Chapter 6

6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest emporium.

When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we shall make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the honour and profit of the King and Kingdom of England.

THE FIFTH ESSAY.

_Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces_.

SINCE the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in London is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London would be the two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. To which is answered, that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, that province having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is the two-thirds), nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often heard. For suppose Amsterdam hath—as we have elsewhere noted—187,000, the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, one with another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten smallest at 6,000 each 60,000—in all, the twenty-eight walled cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages 193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land; whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without the cities and market-towns.

Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven heads in each—the medium between MM. Auzout’s and Grant’s reckonings—the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we reckon that there dies one out of thirty-four—the medium between thirty and thirty-seven above mentioned—the total of the people would be thirty-four times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between which number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding 800,000, the supposed number of Holland.

Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of the world, I never found that in any country—not in China itself—there was more than one man to every English acre of land: many territories passing for well-peopled where there is but one man for ten such acres. I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia (_alias_ North Holland) upon the best maps, that it contained but as many such acres as London doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I therefore venture to pronounce (till better informed) that the people of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least above two-thirds of the same, which is enough to disable the objection above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up London from 696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given to that purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, set forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the same to be but 85,000.

The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also saith—

1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, 2,000,000 souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and other trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that in Amsterdam there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth against the register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 houses and above 80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the register alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London, with a tenth part of the same to be of families more than houses; and probably will except against the register of 1,163 houses to be in all England, that number giving, at six and one-third heads to each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we remark as follows, viz.:—

1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, wherefore London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of all Holland by 46,000.

2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times 488,000; and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, there must die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks that there dies one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in every house of Paris mentioned in the register, but there must be scarce two heads in every house of England, all which we think fit to be reconsidered.

I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, that these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for that it is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the King of England’s subjects in Europe are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that the subjects of the seven united provinces are 4,000,000. To which we answer that the subjects of the said seven provinces are, by this objector’s own showing, but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been proved, and we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 people, and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all 9,800,000; whereas by the objector’s doctrine, if the seven provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England’s territories should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon.

To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that they would prove—

1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and cities thereof, hath more people than London alone.

2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better housing, and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that King James the Second came to the empire thereof.

OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.

_Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King_, _Lancaster Herald_, _and forming part of_ “_An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People gainers in the Balance of Trade_.” _Published in 1699_.

THE writer of these papers has seen the natural and political observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The calculations therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon than anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right course to form his several schemes about the numbers of the people, for besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those acts, and the produce in many of the respective polls, going everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: besides which pains, he has made observations of the very facts in particular towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and conclude more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked further into this mystery than any other person.

With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before us.

He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people (which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, at which time the world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people.

From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of increase—

That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ’s time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ’s birth about 400,000.

That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain somewhat above 2,000,000.

That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past.

That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there will be then about three acres and a half per head.

That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may have been and in all probability may be, according to the following scheme:—

Anno Domini. Number of people. Increase every hundred years. 1300 2,800,000 1400 3,300,000 440,000. 1500 3,840,000 540,000. 1600 4,620,000 780,000. 1700 5,500,000 880,000. 1800 6,420,000 920,000. 1900 7,350,000 930,000. 2000 8,280,000 930,000. 2100 9,205,000 925,000. 2200 10,115,000 910,000. 2300 11,000,000 885,000.

Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls per annum.

But whereas the yearly births of the kingdom are 190,000 souls. about 1 in 28.95, or And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls. Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls. It is to be noted— Per ann. 1. That the allowance for 4,000 plagues and great mortalities may come to at a medium 2. Foreign or civil wars at a 3,500 medium 3. The sea constantly employing 2,500 about 40,000, may precipitate the death of about 4. The plantations (over and 1,000 above the accession of foreigners) may carry away 11,000 per annum. Whereby the net annual increase may be but 9,000 souls.

That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned abatements.

The country increases annually by procreation 20,000 souls. The cities and towns, exclusive of London, by 2,000 souls. procreation But London and the bills of mortality decrease 2,000 souls. annually

So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the kingdom’s net increase.

Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, and the collectors’ returns thereupon, and by the parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, and burials are according to the following scheme

_Vide_ Scheme A.

Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there are 71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 marriages in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, producing 376 children.

Whereby it follows—

1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great towns are more prolific than the country.

2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as those in the country, London would increase in people much faster _pro rata_ than the country.

3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer children than the country marriages seem to be—

(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries.

(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance.

(3) From a greater intentness on business.

(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke.

(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives.

(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the country.

He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, to bear the following proportions in relation to males and females, and other distinctions of the people, viz.:—

SCHEME A.

People. Annual Producing Marriages. children In all. each 530,000 London and 1 in 106 5,000 4.0 bills of mortality 870,000 The cities 1 in 128 6,800 4.5 and market towns 4,100,000 The 1 in 141 29,200 4.8 villages and hamlets 5,500,000 1 in 134 41,000 4.64

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Annual Births. Annual Burials. In all. In all. London and 1 in 26½ 20,000 1 in 24.1 22,000 bills of mortality The cities 1 in 28½ 30,600 1 in 30.4 28,600 and market towns The 1 in 29.4 29,200 1 in 34.4 119,400 villages and hamlets 1 in 28.95 190,000 1 in 32.35 170,000

_Vide_ Scheme B.

So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and the number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000.

SCHEME B.

Males. Males. Females. Both. Females. In London 10 to 13 230,000 300,000 530,000 and bills of mortality In the 8 to 9 410,000 460,000 870,000 other cities and market- towns In the 100 to 99 2,060,000 2,040,000 4,100,000 villages and hamlets 27 to 28 2,700,000 2,800,000 5,500,000

_That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments to bear these proportions_.

People. Males. Females. Husbands and 34½% 1,900,000 950,000 950,000 wives at above Widowers at 1½% 90,000 90,000 above Widows at about 4½% 240,000 240,000 Children at 45% 2,500,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 above Servants at 10½% 560,000 260,000 300,000 about Sojourners and 4% 210,000 100,000 110,000 single persons 100% 5,500,000 2,700,000 2,800,000

_And that the different proportions in each of the said articles between London_, _the great towns_, _and the villages_, _may the better appear_, _he has formed the following scheme_:—

London and Bills of The other Cities and The Villages and Mortality. Souls. great Towns. Souls. Hamlets. Souls. Husbands and Wives 37% 196,100 36% 313,200 34% 1,394,000 Widowers 2% 10,600 2% 17,400 1½% 61,500 Widows 7% 37,100 6% 52,200 4½% 184,500 Children 33% 174,900 40% 348,000 47% 1,927,000 Servants 13% 68,900 11% 95,700 10% 410,000 Sojourners 8% 42,400 5% 43,500 3% 123,000 100% 530,000 100% 870,000 100% 4,100,000

SCHEME B (_continued_).

_He further observes_, _supposing the people to be 5,500,000_, _that the yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000_, _and that the several ages of the people may be as follows_:

In all. Males. Females. Those under 1 years old 170,000 88,500 81,500 Those under 5 years old 820,000 413,300 406,700 Those under 10 years old 1,520,000 762,900 757,100 Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 1,578,000 1,682,000 Those above 21 years old 2,700,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 Those above 25 years old 2,400,000 1,152,000 1,248,000 Those above 60 years old 600,000 270,000 330,000 Those under 16 years old 2,240,000 Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 Total of the people 5,500,000

That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof those under twenty-five years are 25½ per cent., and those above twenty-five years are 2½ per cent.

That the maidens are about 28½ per cent. of the whole.

Whereof those under 25 years are 26½ per cent.

And those above 25 years are 2 per cent.

That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one with another, 27 years and a half.

That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living under 20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the males are under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years.

That the ages of the people, according to their several distinctions, are as follows, viz.:—

_Vide_ Scheme C.

Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of the income and expense of the several families of England, calculated for the year 1688.

SCHEME C.

At a Medium The husbands 43 years 17¼ per cent., 742 years. are aged apiece, which, makes at The wives 40 17¼ 690 The widowers 56 1½ 84 The widows 60 4½ 270 The children 12 45 540 The servants 27 10½ 284 The sojourners 35 4 140 At a medium 27½ 100 2,750

_Vide_ Scheme D.

Mr. King’s modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by some little operations of our own upon the same subject, and compared them with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure in the like studies.

What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in that matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that supposing the inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300, 2,860,000 heads, by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all writers they may probably be about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but if they were A.D. 1300 either less or more, the case must proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for plagues, great mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, they seem very reasonable, and not well to be controverted.

Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though the text deserves much a better comment.

SCHEME D.—A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL FAMILIES OF ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR 1688. {148}

Number of Families. RANKS, DEGREES, Heads per Family. TITLES, AND QUALIFICATIONS. 160 Temporal Lords 40 26 Spiritual Lords 20 800 Baronets 16 600 Knights 13 3,000 Esquires 10 12,000 Gentlemen 8 5,000 Persons in greater 8 offices and places 5,000 Persons in lesser 6 offices and places 2,000 Eminent merchants and 8 traders by sea 8,000 Lesser merchants and 6 traders by sea 10,000 Persons in the law 7 2,000 Eminent clergymen 6 8,000 Lesser clergymen 5 40,000 Freeholders of the 7 better sort 120,000 Freeholders of the 5½ lesser sort 150,000 Farmers 5 15,000 Persons in liberal 5 arts and sciences 50,000 Shopkeepers and 4½ tradesmen 60,000 Artisans and 4 handicrafts 5,000 Naval officers 4 4,000 Military officers 4 500,586 5⅓ 50,000 Common seamen 3 364,000 Labouring people and 3½ out-servants 400,000 Cottagers and paupers 3¼ 35,000 Common soldiers 2 849,000 Vagrants, as gipsies, 3¼ thieves, beggars, &c. 500,586 Increasing the wealth 5⅓ of the kingdom 849,000 Decreasing the wealth 3¼ of the kingdom 1,349,586 Net totals 4 1/13

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