Part 39

"How, it may be asked, can this desirable result be _easily_ attained? Evidently in no other way than by the government taking such steps and adopting such measures as will surely bring into its possession an amount of gold sufficient to enable it to deal in its own currency for _all_ government transactions. How is this to be done? Simply by a six-per-cent. 'redemption loan,' having 30 years to run, and to an amount equal to the full volume of the greenback currency now afloat. I say _six per cent._ because I would make the absorption of the loan _speedy_ and _sure_, though it is not unlikely that a loan of the kind might be slowly negotiated at 5 or even 4-1/2 per cent. interest. But a government loan at 6 per cent., having thirty or even _twenty_ years to run, would be caught up with avidity by capitalists on both sides of the Atlantic at a large premium; and it would at once throw the balance of trade in favor of the United States, so that there would be no immediate demand for gold abroad. It would, also, break down at once the mischievous ring speculations in gold at home, and obviate the necessity of buying gold for the payment of customs; and as gold could be obtained at any time for greenbacks or the bills of specie-paying banks, the demand for it would become so small that gold, instead of commanding, as it does at present, a ruinously high premium, would most likely become a drug!

"Such a loan as I have indicated should be put upon the principal money markets of the United States and in Europe and bid for simultaneously, and _payable_ in _gold_.

"Should such a condition of monetary affairs be attained the government might withdraw the greenbacks from circulation, so fast as the volume of currency necessary to meet the requirements of commerce should be supplied by sound specie-paying banks, until the whole amount ($400,000,000) shall have been retired, without disturbing materially the general current of trade or adding a single dollar to the present indebtedness of the United States. The interest on the new loan would, of course, have to be provided for; but that would be more than compensated by the saving of gold premium, now annually required in payments for foreign importations, which, whatever may be the amount, is added to the price or cost of all foreign commodities consumed by the people of the United States. The loan, moreover, would doubtless be taken at a premium of 10 to 15 per cent.; if so, $40,000,000 to $60,000,000 would be realized by the government by the operation.

"The glory of this great and patriotic achievement may be made to redound to the honor of the Democratic party is aroused to a proper sense of justice, and stimulated to a faithful performance of its obvious duty to the country; and, above all, inspired with a firm determination to be true to its own self.

"I have the honor to remain, with great respect,

"Very truly, your friend, "J. E. COOLEY."

DAVID A. WELLS TO TILDEN

"NORWICH, CONN., _Nov. 9th_, (_1875_).

"MY DEAR MR. TILDEN,--I return herewith answers to all your list of questions, so far as I am able. It is not easy to give definite answers to all, especially in relation to aggregate national wealth, income, and savings.

"I do not believe it judicious for you, in your message, to enter in any degree into the field of economic controversy. The masses won't comprehend, and the doctrinaires will fight you. Stick to the great principles, and do not commit yourself against contraction. I have thought a good deal over our conversation of last week, and I am more and more convinced there is no other practical way out of our financial difficulties. 'All roads lead to Rome,' and all roads to resumption involve contraction at some stage if they lead where they pretend to.

"Very Truly Yours, "DAVID A. WELLS."

"QUESTIONS

"'1. What, at a given period, was the population of England, France, United States?

"'2. What is the best estimate of their aggregate capital at such period?

"'3. Their annual gross income or earnings?

"'4. Their annual income from foreign government?

"'5. Their annual outgo to pay interest on foreign debts?

"'6. Their annual net savings or accumulation?

"'7. Their exports?

" imports?

"'8. Production of gold and silver in United States for each of five years?

"'Exports and imports of gold and silver during same period?

"ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS.

"NO. 1. POPULATION.

From 1872. France (exclusive of Alsace and Lorraine) 36,102,920 " " Great Britain 31,835,000 " 1870. United States (Census) 38,115,641 " 1872. " " (Estimated) 40,000,000

"NO. 2. AGGREGATE CAPITAL.

"_United States._--The valuation of the property of the U. S. by the census of 1870 was (in currency) $30,068,000,000. The returned assessed valuation for the same year was less than one-half, or $14,178,000,000. The census counted as property, both property and the evidence of debt secured on such property. I do not think the productive capital of the United States in excess of $25,000,000,000.

"_Great Britain._--Baxter, in 1867-8, estimated, from accepted data, the aggregate value of the real and personal property of the United Kingdom at 6,000,000,000 _pounds_, or 30,000,000,000 dollars. I should put it for 1872 as high as _seven_, possibly _eight_, thousand million pounds.

"_France._--I know of no estimate of the aggregate value of property in France. I find several recent French writers, who incidentally refer to it, as less than that of Great Britain.

"NO. 3 AND 5. ANNUAL GROSS AND NET INCOME ON SAVINGS.

"Baxter estimates, for 1867-8, the annual gross income of the United Kingdom as 814,000,000, or $4,070,000,000; and the _net_ at about 600,000,000, or $3,000,000,000. This last constitutes the fund out of which the nation feeds and clothes itself, pays taxes, and repairs and saves. I should estimate the gross income of Great Britain for 1872-4 at full 1,000,000,000, and the net at 800,000,000. There are no reliable data for estimating annual savings, constituting new capital. _Ten_ per cent., which is a high estimate, in my judgment, would give 80,000,000, or $400,000,000; and yet these figures are not consistent with the recent returns of the Board of Trade, respecting the income from British foreign investments.

"_France._--Victor Bonnet asserts that the data are certain that France before the war of 1870 saved annually as much as $400,000,000--2,000,000,000 francs; and thinks that the present saving is about $600,000,000. He quotes Sir Robert Peel, approvingly, to the effect that France, with equal revenues, saves more than Great Britain.

"_United States._--Greater natural resources here give a greater gross and net income, with equal labor. I am inclined to put our gross income between $6 and $7,000,000,000. I do not believe our annual saving, in prosperous years, in excess of _five_ per cent., or from $300 to $400,000,000.

"4. ANNUAL INCOME FROM FOREIGN INVESTMENTS.

"_Great Britain._--A late number of the London _Economist_ puts 80,000,000, or $400,000,000, as the minimum paid Great Britain by foreign countries for interest on capital invested abroad, and _for freights and commissions_. The last year, I should think, represented full _one-third_.

"_France._--The estimate of revenue derived by France from industrial enterprises in foreign countries and foreign loans, from 1873-4, is about 260,000,000 francs, $52,000,000.

"_United States._--Nothing.

"5. ANNUAL OUTGO TO PAY INTEREST ON FOREIGN DEBTS.

"_Great Britain._--Nothing.

"_France._--An inconsiderable amount, probably not in excess of 12 to 15 millions of dollars.

"_United States._--Not less than _one hundred millions_ of dollars. Probably more than less.

"7. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS.

_United States_ 1872-3 Exports $677,000,000, Currency. 1873-4 " 716,000,000, " 1872-3 Imports 649,000,000, Gold. 1873-4 " 693,000,000, " _Great Britain_ 1872-3 Exports £311,000,000, $1,555,000,000 1873-4 " 297,000,000, or 1,985,000,000 1872-3 Imports 371,000,000 -------------- 1873-4 " 370,000,000 -------------- _France_ 1872. Exports 3,679,000,000 francs, $735,000,000 " Imports 3,447,000,000 francs, $689,000,000

"8. BULLION PRODUCT OF THE UNITED STATES FOR EACH OF FIVE YEARS.

"The present product of gold and silver, or rather the product for 1873 and 1874, is estimated by the director of the Mint in his last report at $70,000,000 per annum. For the five years, from 1871 to 1876 inclusive, an average of $60,000,000 per annum would probably be about correct.

"9. EXPORTS OF GOLD AND BULLION FOR FOUR YEARS.

Exports 1870 $43,882,000 " 1871 83,400,000 " 1872 72,727,000 " 1873 73,417,000 Imports 1870 26,417,000 " 1871 21,268,000 " 1872 13,742,000 " 1873 21,478,000

FOOTNOTES:

[56] _Rochester Union and Advertiser_, of which Purcell was promoter.

[57] Mr. George W. Smith, my colleague as Executor of Mr. Tilden's Estate and at the date of the following letter his private Secretary, writes me:

"The horse General Dix refers to, and which he had in Virginia, was a gray horse, about sixteen hands high, and a remarkably easy-riding horse. Mr. Tilden, I think, bought the outfit off him--horse, saddle, and bridle--just before General Dix went to Paris, and paid him $300. Before the general's return from Paris, Mr. Tilden put the horse in part payment of another horse. The general never recovered him."

[58] An expert accountant employed by Mr. Tilden to report upon the bank accounts of persons implicated in the frauds of what is known to history as the Tweed ring.

[59] A lawyer who had been a member of the law firm of Brown, Hall & Vanderpool, and at the time of writing this letter was Mayor, and inculpated with Tweed and others in municipal frauds.

[60] A famous dealer in horses in the New York market from Kentucky, and who supplied Mr. Tilden with his best riding and coach horses.

[61] This no doubt refers to the nomination of Greeley for President.

[62] Mr. Tilden spent most of the summer of 1873 in Europe, his first visit to the Old World. He bore with him the above enumerated letters of introduction from Mr. Evarts.

[63] Mr. George W. Smith, Mr. Tilden's private secretary, informs me that, according to his recollection, Mr. Tilden did not cease to be chairman of the State committee until he was nominated for Governor in 1874.

[64] This address was found among Mr. Tilden's papers, and was written by him at the request of the Mayor.

[65] Son of Judge Campbell, once a surrogate of New York, and, like his father, a Democrat.

[66] Former Secretary of State.

[67] Presumably then managing editor of the _Evening Post_.

[68] Referring to the approaching election of State officers, at which the Governor's canal reform policy was to be submitted for the first time to the popular crucible.

[End of volume I.]

Transcriber's Notes:

Simple spelling, grammar, and typographical errors were silently corrected.

Punctuation normalized.

Anachronistic and non-standard spellings retained as printed.

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Large blank spaces in text denoted by ____.

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