Chapter 9

A set of monthly isothermal charts of the north polar area, based on all available observations, has been prepared by H. Mohn and published in the volume on Meteorology of the Nansen expedition. In the winter months there are three cold poles, in Siberia, in Greenland and at the pole itself. In January the mean temperatures at these three cold poles are -49°, -40° and -40° respectively. The Siberian cold pole becomes a maximum of temperature during the summer, but the Greenland and polar minima remain throughout the year. In July the temperature distribution shows considerable uniformity; the gradients are relatively weak. A large area in the interior of Greenland, and one of about equal extent around the pole, are within the isotherm of 32°. For the year a large area around the pole is enclosed by the isotherm of -4°, with an isotherm of the same value in the interior of Greenland, but a local area of -7.6° is noted in Greenland, and one of -11.2° is centred at lat. 80° N. and long. 170° E.

The north polar chart of annual range of temperature shows a maximum range of about 120° in Siberia; of 80° in North America; of 75.6° at the North Pole, and of 72° in Greenland. The North Pole obviously has a continental climate. The minimum ranges are on the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The mean annual isanomalies show that the interior of Greenland has a negative anomaly in all months. The Norwegian sea area is 45° too warm in January and February. Siberia has +10.8° in summer, and -45° in January. Between Bering Strait and the pole there is a negative anomaly in all months. The influence of the Gulf Stream drift is clearly seen on the chart, as it is also on that of mean annual ranges.

For the North Pole Mohn gives the following results, obtained by graphic methods:--

_Mean Temperatures at the North Pole._

+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+ | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May. | June. | +--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+ | -41.8° | -41.8° | -31.0° | -18.4° | 8.6° | 28.4° | +--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+

+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+-------+ | July. | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Year. | +--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+-------+ | 30.2° | 26.6° | 8.6° | -11.2° | -27.4° | -36.4° | -8.9° | +--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+-------+

It appears that the region about the North Pole is the coldest place in the northern hemisphere for the mean of the year, and that the interior ice desert of Greenland, together with the inner polar area, are together the coldest parts of the northern hemisphere in July. In January, however, Verkhoyansk, in north-eastern Siberia, just within the Arctic circle, has a mean temperature of about -60°, while the inner polar area and the northern interior of Greenland have only -40°. Thus far no minima as low as those of north-eastern Siberia have been recorded in the Arctic.

For the Antarctic our knowledge is still very fragmentary, and relates chiefly to the summer months. Hann has determined the mean temperatures of the higher southern latitudes as follows:--[6]

_Mean Temperatures of High Southern Latitudes._

S. Lat. 50° 60° 70° 80° Mean Annual 41.9 28.4 11.3 -3.6 January 46.9 37.8 30.6 20.3 July 37.2 18.3 -8.0 -24.7

From lat. 70° S. polewards, J. Hann finds that the southern hemisphere is colder than the northern. Antarctic summers are decidedly cold. The mean annual temperatures experienced have been in the vicinity of 10°, and the minima of an ordinary antarctic winter go down to -40° and below, but so far no minima of the severest Siberian intensity have been noted. The maxima have varied between 35° and 50°.

The temperatures at the South Pole itself furnish an interesting subject for speculation. It is likely that near the South Pole will prove to be the coldest point on the earth's surface for the year, as the distribution of insolation would imply, and as the conditions of land and ice and snow there would suggest. The lowest winter and summer temperatures in the southern hemisphere will almost certainly be found in the immediate vicinity of the pole. It must not be supposed that the isotherms in the antarctic region run parallel with the latitude lines. They bend polewards and equatorwards at different meridians, although much less so than in the Arctic.

The annual march of temperature in the north polar zone, for which we have the best comparable data, is peculiar in having a much-retarded minimum in February or even in March--the result of the long, cold winter. The temperature rises rapidly towards summer, and reaches a maximum in July. Autumn is warmer than spring.

The continents do not penetrate far enough into the arctic zone to develop a pure continental climate in the highest latitudes. Verkhoyansk, in lat. 67° 6' N., furnishes an excellent example of an exaggerated continental type for the margin of the zone, with an annual range of 120°. One-third as large a range is found on Novaya Zemlya. Polar climate as a whole has large annual and small diurnal ranges, but sudden changes of wind may cause marked irregular temperature changes within twenty-four hours, especially in winter. The smaller ranges are associated with greater cloudiness, and vice versa. The mean diurnal variability is very small in summer, and reaches its maximum in winter, about 7° in February, according to Mohn.

_Pressure and Winds._--Owing to the more symmetrical distribution of land and water in the southern than in the northern polar area, the pressures and winds have a simpler arrangement in the former, and may be first considered. The rapid southward decrease of pressure, which is so marked a feature of the higher latitudes of the southern hemisphere on the isobaric charts of the world, does not continue all the way to the South Pole. Nor do the prevailing westerly winds, constituting the "circumpolar whirl," which are so well developed over the southern portions of the southern hemisphere oceans, blow all the way home to the South Pole. The steep poleward pressure gradients of these southern oceans end in a trough of low pressure, girdling the earth at about the Antarctic circle. From here the pressure increases again towards the South Pole, where a permanent inner polar anticyclonic area is found, with outflowing winds deflected by the earth's rotation into easterly and south-easterly directions. These easterly winds have been observed by the recent expeditions which have penetrated far enough south to cross the low-pressure trough. The limits between the prevailing westerlies and the outflowing winds from the pole ("easterlies") vary with the longitude and migrate with the seasons. The change in passing from one wind system to the other is easily observed. This south polar anticyclone, with its surrounding low-pressure girdle, migrates with the season, the centre apparently shifting polewards in summer and towards the eastern hemisphere in winter. The outflowing winds from the polar anticyclones sweep down across the inland ice. Under certain topographic conditions, descending across mountain ranges, as in the case of the Admiralty Range in Victoria Land, these winds may develop high velocity and take on typical _föhn_ characteristics, raising the temperature to an unusually high degree. _Föhn_ winds are also known on both coasts of Greenland, when a passing cyclonic depression draws the air down from the icy interior. These Greenland _föhn_ winds are important climatic elements, for they blow down warm and dry, raising the temperature even 30° or 40° above the winter mean, and melting the snow.

In the Arctic area the wind systems are less clearly defined and the pressure distribution is much less regular, on account of the irregular distribution of land and water. The isobaric charts published in the report of the Nansen expedition show that the North Atlantic low-pressure area is more or less well developed in all months. Except in June, when it lies over southern Greenland, this tongue-shaped trough of low pressure lies in Davis strait, to the south-west or west of Iceland, and over the Norwegian Sea. In winter it greatly extends its limits farther east into the inner Arctic Ocean, to the north of Russia and Siberia. The Pacific minimum of pressure is found south of Bering Strait and in Alaska. Between these two regions of lower pressure the divide extends from North America to eastern Siberia. This divide has been called by Supan the "Arktische Wind-scheide." The pressure gradients are steepest in winter. At the pole itself pressure seems to be highest in April and lowest from June to September. The annual range is only about 0.20 in.

The prevailing westerlies, which in the high southern latitudes are so symmetrically developed, are interfered with to such an extent by the varying pressure controls over the northern continents and oceans in summer and winter that they are often hardly recognizable on the wind maps. The isobaric and wind charts show that on the whole the winds blow out from the inner polar basin, especially in winter and spring.

_Rain and Snow._--Rainfall on the whole decreases steadily from equator to poles. The amount of precipitation must of necessity be comparatively slight in the polar zones, chiefly because of the small capacity of the air for water vapour at the low temperatures there prevailing; partly also because of the decrease, or absence, of local convectional storms and thunder-showers. Locally, under exceptional conditions, as in the case of the western coast of Norway, the rainfall is a good deal heavier. Even cyclonic storms cannot yield much precipitation. The extended snow and ice fields tend to give an exaggerated idea of the actual amount of precipitation. It must be remembered, however, that evaporation is slow at low temperatures, and melting is not excessive. Hence the polar store of fallen snow is well preserved: interior snowfields, ice sheets and glaciers are produced.

The commonest form of precipitation is naturally snow, the summer limit of which, in the northern hemisphere, is near the Arctic circle, with the exception of Norway. So far as exploration has yet gone into the highest latitudes, rain falls in summer, and it is doubtful whether there are places where _all_ the precipitation falls as snow. The snow of the polar regions is characteristically fine and dry. At low polar temperatures flakes of snow are not found, but precipitation is in the form of ice spicules. The finest glittering ice needles often fill the air, even on clear days, and in calm weather, and gradually descending to the surface, slowly add to the depth of snow on the ground. Dry snow is also blown from the snowfields on windy days, interfering with the transparency of the air.

_Humidity, Cloudiness and Fog._--The absolute humidity must be low in polar latitudes, especially in winter, on account of the low temperatures. Relative humidity varies greatly, and very low readings have often been recorded. Cloudiness seems to decrease somewhat towards the inner polar areas, after passing the belt of high cloudiness in the higher latitudes of the temperate zones. In the marine climates of high latitudes the summer, which is the calmest season, has the maximum cloudiness; the winter, with more active wind movement, is clearer. The curve here given illustrates these conditions (fig. 14). The summer maximum is largely due to fogs, which are produced where warm, damp air is chilled by coming in contact with ice. They are also formed over open waters, as among the Faeroe Islands, for example, and open water spaces, in the midst of an ice-covered sea, are commonly detected at a distance by means of the "steam fog" which rises from them. Fogs are less common in winter, when they occur as radiation fogs, of no great thickness. The small winter cloudiness, which is reported also from the antarctic zone, corresponds with the low absolute humidity and small precipitation. The coasts and islands bathed by the warm waters of the Gulf Stream drift usually have a higher cloudiness in winter than in summer. The place of fog is in winter taken by the fine snow crystals, which often darken the air like fog when strong winds raise the dry snow from the surfaces on which it is lying. Cumulus cloud forms are rare, even in summer, and it is doubtful whether the cloud occurs at all in its typical development. Stratus is probably the commonest cloud of high latitudes, often covering the sky for days without a break. Cirrus cloud forms probably decrease polewards.

_Cyclones and Weather._--The prevailing westerlies continue up into the margins of the polar zones. Many of their cyclonic storms also continue on to the polar zones, giving sudden and irregular pressure and weather changes. The inner polar areas seem to be beyond the reach of frequent and violent cyclonic disturbance. Calms are more common; the weather is quieter and fairer; precipitation is less. Most of the observations thus far obtained from the Antarctic come from this marginal zone of great cyclonic activity, violent winds, and wet, disagreeable, inhospitable weather, and therefore do not show the features of the actual south polar climate.

During the three years of the "Fram's" drift depressions passed on all sides of her, with a preponderance on the west. The direction of progression averaged nearly due east, and the hourly velocity 27 to 34 m., which is about that in the United States. For the higher latitudes, most of the cyclones must pass by on the equatorial side of the observer, giving "backing" winds in the northern hemisphere. The main cyclonic tracks are such that the wind characteristically backs in Iceland, and still more so in Jan Mayen and on the eastern coast of Greenland, these districts lying on the north and west of the path of progression. Frightful winter storms occasionally occur along the east coast of Greenland and off Spitzbergen.

For much of the year in the polar zones the diurnal control is weak or absent. The successive spells of stormy or of fine weather are wholly cyclonically controlled. Extraordinary records of storm and gale have been brought back from the far south and the far north. Wind direction and temperature vary in relation to the position of the cyclone. During the long dreary winter night the temperature falls to very low readings. Snowstorms and gales alternate at irregular short intervals with calmer spells of more extreme cold and clearer skies. The periods of greatest cold in winter are calm. A wind from any direction will bring a rise in temperature. This probably results from the fact that the cold is the result of local radiation, and a wind interferes with these conditions by importing higher temperatures, or by mixing upper and lower strata. During the long summer days the temperature rises well above the winter mean, and under favourable conditions certain phenomena, such as the diurnal variation in wind velocity, for example, give evidence of the diurnal control. But the irregular cyclonic weather changes continue, in a modified form. There is no really warm season. Snow still falls frequently. The summer is essentially only a modified winter, especially in the Antarctic. In summer clear spells are relatively warm, and winds bring lower temperatures. In spite of its lack of high temperatures, the northern polar summer, near the margins of the zone, has many attractive qualities in its clean, pure, crisp, dry air, free from dust and impurities; its strong insolation; its slight precipitation.

_Twilight and Optical Phenomena._--The monotony and darkness of the polar night are decreased a good deal by the long twilight. Light from moon and stars, and from the aurora, also relieves the darkness. Optical phenomena of great variety, beauty and complexity are common. Solar and lunar haloes, and coronae, and mock suns and moons are often seen. Auroras seem to be less common and less brilliant in the Antarctic than in the Arctic. Sunset and sunrise colours within the polar zones are described as being extraordinarily brilliant and impressive.

_Physiological Effects._--The north polar summer, as has been pointed out, in spite of its drawbacks, is in some respects a pleasant and healthful season. But the polar night is monotonous, depressing, repelling. Sir W. E. Parry said that it would be difficult to conceive of two things which are more alike than two polar winters. An everlasting uniform snow covering; rigidity; lifelessness; silence--except for the howl of the gale or the cracking of the ice. Small wonder that the polar night has sometimes unbalanced men's minds. The first effects are often a strong desire for sleep, and indifference. Later effects have been sleeplessness and nervousness, tending in extreme cases to insanity; anaemia, digestive troubles. Extraordinarily low winter temperatures are easily borne if the air be dry and still. Zero weather seems pleasantly refreshing if clear and calm. But high relative humidity and wind--even a light breeze--give the same degree of cold a penetrating feeling of chill which may be unbearable. Large temperature ranges are endured without danger in the polar winter when the air is dry. When exposed to direct insolation the skin burns and blisters; the lips swell and crack. Thirst has been much complained of by polar explorers, and is due to the active evaporation from the warm body into the dry, relatively cold air. There is no doubt that polar air is singularly free from micro-organisms--a fact which is due chiefly to lack of communication with other parts of the world. Hence many diseases which are common in temperate zones, "colds" among them, are rare.

_Changes of Climate._

_Popular Belief in Climatic Change._--Belief in a change in the climate of one's place of residence, within a few generations, and even within the memory of living men, is widespread. Evidence is constantly being brought forward of apparent climatic variations of greater or less amount which are now taking place. Thus we have many accounts of a gradual desiccation which seems to have been going on over a large region in Central Asia during historical times. In northern Africa certain ancient historical records have been taken by different writers to indicate a general decrease of rainfall during the last 3000 or more years. In his crossing of the Sahara between Algeria and the Niger, E. F. Gautier found evidence of a former large population. A gradual desiccation of the region is therefore believed to have taken place, but to-day the equatorial rain belt seems to be again advancing farther north, giving an increased rainfall. Farther south, several lakes have been reported as decreasing in size, e.g. Chad and Victoria; and wells and springs as running dry. In the Lake Chad district A. J. B. Chevalier reports the discovery of vegetable and animal remains which indicate an invasion of the Sudan by a Saharan climate. It is often held that a steady decrease in rainfall has taken place over Greece, Syria and other eastern Mediterranean lands, resulting in a gradual and inevitable deterioration and decay of their people.

_What Meteorological Records show._--As concerns the popular impression regarding change of climate, it is clear at the start that no definite answer can be given on the basis of tradition or of general impression. The only answer of real value must be based on the records of accurate instruments, properly exposed and carefully read. When such instrumental records are carefully examined, from the time when they were first kept, which in a few cases goes back about 150 years, there is found no good evidence of any progressive change in temperature, or in the amount of rain and snow. Even when the most accurate instrumental records are available, care must be taken to interpret them correctly. Thus, if a rainfall or snowfall record of several years at some station indicates an apparent increase or decrease in the amount of precipitation, it does not necessarily follow that this means a permanent, progressive change in climate, which is to continue indefinitely. It may simply mean that there have been a few years of somewhat more precipitation, and that a period of somewhat less precipitation is to follow.

_Value of Evidence concerning Changes of Climate._--The body of facts which has been adduced as evidence of progressive changes of climate within historical times is not yet sufficiently large and complete to warrant any general correlation and study of these facts as a whole. But there are certain considerations which should be borne in mind in dealing with this evidence before any conclusions are reached. In the first place, changes in the distribution of certain fruits and cereals, and in the dates of the harvest, have often been accepted as undoubted evidence of changes in climate. Such a conclusion is by no means inevitable, for many changes in the districts of cultivation of various crops have naturally resulted from the fact that these same crops are in time found to be more profitably grown, or more easily prepared for market, in another locality. In France, C. A. Angot has made a careful compilation of the dates of the vintage from the 14th century down to the present time, and finds no support for the view so commonly held there that the climate has changed for the worse. At the present time, the average date of the grape harvest in Aubonne is exactly the same as at the close of the 16th century. After a careful study of the conditions of the date tree, from the 4th century, B.C., D. Eginitis concludes that the climate of the eastern portion of the Mediterranean basin has not changed appreciably during twenty-three centuries.

Secondly, a good many of the reports by explorers from little-known regions are contradictory. This shows the need of caution in jumping at conclusions of climatic change. An increased use of water for irrigation may cause the level of water in a lake to fall. Periodic oscillations, giving higher and then lower water, do not indicate progressive change in one direction. Many writers have seen a law in what was really a chance coincidence.

Thirdly, where a progressive desiccation seems to have taken place, it is often a question whether less rain is actually falling, or whether the inhabitants have less capacity and less energy than formerly. Is the change from a once cultivated area to a barren expanse the result of decreasing rainfall, or of the emigration of the former inhabitants to other lands? The difference between a country formerly well irrigated and fertile, and a present-day sandy, inhospitable waste may be the result of a former compulsion of the people, by a strong governing power, to till the soil and to irrigate, while now, without that compulsion, no attempt is made to keep up the work. A region of deficient rainfall, once thickly settled and prosperous, may readily become an apparently hopeless desert, even without the intervention of war and pestilence, if man allows the climate to master him. In many cases the reports of increasing dryness really concern only the decrease in the water supply from rivers and springs, and it is well known that a change in the cultivation of the soil, or in the extent of the forests, may bring about marked changes in the flow of springs and rivers without any essential change in the actual amount of rainfall.