Chapter 19

(c) Twenty milliards--after the payment of the debts in the second category to be taken over by Germany--as part of the reimbursement for countries which have made credits to the belligerents of the Entente: that is, the United States, Great Britain and France, in proportion to the sums lent.

In what material can Germany pay 20 milliards in a few years? Especially in coal and in material for repairing the devastated territories of France. Germany must pledge herself for ten years to consign to France a quantity of coal at least equal in bulk to the difference between the annual production before the War in the mines of the north and in the Pas de Calais and the production of the mines in the same area during the next ten years. She must also furnish Italy--who, after the heavy losses sustained, has not the possibility of effecting exchanges--a quantity of coal that will represent three-quarters of the figures settled upon in the Treaty of Versailles. We can compel Germany to give to the Allies for ten years, in extinction of their credits, at least 500 millions a year in gold, with privileges on the customs receipts.

This systematization, which can only be imposed by the free agreement of the United States and Great Britain, would have the effect of creating excellent relations. The United States, cancelling their, in great part, impossible debt, would derive the advantage of developing their trade and industry, and thus be able to guarantee credits for private individuals in Europe. It would also be of advantage to Great Britain, who would lose nothing. Great Britain has about an equal number of debits and credits, with this difference, that the debits are secured, while the credits are, in part, unsecured. France's credits are proportionately the worst and her debits largest, almost 27 milliards. France, liberated from her debt, and in a position to calculate on a coal situation comparable with that of before the War and with her new territories, would be in a position to re-establish herself. The cancellation of 27 milliards of debt, a proportionate share in 20 milliards, together with all that she has had, represent on the whole a sum that perhaps exceeds 50 milliards. Italy would have the advantage of possessing for ten years the minimum of coal necessary to her existence, and would be liberated from her foreign debt, which amounts to much more than she can possibly hope for from the indemnity.

Such an arrangement, or one like it, is the only way calculated to allow Europe to set out again on the path of civilization and to re-establish slowly that economic equilibrium which the War has destroyed with enormous damage for the conquerors and the certain ruin of the vanquished.

But, before speaking of any indemnity, the Reparations Commission must be abolished and its functions handed over to the League of Nations, while all the useless controls and other hateful vexations must be put an end to.

While the Allied troops' occupation of the Rhine costs Germany 25 milliards of paper marks a year, it is foolish to speak of reconstruction or indemnity. Either all occupation must cease or the expenses ought not to exceed, according to the foregoing agreements, a maximum of 80 millions at par, or even less.

We shall, however, never arrive at such an arrangement until the Continental countries become convinced of two things: first, that the United States will grant no credits under any formula; secondly, that Germany, under the present system, will be unable to pay anything and will collapse, dragging down to ruin her conquerors.

Among many uncertainties these two convictions become ever clearer.

If in all countries the spirit of insubordination among the working classes is increasing, the state of mind of the German operatives is quite remarkable. The workmen almost everywhere, in face of the enormous fortunes which the War has created and by reason of the spirit of violence working in them, have worked with bad spirit after the War because they have thought that a portion of their labour has gone to form the profits of the industrials. It is useless to say that we are dealing here with an absurd and dangerous conception, because the profit of the capitalist is a necessary element of production, and because production along communist lines, wherever it has been attempted, has brought ruin and misery. But it is useless to deny that such a situation exists, together with the state of mind which it implies. We can well imagine, then, the conditions in which Germany and the vanquished countries find themselves. The workmen, who in France, England and Italy exhibit in various degree and measure a state of intractability, in Germany have to face a situation still graver. When they work they know that a portion of their labour is destined to go to the victors, another part to the capitalist, and finally there will remain something for them. Add to this that in all the beaten countries hunger is widespread, with a consequent diminution of energy and work.

No reasonable person can explain how humanity can continue to believe in the perpetuation of a similar state of things for another forty years.

In speaking of the indemnity which Germany can pay, it is necessary to consider this special state of mind of the operatives and other categories of producers.

But the mere announcement of the settling of the indemnity, of the immediate admission of the vanquished nations into the League of Nations, of the settling the question of the occupation of the Rhine, and of the firm intention to modify the constitution of the League of Nations, according it the powers now held by the Reparations Commission, will improve at once the market and signalize a definite and assured revival.

The United States made a great financial effort to assist their associates, and in their own interests, as well as for those of Europe, they would have done badly to have continued with such assistance. When the means provided by America come to be employed to keep going the anarchy of central Europe, Rumania's disorder, Greece's adventures and Poland's violences, together with Denikin's and Wrangel's restoration attempts, it is better that all help should cease. In fact, Europe has begun to reason a little better than her governments since the financial difficulties have increased.

The fall of the mark and Germany's profound economic depression have already destroyed a great part of the illusions on the subject of the indemnity, and the figures with which for three years the public has been humbugged no longer convince anyone.

5.--FORMING NEW CONNEXIONS WITH RUSSIA

Among the States of the Entente there is always a fundamental discord on the subject of Russia. Great Britain recognized at once that if it were impossible to acknowledge the Soviet Government it was a mistake to encourage attempts at restoration. After the first moments of uncertainty Great Britain has insisted on temperate measures, and notwithstanding that during the War she made the largest loans to the Russian Government (more than 14 milliards of francs at par, while France only lent about 4 milliards), she has never put forward the idea that, as a condition precedent to the recognition of the Soviet Government, a guarantee of the repayment of the debt was necessary. Only France has had this mistaken idea, which she has forced to the point of asking for the sequestration of all gold sent abroad by the Soviet Government for the purchase of goods.

Wilson had already stated in his fourteen points what the attitude of the Entente towards Russia ought to be, but the attitudes actually assumed have been of quite a different order.

The barrier which Poland wants to construct between Germany and Russia is an absurdity which must be swept away at once. Having taken away Germany's colonies and her capacities for expansion abroad, we must now direct her towards Russia where alone she can find the outlet necessary for her enormous population and the debt she has to carry. The blockade of Russia, the barbed wire placed round Russia, have damaged Europe severely. This blockade has resolved itself into a blockade against the Allies. Before the present state of economic ruin Russia was the great reservoir of raw materials; she was the unexplored treasure towards which one went with the confidence of finding everything. Now, owing to her effort, she has fallen; but how large a part of her fall is as much due to the Entente as to her action during the War and since. For some time now even the most hidebound intelligences have recognized the fact that it is useless to talk of entering into trade relations with Russia without the co-operation of Germany, the obvious ally in the vast task of renovation. Similarly, it is useless to talk of reattempting military manoeuvres. While Germany remains disassociated from the work of reconstruction and feels herself menaced by a Poland that is anarchical and disorderly and acts as an agent of the Entente, while Germany has no security for her future and must work with doubt and with rancour, all attempts to reconstruct Russia will be vain. The simple and fundamental truth is just this: One can only get to Moscow by passing through Berlin.

If we do not wish conquerors and conquered to fall one after the other, and a common fate to reunite those who for too long have hated each other and continue to hate each other, a solemn word of peace must be pronounced.

Austria, Germany, Italy, France are not diverse phenomena; they are different phases of the same phenomenon. All Europe will go to pieces if new conditions of life are not found, and the economic equilibrium profoundly shaken by the War re-established.

I have sought in this book to point out in all sincerity the things that are in store for Europe; what perils menace her and in what way her regeneration lies. In my political career I have found many bitternesses; but the campaign waged against me has not disturbed me at all. I know that wisdom and life are indivisible, and I have no need to modify anything of what I have done, neither in my propaganda nor in my attempt at human regeneration, convinced as I am that I am serving both the cause of my country and the cause of civilization. Blame and praise do not disturb me, and the agitations promoted in the heart of my country will not modify in any way my conviction. On the contrary, they will only reinforce my will to follow in my own way.

Truth, be it only slowly, makes its way. Though now the clouds are blackest, they will shortly disappear. The crisis which menaces and disturbs Europe so profoundly has inoculated with alarm the most excited spirits; Europe is still in the phase of doubt, but after the cries of hate and fury, doubt signifies a great advance. From doubt the truth may come forth.

INDEX

ADRAIANOPLE, passes to the Greeks, Adriatic programme, Italy's Albania, an Italian expedition into Alexander the Great as politician Allenstein, a plebiscite for Allies, the, war debts of Alsace-Lorraine, annexation of restitution of America, and question of army of occupation her attitude on reparations result of her entry into the war (_see also_ United States) Apponyi, Count, on the Treaty of Trianon Arabia, Turkey's losses in Armaments, reduction of the peace treaties and Armenia, movement for liberation of Armenian Republic, the Armistice terms, summary of three words change tenor of Army of Occupation, the Asia Minor, the Entente Powers and, Turkey's losses in Australasia, British possessions in Australia as part of British dominions Austria, financial position of, loses access to the sea Austria-Hungary, and the Versailles Treaty civilizing influence of pre-war army of result of Treaty of St. Germain Germain-en-Laye States of, before the war victories of Austrian army, the Azerbajan

BALKANS, the, Russia's policy in Battles, a military fact difference between war and Beethoven Belgium, acquires German territory army of financial position of population of violation of, and the consequences Bernhardi, General von Bismarck, foresight of political genius of Bolshevik Government, the fiasco of result of Bolshevism, and what it is Boxer rebellion, the Kaiser's address to his troops Briand, M., on the objects of the Entente Bridgeheads, German, occupation of, British colonies, before the war, Brussels, Conference of, Budapest, conditions in, mortality in, Bulgaria, army of, the Treaty of Neuilly and, Bülow, von

CANADA as part of British dominions, Cilicia, Civilization, evolution of, Clemenceau, M., and the military guarantees question, and the Paris Conference, and the reparations clause, as destroyer, communicates Poincaré's letter to Lloyd George, fall of, his hatred of the Germans, on peace treaties, replies to Lloyd George's note, Coal fields, Germany's pre-war, Colonial rights, and the Versailles Treaty, Colonies, British, German pre-war, Germany loses her, Commune, the French, Communist system, Russian, failure of, Constantine, King of Greece, return of, Constantinople, retained by the Turks, Russia's desire for, subject to international control, the Treaty of Sèvres and, Croatia and Fiume, Cyrenaica, Czeko-Slovakia, State of, added population of, army of, financial position of, Magyars in

DALMATIA, the London Agreement and, Dante, a celebrated dictum of, Danube Commission, the, Danzig, allotted to Poland, Dardanelles, the, freedom of: Versailles Treaty and, De Foville's estimate of wealth of France, Denikin, Denmark acquires North Schleswig, Disarmament conditions fulfilled by Germany, Disease, and the aftermath of war

ECONOMIC barriers, removal of, and the peace treaty, England, and the Mediterranean, war record of, Entente, the, and Germany's responsibility for war, and the Bolshevik Government, author's opinion of peace terms of, division among, as result of peace treaties, Erzeroum, Mussulman population of, Esthonia, Eupen ceded to Belgium, Europe, area of, financial difficulties of, increased armaments in

Europe, monarchies in, before the war pre-war conditions of reconstruction of, and peace policy results of world-war in States of European civilization, future of European States, war debts of (_cf of_ War Debts)

FERENCZI, Dr., his statistics of sickness in Budapest Fezzan Fichte, and Germany Financial and economic clauses of peace treaty Finland Fiume, Italy's position regarding question of the London Agreement and Wilson and Foch, Marshal, and the military commission and the peace treaties unconstitutional action of France, acquires Saar mines alliances with and the indemnity and the old regime in Russia claims of, at Paris Conference, expenses of her navy financial position of iron industry of Italy and population of post-war army of post-war condition of presses for occupation of the Ruhr pre-war status of private wealth of, before the war purport of her action in the Conference recognizes government of Wrangel safety of, and military guarantees the political class in treaties with U.S. and Great Britain war record of Franco-Prussian War, the indemnity demanded by victors unjust terms of Prussia Frankfort, Treaty of, compared with Versailles Treaty Frederick the Great, political genius of Freedom of the seas, the peace treaties and French-American Treaty, the French-English Treaty, the French territories, liberation Frontiers, changed condition of

GEORGE, Lloyd, a memorandum for Peace Conference a truism of and question of military guarantees and reparations question and Russia and the Paris Conference and the proposed trial of the Kaiser denounces economic manifesto difficult position of, at Paris Conference on Poland's claim to Upper Silesia proposes Germany's admission to League of Nations Georgia, in Bolshevik hands Italy prepares a military expedition to German army reduced by peace terms delegates and the Paris Conference German-Austria, army of loses access to the sea plight of Germany, a country of surprises a war of reconquest by, impossible accepts armistice terms Allies' demands for indemnities and America's entry into the war and her indemnity and reconstruction of Russia and the political sense annual capitalization of commerce of, before the war cost of army of occupation to effect of peace treaty on effect of President Wilson's messages on financial position of her indemnity increased her pre-war colonies her responsibility for the war how she can pay indemnity imports and exports of is she able to pay indemnity asked? loses her colonies losses of, in Great War militarist party in military conditions imposed on population of, in and outside Europe pre-war army of pre-war coal supply of pre-war conditions of result of Versailles Treaty to revolutionary crisis in Sèvres Treaty and suited for democratic principles territories and States in, before the war victories of war record of Goethe Great Britain, and the indemnity and the Treaty of Versailles army of enters the war expenses of her navy financial position of general election in insularity of population of pre-war conditions of war record of why she entered the war Great War, the, author's opinion of peace terms estimated number of dead in how it was decided post-war results of question of responsibility for Greece, acquires Bulgarian territory army of financial position of her gains by Sèvres Treaty her illusion of conquering Turkish resistance her policy of greed the Entente and

HEGEL, and Germany, Helferich, and the capitalization of Germany, Herf, von, and Polish organization, Hindenburg, and the U.S. army, House, Colonel, and the reduction of the German army, and the reparations proposal, Hughes, W.M., Premier of Australia, and the German indemnity, Hungary, alarming mortality in, army of, conditions of life in, delegates of, at Paris Conference, harsh treatment of, losses of, by peace treaty, pre-war, revolutions in, 166 Hunger and disease, a legacy of war, Hymans, M., at Paris Conference,

INDEMNITIES, question of, what Germany can pay, (_see also_ Reparations) Indemnity clause, how inserted, _et seq_., India, British, Inter-Allied debts, problem of, _et seq_. (_see also_ Allies, war debts of) Iron, Germany's lack of, Iron-ore, Germany's pre-war wealth in, Italian frontier, rectification of, Italian Socialists visit Russia, Italians, their difficult theatre of war, Italo-Turkish war, the, Italy, a period of crisis in, an expedition into Albania, and Georgia, and Montenegro, and the Balkans, and the League of Nations, and the London Agreement, and the Paris Conference, army of, breaks with the Alliance, custom of tree-planting in, declares her neutrality, economic sufferings of, enters the war, expenses of her navy, financial position of, Great Britain and, her costly Libyan adventure, her freedom from revolutions, in the Triple Alliance, ministerial crisis in, population of, pre-war status of, stands apart from Conference, suffers from situation in Russia territories annexed to, the Adriatic problem, the question of Fiume, votes for recognition of the Soviet, why she entered the war,

JAPAN, expenses of her navy, Jews, Polish, Judenic, General, Jugo-Slavia, acquires Bulgarian territory, army of, financial position of, Magyars in, Julius Caesar as politician, KANT, Emanuel Kautsky, published documents of Keynes, John Maynard, and inter-Allied debts and the Paris Conference author's admiration for represents English Treasury at Paris Conference the indemnity question and true forecasts of Klagenfurth, a plebiscite for Klotz, and the indemnity Koltchak, Admiral Konigsberg, the home of Emanuel Kant Kowno claimed by Poles

LABOUR and the war Lansing, Robert, and the Paris Conference Law, Bonar, and question of military guarantees and reparations and the indemnity League of Nations, the, a suggested revision of treaties by and Danzig and the participation of the vanquished as trustee of Saar mines covenant of foundation of, and its objects Germany debarred from its capabilities and mistakes modification of two clauses of its constitution needed powers of Wilson in a difficult situation Lettonia Libyan adventure, the Lithuania, Wilna ceded to, but occupied by Poles London Agreement, the secrecy of London, Conference of discusses economic manifesto Lorraine, Germany's pre-war iron production from iron mines of: German ambitions for Loucheur, M., and the indemnity Ludendorff, General, important declaration by Luxemburg, iron industry of

MAGYARS, in Rumania Treaty of Trianon and, Malmédy given to Belgium Marienwerder, a plebiscite for Marne, battle of the Mesopotamia lost by Turkey Military clauses and guarantees of peace treaty Millerand, M., and Sweden Monroe doctrine, the Montenegro, absorbed by the S.H.S. State restoration of the Entente and Moresnet becomes Belgian territory Moscow Government sends gold to Sweden: French action Mussulman population of pre-war Turkey

NAPOLEON I as politician his three great errors Napoleon III Nationalism, and what it implies Naval armaments, the race for Neuilly, the Treaty of New Zealand, Britain's share of Nicholas II, his proclamation regarding Poland weakness of Nineteenth century, the, wars of Nitti, Francesco S., and admission of ex-enemies into League of Nations and Germany's responsibility for the war and Italian Socialists and Russia and the Italian military expedition to Georgia and the proposed trial of the Kaiser at Conferences of London and San Remo denounces economic manifesto his son a prisoner of war ideals of opposes Adriatic adventure receives deputation of German business men signs ratification of Treaty of Versailles the indemnity question and Northcliffe Press, the, and the indemnity

OGIER, M., territorial reconstruction scheme of Oliganthropy, Orlando, M., and the reparations question Orlando Ministry, the, resignation of Ottoman Empire, the, a limited sovereignty to Turkish parts of