Part 2

Tail Lobbing Raising the flukes well out of the water and crashing or slapping them back flat against the water's surface producing a loud sound.

Tail Rake A subset of the tail lobbing is the rake in which the flukes are raked laterally across the water's surface.

Half or Full A leap from the water in which a portion of the Bodied Breach whale's body emerges from the water only to reenter with a large splash.

Avoidance The temporary leaving of an area or a change in the direction of travel.

Abandonment Leaving an area prematurely and not being seen again for at least one season in that area. ---------------------------------------------------------------------

TABLE 5. Juraszs' vessel/aircraft classes (after Jurasz and Jurasz, 1979)

Class 1 Touring Vessel Over 10k Tons

Class 2 Touring Vessel 5k-10k tons

Class 3 Commercial Fishing/Crabbing

Class 4 Charter & Pleasure

Class 5 Cabined High RPM Outdrive Units

Class 6 Sailboat Using Aux. Power

Class 7 Utility Craft, Outboard Engine

Class 8 Kayak, Sailboat (no engines)

Class 9 Aircraft, Fixed

Class 10 Aircraft, Rotor

Class 11 Aircraft, Jet

Class 12 Hydrofoil

Class 13 Another Humpback

Class 14 Killer whales

Class 15 Minke Whales

Class 16 R/V GINJUR (Juraszs' research vessel)

Class 17 Wake Only

The increase in visitors and vessels to Glacier Bay is presented in Tables 6-8. (Data included in Table 6 cannot be compared to data presented in Table 7 because of difference in methods of data collection, sample area, time, effort, etc.)

Commercial fishing vessel activity in the Bay was probably low until the 1970's. Since 1972 (it is not known whether data are available prior to 1972) commercial fishing vessel visits have fluctuated (Figure 4), but fishing activity has been greatest during the summer months (Figure 5). Sport fishing visits have increased during the same time period (Figure 6).

[Footnote 4: This summary is based on information presented at the meeting by Mr. John Chapman and Charles and Virginia Jurasz.]

POSSIBLE CAUSE-EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN HUMAN USE OF GLACIER BAY AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF HUMPBACK WHALES FROM THE BAY[5]

The meeting participants agreed that the observed decrease in the number of whales in Lynn Canal in 1974 and Glacier Bay in 1978 may be attributable to a number or combination of factors. Available evidence suggests human activity was at least one of the causes, or served to trigger otherwise "natural events". In Lynn Canal, humpback whales were known to feed on herring (_Clupea harengus pallasi_). In 1974, the year a herring fishery began, the number of humpback whales dropped to one (Table 1). Between 1974 and 1978 fishing continued. There was no fishing in 1979.

Use of the Canal by Class 5 vessels (cabin cruisers with high RPM outdrive units) increased by 15-20 percent each year after 1970 (Jurasz and Jurasz, 1979, p. 85). Three humpback whales were seen in Lynn Canal during the 1975-1977 seasons, the number increasing to five in 1978-1979. The relationship between vessel activity, fishing effort, fish take, fish abundance, and the presence and activity of whales in Lynn Canal does not appear to be documented.

In Glacier Bay, increased vessel traffic may be one of the factors responsible for the movement of humpback whales from the Bay in 1978 and 1979. The Juraszs' data, while not evaluated fully, suggest that there has been a general increase in avoidance by humpback whales of Class 1 through 5 vessels over the three year period, 1976-1978.

TABLE 6. Number of visitors and vessels to Glacier Bay National Monument.[a]

Cruise Ships Private Vessels Juraszs' (incomplete count) Year Visitation Increase Classes 1-2 Juraszs' Classes 4-8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------

1965 1,800 ---------------------------------------------------------------------

1969 16,000 789% over 1965 450 ---------------------------------------------------------------------

1970 29,700 86% over 1969 ---------------------------------------------------------------------

1972 33 ---------------------------------------------------------------------

1978 109,500 269% over 1970 123 1800 584% over 1969 ---------------------------------------------------------------------

1979 123 ---------------------------------------------------------------------

[Footnote a: Based on a table and information provided at the meeting by Mr. John Chapman, National Park Service. (Modified by adding Juraszs' classes of vessels.)]

TABLE 7. Number of vessel sightings per month in each class as seen from the Juraszs' R/V GINJUR. (from Jurasz and Jurasz, 1979)

1977 1978 ---------------------------- ------------------------------- Vessel Class June July August TOTAL June July August TOTAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------

1 20 22 11 53 17 25 8 50

3 67 18 6 91 62 31 64 157

4 37 42 30 109 29 125 64 218

5 38 45 17 100 27 61 24 112

6 3 14 0 17 0 29 19 48

7 6 4 6 16 8 4 5 17

8 7 2 7 16 2 12 3 17

12 4 3 7

TABLE 8. Average vessel sightings per day in each class as seen from the Juraszs' R/V GINJUR. (Modified from Jurasz and Jurasz, 1979)

Vessel Percent Percent Class 1977 1978 Decrease Increase

1 3.90 3.20 18%

3 5.74 13.47 135%

4 8.38 16.87 101%

5 6.93 8.19 18%

6 1.11 3.99 259%

7 1.21 1.38 14%

8 1.24 1.18 5% -----------------------------------------------------------

J F M A M J J A S O N D

=SALMON=

King L L L L M H H H M L L L |--------------------------------------------------------|

Red L M M M L |---------------------|

Coho H H H H |----------------|

Pink L H H H M |---------------------|

Chum L H H M M |---------------------|

=HALIBUT= |---------------------|

=CRAB=

Tanner ------------------| |--------

King -------| |---------------

Dungeness |----------------|

Key |---------| commercial fishing occurs L Low level M Medium level H High level

Natural changes in the environment and/or in the behavior of whales have occurred concurrently with increased human/vessel activity in Glacier Bay. Such natural changes include spatial and temporal trends or cycles in the physical (temperature, tides, currents, turbidity, etc.), chemical (salinity, dissolved gases, inorganic/organic substances--nutrients, etc.) or biological (primary productivity, zooplankton, nekton, benthic species, predators, etc.) properties or characteristics of the waters within and outside the Bay. Temporal and/or spatial differences in relative abundance of three different prey species within and outside the Bay may have occurred and been responsible, at least in part, for the movement of humpbacks from Glacier Bay. At this time, data are inadequate to relate the movement of humpback whales from Glacier Bay in 1978 and 1979 to physical, chemical, or biological factors. Meeting participants felt that physical and chemical factors were unlikely to have changed sufficiently between 1976 and 1978 to affect humpback whales, while biological factors, perhaps as a result of physio-chemical changes, could have changed sufficiently to have caused or contributed to the movement.

Human activity may have caused changes in the physical, chemical, or biological environment, effecting humpbacks directly or indirectly. Human and vessel activities may have occurred such that the space (vertical and/or horizontal) available to whales for normal activities was less than that necessary (below some threshold level or value). "Too many" vessels may have transited an area and/or approached whales "too closely" for "too long" a period of time, producing visual, acoustic, tactile, chemical, or other as yet unknown stimuli at levels or values (magnitude, intensity, duration, frequency, interval, etc.) greater than the whales would tolerate. The physical-acoustic environment may have changed as a result of sounds produced by vessels. Vessel sounds may be modified, amplified, intensified, etc., as a result of the geological/topographical features of Glacier Bay (and perhaps Lynn Canal as well). Direct interference with the whales' own sounds may have occurred or "environmental" sound levels may have exceeded certain thresholds. Basic data on the acoustic properties and characteristics of Glacier Bay with and in the absence of vessels are lacking.

Changes in water quality may have occurred through pollution. Data are insufficient to document the past or present levels of pollution, but they were thought by meeting participants to be relatively low.

Changes in the biological environment induced by human activity may be contributory to the movement of whales. Movement from Lynn Canal may have resulted from direct competition for the same resource at the same time, by depletion of the resource below levels sufficient to support humpbacks or as a result of noise or the presence of fishing vessels. Fishing activity or overharvesting (depletion of resource) of other species at other trophic levels may indirectly impact humpbacks through the food web/chains. There are insufficient data to prove or disprove such hypotheses at this time.

In summary, a best interpretation of the available data is that uncontrolled increase of vessel traffic, particularly of erratic charter/pleasure craft, may have adversely altered the behavior of humpback whales in Glacier Bay and thus may be implicated in their departure from the Bay the past two years. The causal mechanism of this adverse reaction to increased vessel traffic remains unknown. The effects of increasing vessel traffic apparently are exacerbated by the narrow physical confines of Glacier Bay. This analysis is not clear-cut, however, and may be confounded, at least in 1979, by possible shifts in the occurrence and availability of preferred prey species of humpback whales.

[Footnote 5: This summary is based on information presented at the meeting and resulting discussions.]

ADEQUACY OF EXISTING DATA

In the Background and Possible Cause and Effect sections it was stated that insufficient data exist to indicate cause and effect relationships. Data are not sufficient in many areas, e.g.:

1) environmental baseline data (biological, chemical, and physical) are inadequate;

2) data available (i.e., Juraszs') have not been analyzed fully;

3) changes in human use of areas are not adequately quantified (e.g., for fishing, cruising, touring, pleasure boating); and

4) data on the acoustic characteristics of Glacier Bay or the vessels occurring in the Bay are not available.

MANAGEMENT AND RESEARCH ACTIVITIES TAKEN OR UNDER CONSIDERATION[6]

The National Park Service (NPS) is responsible for managing and overseeing the use of Glacier Bay National Monument in support of the objectives defined for the Service, when it was established in 1916; an excerpt from the Act creating the Service in 1916 states that the purpose of the Service is:

"To conserve the scenery and the natural and historic objects and the wildlife therein and to provide for the enjoyment of the same in such manner and by such means as will leave them unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations."

The intent in establishing the Monument is defined in the Proclamations of 1925 and 1939, sections of which are excerpted and presented below.

"Whereas, there are around Glacier Bay ... a number of tide-water glaciers of the first rank in a magnificent setting of lofty peaks, and more accessible to ordinary travel than any similar regions of Alaska,

"And, Whereas, the region is said by the Ecological Society of America to contain a great variety of forest covering consisting of mature areas, bodies of youthful trees which have become established since the retreat of the ice which should be preserved in absolutely natural condition, and great stretches now bare that will become forested in the course of the next century,

"And, Whereas, this area presents a unique opportunity for the scientific study of glacial behavior and of resulting movements and development of flora and fauna and of certain valuable relics of ancient interglacial forests." (Proclamation establishing Glacier Bay National Monument, February 26, 1925.)

"Whereas, it appears that certain public lands, part of which are within the Tongass National Forest ... have situated thereon glaciers and geologic features of scientific interest; and

"Whereas, a portion of the aforesaid public lands ... are necessary for the proper care, management, and protection of the objects of scientific interest situated on the lands...." (Proclamation of April 18, 1939, adding lands to the Monument.)

The management plans developed by the National Park Service for the Glacier Bay National Monument did not anticipate, and apparently have not been adequate to deal with, the increased visitor and vessel traffic and their use of the marine environment in the 1970's. Title 36 of the Code of Federal Regulations, under which the National Park Service operates, contains a section requiring any commercial business conducted or operating within the boundaries of Service area to have a permit issued by the Service. The cruise ship industry companies have not as yet been placed under a permit system. However, it is the intent of the Service to establish a regular system in the future. All other commercial ventures operating on lands and waters of the Monument are under contract or permit. Fishing vessel activity is unregulated although the take of Pacific halibut, (_Hippoglossus stenolepis_) is regulated by the International Pacific Halibut Commission, and the take of salmon and other finfish and shellfish is regulated by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG). The need for additional resource/use plans and regulatory programs is recognized by the National Park Service.

The NPS funded field studies of humpback whales by the Juraszs in 1976-1979, analysis of some of the Juraszs' data, and Hale's and Rice's (of the NPS Alaska area office) report, "The Glacier Bay Marine Ecosystem--A Conceptual, Ecological Model" completed in April 1979.

The movement of humpback whales in 1978 from Glacier Bay to surrounding waters and the suggestion by the Juraszs' field observations, that there may be a cause and effect relationship between vessel activity and the whales' movement, led the NPS to restrict some vessel activities in the 1979 season, and to seek Endangered Species Act Section 7 consultations with the National Marine Fisheries Service in August 1979. The Section 7 consultations were not completed at the beginning of the meeting. Based in part upon NMFS's recommendations, the NPS will consider various future management alternatives. Restrictions imposed in 1979 were temporary (emergency closure authority under Title 36 C.F.R.). Any regulations imposed for 1980 cannot be under emergency closure authority (unless an emergency does arise which was unforeseen in setting up regulatory systems). Regulations which can be foreseen at this time as being necessary would have to proceed through the normal Federal Register publication process. Enforcement of all Federal laws and regulations within Glacier Bay is considered to be the responsibility of the NPS.

The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has overall responsibility, under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972, for the conservation and protection of all whales including humpback whales. The National Marine Fisheries Service in cooperation with the Juraszs has conducted censuses of humpback whales in southeast Alaskan waters in 1975 and 1976, used radio tags to follow individual whales in Alaskan waters in 1976-78, maintains a catalogue of humpback whale photographs and has developed a computerized retrieval photo-identification system. No research was conducted by NMFS in 1979. NMFS enforcement of laws and regulations is conducted by a few people responsible for large areas in southeast Alaska. A contract with the State of Alaska until August 1, 1979, provided a broader presence of enforcement personnel. That contract was not renewed. The NMFS is now fully responsible for enforcement activities relating to humpback whales except in areas such as Glacier Bay where the responsibility is shared.

[Footnote 6: This summary is based on information presented at the meeting by National Park Service and National Marine Fisheries Service Personnel.]

ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT ACTIONS

Based on available information, vessel activity may have been a factor contributing to the movement of whales from Glacier Bay in 1978 and 1979. Alternatives available to manage vessel traffic (assuming increased traffic has had or will have an adverse effect on humpback whales) include:

1. Total closure of Glacier Bay to all vessels.

2. Closure to all vessels during the whale season.

3. Closure to all vessels during part of the whale season.

4. Total closure to all but certain classes of vessels--e.g., cruise vessels charter vessels fishing vessels

5. Seasonal closure to all but certain classes of vessels--e.g., cruise vessels charter vessels fishing vessels

6. Partial season closure to all but certain classes of vessels--e.g. cruise vessels charter vessels fishing vessels

7. Alternatives 4, 5, or 6 with limitations on total numbers of vessels of various classes given access

8. Alternatives 4, 5, 6 or 7 with restrictions applying only to certain areas of the Bay

9. Establishment of a ceiling for all vessels or certain classes of vessels during all or part of the whale season

10. No restrictions on access but certain activities prohibited or limited to certain areas or vessel classes--e.g.: establish traffic lanes and permit "deliberate" whale-watching only by a few trained and licensed charter-boat operators.

11. No restrictions.

IDENTIFYING AND SELECTING THE MOST APPROPRIATE RESEARCH/MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

Factors that should be considered in making research/management decisions include (1) that the humpback whale is an endangered species; (2) that there are statutory requirements to protect the whales and their habitats; (3) that the cause of the present problem is uncertain; (4) that the purpose of the Monument is to provide for educational, recreational, and scientific experiences; and (5) that limiting access or restricting or closing the Monument to some or all vessel activity could affect commercial and private enterprises, including fishing.

Additionally, there are a number of types and possible consequences of decision errors that should also be considered--e.g.,

1. If Glacier Bay is a critical habitat, and if the movement of humpbacks is in response to whale watching vessels, pleasure boats, cruise vessels, etc., and if the movement is or will be irreversible; then the humpback whale population will be adversely impacted (e.g., carrying capacity reduced) if no action is taken.

2. If Glacier Bay is not a critical habitat, and if movement is due to whale watching vessels, etc., and it is or will be irreversible; then only the quality of visitor experience/value of monument is decreased if no action is taken. The impact on the population of humpbacks is not critical so long as suitable habitat is available elsewhere. However, the NPS mandate established in the 1916 Act still would not be fulfilled.

3. If all, or a specific type of, vessel traffic is prohibited or regulated, and the movement from the Bay is not caused, directly or indirectly by such traffic; then there will be decreased opportunity for human activity within the Bay, and increased economic impacts on fishermen and commercial operators that may have been unnecessarily restricted.

The optimal short-term research/management strategy would minimize the risks associated with the kinds of errors discussed above, and include actions such as the following:

1) by early 1980, compile and complete the analysis and evaluation of all existing and relevant data;

2) based upon the evaluation of the best available data, promulgate temporary (one season) whale watching regulations and/or restrict access by all or certain classes of vessels or the number, frequency, or duration of visits of all or certain classes of vessels to certain areas at certain times of the year, as may be appropriate;

3) continue and, if appropriate expand, surveys of whale/vessel numbers, distribution, movements, behavior and interactions in and outside Glacier Bay;

4) identify and initiate additional research that is needed to identify and mitigate the cause or causes of the observed humpback whale movement from the Bay, e.g.,

a. characterize the acoustical environment of Glacier Bay and other areas in which humpbacks occur;

b. characterize the sounds generated by various classes of vessels and aircraft;

c. design and conduct sound playback experiments to test hypotheses concerning the possible effects of vessel activities on humpback whale movements and behavior; and

d. assess and monitor the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of Glacier Bay, especially the distribution and abundance of prey species upon which humpback whales feed.

The optimal long-range research/management strategy would include: