Part 17

We know that the inference is absurd in each of the above instances, and we are able at once to show where the flaw in the reasoning lies. We know that splendid flowers are more commonly selected for housing, and that Life Guardsmen are chosen for their tallness, so that we are prevented from falling into the mistake of ascribing splendour of colour in the one instance, or tallness in the other, to the influence of causes which have nothing whatever to do with those attributes; nor is anyone likely to ascribe the longevity of our nobility to the possession of a title. Yet there is nothing in any one of the above inferences which is in reality more unsound than Dr. Stark’s inference from the mortality bills, when the latter are considered with due reference to the principles of interpretation which statisticians are bound to follow.

The fact is, that in dealing with statistics the utmost care is required in order that our inferences may not be pushed beyond the evidence afforded by our facts. In the present instance, we have simply to deal with the fact that the death-rate of unmarried men is higher than the death-rate of married men and widowers. From this fact we cannot reason as Dr. Stark has done to a _simple_ conclusion. All that we can do is to show that one of _three_ conclusions must be adopted:—Either matrimony is favourable (directly or indirectly) to longevity, in a degree sufficient wholly to account for the observed peculiarity; or a principle of selection—the effect of which is such as, on the whole, to fill the ranks of married men from among the healthier and stronger portion of the community—operates in a sufficient degree to account wholly for the observed death-rates; or lastly, the observed death-rates are due to the combination, in some unknown proportion, of the two causes just mentioned.

No reasonable doubt can exist, as it seems to me, that the third is the true conclusion to be drawn from the evidence supplied by the mortality bills. Unfortunately, the conclusion thus deduced is almost valueless, because we are left wholly in doubt as to the proportion which subsists between the effects to be ascribed to the two causes thus shown to be in operation.

It scarcely required the evidence of statistics to prove that each cause must operate to some extent.

It is perfectly obvious, on the one hand, that although hundreds of men who would be held by insurance companies to be ‘bad lives’ may contract marriage, yet on the whole a principle of selection is in operation which must tend to bring the healthier portion of the male community into the ranks of the married, and to leave the unhealthier in the state of bachelorhood. A little consideration will show also that, on the whole, the members of the less healthy trades, very poor persons, habitual drunkards, and others whose prospects of long life are unfavourable, must (on the average of a large number) be more likely to remain unmarried than those more favourably situated. Another fact drawn from the Registrar-General’s return suffices to prove the influence of poverty on the marriage-rate. I refer to the fact that marriages are invariably more numerous in seasons of prosperity than at other times. Improvident marriages are undoubtedly numerous, but prosperity and adversity _have_ their influence, and that influence not unimportant, on the marriage returns.

On the other hand, it is perfectly obvious that the life of a married man is likely to be more favourable to longevity than that of a bachelor. The mere fact that a man has a wife and family depending upon him will suffice to render him more careful of his health, less ready to undertake dangerous employments, and so on; and there are other reasons which will occur to everyone for considering the life of a married man better (in the sense of the insurance companies) than that of a bachelor. In fact, while we are compelled to reject Dr. Stark’s statement that ‘bachelorhood is more destructive to life than the most unwholesome trades, or than residence in an unwholesome house or district, where there has never been the most distant attempt at sanitary improvement of any kind,’ we may safely accept his opinion that statistics ‘prove the truth of one of the first natural laws revealed to man—“It is not good that man should live alone.”’

(From the _Daily News_, October 17, 1868.)

FOOTNOTES:

[14] The reader need hardly be reminded of the complete fulfilment of this anticipation, during the war between France and Germany.

_THE TOPOGRAPHICAL SURVEY OF INDIA._

At the close of the war with Tippoo Sahib, Major Lambton planned the triangulation of the country lying between Madras and the Malabar coast, a district which had been roughly surveyed, during the progress of the war, by Colonel Mackenzie. The Duke of Wellington gave his approval to the project, and his brother, the Governor-General of India, and Lord Clive (son of the great Clive), Governor of Madras, used their influence to aid Major Lambton in carrying out his design. The only astronomical instrument made use of by the first survey party was one of Ramsden’s zenith-sectors, which Lord Macartney had placed in the hands of Dinwiddie, the astronomer, for sale. A steel chain, which had been sent with Lord Macartney’s embassy to the Emperor of China and refused, was the only apparatus available for measuring.

Thus began the great Trigonometrical Survey of India, a work whose importance it is hardly possible to over-estimate. Conducted successively by Colonel Lambton, Sir George Everest, Sir Andrew Waugh, and Lieut.-Col. Walker (the present superintendent), the trigonometrical survey has been prosecuted with a skill and accuracy which renders it fairly comparable with the best work of European surveyors. But to complete in this style the survey of the whole of India would be the work of several centuries. The trigonometrical survey of Great Britain and Ireland has been already more than a century in progress, and is still unfinished. It can, therefore, be imagined that the survey of India—nearly ten times the size of the British Isles, and presenting difficulties a hundredfold greater than those which the surveyor in England has to encounter—is not a work which can be quickly completed.

But the growing demands of the public service have rendered it imperatively necessary that India should be rapidly and completely surveyed. This necessity led to the commencement of the Topographical Survey of India, a work which has been pushed forward at a surprising rate during the past few years. My readers may form some idea of the energy with which the survey is in progress, from the fact that Colonel Thuillier’s Report for the season 1866-67 announces the charting of an area half as large as Scotland, and the preparatory triangulation of an additional area nearly half as large as England.

In a period of thirty years, with but few surveying parties at first, and a slow increase in their number, an area of 160,000 square miles has been completed and mapped by the topographical department. The revenue surveyors have also supplied good maps (on a similar scale) of 364,000 square miles of country during the twenty years ending in 1866. Combining these results, we have an area of 524,000 square miles, or upwards of four times that of Great Britain and Ireland. For all this enormous area the surveyors have the records in a methodical and systematic form, fit for incorporation in the atlas of India. Nor does this estimate include the older revenue surveys of the North-western Provinces which, for want of proper supervision in former years, were never regularly reduced. The records of these surveys were destroyed in the Mutiny—chiefly in Hazaumbaugh and the south-western frontier Agency. The whole of these districts remain to be gone over in a style very superior to that of the last survey.

The extent of the country which has been charted may lead to the impression that the survey is little more than a hasty reconnaissance. This, however, is very far indeed from being the case. The preliminary triangulation, which is the basis of the topographical survey, is conducted with extreme care. In the present Report, for instance, we find that the discrepancies between the common sides of the triangles-in other words, the discrepancies between the results obtained by different observers-are in some cases less than one-tenth of an inch per mile; in others they are from one inch to a foot per mile; and in the survey of the Cossyah and Garrow Hills, where observations had to be taken to large objects, such as trees, rocks, &c., with no defined points for guidance, the results differ by as much as twenty-six inches per mile. These discrepancies must not only be regarded as insignificant in themselves, but must appear yet more trifling when it is remembered that they are not cumulative, inasmuch as the preliminary triangulation is itself dependent on the great trigonometrical survey.

Let us understand clearly what are the various forms of survey which are or have been in progress in India. There are three forms to be considered:—(1) The Great Trigonometrical Surveys; (2) The Revenue Surveys; and (3) the Topographical Surveys.

Great trigonometrical operations are extended in a straight course from one measured base to another. Every precaution which modern skill and science can suggest is taken in the measurement of each base-line, and in the various processes by which the survey is extended from one base-line to the other. The accuracy with which work of this sort is conducted may be estimated from the following instance. During the progress of the Ordnance Survey of Great Britain and Ireland, a base-line nearly eight miles long was measured near Lough Foyle, in Ireland, and another nearly seven miles long on Salisbury Plain. Trigonometrical operations were then extended from Lough Foyle to Salisbury Plain, a distance of about 340 miles; and the Salisbury base-line was calculated from the observations made over this long arc. _The difference between the measured and calculated values of the base-line was less than five inches!_ As we have stated, the trigonometrical survey of India will bear comparison with the best work of our surveyors in England.

A revenue survey is prosecuted for the definition of the boundaries of estates and properties. The operations of such a survey are therefore carried on conformably to those boundaries.

The topographical survey of a country is defined by Sir A. Scott Waugh to imply ‘the measurement and delineation of the natural features of a country, and the works of man thereon, with the object of producing a complete and sufficiently accurate map. Being free from the trammels of boundaries of properties, the principal lines of operations must conform to the features of the country, and objects to be surveyed.’

The only safe basis for the topographical survey of a country is a system of accurate triangulation. And where the extent of country to be surveyed is large, there will always be a great risk of the accumulation of error in the triangulation itself; which must, therefore, be made to depend on the accurate results obtained by the great trigonometrical operations. In order to secure this result, fixed stations are established in the vicinity of the great trigonometrical series. Where this plan cannot be adopted, a network of large symmetrical triangles is thrown over the district to be surveyed, or boundary series of triangles are carried along the outline of the district or along convenient internal lines. The former of these methods is applicable to a hilly district, the latter to a flat country.

When the district to be surveyed has been triangulated, the work of filling-in the topographical details is commenced. Each triangle being of moderate extent, with sides from three to five miles in length, and the angular points being determined, as we have seen, with great exactness, it is evident that no considerable error can occur in filling-in the details. Hence, methods can be adopted in the final topographical work which would not be suitable for triangulation. The triangles can either be ‘measured up,’ or the observer may traverse from trigonometrical point to point, taking offsets and intersections; or, lastly, he may make use of the plane table. The two first methods require little comment; but the principle of plane-tabling enters so largely into Indian surveying, that this notice would be incomplete without a brief account of this simple and beautiful method.

The plane-table is a flat board turning on a vertical pivot. It bears the chart on which the observer is planning the country. Suppose, now, that two points A and B are determined, and that we require to mark in the position of a third point C:—It is clear that if we observed with a theodolite the angles A B C and B A C, we might lay these down on the chart with a protractor, and so the position of C would be determined, with an accuracy proportioned to the care with which the observations were made and the corresponding constructions applied to the chart. But in ‘plane-tabling’ a more direct plan is adopted. A ruler bearing sights, resembling those of a rifle, is so applied that the edge passing through the point A on the chart (the observer being situated at the real station A) passes through the point B on the chart, the line of sight passing through the real station B. The table being fixed in the position thus obtained, the ruler is next directed so that its edge passes through A, while the line of sight points to C. A line is now ruled with a pencil through A towards C. In a similar manner, the table having been removed to the station B, a pencil line is drawn through the point B on the chart towards C. The two lines thus drawn determine by their intersection the place of C on the chart.

The above is only one instance of the modes in which a plane-table can be applied; there are several others. Usually the magnetic compass is employed to fix the position of the table in accordance with the true bearing of the cardinal points. Also the bearings of several points are taken around each station; and thus a variety of tests of the correctness of the work become applicable. Into such details as these I need not here enter. It is sufficient that my readers should have been enabled to recognise the simple principles on which plane-tabling depends, and the accuracy with which (when suitable precautions are taken) it can be applied as a method of observation subsidiary to the ordinary trigonometrical processes.

‘A hilly country,’ says Sir A. Waugh, ‘offers the fairest field for the practice of plane-table surveys, and the more rugged the surface the greater will be the relative advantages and facilities this system possesses over the methods of actual measurement. On the other hand, in flat lands the plane-table works at a disadvantage, while the traverse system is facilitated. Consequently, in such tracts, the relative economy of the two systems does not offer so great a contrast as in the former. In closely wooded or jungly tracts, all kinds of survey operations are prosecuted at a disadvantage; but in such localities, the commanding points must be previously cleared for trigonometrical operations, which facilitates the use of the table.’

In whatever way the topographical details have been filled in, a rigorous system of check must be applied to the work. The system adopted is that of running lines across ground that has been surveyed. This is done by the head of the party or by the chief assistant-surveyor. A sufficient number of points are obtained in this way for comparison with the work of the detail surveyors; and when the discrepancies exceed certain limits, the work in which they appear is rejected. Owing to the extremely unhealthy, jungly, and rugged nature of the ground in which nearly all the Indian surveys have been progressing, it has not always been found practicable to check by regularly chained lines. There are, however, other modes of testing plane-table surveys, and as these entail less labour and expense in hilly and jungly tracts, and are quite as effective if thoroughly carried out, they have been adopted generally, while the measured routes or check-lines have only been pursued under more favourable conditions. Colonel Thuillier states that ‘the inspection of the work of every detailed surveyor in the field has been rigorously enforced, and the work of the field season is not considered satisfactory or complete unless this duty has been attended to.’

The rules laid down to insure accuracy in the survey are—first, that the greatest possible number of fixed points should be determined by regular triangulation; secondly, that the greatest possible number of plane-table fixings should be made use of within each triangle; and lastly, that eye-sketching should be reduced to a minimum. If these rules are well attended to, the surveyor can always rely on the value of the work performed by his subordinates. But all these conditions cannot be secured in many parts of the ground allotted to the several topographical parties owing to the quantity of forest land and the extremely rugged nature of the country. Hence arises the necessity for test-lines to verify the details, or for some vigorous system of check; and this is more especially the case where native assistants are employed.

So soon as the country has been accurately planned, the configuration of the ground has to be sketched up. This process is the end and aim of all the preceding work.

The first point attended to is the arterial system, or water drainage, constituting the outfall of the country; whence are deduced the lines of greatest depression of the ground. Next the watersheds or ridges of hills are traced in, giving the highest level. Lastly, the minor or subordinate features are drawn in with the utmost precision attainable. ‘The outlines of table-land should be well defined,’ says Sir A. Waugh, ‘and ranges of hills portrayed with fidelity, carefully representing the watersheds or _divortia aquarum_, the spurs, peaks, depressions or saddles, isthmuses or connecting-links of separate ranges, and other ramifications. The depressed points and isthmuses are particularly valuable, as being either the sites of ordinary passes or points which new roads should conform to.’

And here we must draw a distinction between survey and reconnaissance. It is absolutely necessary in making a survey that the outlines of ground as defined by ridges, water-courses, and feet of hills should be rigorously fixed by actual observation and careful measurement. In reconnoitring, more is trusted to the eye.

The scale of the Indian topographical survey is that of one inch per mile; the scale of half an inch per mile being only resorted to in very densely wooded or jungly country, containing a few inhabitants and little cultivated, or where the climate is so dangerous that it is desirable to accelerate the progress of the survey.

On the scale of one inch per mile the practised draughtsman can survey about five square miles of average country per day. In intricate ground, intersected by ravines or covered by hills of irregular formation, the work proceeds much more slowly; on the other hand, in open and nearly level country, or where the hills have simple outlines, the work will cost less and proceed more rapidly. On the scale of one inch per mile all natural features (such as ravines or watercourses) more than a quarter of a mile in length can be clearly represented. Villages, towns, and cities can be shown, with their principal streets and roads, and the outlines of fortifications. The general figure and extent of cultivated, waste, and forest lands can be delineated with more or less precision, according to their extent. Irrigated rice-lands should be distinctly indicated, since they generally exhibit the contour of the ground.

The relative heights of hills and depths of valleys should be determined during the course of a topographical survey. These vertical elements of a survey can be ascertained by trigonometrical or by barometrical observations, or by a combination of both methods. ‘The barometer,’ says Sir A. Waugh, ‘is more especially useful for determining the level of low spots from which the principal trigonometrical stations are invisible. In using this instrument, however, in combination with the other operations, the relative differences of heights are to be considered the quantities sought, so that all the results may be referable to the original trigonometrical station. The height above the sea-level of all points coming under any of the following heads is especially to be determined, for the purpose of illustrating the physical relief of the country:—

‘1st. The peaks and highest points of ranges.

‘2nd. All obligatory points required for engineering works, such as roads, drainage, and irrigation, viz.:—the highest points or necks of valleys; the lowest depressions or passes in ranges; the junctions of rivers, and _débouchements_ of rivers from ranges; the height of inundation-level, at moderate intervals of about three miles apart.

‘3rd. Principal towns or places of note.’

Of the various methods employed to indicate the steepness of slope, that of eye-contouring seems alone to merit special comment. In true contouring, regular horizontal lines, at fixed vertical intervals, are traced over a country, and plotted on to the maps. This is an expensive and tedious process, whereas eye-contouring is easy, light, and effective. On this system all that is necessary is that the surveyor should consider what routes persons moving horizontally would pursue. He draws lines on his chart approximating as closely as possible to these imaginary lines. It is evident that when lines are thus drawn for different vertical elevations, the resulting shading will be dark or light, according as the slope is steep or gentle. This method of shading affords scope as well for surveying skill as for draughtsmanship.

(From _Once a Week_, May 1, 1869.)

_A SHIP ATTACKED BY A SWORD-FISH._

I have always been puzzled to imagine how the ‘nine-and-twenty knights of fame,’ described in the ‘Lay of the Last Minstrel,’ managed to ‘drink the red wine through the helmet barr’d.’ But in nature we meet with animals which seem almost as inconveniently armed as those chosen knights, who

... quitted not their armour bright, Neither by day nor yet by night.