Chapter 4

1. First, from the Table C it appears, 1. That the housing of Dublin is such, as that there are not five hearths in each house one with another, but nearer five than four.

2. That in St. Warburgh’s parish are near six hearths to a house. In St. John’s five. In St. Michael’s above five. In St. Nicholas Within above six. In Christ Church above seven. In St. James’s and St. Katherine’s, and in St. Michan’s, not four. In St. Kevin’s about four.

3. That in St. James’s, St. Michan’s, St. Bride’s, St. Warburgh’s, St. Andrew’s, St. Michael’s, and St. Patrick’s, all the christenings were but 550, and the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that in the rest of the parishes the christenings were five, and the burials seven, viz., as 457 to 634. Now whether the cause of this difference was negligence in accounts, or the greaterness of the families, &c., is worth inquiring.

4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these parishes ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some most births, and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding the rest in two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none in all four. Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the plurality of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the other.

5. The London observations reckon eight heads in each family, according to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000 families of Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of which but about one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the royal regiment.

6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a principle, the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births and burials is impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and calculations to deduce the number of people from the births and burials, may be ingenious, but very preposterous.

7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten men in one week (at the charge of about £5 surveying eight families in an hour) may directly, and without algebra, make an account of the whole people, expressing their several ages, sex, marriages, title, trade, religion, &c., and those who survey the hearths, or the constables or the parish clerks (may, if required) do the same ex officio, and without other charge, by the command of the chief governor, the diocesan, or the mayor.

8. The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several alterations and improvements, and £8 or £10 per annum surcharge, would make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and become an excellent instrument of Government. To which purpose the forms for weekly, quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly recommended, viz.

TABLE A—YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR

LONDON DUBLIN LONDON A.D. Burials Births Burials Births Male Female Male Female 1680 21,053 12,747 1,826 1,096 11,039 10,044 6,543 6,041 1679 21,730 12,288 1,397 1,061 11,154 10,576 6,247 6,041 1678 20,678 12,601 1,401 1,045 10,681 9,977 6,568 6,033 1674 21,201 11,851 2,106 942 11,000 10,196 6,113 5,738 1672 18,230 12,563 1,436 987 9,560 8,070 6,443 6,120 1668 17,278 11,633 1,699 1,026 9,111 8,167 6,073 5,566 120,170 73,683 9,865 6,157 62,545 57,030 37,992 35,697 The medium or 6th part whereof is part whereof is 20,028 12,280 1,644 1,026 10,424 9,505 6,332 5,949

TABLE B.—DUBLIN.

A.D. Burials. Births. In Ternaries of Years 1666 1,480 952 4,821 2,979 1667 1,642 1,001 1668 1,699 1,026 1669 1,666 1,000 5,353 3,070 1670 1,713 1,067 1671 1,974 1,003 1672 1,436 967 5,073 2,842 1673 1,531 933 1674 2,106 942 1675 1,578 823 4,328 2,672 1676 1,391 952 1677 1,359 897 1678 1,401 1,045 4,624 3,202 1679 1,397 1,061 1680 1,826 1,096 24,199 14,765 24,199 14,765 The medium or 15th part whereof is 1,613 984 1,613 984

TABLE C.

THE A.D. 1671. A.D., 1670–71–72 at a PARISHES OF medium DUBLIN Families Hearths Births Burials St. 661 2,399 161 290 Katherine’s and St. James’s St. 490 2,348 207 262 Nicholas Without St. 656 2,301 127 221 Michan’s St. 483 2,123 108 178 Andrew’s with Donnybrook St. 416 1,989 70 100 Bridget’s St. John’s 244 1,337 70 138 St. 267 1,650 54 103 Warburgh’s St. 216 1,081 53 121 Audaen’s St. 140 793 44 59 Michael’s St. Kevin’s 106 433 64 133 St. 93 614 28 34 Nicholas Within St. 52 255 21 44 Patrick’s Liberties Christ 26 197 — 1 Church and Trinity College, per estimate 3,850 17,500 1,013 1,696 Houses 150 550 built between 1671 and 1681, per estimate 4,000 18,150

A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN, Ending the XXX day of XXX 1681. {75}

PARISHES’ NAMES. Births Males Females Burials Under 16 Plague Small Pox Measles Spotted years old Fever St. Katharine’s and St. James’s St. Nicholas Without St. Michan’s St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook St. Bridget’s St. John’s St. Warburgh’s St. Audaen’s St. Michael’s St. Kevin’s St. Nicholas Within St. Patrick’s Liberties Christ Church and Trinity College Totals

A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY, Beginning XXX and ending XXX for the City of DUBLIN {76}

PARISHES’ NAMES. Births 1. Marriages 2. Buried under 16 Buried above 60 Measles, Consumption, Fever, Aged above 70 Infants under 2 All other years olds years old Spotted Fever, Dropsy, Gout, Pleurisy, years old years old Casualties Small Pox, Stone Quinsy, Sudden Plague Death St. Katharine’s and St. James’s St. Nicholas Without St. Michan’s St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook St. Bridget’s St. John’s St. Warburgh’s St. Audaen’s St. Michael’s St. Kevin’s St. Nicholas Within St. Patrick’s Liberties Christ Church and Trinity College Totals

* * * * *

AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR, Ending the 24th of March, 1681. {77}

PARISHES’ NAMES. Number of Whereof Married Persons of Protestants Papists Of all other Births Burials Marriages person Persons religions Males Females Under 16 Above 60 of above 16 years old years old years old St. Katharine’s and St. James’s St. Nicholas Without St. Michan’s St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook St. Bridget’s St. John’s St. Warburgh’s St. Audaen’s St. Michael’s St. Kevin’s St. Nicholas Within St. Patrick’s Liberties Christ Church and Trinity College Totals

CASUALTIES AND DISEASES.

Aged above 70 years Epilepsy and planet Abortive and still-born Fever and ague Childbed women Pleurisy Convulsion Quinsy Teeth Executed, murdered, drowned Worms Plague and spotted fever Gout and sciatica Griping of the guts Stone Scouring, vomiting bleeding Palsy Small pox Consumption and French pox Measles Dropsy and tympany Neither of all the other sorts Rickets and livergrown Headache and megrim

A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER.

WHEREAS you complain that these observations make no sufficient bulk, I could answer you that I wish the bulk of all books were less; but do nevertheless comply with you in adding what follows, viz.:

1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in them above 600 families, and others under thirty.

2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 families; the middling parishes of London containing 120 families; according to which rate there should be about thirty-three parishes in Dublin.

3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families in London, which is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and yet the births and burials of London are but twelve times those of Dublin, which shows that the inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and straitened in their housing than those of London; and consequently that to increase the buildings of Dublin will make that city more conformable to London.

4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the present forms of the Dublin bills of mortality, according to what hath been here recommended—viz.:

1. We give the distinctions of males and females in the births only; for that the burials must, at one time or another, be in the same proportion with the births.

2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that notice be taken in the burials of what numbers die above sixty and seventy, and what under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing good uses to be made of that distinction.

3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to about twenty-four, being such as may be discerned by common sense, and without art, conceiving that more will but perplex and imbroil the account. And in the quarterly bills we reduce the diseases to three heads—viz., contagious, acute, and chronical, applying this distinction to parishes, in order to know how the different situation, soil, and way of living in each parish doth dispose men to each of the said three species; and in the weekly bills we take notice not only of the plague, but of the other contagious diseases in each parish, that strangers and fearful persons may thereby know how to dispose of themselves.

4. We mention the number of the people, as the fundamental term in all our proportions; and without which all the rest will be almost fruitless.

5. We mention the number of marriages made in every quarter, and in every year, as also the proportion which married persons bear to the whole, expecting in such observations to read the improvement of the nation.

6. As for religions, we reduce them to three—viz.: (1) those who have the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are governed by the laws of their country; (3) those who rely respectively upon their own private judgments. Now, whether these distinctions should be taken notice of or not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many reasons _pro_ and _con_ for the same; and, therefore, although we have mentioned it as a matter fit to be considered, yet we humbly leave it to authority.

TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC,

_Concerning the People_, _Housing_, _Hospitals_, _&c._, _of London and Paris_.

TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY.

I DO presume, in a very small paper, to show your Majesty that your City of London seems more considerable than the two best cities of the French monarchy, and for aught I can find, greater than any other of the universe, which because I can say without flattery, and by such demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray your Majesty to accept from

Your Majesty’s

Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject, WILLIAM PETTY.

AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC

_Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing than the cities of Paris and Rouen put together_, _and is also more considerable in several other respects_.

1. THE medium of the burials at London in the three last years—viz., 1683, 1684, and 1685, wherein there was no extraordinary sickness, and wherein the christenings do correspond in their ordinary proportions with the burials and christenings of each year one with another, was 22,337, and the like medium of burials for the three last Paris bills we could procure—viz., for the years 1682, 1683, and 1684 (whereof the last as appears by the christenings to have been very sickly), is 19,887.

2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good estimate of its trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, and the city of Dublin in Ireland appears to have more chimneys than Bristol, and consequently more people, and the burials in Dublin were, A.D. 1682 (being a sickly year) but 2,263.

3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added to the burials of Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes but 22,150, whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 22,337, or as about 6 to 7.

4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L’Hôtel Dieu in Paris (being above 3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or any part thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris burials aforementioned, then our assertion will be stronger, and more proportionable to what follows concerning the housing of those cities, viz.:

5. There were burnt at London, A.D. 1666, above 13,000 houses, which being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of houses in the said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary burials of London have increased between the years 1666 and 1686, above one-third the total of the houses at London, A.D. 1686, must be about 87,000, which A.D. 1682, appeared by account to have been 84,000.

6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late geographical dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in the world, doth reckon but 50,000 houses in the same, and other authors and knowing men much less; nor are there full 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin, so as if the 50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin were added together, the total is but 57,000 houses, whereas those of London are 87,000 as aforesaid, or as 6 to 9.

7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, the common sense of all men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris and Rouen put together.

8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants of London and Paris by law-suits (or _La chicane_) I only say that the courts of London extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven millions of people, whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far. Moreover, there is no palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the number and wealth of lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two Temples, Lincoln’s Inn, Gray’s Inn, Doctors’ Commons, and the seven other inns in which are chimneys, which are to be seen at London, besides many lodgings, halls, and offices, relating to the same.

9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we say,

(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as about 6 to 7, and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the people do not live at London so close and crowded as at Paris, but can afford themselves more room and liberty.

(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more desirable than those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die two out of fifteen, whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 out of 16, and yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the hospitals at London, and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion die out of the Paris hospitals which are of the same kind; that is to say, the number of those at London, who choose to lie sick in hospitals rather than in their own houses, are to the like people of Paris as one to twenty; which shows the greater poverty or want of means in the people of Paris than those of London.

(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of sixteen out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in the best of Paris, to say nothing of L’Hôtel Dieu, that either the physicians and chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris, or that the air of London is more wholesome.

10. As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris were the greatest we need say no more in behalf of London. As for Pekin in China, we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything in the description of the two late voyages of the Chinese emperor from that city into East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and 1683, which can make us recant what we have said concerning London. As for Delhi and Agra, belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing against our position, but much to show the vast numbers which attend that emperor in his business and pleasures.

11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand Cairo; as for Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavoured to show the greatness of that city, and the greatness of the plague which raged in it, that there died 1,500 per diem, without other circumstances; to which we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200 per diem, and it hath been well proved that the Plague of London never carried away above one-fifth of the people, whereas it is commonly believed that in Constantinople, and other eastern cities, and even in Italy and Spain, that the plague takes away two-fifths, one half, or more; wherefore where 1,200 is but one-fifth of the people it is probable that the number was greater, than where 1,500 was two-fifths or one half, &c.

12. As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died in ten weeks, or 1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo the plague comes and goes away suddenly, and that the plague takes away two or three-fifths parts of the people as aforesaid; so as 73,000 was probably the number of those that died of the plague in one whole year at Grand Cairo, whereas at London, A.D. 1665, 97,000 were brought to account to have died in that year. Wherefore it is certain, that that city wherein 97,000 was but one-fifth of the people, the number was greater than where 73,000 was two-fifths or the half.

We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing, shipping, and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for aught yet appears, is more considerable than any other city in the universe, which was propounded to be proved.

AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC,

_Tending to prove that in the hospital called L’Hôtel Dieu at Paris_, _there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation_.

1. IT appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital of La Charité 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the said year 338, which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and that in the same year there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 21,491, and that there died out of that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, so as about half the said 5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for want of as good usage and accommodation as might have been had at La Charité.

2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charité 3,118, of which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in the same year there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635, of which there died 8,397; and in both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very different in their degrees of mortality) there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491—in all 50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063; and there died out of the same in the said two years, 5,630 and 8,397—in all 14,027, the medium whereof is 7,013.

3. There entered in the said years into La Charité 2,647 and 3,118, in all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there died 338 and 452, in all 790, the medium whereof is 395.

4. Now, if there died out of L’Hôtel Dieu 7,013 per annum, and that the proportion of those that died out of L’Hôtel Dieu is double to those that died out of La Charité (as by the above numbers it appears to be near thereabouts), then it follows that half the said numbers of 7,013, being 3,506, did not die by natural necessity, but by the evil administration of that hospital.

5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and rather to be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but considering the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more reconciled to the belief of it, viz.:—

(_a_.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent out and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of the said hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out and cured out of St. Thomas’s Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209—that is to say, there were cured in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both hospitals 461, and consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which number the 461 buried is less than an eighth part; whereas at La Charité the part that died was more than an eighth part; which shows that out of the most poor and wretched hospitals of London there died fewer in proportion than out of the best in Paris.

(_b_.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La Charité at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables, making in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew’s and St. Thomas’s Hospitals, London, there died at a medium but 461, of which Les Incurables are part; which shows that although there be more people in London than in Paris, yet there went at London not so many people to hospitals as there did at Paris, although the poorest hospitals at London were better than the best at Paris; which shows that the poorest people at London have better accommodation in their own houses than the best hospital of Paris affordeth.