Part 4

Russia has been and will be an ally too unsteady to count as a factor of equilibrium in European politics. Moreover, she is a troublesome factor, and likely to become directly or indirectly the instigator of a European war. In 1904, Russia got herself involved in war with Japan, which exhausted all her forces. During a sequence of years, Germany had her hands completely free in the East, and it was certainly not Russia’s balancing forces, but considerations of a quite different nature, which then prevented Germany from falling upon France. On three occasions during the last century Russia’s leanings towards complete possession of the Black Sea have served as causes of war; and in that just ended, Russia’s interests in the Balkans were the motives for aggression on the part of Austria and Germany. With Russia’s reconstitution her leanings towards possession of the Black Sea and particularly the Straits will necessarily revive; this has already been announced by the “Chairman of the Slav Congress in Moscow and of the Russian Conference in London,” M. Briantchaninoff, with the idea that the mandate of guardianship over the Dardanelles and Constantinople should in all justice be entrusted to nobody but Russia.

M. Briantchaninoff’s opinion is not a mere accident; we have no reason to regard it as such. There is no doubt that, in a reconstituted Russia, by a natural reaction from the humiliations and outrages suffered by the country, the nationalist wave will rise very high. This nationalism will have as its aims those of militant Slavism. One of these aims has always been the orthodox Cross towering over “Haghia-Sophia.” And the Straits were promised to Russia. M. Sazonoff spoke of that in the Imperial Douma amidst a storm of applause. This long-pursued object has escaped from Russian hands thanks only to the microbes which made their way into M. Lenin’s sealed-up carriage. It was almost reached, and it can be reached. It is necessary to try to reach it. Lenin is already no more. M. Briantchaninoff will be heard with thundering voice; M. Miliukoff will not be able to refuse his help, having shown interest in the Dardanelles during his whole life. M. Sazonoff has in his hands the Allies’ promises, which only for a time fell into the hands of “Comrade” Tchitcherin. Thus the watchword: “To Constantinople!” And that means: “To Belgrade! To Athens! To Bucharest!” and also “To Paris! To London! To Washington!”

RUSSIA’S POLICY IN THE BALTIC

From the direction of the Baltic Sea, reconstituted Russia threatens us with another political danger. This danger comes from the strange policy Russia has pursued in the Baltic countries, a policy whose repetition is revealed by many signs. Feeling instinctively her administrative incapacity, Russia thus distinctly shows the effects of the influence of German elements in the staff of her administrators. During all the time of her domination over these countries, she left full power in the hands of the Baltic barons who--except in some accidental and temporary cases--have been the administrators and the real masters of the land. They took great advantage of this situation, endeavouring to give the country a German character. Further, they organised systematic German colonisation, for the realisation of which Berlin put large sums at their disposal. This colonisation took on such vast proportions and was carried on so openly that it finally attracted the attention of the Russian Government itself, which, in order to paralyse its effects, set up Russian colonisation in its turn. The latter, however, led to no results, the Russian peasant not being prepared for the intensive agricultural methods adopted in the country. The feelings and leanings of the Baltic nobility have clearly shown themselves during the war. It is enough to remember that they offered to General Hindenburg a third part of their lands for the purpose of colonisation. Their leanings were in perfect accord with the aims of the Pan-Germans, of whom many were emigrants from the Baltic, and who, like Professor Schiemann and P. Rohrbach, have not been playing an unimportant part. It is extremely interesting to observe that these tendencies have not ceased with the defeat of Germany. It is known that the Germans have promised to Latvia energetic assistance against the Bolsheviki if a right to the land is granted to all the combatants.

It is certain that after the war there will be a surplus of population in Germany, and it is not for nothing that Count Brokdorff-Rantzau complains in one of his notes that it will be difficult to find room for this surplus of inhabitants, as it is probable that the principal States will close their doors to them. There is no doubt whatever that a large part of this excess of population will go over to the Baltic, where they will find land ready for them and will be received with open arms by the Baltic barons of Pan-German mind. The Russian Government, as past experience has proved, will be unable to oppose this fresh _Drang nach Osten_, and if the Lettish people do not possess enough freedom of action, that is to say, if there is no independent Latvia, one can be supremely sure that German influence will be very great. On the other hand, the resolution of the various Landestags, Landesrats, and Regentschaftsrats, which have asked for the closest _rapprochement_ with Germany, militarily and economically, and have offered the ducal crown to the Hohenzollern dynasty, leaves no doubt about the direction in which the sympathies of the Baltic Germans will go. The Baltic is, in the hands of Russia, a borderland with predominant German interests, a land to which Germany stretches out her hand, a land always ready, at a moment favourable to Pan-Germanism, to detach itself from Russia and pass over to the side of her adversaries. Thus, to be logical in the matter of the Baltic States, one must decide, not between Russia and Latvia, but between the latter and Germany.

And thus the argument of political motives leads to a conclusion which is not at all to the advantage of Russia’s reconstitution. For the re-establishment of equilibrium in European politics, Russia is of no value. She is not, to that end, something which should be invented if she did not exist.[4]

THE POLITICAL RÔLE OF THE NEW STATES

In order to have an absolutely clear idea of the question, it is still necessary to look at the other side; _i.e._, to represent to oneself the probable policy of the States detached from Russia. We have already shown that one cannot expect aggression from these States, because of the relative external weakness of them individually. It is equally unimaginable that they should form an aggressive alliance, for one cannot realise a common aggressive aim for all these States. Consequently one cannot expect a violation of peace from their side.

But taking into account their relative weakness, will these States not be subject to envy and aggression on the part of their stronger neighbours, and will they not in this way, against their will, be the cause of disturbing the peace? It is necessary to envisage this peril, but it is possible to avert it. In this one may rightly rely on the League of Nations in which the small nations put all their hope.

Assuredly, the League of Nations is just now not strong enough; but, in view of the general national exhaustion, one cannot expect, as soon as peace is concluded, aggression against the States which have the authority of the Peace Conference on their side. If aggressive forces gather later, the League of Nations will have had time in the interval to organise itself definitely and to command moral and material strength sufficient to check aggression.

There is another way, too, of guaranteeing the security of the new States: an alliance between them, or at least between those of them which have access to the Baltic Sea; viz., Finland, Esthonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and probably White-Russia, an alliance with many certain chances of development in one direction or another. Assuredly, there are still ancient accounts to be settled between some of these nations, but common and vital interests are so strong that History will be no obstacle in the matter. All these nationalities have always had continual relations with Western civilisation, and there would quickly and easily be formed between them a community of intellectual and moral interests. The economic intercourse between them is also capable of vast development. For instance, Poland can supply all the other States with her coal, and Lithuania can supply the corn which Finland needs. Undoubtedly, there are common interests between all the above-named States in the trade of the Baltic Sea. Each one of them has a natural _Hinterland_, and, consequently, is vitally interested in the guarantee of freedom of trade in the Baltic Sea. Besides, the mere political interest of common defence is a strong enough basis for an alliance of all the Baltic States, for they are under the double menace of Germany on one side and Russia on the other. All these States have experienced in fact the gravity of this menace, and so all will understand the great value of this defensive alliance.

THE DOMINIUM MARIS BALTICI

(Command of the Baltic Sea) has been for centuries a bone of contention between the Northern and Eastern States of Europe. For this the Teutons have contended, and Poland, Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Russia. Germany had the same aim, and before the war had nearly reached it. During the whole of history, every State which acquired strength and authority in the North or East of Europe, evinced this inevitable leaning towards possession of the Baltic Sea, and it was only in the measure of its success in that direction that it could play its part as a Great Power, a rôle which ceased the moment the State was deprived of that DOMINIUM MARIS BALTICI. To give it again to one of the coastwise States would mean a fresh menace to the peace of Europe; but by putting it into the hands of those to whom it belongs by natural right, that is to say, into the common possession of the States surrounding that sea, one would remove one of the causes of probable conflicts in the future of Europe.

LINE OF PARTITION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND GERMANY

For yet another reason the Baltic States, or rather their alliance, will have a great rôle to play--that of a boundary line of economic and political culture between Russia and Germany. This partition--which might be called a _cordon sanitaire_--is absolutely indispensable. Germany’s direct influence on Russia, with no obstacle between them, is a real danger. To the naïve and dreamy soul of the childlike Russian villagers, the extreme sociological theories of the West, born from a very complex economic situation, are a direct temptation and a dangerous poison, as illustrated by M. Lenin’s sealed railway carriage. The teachings of German Social Democracy have taken such root in Russian soil and have produced such a harvest that it has caused much merriment to the Teuton Field-Marshals; while to Russia it has brought extreme abasement and almost irretrievable disaster.

And this is likely to happen again, everywhere and always, whenever a backward race, neighbour of another highly developed, would fain borrow from the latter and put into immediate operation “the latest advances of civilisation.”

It is the same in regard to economic relations. Germany, deprived of her colonies, and lacking sufficient resources in raw materials and rich markets, will necessarily direct the surplus of her economic energy towards Russia, which will easily become a German colony and submit entirely to German influence. In this respect, Germany had already arrived at considerable results before the war. She will work in the same direction, and after the signing of peace with still greater activity, which will assuredly lead to results hardly desirable from the political point of view. A Russia invaded by capital and technical forces from Germany, and a Germany with Russian raw materials and Russia’s market at her disposal, will be such great economic powers that each will separately appear a serious menace, and all the more so if in alliance.

But what is more clear and more important is the line of political partition between Germany and Russia. The political security of Europe used to be constantly under the menace of an alliance between Russia and Germany, an alliance which would have radically destroyed the balance of power. This menace was in no way artificial but perfectly real, and might have been realised at any moment. As we have tried to prove, it will inevitably reappear with the reconstitution of Russia. The vanquished two of this great war will not at once submit to their fate; both will be discontented and will cogitate ways of improving their situation. This alone is a sufficient basis for a _rapprochement_ or an alliance. Russia will not resist for long the temptation of an alliance with Germany, of which the leaders beyond the Rhine are already openly talking. Consequently, it is necessary to separate Russia from Germany, that is, to prevent their direct union, and to that end it would be impossible to find a more adequate and easy means than the _cordon sanitaire_ of the States named. Truth to tell, it would be necessary to invent this alliance if it did not force itself into being.

CONCLUSION

We have arrived at the end of this study and may now summarise.

The question of the organisation of the Lettish people in an independent State must be decided quickly and definitely. The restoration of anything whatever of the _status quo ante_, whether _de facto_, temporary or indefinite, would serve no purpose because it would not give to the Lettish people the juridical basis necessary to the reconstruction of a ruined life. This question must be solved independently of the will of the Russian people, because, in principle, the idea that the destiny of any people whatsoever depends on the will of another people, is inadmissible; because also it is impossible to foresee when the Russian people will be in a position to make its will freely known. In definitely deciding the destiny of Latvia, it is necessary to reject the project of an All-Russian Federation.

Such a federation is impossible. In accordance with the laws of historical continuity, it is impossible to pass from a centralised State to one of the most complicated and most delicate forms of State organisation. Besides, the peoples of Russia have no such community of intellectual, moral and economic interests as might become the solid foundation of a free co-existence in one and the same State. The All-Russian Federation will either divide itself into different States or change itself into a centralised State in which the natural rights of its different peoples will not be guaranteed. The only just solution of the question of Latvia is the recognition of that country as an independent State.

This is not only the natural right of the Lettish people. It has long been the object of its permanent and definite leanings, and these are in harmony with its well-recognised interests.

The interests of Russia will in no way suffer from the separation of Latvia; neither economically, for Latvia will certainly be a better intermediary between the West and the East than Russia was or would be; nor strategically, for Latvia will be a much more conscientious sentinel on the Baltic Sea than Russia was or would be.

It is impossible for Russia to claim to re-enter her former boundaries on the necessity of European balance of power, for, as a factor of equilibrium, Russia has been found wanting, and one can foresee her future complete submission to the economic and political influence of Germany, as well as to her civilisation.

On the other hand, the interests of a lasting peace demand the creation of a series of independent national States for the peoples inhabiting the shores of the Baltic Sea; and, between them, a defensive alliance for which there are sufficient grounds in the shape of common economic, political and intellectual interests. Such an alliance would play at the same time the rôle of the necessary line of demarcation between Russia and Germany. Moreover, it is the only natural solution of the problem of the _Dominium maris Baltici_, which has been an apple of discord for centuries and has often been the disturber of the world’s peace.

Footnotes:

[1] One of the published works of the Russian Political Conference (from the pen of Mandelstam), specially devoted to the question of Poland, has received a well-merited refutation in the brilliant pamphlet of M. H. Grappin (_Memorandum on the Application of the Nationalities Principle to the Russian Question_).

M. Gaston Gaillard, in his book _The Pan-Russian Movement and the Borderland Peoples_, Paris, 1919, gives a remarkable summary, with full documentary evidence, of the aspirations of the borderland peoples of Russia.

[2] P. J. Sahlit, _Devastation of Latvia by the Russian Armies_, Petrograd, 1917 (in Russian).

[3] As fear has big eyes, even among fearless people like M. Savinkoff, it is believed, for instance, that this latter gentleman has found in the Bolshevik lines two divisions of Lettish Rifles, _i.e._, 60,000 men (_Pages Modernes_, No. 1, page 7). If we take into account that many Letts have fought from the beginning in the ranks of the Czeko-Slovaks, in the army of Denikin and in that of the North, and remembering that the Lettish regiments have suffered great losses during the war, one can only ask with amazement where this great number of Lettish youths comes from. No more than 3,500 Letts can be counted among the Bolsheviki, all the rest are a vision inspired by fear.

[4] Details on this point will be found in the pamphlet of Count Jean Tarnovsky, _La Menace Allemande et le Péril Russe_, Imprimerie Moderne, 17, rue Duler, Biarritz, 1919.

End of Project Gutenberg's Latvia & Russia, by Arveds Karlis Kristaps Bergs