'without any apparent cause, on February 1, a thaw took place, and some rain followed before night, making good the observation that frosts often go off as it were at once without any gradual declension of cold. On February 2 the thaw persisted, and on the 3rd swarms of little insects were frisking and sporting in a court-yard at South Lambeth, as if they had felt no frost. Why the juices in the small bodies and smaller limbs of such minute beings are not frozen, is a matter of curious inquiry.'

Although it is manifest that the weather of January, 1776, was severe, yet the remarks italicised show that such weather was regarded a century ago as altogether exceptional. Again, the cold lasted only about three weeks. And it may be doubted whether in actual intensity it even equalled that which was experienced in London and the south of England generally during the first week of 1855. Certainly the evidence afforded by such remarks as I have italicised in the above-quoted passage tends more to prove that winter weather in England a hundred years hence was on the average much like winter at present, than the unusual severity of the weather during about twenty-four days in January, 1776, tends to suggest that a marked change has taken place.

Similar evidence is afforded by White's remarks respecting the severe cold of December, 1784.

As in January, 1776, so in December, 1784--a week of very wet weather heralded the approach of severe cold. 'The first week of December,' says White, 'was very wet, with the barometer very low. On the 7th, with the barometer at 28.5, came on a vast snow, which continued all that day and the next, and most part of the following night: so that by the morning of the 9th the works of men were quite overwhelmed' (there is something quite Homeric in White's use of this favourite expression), 'the lanes filled so as to be impassable, and the ground covered twelve or fifteen inches without any drifting. In the evening of the 9th the air began to be so very sharp that we thought it would be curious to attend to the motions of a thermometer; we therefore hung out two, one made by Martin and one by Dolland' (probably Dollond), 'which soon began to show us what we were to expect; for by ten o'clock they fell to twenty-one, and at eleven to four, when we went to bed. On the 10th in the morning the quicksilver of Dolland's glass was down to half a degree below zero and that of Martin's, which was absurdly graduated only to four degrees above zero, sunk quite into the brass guard of the ball, so that, when the weather became most interesting, this was useless. On the 10th, at eleven at night, though the air was perfectly still, Dolland's glass went down to one degree below zero! This strange severity of the weather made me very desirous to know what degree of cold there might be in such an exalted and near situation as Newton. We had, therefore, on the morning of the 10th, written to Mr. ----, and entreated him to hang out his thermometer, made by Adams, and to pay some attention to it, morning and evening, expecting wonderful phenomena in so elevated a region, at two hundred feet or more above my house. But, behold! on the 10th, at eleven at night, it was down only to seventeen, and the next morning at twenty-two, when mine was at ten! We were so disturbed at this unexpected reverse of comparative cold that we sent one of my glasses up, thinking that of Mr. ---- must somehow be wrongly constructed. But when the instruments came to be confronted they went exactly together, so that for one night at least the cold at Newton was eighteen degrees less than at Selborne, and through the whole frost ten or twelve degrees; and indeed, when we came to observe consequences, we could readily credit this, for all my laurustines, bays, ilexes, arbutuses, cypresses, and even my Portugal laurels--and, which occasions more regret, my fine sloping laurel hedge--were scorched up, while at Newton the same trees have not lost a leaf....' One circumstance noted by White, though not bearing specially on the degree of cold which prevailed on this occasion, is very interesting. 'I must not omit to tell you,' says White, 'that during those two Siberian days my parlour cat was so electric that had a person stroked her and been properly insulated, the shock might have been given to a whole circle of people.'