Part 19

In 1960 the Western Joint Computer Conference was held in San Francisco, and one session was devoted to the fanciful design and use of a computer with the problem-solving capability of an intelligent man and the speed and capacity of a high-speed data-processor. It was proposed to use “tunnel-effect tetrodes” with a switching time of one ten-billionth of a second as the logic and storage elements. These would be fabricated of thin-film materials by electron beam micromachining, and 100 billion of them could be packed into a cubic inch volume. With these tiny components and new circuit modes a supercomputer could be built, stored with information, and programmed to solve what one of the participants called the most difficult problem the human being faces today—that of bargaining.

This computer has not yet been built; it won’t be for some time. But design and fabrication are moving in that direction on a number of fronts. One of these fronts is that of hardware, the components used in building up the computer circuitry. In a decade we moved from vacuum tubes to transistors to thin-film devices. Examples of shrinkage on a gross scale are shown in the use of a single ferrite core to replace some twenty conventional (relatively speaking!) components.

Memory circuits once were mechanical relays or tube circuits. Briefly they were transistorized, and then ferrite cores. Magnetic thin-film circuits have now been developed, making random-access storage almost as compact as the sequential tape reel. As circuits grow smaller the major problem is manipulating them, or even seeing them, and a sneeze can be disastrous in today’s electronics plant.

One early journalistor was the molecular circuit. Many scientists and engineers working in the field scoffed at or derided such a visionary scheme. But the industry has indeed progressed into the integrated-circuit technology—a sort of halfway point—and is now on the fringe of actual functional block techniques in which the individual components are not discernible. Electronic switching and other action at the molecular level is close to reality, and hardheaded scientists now speak calmly of using a homogeneous block of material as a memory, scanning its three dimensions with the speed of light to locate any one or more of billions of bits of data in a few inches of volume.

Writing on the head of a pin was a prophetic bit of showmanship, and pinhead-size computers will not necessarily have pinhead mentalities. This progress toward a seemingly hopeless goal takes on an inexorable quality when the writings of von Neumann are compared with the state of the art today. Starting out much faster but much larger than similar elements of the brain, computer components have been made even faster while simultaneously shrinking dramatically toward the dimensions necessary to produce quantitative equivalence. It happens that these goals work out well together, the one helping the other. Circuitry is now at the point where speed is ultimately dependent on that limiter of all physical activity, the speed of light, or of electrons through a conductor. Only by putting elements closer together can speed be increased; thus one quality is not achieved at the sacrifice of the other.

As an example of the progress being made toward speeding up computers, speakers at the recent Winter General Meeting of the American Institute of Electrical Engineers described a coming generation of “gigacycle” computers now on the drawing boards. Present electronic machines operate at speeds in the megacycle range, with 50 million cycles per second representing the most advanced state of the art. Giga means billion; thus the new round of computers will be some thousand times as fast as those now operating.

Among the firms who plan such ultraspeed computers are RCA, IBM, and Sperry Rand Corporation. To achieve such a great increase in speed requires faster electronic switches. Transistors have been improved, and more exotic devices such as tunnel diodes, thin-film cryotrons, magnetic thin-films, parametrons, and traveling-wave tubes are now coming into use. Much of the development work is being supported by the U.S. Bureau of Ships. Operational gigacycle computers are expected within two years!

Not just the brickmaker, but the architect too has been busy in the job of optimizing the computer. The science of bionics and the study of symbolic logic lead to better ways of doing things. The computer itself comes up with improvements for its next generation, making one part do the work of five, and eliminating the need for whole sections of circuitry. Most computers have a fixed “clock”; that is, they operate at a certain cyclic rate. Now appearing on the scene are “asynchronous” computers which don’t stand around waiting when one job is done, as their predecessors did.

One advanced notion is the “growing” of complex electronic circuitry, in which a completed amplifier, or array of amplifiers, is pulled from the crystal furnace much the way material for transistors is now grown. Pooh-poohed at first as ridiculous, the notion has been tried experimentally. Since a computer is basically a multiplicity of simple units, the idea is not far off at that. It is conceivable that crystal structure can be exploited to produce millions of molecules of the proper material properly aligned for the desired electronic action.

With this shrinking come the benefits of small size, low power consumption, low cost, and perhaps lower maintenance. The computer will be cheap enough for applications not now economically feasible. As this happens, what will the computer do for us tomorrow?

A figure of 7 per cent is estimated for the amount of paperwork the computer has taken over in the business world. Computer men are eyeing a market some five times that amount. It does not take a vivid imagination to decide that such a percentage is perhaps conservative in the extreme. Computer sales themselves promise to show a fourfold increase in the five-year period from 1960 to 1965, and in the past predictions have been exceeded many times.

As population grows and business expands in physical size and complexity, it is obvious that the computer and its data-processing ability will be called upon more and more. There is another factor, that of the internationalizing of business. Despite temporary setbacks of war, protective tariffs, insular tendencies, and the like, in the long run we will live in one integrated world shrunk by data links that can get information from here to there and back again so fast it will be like conversing with someone across the room. Already planners are talking worldwide computerized systems.

As a mathematical whiz, the computer will relieve us of our money worries. Coupled with the credit card, perhaps issued to us at birth, a central computer will permit us to make purchases anywhere in the world and to credit our account with wages and other income. If we try to overdraw, it may even flash a warning light as fast as we put the card in the slot! This project interests General Dynamics researchers.

Of more importance than merely doing bookkeeping is the impact the computer will have on the planning and running of businesses. Although it is found in surveys that every person thinks computer application reaches to the level just below his in the management structure, pure logic should ultimately win out over man’s emotional frailties at all levels. Operations research, implemented by the computer, will make for more efficient businesses. Decisions will increasingly be made not by vice-presidents but by digital computers. At first we will have to gather the necessary information for these electronic oracles, but in time they will take over this function themselves.

Business is tied closely to education, and we have had a hint of the place the computer will make for itself in education. The effect on our motivation to learn of the little need for much learning will be interesting. But then, is modern man a weaker being because he kills a tiger with a high-powered rifle instead of club or bare hands—or has no need to kill the tiger in the first place?

After having proved itself as a patent searcher, the computer is sure to excel as inventor. It will invade the artistic field; computers have already produced pleasing patterns of light. Music has felt the effect of the computer; the trend will continue. Some day not far off the hi-fi enthusiast will turn on his set and hear original compositions one after the other, turned out by the computer in as regular or random form as the hearer chooses to set the controls. Each composition will bring the thrill of a new, fresh experience, unless we choose to go back in the computer’s memory for the old music.

The computer will do far more in the home than dream up random music for listening pleasure. The recorded telephone answerer will give way to one that can speak for us, making appointments and so on, and remembering to bring us up to date when we get home. A small computer to plug in the wall may do other things like selecting menus and making food purchases for next week, planning our vacations, and helping the youngsters with their homework. It is even suggested that the computer may provide us with child-guidance help, plus psychological counsel for ourselves and medical diagnoses for the entire family. The entire house might be computerized, able to run itself without human help—even after people are gone, as in the grimly prophetic story by Ray Bradbury in which a neat self-controlled home is shown as the curtains part in the morning. A mechanical sweeper runs about gathering up dust, the air conditioning, lighting, and entertainment are automatic, all oblivious to the fact that one side of the house is blackened from the blast of a bomb.

Perhaps guarding against that eventuality is the most important job the computer can do. Applications of computing power to government have been given; and hints made of the sure path from simple tasks like the census and income tax, Peace Corps work, and so on to decision-making for the president. Just as logic is put to work in optimizing business, it can be used to plan and run a taut ship of state. At first such an electronic cabinet member will be given all available information, which it will evaluate so as to be ready to make suggestions on policy or emergency action. There is more reason for it going beyond this status to become an active agent, than there is against. Government has already become so complex that perhaps a human brain, or a collection of them, cannot be depended on to make the best possible decision. As communications and transportation are speeded up, the problem is compounded. Where once a commander-in-chief could weigh the situation for days before he had to commit himself and his country to a final choice, he may now be called upon to make such a far-reaching decision in minutes—perhaps minutes from the time he is awakened from a sound sleep. The strongest opposition to this delegation of power is man’s own vanity. No machine can govern, even if it can think, the politician exclaims. The soldier once felt the same way; but operations research has given him more confidence in the machine, and SAGE and NORAD prove to him that survival depends on the speed and accuracy of the electronic computer.

Incurable romanticism is found even among our scientific community. The National Bureau of Standards describes a computer called ADAM, for Absolutely Divine Automatic Machine. But the scientists also know that ADAM, or man, needs help. Rather than consider the machine a tool, or even an extension of man’s mind, some are now concerned with a kind of marriage of man and machine in which each plays a significant part. Dr. Simon Ramo, executive vice president of Thompson Ramo Wooldridge, Inc., has termed this mating of the minds “intellectronics.” The key to this combination of man’s intellect and that of electronics is closer rapport between the team members.

The man-machine concept has grown into a science called, for the present at least, “synnoetics,” a coinage from the Greek words _syn_ and _noe_ meaning “perceive” and “together.” This science is defined as the treating of the properties of composite systems, consisting of configurations of persons, mechanisms, plant or animal organisms, and automata, whose main attribute is that their ability to invent, to create, and to reason—their mental power—is greater than the mental power of their components.

We get a not-too-fanciful look into the future in a paper by Dr. Louis Fein presented in the summer 1961 issue of _American Scientist_, titled “Computer-related Sciences (Synnoetics) at a University in 1975.” Dr. Fein is an authority on computers, as builder of RAYDAC in 1952, and as founder and president of the Computer Control Company. The paper ostensibly is being given to alumni some years hence by the university president. Dr. Fein tells us that students in the Department of Synnoetics study the formal languages used in communication between the elements of a synnoetic system, operations research, game theory, information storage, organization and retrieval, and automatic programming. One important study is that of error, called Hamartiology, from the Greek word meaning “to miss the mark.”

The speaker tells us that this field was variously called cybernetics, information science, and finally computer-related science before being formally changed to the present synnoetics. A list of the courses available to undergraduates includes:

Von Neumann Machines and Turing Machines

Elements of Automatic Programming

Theory, Design, and Construction of Compilers

Algorithms: Theory, Design, and Applications

Foundations of the Science of Models

The Theory, Design, and Application of Non-Numeric Models

Heuristics

Self-Programming Computers

Advice Giving—Man to Machine and Machine to Man

Simulation: Principles and Techniques

Pattern Recognition and Learning by Automata

The Grammar, Syntax, and Use of Formal Languages for Communication Between Machine and Machine and Between Man and Man

Man-Automaton Systems: Their Organization, Use, and Control

Problem-Solving: an Analysis of the Relationship Between the Problem-Solver, the Problem, and the Means for Solution

Measurements of the Fundamental Characteristics of the Elements of Synnoetic Systems

Of course, synnoetics spills over into the other schools, as shown in the following typical courses taught:

Botany Department Machine-Guided Taxonomy in Botany

Business School Synnoetic “Business Executives”

Engineering School Theory of Error and Equipment Reliability Design of Analog and Digital Computers

Humanities Department Theory of Creative Processes in the Fine Arts

Law School Patent and Precedence Searches with Computers The Effect of Automata on the Legislative and Judicial Process

Mathematics Department The Theory of Graphs and the Organization of Automata

Medical School Computer-Aided Medical Diagnosis and Prescription for Treatment

Philosophy The Relationships between Models and the Phenomena That Are Modeled

Psychology Department Studies in Intuition and Intellect of Synnoetic Systems Simulation in the Behavioral Sciences

Sociology Department Synnoetics in Modern Society

The speaker proudly refers to the achievement of the faculty mediator and a computer in settling the “famous” strike of 1970.

He simply got both sides first to agree that each would benefit by concentrating attention—not on arguing and finally settling the issues one at a time—but on arguing and finally settling on a program for an automaton. This program would evaluate the thousands of alternative settlements and would recommend a small class of settlements each of which was nearly optimum for both sides. The automaton took only 30 minutes to produce the new contract last year. It would have taken one year to do this manually, and even then it would have been done less exhaustively. Agreeing on the program took one week. Of course, you have already heard that in many areas where people are bargaining or trying to make optimum decisions such as in the World Nations Organization, in the World Court, and in local, federal, and world legislative bodies, there is now serious consideration being given to convincing opposing factions to try to agree on a program and having once agreed on it, the contract or legislation or judgment or decision produced with the program would be accepted as optimum for both sides. Automata may also be provided to judges and juries to advise them of the effects of such factors as weight of evidence on verdicts in civil cases.

Dr. Fein makes an excellent case for the usefulness of the science of synnoetics; the main point of challenge to his paper might be that its date is too conservatively distant. Of interest to us here is the idea of man and machine working in harmony for the good of both.

Another paper, “The Coming Technological Society,” presented by Dr. Simon Ramo at the University of California at Los Angeles, May 1, 1961, also discusses the possible results of man-machine cooperation during the remainder of the twentieth century. He lists more than a dozen specific and important applications for intellectronics in the decades immediately ahead of us. Law, medicine, engineering, libraries, money, and banking are among these. Pointing out that man is as unsuited for “putting little marks on pieces of paper” as he was for building pyramids with his own muscles, he suggests that our thumbprints and electronic scanners will take care of all accounting. Tongue in cheek, he does say that there will continue to be risks associated with life; for instance, a transistor burning out in Kansas City may accidentally wipe out someone’s fortune in Philadelphia.

The making of reservations is onerous busywork man should not have to waste his valuable time on, and the control of moving things too is better left to the machine for the different reason that man’s unaided brain cannot cope with complex and high-speed traffic arteries, be they in space or on Los Angeles freeways. Business and military management will continue to be aided by the electronic machine.

But beyond all these benefits are those more important ones to our brains, our society, and culture. Teaching machines, says Dr. Ramo, can make education ten times more effective, thus increasing our intellect. And this improved intellect, multiplied by the electronic machine into intellectronic brainpower, is the secret of success in the world ahead. Instead of an automated, robotlike regimented world that some predict, Ramo sees greater democracy resulting. Using the thumbprint again, and the speed of electronics, government of our country will be truly by the people as they make their feelings known daily if necessary.

Intellectronic legislation will extend beyond a single country’s boundaries in international cooperation. It will smash the language and communication barriers. It will permit and implement not only global prediction of weather, but global control as well. Because of the rapid handling of vast amounts of information, man can form more accurate and more logical concepts that will lead to better relations throughout the world. Summing up, Dr. Ramo points out that intellectronics benefits not only the technical man but social man as well:

The real bottleneck to progress, to a safe, orderly, and happy transition to the coming technological age, lies in the severe disparity between scientific and sociological advance. Having discussed technology, with emphasis on the future extension of man’s intellect, we should ask: Will intellectronics aid in removing the imbalance? Will technology, properly used, make possible a correction of the very imbalance which causes technology to be in the lead? I believe that the challenging intellectual task of accelerating social progress is for the human mind and not his less intellectual partner. But perhaps there is hope. If the machines do more of the routine, everyday, intellectual tasks and insure the success of the material operation of the world, man’s work will be elevated to the higher mental domains. He will have the time, the intellectual stature, and hence the inclination to solve the world’s social problems. We must believe he has the capability.

Antedating synnoetics and intellectronics is another idea of such a relationship. In his book _The World, The Flesh and the Devil_, J. D. Bernal considers man’s replacement of various of his body’s parts with mechanical substitutes until the only organic remains would be his brain. This is a sort of wrong-end-to synnoetics, but in 1929 when the book was published there was already plenty of raw material for such a notion. Wooden legs and hooks or claws for hands, metal plates for bone material, for example; and the artificial heart already being developed. More recently we have seen the artificial kidney used, along with other organs. We have also added electronic gear to our organic components, for example the “pacemaker” implanted in many laggard hearts to keep them beating in proper cadence, plastic plumbing, and the like. There is a word for this sort of part-organic, part-mechanical man: the name “cyborg” for cybernetic organism was proposed by two New York doctors. Their technical definition of cyborg is “an exogenously extended organizational complex functioning as a homeostatic system.” There is of course strong precedent in nature for the idea of such a beneficial combination: symbiosis, the co-existence or close union of two dissimilar organisms. The shark and his buddy, the pilot fish, are examples; as are man and the many parasites to which he is host.

The idea of man being part of machine harks back to youthful rides in soapbox racers, and later experiences driving cars or flying aircraft. The pilot who flew “by the seat of his pants” in the early days easily felt himself part of the machine. As planes—and cars—grew bigger and more complex, this “one-manship” became more remote and harder to identify. The jet transport pilot may well have the feeling of handling a train when he applies force to his controls and must wait for it to be amplified through a servo system and finally act on the air stream. In the space age the man-machine combination not only survives but also flourishes. Arthur C. Clarke writes in a science-fiction story of a legless space man who serves well and happily in the weightlessness of his orbiting satellite station.

We have two stages of development, then, not necessarily sequential: man working with the machine and man as part of the machine. Several writers have suggested a third stage in which the machine gradually supplants the weaker human being much as other forms eased out the dinosaur of old. William O. Stapledon’s book, _Last and First Men_, describes immortal and literal giant brains. Many writers believe that these “brains” will not be man’s, but those of the machine, since frail humanity cannot survive in its increasingly hostile environment.