Part 2

(_d_) _Comparison of Figures received from Post Office and other Sources._

It will have been noted from the Table of Retail Prices given above that on the whole there is comparatively little difference between the sets of figures compiled by the Post Office officials and those compiled by the Ministry of Labour and Local Government Board officials, though the Post Office figures tend to give a somewhat higher average increase of prices. This is brought out by the following table of the ratios of retail prices for the main groups of commodities for the three dates:--

+-----------------+------------------+----------------- | Mid-July, 1914. | Mid-March, 1922. | Mid-June, 1922. ---------------+--------+--------+---------+--------+--------+-------- | A | B | A | B | A | B Food | 52·4 | 54·6 | 104·8 | 102·8 | 100 | 100 Clothing | 52·7 | 52·9 | 103·9 | 101·7 | 100 | 100 Rent (C) | 78·9 | 78·9 | 100·4 | 100·4 | 100 | 100 Fuel and Light | 46·6 | 48·1 | 104·8 | 104·4 | 100 | 100 Sundries | 50·5 | 51·9 | 103·2 | 103·1 | 100 | 100 ---------------+--------+--------+---------+--------+--------+--------

The figures A result from the returns from the Post Office.

The figures B result from the returns from other Departments.

The figures C were obtained from only one Department--the Local Government Board.

(In case the meaning of this table is not at once clear, it may be explained that the first line, for instance, means that for 100s. expended on food by the wage-earning households in June, 1922, exactly the same quantities and exactly the same foods could, according to the Post Office officials' returns, be purchased in March, 1922, for 104.8s., and in July, 1914, for 52.4s. and according to the other returns for 102.8s. and 54.6s. respectively; and so on with the other items).

The near agreement of these figures is a strong proof of their essential accuracy. We ultimately decided to take the average between the two sets of figures as representing the nearest approach to the truth at which we could arrive.

(B) The Collection of Household Budgets.

(1) _Representative Budgets._

The second stage of our enquiry was to obtain representative household budgets, from which to compile the "weights" by which the individual price changes might be combined into a single final figure.

For this purpose a special Form was drafted (Form B6, a copy of which appears in the Appendix) and some 5,000 of these forms were despatched to National School teachers in every school in the country, accompanied by detailed instructions (of which there is a copy in the Appendix) of the method in which they were to be completed.

Notwithstanding the difficulties of the time when these budgets were called for, and the fact that a number of forms were held up and perhaps lost in the post, we were able to use 308 completed budgets of wage-earning households, received from 112 towns. This number was quite sufficient for our purpose. These budgets were excellently filled in, and, apart from the fact that such a number is in itself a fair guarantee of the statistical results obtained, we are satisfied for reasons given below of the substantial accuracy of the budgets.

(2) _Wide Scope of Budgets._

The budgets received were from a very varied class of households, and as will be seen from the following list, embraced the principal industrial occupations. Labourers, Fishermen, Messengers, Servants, Pilots, Barmen, Carpenters, Boatmen, Building Contractors, Motor Boat Drivers, Plasterers, Ship Inspector, Stone Masons, Marine Engineer, Bricklayer, Mill-hands, Yachtman, Caretakers, Tailors, Post Office Workers, Housekeepers, Tailoresses, Gardeners, Herds, Dress-makers, Shop Assistants, Farm Stewards, Shoemakers, Charwomen, Dairyman, Cottage Industries, Laundresses, Egg Packer, Milliners, Washerwomen, Fowl Plucker, Shirtmaker, Hairdresser, Wool Sorter, Spinners, Smiths, Woodcutters, Embroidery Workers, Fitters, Sawyers, Hosiers, Boiler-makers, Wood-turners, Stitchers, Engineers, Body-makers, Knitters, Plumbers, Golf Caddies, Lace-makers, Machinists, Pointers, Road Engine Drivers, Crane-driver, Paper Maker, Motor Mechanics, Collier, Sextons, Car Drivers, Brass-finisher, Butchers, Carters, Bakers, Dealer, Chauffeur, Millers, Electrician, Tram Driver, Confectioner, Watchmaker, Railway Workers, Painters and Saddlers, etc.

(3) _Compilation of Budgets._

Two methods of compiling the budgets were followed:--A simple addition was made of the particulars of the expenditure on each item separately recorded on each of the budgets. These particulars consisted of the expenditure on food, sundries, and rent for one week in June, 1922; the particulars of yearly expenditure on items of clothing, fuel and light were reduced to a weekly average by dividing by 52, before adding. The resulting totals gave the present average weekly expenditure on each article, and consequently the _proportion_ which the expenditure on each article bears to the total expenditure of the average wage-earning household.

A more complex method of compilation was also adopted which should lead to an even more accurate result.

It was found by analysis of the Census figures that the proportion of children under 14 to adults (persons over 14) is approximately as 2 to 5, and an adjustment was made to bring the budgets into conformity with this proportion in order that they might truly represent the actual proportions of the population of the country, the assumption being that the percentage rise in the price of articles mainly consumed by children might be higher or lower than the rise in the prices of articles mainly consumed by persons over 14.

The budgets were accordingly classified into three groups, viz.:--"S" or simple households, consisting of not more than two persons over 14 years, and with one or more children under 14 years; "C" or complex households, consisting of more than two persons over 14 years, and with one or more children under 14 years; and "A" or adult households, in which there were not any persons under 14 years.

It was necessary to multiply the "A" group by 3, in order to bring the proportionate number of adults and children in the budgets with which we were dealing into conformity with the national proportion (5 to 2). The figures for the three groups having been totalled separately, those obtained for the "A" group were weighted accordingly.

It was found, however, that the difference between the "weights" obtained by the first and by the second methods were so small as to be quite negligible, as is shown by the following tables:--

PERCENTAGE INCREASES FROM JULY, 1914, TO MARCH, 1922, AS SHOWN BY THE APPLICATION OF POST OFFICE PRICES.[A]

+-------+-----------+-------+--------+-----------+--------- | | | | Fuel | | Total Budget | Food. | Clothing. | Rent. | and | Sundries. | for all Grouping. | | | | Light. | | Items. ----------+-------+-----------+-------+--------+-----------+--------- S+C+A | 99.8 | 97.1 | 27.3 | 120.6 | 104.2 | 95.5 S+C+3A | 99.9 | 97.3 | 27.3 | 124.9 | 104.1 | 95.7 ----------+-------+-----------+-------+--------+-----------+---------

PERCENTAGE INCREASES FROM JULY, 1914, TO MARCH, 1922, AS SHOWN BY THE APPLICATION OF MINISTRY OF LABOUR AND MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT PRICES.

+-------+-----------+----------+--------+-----------+--------- | | | | Fuel | | Total Budget | Food. | Clothing. | Rent.[A] | and | Sundries. | for all Grouping. | | | | Light. | | Items. ----------+-------+-----------+----------+--------+-----------+--------- S+C+A | 88.2 | 91.4 | 27.3 | 116.8 | 97.0 | 86.9 S+C+3A | 88.3 | 92.0 | 27.3 | 117.2 | 96.9 | 87.0 ----------+-------+-----------+----------+--------+-----------+--------- [A: Figures obtained for Local Government Board only.]

It may be mentioned here that if weights are obtained for the "S" group of households only, _i.e._, for an average of two adults, and 3.5 children, the final increase in the cost of living figures would be 91.2 for March, 1922, and 84.6 for June, 1922, _i.e._, practically identical with the figures obtained by "weighting" in accordance with all the budgets.

(4) _Table of Weights._

The following Table shows the actual Irish "weights," representing the proportionate expenditure by the average wage-earning household on the various commodities, as compiled from the budgets received.

The actual Irish weights or proportions of expenditure on each item are as follow:--

+------------------------------------ Total expenditure 100 | Food 57.05 -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ Beef 5.18 | Flour 3.70 Mutton 2.94 | Oatmeal, etc .97 Fresh Pork .63 | Rice, Sago, etc. .45 Sausages, Black Puddings, etc. .82 | Potatoes 3.16 Bacon, Pigs' Heads, etc. 5.23 | Other Vegetables 1.33 Fresh Fish .61 | Tea 3.80 Cured or Tinned Fish .16 | Sugar 3.24 Butter 6.91 | Jam 1.12 Cheese .26 | Other Food .95 Margarine .18 | Meals eaten at Shops, Lard .25 | Hotels, etc. .70 Fresh Milk 4.56 | Condensed Milk .09 | Eggs 3.44 | Total Food 57.05 Bread 6.37 | -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ CLOTHING 17.48 -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ _Women's_:-- _Girl's_ (over 6):-- Coats .69 | Hats .37 | Coats .50 Costumes 1.09 | Hats .23 Blouses, etc. .39 | Dresses .69 Skirts .21 | Stockings .20 Stockings .24 | Combinations .13 Combinations .15 | Stays .11 Corsets .19 | Petticoats .15 Underskirts .18 | Chemises .13 Chemises .19 | Boots and Shoes .71 Boots and Shoes .92 | Other Clothing .19 Other Clothing .27 | -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ _Men's_:-- _Boy's_ (over 6):-- Overcoats .83 | Overcoats .27 Suits 2.60 | Suits .83 Hats .38 | Caps .07 Singlets .30 | Shirts .17 Drawers .30 | Stockings .12 Shirts .55 | Boots and Shoes .56 Socks .32 | Other Clothing .13 Boots and Shoes 1.33 | Other Clothing .34 | _Children_ (under 6):-- | Clothes, Boots, etc. .45 | | Total Clothing 17.48 -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ Rent 5.41 -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ Fuel and Light 7.04 -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ Coal 3.14 | Electricity for Cooking -- Turf 1.79 | Candles .33 Firewood .34 | Paraffin Oil .67 Gas for Lighting .40 | Other Fuel and Light .05 Gas for Cooking, etc. .29 | Electricity for lighting .03 | Total Fuel and Light 7.04 -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ Sundries 13.02 -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ Soap 1.12 | Other Sundries 8.41 Pipe Tobacco 2.11 | Cigarettes 1.38 | Total Sundries 13.02 -------------------------------------+------------------------------------ Total Expenditure 100.0

NOTES ON THE BUDGETS.

(a) _Reliability of Budgets. Tests._

As a test of the reliability of the budget returns several sets were taken at random and were arranged in two groups having a common factor of approximately equal numbers of persons and equal total income. It was found on addition that the proportion of total expenditure spent on each description of food, clothing, etc., was approximately the same in each family and income group. Thus we treated the first 30 budgets from households with small and large incomes in this manner, dividing them so that each lot of 15 would have about the same number of persons and the same income. The selection was made without any reference whatever to expenditure, and the following were the results:--

PERCENTAGE EXPENDITURE.

1st Lot 2nd Lot of 15. of 15. Food 54.3 53.2 Clothing 20.9 20.3 Rent 6.6 6.7 Fuel and Light 6.7 6.7 Sundries 11.5 13.1

NUMBERS IN THE HOUSEHOLD.

Under 4 8 3 4 to 13 30 31 14 and over 57 59 -- -- Total, 95 93

Total Weekly Incomes 1597s. 1543s.

_The Household Budgets in the "S" Group were separately tested and the following results were obtained:--_

+------------------------------------- | INCOME OF HOUSEHOLD. |-------+------+------+------+-------- Proportion of Expenditure | Under | £3 | £4 | £5 | £6 under each of the following | £3 | | | | upwards sub-divisions:-- | | | | | |-------+------+------+------+-------- Food | 61·1 | 60·4 | 56·3 | 48·0 | 41·4 Clothing | 15·7 | 13·7 | 19·3 | 19·4 | 17·7 Rent | 5·3 | 6·6 | 5·0 | 8·8 | 12·4 Fuel and Light | 8·7 | 7·6 | 7·3 | 8·1 | 9·0 Sundries | 9·2 | 11·7 | 12·1 | 15·7 | 19·5 |-------+------+------+------+-------- Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | | | | ------------------------------+-------+------+------+------+--------

This test showed that the budgets we used conformed with common experience, and is, therefore, evidence of their reliability.

(_b_) _Comparison of English and Irish Weights._

The weights used in England in compiling the British index figure were compiled from budgets collected as long ago as 1904. These show a pre-war standard of living and the final index figure shows the percentage increase in expenditure necessary to maintain that precise standard of living absolutely unchanged at the present day.

We were not in possession of any Irish figures by which the pre-war standard of living could be accurately measured, and it was accordingly necessary for us to obtain budgets showing the present standard of living. Our final index figure therefore shows the percentage increase in expenditure which would have been necessary to maintain the present standard of living absolutely unchanged from July, 1914, to the present day.

It has been seen that according to the figures compiled by us, 57.1s. out of every 100s. is spent on food in Irish wage-earning class households; 17.5s. on clothing, and so on, and it is of interest to compare these "weights" with the corresponding figures calculated by the English Ministry of Labour from the "United Kingdom" Budgets of 1904, which relate to the pre-war "United Kingdom" Standard of Living and which are still in use in England.

The following table shows the proportion of each 100s. spent by Wage-Earning Class Households which is spent on (1) Food, (2) Clothing, (3) Rent, (4) Fuel and Light, and (5) Sundries:--

+----------------------- | IN IRELAND. | IN "UNITED KINGDOM." +--------------------------+----------------------- | In June, |In July, 1914| |In July, Class of | 1922, as |as calculated| In July, |1922, as Commodity. | calculated |from the | 1914, as |calculated | from the |previous |calculated |from 1904 | Committee's|column by | from 1904 |Budgets by | Budgets. |price | Budgets. |price | |changes. | |changes. -------------------+------------+-------------+-----------+----------- | A. | B. | C. | D. (1) Food | 57·1 | 56·2 | 60 | 58·6 (2) Clothing | 17·5 | 17·0 | 12 | 15·6 (3) Rent | 5·4 | 7·9 | 16 | 13·3 (4) Fuel and | | | | Light | 7·0 | 6·6 | 8 | 8·3 (5) Sundries | 13·0 | 12·3 | 4 | 4·2 +------------+-------------+-----------+----------- Total | 100·0 | 100·0 | 100 | 100·0 -------------------+------------+-------------+-----------+-----------

It should be explained that the method of arriving at Columns B and D is as follows:--

The amounts of the various commodities consumed, as shown in the table compiled from the budgets, are left unchanged, but the prices are altered according to the prices ruling at the date under consideration, _i.e._, Column B shows the proportion of expenditure in 1914 on the various classes of commodities had the 1914 standard been precisely the same as the present day standard.

(C) Compilation of the Final Figure.

We were now in possession of the retail prices of the individual commodities at the different dates, and of the weights obtained from the summarisation of the household budgets, and these prices and weights for the main groups of articles are set out in the subjoined table:--

+---------------+-----------------+-------------+--------- | | | | Irish |Mid-July, 1914.| Mid-March, 1922.| Mid-June, | Weights | | | 1922. |(see last | | | | par.). --------------+-------+-------+--------+--------+------+------+--------- | A. | B. | A. | B. | A. | B. | Food | 52·4 | 54·6 | 104·8 | 102·8 | 100 | 100 | 57·1 Clothing | 52·7 | 52·9 | 103·9 | 101·7 | 100 | 100 | 17·5 Rent (C) | 78·9 | 78·9 | 100·4 | 100·4 | 100 | 100 | 5·4 Fuel and Light| 46·6 | 48·1 | 104·8 | 104·4 | 100 | 100 | 7·0 Sundries | 50·5 | 51·9 | 103·2 | 103·1 | 100 | 100 | 13·0 --------------+-------+----------------+--------+------+------+---------

The figures A result from the returns from the Post Office. The figures B result from the returns from other Departments. The figures C were obtained from only one Department--the Local Government Board.

It now only remained for us to compile the final figure.

This was ascertained by multiplying the ratio prices of the various commodities by the "weights" appropriate to those commodities (_i.e._, by multiplying the figures in the first six columns of the table above by the figures in the final column).

The following table gives the result so obtained:--

+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+-------- | Mid-July, 1914. | Mid-March, 1922. | Mid-June, 1922. ---------------+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+-------- | A. | B. | A. | B. | A. | B. Food | 2992·0 | 3117·7 | 5984·1 | 5869·9 | 5710·0 | 5710·0 Clothing | 922·3 | 925·7 | 1818·2 | 1779·7 | 1750·0 | 1750·0 Rent (C) | 426·1 | 426·1 | 542·2 | 542·2 | 540·0 | 540·0 Fuel and Light | 326·2 | 336·7 | 730·8 | 730·8 | 700·0 | 700·0 Sundries | 657·0 | 674·7 | 1341·6 | 1327·3 | 1300·0 | 1300·0 ---------------+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+-------- Total | 5323·6 | 5480·9 | 10416·9 | 10249·9 | 10000·0 | 10000·0 ---------------+--------+--------+---------+---------+---------+--------

Then, taking the prices in July, 1914, as the standard and representing them by the figure of 100 we get the final percentage table.

+-----------+---------------+-------------- | Mid. | Mid. | Mid. | July, 1914| March, 1922. | June, 1922. ----------------+-----+-----+-------+-------+-------+------ As Per Cent. of | | | | | | | A | B | A | B | A | B July, 1914. | 100 | 100 | 195·7 | 187·0 | 187·8 | 182·5 ----------------+-----+-----+-------+-------+-------+------

The following table shows the percentage changes so obtained for the main groups of commodities:--

+-------------------+----------------- | March 1922 over | June 1922 over | July 1914. | July 1914. ----------------+---------+---------+---------+------- | A | B | A | B ----------------+---------+---------+---------+------- Food | 99·9 | 88·3 | 90·8 | 83·2 Clothing | 97·3 | 92·0 | 89·9 | 88·7 Rent (C) | 27·3 | 27·3 | 26·8 | 26·8 Fuel and Light | 124·9 | 117·2 | 114·6 | 108·0 Sundries | 104·1 | 96·9 | 97·8 | 92·8 +---------+---------+---------+------- ALL ITEMS | 95·7 | 87·0 | 87·8 | 82·5 ----------------+---------+---------+---------+-------