Chapter 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, ISSUES, AND ACTIONS

A. BACKGROUND

After viewing the destruction wrought by the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington State in May 1980, President Carter became concerned about the impacts of a similar event of low probability but high damage potential, namely a catastrophic earthquake in California, and the state of readiness to cope with the impacts of such an event.

As a result of the President's concern, an _ad hoc_ committee of the National Security Council was formed to conduct a government review of the consequences of, and preparation for such an event. In addition to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Committee included representatives from the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior, the Department of Defense, the Department of Transportation, and the National Communications System, at the Federal level; State of California agencies and California local governments at the State and local levels; and consultants from the private sector. During the summer of 1980, the participants in this review prepared working papers on relevant issues and problem areas for the consideration of the _ad hoc_ committee. Pertinent facts, conclusions and recommendations were reviewed with the Governor of the State of California. The President reviewed the _ad hoc_ committee's findings and approved the recommendations for Federal action. This report summarizes the results of the assessment and notes these actions.

A number of Federal legislative and administrative actions have been taken to bring about, in the near future, an increased capability to respond to such an event. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (P.L. 95-124) authorizes a coordinated and structured program to identify earthquake risks and prepare to lessen or mitigate their impacts by a variety of means. The coordination of this program, the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), is the responsibility of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is charged with focusing Federal efforts to respond to emergencies of all types and lessen their impacts before they occur. The NEHRP has six high-priority thrusts:

» Overall coordination of Federal departments and agencies' programs

» Maintenance of a comprehensive program of research and development for earthquake prediction and hazards mitigation

» Leadership and support of the Federal Interagency Committee on Seismic Safety in Construction as it develops seismic design and construction standards for use in Federal projects

» Development of response plans and assistance to State and local governments in the preparation of their plans

» Analysis of the ability of financial institutions to perform their functions after a creditable prediction of an earthquake as well as after an event, together with an exploration of the feasibility of using these institutions to foster hazard reduction

» An examination of the appropriate role of insurance in mitigating the impacts of earthquakes.

More recently, a cooperative Federal, State, local, and private-sector effort was initiated to prepare for responding to a credible large-magnitude earthquake, or its prediction, in Southern California.

B. SUMMARY

The review provided the overall assessment that the Nation is essentially unprepared for the catastrophic earthquake (with a probability greater than 50 percent) that must be expected in California in the next three decades. While current response plans and preparedness measures may be adequate for moderate earthquakes, Federal, State, and local officials agree that preparations are woefully inadequate to cope with the damage and casualties from a catastrophic earthquake, and with the disruptions in communications, social fabric, and governmental structure that may follow. Because of the large concentration of population and industry, the impacts of such an earthquake would surpass those of any natural disaster thus far experienced by the Nation. Indeed, the United States has not suffered any disaster of this magnitude on its own territory since the Civil War.

The basis for this overall assessment is summarized below and discussed in more detail in the subsequent chapters of this report.

C. LIKELIHOOD OF FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

Earth scientists unanimously agree on the inevitability of major earthquakes in California. The gradual movement of the Pacific Plate relative to the North American Plate leads to the inexorable concentration of strain along the San Andreas and related fault systems. While some of this strain is released by moderate and smaller earthquakes and by slippage without earthquakes, geologic studies indicate that the vast bulk of the strain is released through the occurrence of major earthquakes--that is, earthquakes with Richter magnitudes of 7.0 and larger and capable of widespread damage in a developed region. Along the Southern San Andreas fault, some 30 miles from Los Angeles, for example, geologists can demonstrate that at least eight major earthquakes have occurred in the past 1,200 years with an average spacing in time of 140 years, plus or minus 30 years. The last such event occurred in 1857. Based on these statistics and other geophysical observations, geologists estimate that the probability for the recurrence of a similar earthquake is currently as large as 2 to 5 percent per year and greater than 50 percent in the next 30 years. Geologic evidence also indicates other faults capable of generating major earthquakes in other locations near urban centers in California, including San Francisco-Oakland, the immediate Los Angeles region, and San Diego. Seven potential events have been postulated for purposes of this review and are discussed in chapter II. The current estimated probability for a major earthquake in these other locations is smaller, but significant. The aggregate probability for a catastrophic earthquake in the whole of California in the next three decades is well in excess of 50 percent.

D. CASUALTIES AND PROPERTY DAMAGE

Casualties and property damage estimates for four of the most likely catastrophic earthquakes in California were prepared to form a basis for emergency preparedness and response. Chapter III gives details on these estimates. Deaths and injuries would occur principally because of the failure of man-made structures, particularly older, multistory, and unreinforced brick masonry buildings built before the adoption of earthquake-resistant building codes. Experience has shown that some modern multistory buildings--constructed as recently as the late 1960's but not adequately designed or erected to meet the current understanding of requirements for seismic resistance--are also subject to failure. Strong ground shaking, which is the primary cause of damage during earthquakes, often extends over vast areas. For example, in an earthquake similar to that which occurred in 1857, strong ground shaking (above the threshold for causing damage) would extend in a broad strip along the Southern San Andreas fault, about 250 miles long and 100 miles wide, and include almost all of the Los Angeles-San Bernardino metropolitan area, and all of Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Kern counties.

For the most probable catastrophic earthquake--a Richter magnitude 8+ earthquake similar to that of 1857, which occurred along the Southern San Andreas fault--estimates of fatalities range from about 3,000, if the earthquake were to occur at 2:30 a.m. when the population is relatively safe at home, to more than 13,000, if the earthquake were to occur at 4:30 p.m. on a weekday, when much of the population is either in office buildings or on the streets. Injuries serious enough to require hospitalization under normal circumstances are estimated to be about four times as great as fatalities. For the less likely prospect of a Richter magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Newport-Inglewood fault in the immediate Los Angeles area, fatalities are estimated to be about 4,000 to 23,000, at the same respective times. Such an earthquake, despite its smaller magnitude, would be more destructive because of its relative proximity to the most heavily developed regions; however, the probability of this event is estimated to be only about 0.1 percent per year. Smaller magnitude--and consequently less damaging--earthquakes are anticipated with greater frequency on a number of fault systems in California.

In either of these earthquakes, casualties could surpass the previous single greatest loss of life in the United States due to a natural disaster, which was about 6,000 persons killed when a hurricane and storm surge struck the Galveston area of the Texas coast in 1900. The highest loss of life due to earthquakes in the United States occurred in San Francisco in 1906, when 700 people were killed. By way of comparison (in spite of the vast differences in building design and practices and socioeconomic systems) the devastating 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China caused fatalities ranging from the official Chinese Government figure of 242,000 to unofficial estimates as high as 700,000. Fortunately, building practices in the United States preclude such a massive loss of life.

Property losses are expected to be higher than in any past earthquake in the United States. For example, San Francisco in 1906, and Anchorage in 1964, were both much less developed than today when they were hit by earthquakes. And the San Fernando earthquake in 1971, was only a moderate shock that struck on the fringe of a large urban area. Each of these three earthquakes caused damage estimated at about $0.5 billion in the then current dollars. Estimates of property damage for the most probable catastrophic earthquake on the Southern San Andreas (Richter magnitude 8+) and for the less probable but more damaging one (Richter magnitude 7.5) on the Newport-Inglewood fault, are about $15 billion and $70 billion respectively. By comparison, tropical storm Agnes caused the largest economic loss due to a natural disaster in the United States to date but it amounted to only $3.5 billion (in 1972 dollars).

It should be noted, however, that substantial uncertainty exists in casualty and property damage estimates because they are based on experience with only moderate earthquakes in the United States (such as the 1971 San Fernando earthquake) and experience in other countries where buildings are generally less resistant to damage. The uncertainty is so large that the estimated impacts could be off by a factor of two or three, either too high or too low. Even if these lowest estimates prevail, however, the assessment about preparedness and the capability to respond to the disasters discussed in this report would be substantially unchanged.

Assuming a catastrophic earthquake, a variety of secondary problems could also be expected. Search and rescue operations--requiring heavy equipment to move debris--would be needed to free people trapped in collapsed buildings. It is likely that injuries, particularly those immediately after the event, could overwhelm medical capabilities, necessitating a system of allocating medical resources to those who could be helped the most. Numerous local fires must be expected; nevertheless, a conflagration such as that which followed the Tokyo earthquake of 1923, or the San Francisco earthquake of 1906, is improbable, unless a "Santa Ana type" wind pattern is in effect. Since the near failure of a dam in the San Fernando, California, earthquake of 1971 (which was a moderate event), substantial progress has been made in California to reduce the hazard from dams, in some cases through reconstruction. For planning purposes, however, experts believe that the failure of at least one dam should be anticipated during a catastrophic earthquake in either the Los Angeles or San Francisco regions.

Experience in past earthquakes, particularly the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, has demonstrated the potential vulnerability of commercial telephone service to earthquakes, including the possibility of damage to switching facilities from ground shaking and rupture of underground cables that cross faults. This is especially serious because immediately following earthquakes, public demand for telephone services increases drastically. This increased demand overloads the capability of the system, even if it had not been damaged, and therefore management action to reduce the availability of service to non-priority users and to accommodate emergency calls is mandatory. Radio-based communication systems, particularly those not requiring commercial power, are relatively safe from damage, although some must be anticipated. The redundancy of existing communication systems, including those designed for emergency use, means that some capability for communicating with the affected region from the outside would almost surely exist. Restoration of service by the commercial carriers should begin within 24 to 72 hours as a result of maintenance and management actions; however, total restoration of service would take significantly longer.

While numerous agencies have the capability for emergency communication within themselves, non-telephonic communication among entities and agencies in the affected area is minimal. This is true for Federal, State, and local agencies. This weakness has been pointed out repeatedly by earthquake response exercises, and the problem is raised by almost every emergency preparedness official at every level of government. Consequently, a major problem for resolution is the operational integration of communications systems and networks among the relevant Federal, State, and local agencies.

Because of their network-like character, most systems for transportation and water and power generation and distribution, as a whole, are resistant to failure, despite potentially severe local damage. These systems would suffer serious local outages, particularly in the first several days after the event, but would resume service over a few weeks to months. The principal difficulty would be the greatly increased need for these systems in the first few days after the event, when lifesaving activities would be paramount.

Portions of the San Francisco Bay Area and of the Los Angeles Area contain substantial concentrations of manufacturing capacity for guided missiles and space vehicles, semiconductors, aircraft parts, electronic computing equipment, and airframes. Their specific vulnerability to the postulated earthquakes was not analyzed. In the event of major damage, however, the long-term impacts may be mitigated somewhat by such measures as the use of underutilized capacity located elsewhere, substitution of capacity from other industries, imports, use of other products, and drawing-down of inventories.

Since we have not recently experienced a catastrophic earthquake in the United States, there are many unknowns which must be estimated with best judgment. This is true particularly for the response of individuals as well as governmental and other institutions. Popular assumptions of post-disaster behavior include antisocial behavior and the need for martial law, the breakdown of government institutions, and the requirement for the quick assertion of outside leadership and control. Practical experience and field studies of disasters, however, indicate that these assumptions are not necessarily correct. On the contrary, the impacts of the disaster commonly produce a sense of solidarity and cooperativeness among the survivors. Nonetheless, the perception remains among emergency response officials that there will be an increased need for law enforcement following the event.

Another major unknown involves whether a medium or short-term warning of the event would be possible and how such a warning could be utilized most effectively. The technology for earthquake prediction is in an early stage of development and, therefore it is problematical that researchers will succeed in issuing a short-term warning before a catastrophic earthquake, should the event occur in the next few years. Yet as research progresses, scientifically-based, intermediate-term warnings are possible, but subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Consequently, response preparations must be made for both an earthquake without warning, and one with a short-or intermediate-term warning, possibly with a significant level of uncertainty.

E. CAPABILITY FOR RESPONSE

Planning for response to a large-scale disaster is a complicated process encompassing many variables such as population densities and distribution characteristics; land-use patterns and construction techniques; geographical configurations; vulnerability of transportation; communications and other lifeline systems; complex response operations; long-term physical, social, and economic recovery policies. These factors, together with the realization that an earthquake has the potential for being the greatest single-event catastrophe in California, make it incumbent upon the State to maintain as high a level of emergency readiness as is practicable, and to provide guidance and assistance to local jurisdictions desiring to plan and prepare for such events. Annex 2 reviews the general nature of preparedness planning and the basic characteristics of California and Federal Government plans.

Federal, State, and local emergency response capabilities are judged to be adequate for moderate earthquakes--those that are most likely to occur frequently in California and cause property damage in the range of $1 billion. Such an event, however, would severely tax existing resources and provide a major test of management relationships among different governmental levels. Federal, State, and local officials, however, are quick to point out serious shortcomings in their ability to respond to a catastrophic earthquake. An analysis of the preparedness posture of 60 local governments, 34 California State organizations, and 17 Federal agencies, carried out by the California Office of Emergency Services (OES) and FEMA, indicates that response to such an earthquake would become disorganized and largely ineffective. Many governmental units have generalized earthquake response plans, some have tailored earthquake plans, and several plans are regularly exercised. The coordination of these plans among jurisdictions, agencies, and levels of government, however, is inadequate. In addition, the potential for prediction is not incorporated; long-term recovery issues are not considered; and communications problems are significant, as discussed above. Overall, Federal preparedness is deficient at this time. Early reaction to a catastrophic event would likely be characterized by delays, ineffective response, and ineffectively coordinated delivery of support.

FEMA Region IX (San Francisco) has drafted an Earthquake Response Plan for the San Francisco Bay area. Annex 2 gives an overview of this draft plan. This is a site-specific plan for response to potential catastrophic earthquake occurrences. The emergency response portion relies upon a decentralized approach which provides for Federal disaster support activities to be assigned to selected Federal agencies by mission assignment letters. No specific plans have been prepared in this detail for other seismic risk areas, although it is expected that the Bay Area plan could be easily adapted to other areas. The Department of Defense and the Department of Transportation are developing detailed earthquake plans that would ensure a well-organized and adequate response to mission assignments for a major earthquake. The plans of other agencies need further development.

Very significant capabilities to assist in emergency response exist within the California National Guard, California Highway Patrol, the Departments of Health Services and Transportation, and the U.S. Department of Defense. Capabilities exist for such lifesaving activities as _aerial reconnaissance, search and rescue, emergency medical services, emergency construction and repair, communications, and emergency housing and food_. Current estimates by both Federal and State officials, however, indicate that at least 6 to 8 hours would be required before personnel and equipment can be mobilized and begin initial deployment to the affected area. During the period before the arrival of significant outside assistance critical to the saving of lives (especially of those trapped in collapsed buildings), the public would be forced to rely largely upon its own resources for search and rescue, first aid, and general lifesaving actions. The current level of public preparation for this critical phase of response can be described as only minimal. Much of the current state of preparedness arises from past programs aimed at a wide spectrum of emergencies, particularly civil defense against nuclear attack. New or strengthened programs are needed to enhance public preparedness.

FEMA has recently entered into a cooperative effort with California State and local governments to prepare an integrated prototype preparedness plan to respond to a catastrophic earthquake in Southern California or to a prediction of such an event. The plan's completion, in late 1981, promises to improve substantially the state of readiness to respond to the prediction and the occurrence of an earthquake in that area and to provide a model which could be applied to other earthquake-prone regions of California and the rest of the country.

F. FINDINGS, ISSUES, AND ACTIONS

The _ad hoc_ committee responsible for this review developed several significant findings related to the implications of major earthquakes in California and our capabilities to respond to them. It then identified major relevant issues raised by these findings and caused a number of actions to be taken. A brief discussion of the results of its review follows.

1. Leadership

=Finding=: _Effective leadership at all governmental levels is the single most important factor needed to improve this Nation's preparedness for a catastrophic earthquake in California._ The problem of emergency preparedness is severely complicated because responsibilities for preparation and response cut across normal lines of authority. Further complication arises from the large areal extent of the impacts expected from a major earthquake, affecting literally dozens of government entities. The emergency services coordinator at any level of government is effective only to the extent he or she is backed by the political leadership at that level. This is especially true when preparedness activities must be done, for the most part, within existing resources. City and county officials must increasingly accept their share of the responsibility for preparedness, but commitment by State or Federal leaders is also essential. The general tendency among elected officials and the public is to ignore the existing hazard problem. Experience, however, teaches that effective response mechanisms must be in place before the disaster; they cannot be developed in the time of crisis. Overcoming this apathy and developing the organizational arrangements among Federal, State, and local government and volunteer agencies--together with the private sector and the general public will require, above all, leadership.

=Issue=: The leadership role of the Federal Government in preparing for a catastrophic earthquake in California and how this leadership role is to be exerted require clarification.

=Action=: The President has communicated with the Governor of California to indicate the results of this review, to express concern about the need for cooperative leadership to prepare for the event, and to offer to increase the Federal effort with the State of California and local governments in the cooperative undertaking to prepare for a catastrophic earthquake. He stressed that the Federal role is to supplement the effort and resources of the State, and that commitment of significant Federal resources would be contingent upon the application of significant State resources. In his response to the President's communications, the Governor of California underscored the State's readiness to participate in this cooperative effort and announced his signing into law a measure that would provide substantial State resources (see annex 1). A summary of the new law (A.B. 2202) is contained in annex 3.

2. Management of Preparedness and Response Activities

=Finding=: _Preparedness must be developed as a partnership between Federal, State, and local governments with improvements needed at all levels_, as none have the resources or authorities to solve the problem alone.

=Issue=: Since the Nation faces a very probable earthquake in California sometime during the next 30 years, FEMA should provide the necessary leadership, management, and coordination required to strengthen planning and preparedness within the Federal Government, as delegated under the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program of 1977 and the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. In this effort, FEMA requires the support and assistance of numerous other Federal agencies.

=Actions=: FEMA is taking steps to:

» Strengthen significantly its management, research, application, and coordination functions, as delegated under the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program and Disaster Relief Act.

» Lead other agencies in the development of a comprehensive preparedness strategy detailing specific objectives and assignments, and periodically monitor accomplishments in meeting assigned responsibilities.

Departments and agencies with appropriate capabilities will provide needed support to FEMA in strengthening Federal preparedness and hazard mitigation programs.

=Issue=: A major deficiency that has been identified is the potential for delay following a catastrophic earthquake in processing a request for a Presidential declaration of a major disaster, and the subsequent initiation of full-scale Federal support for lifesaving actions. The first few hours are critical in saving the lives of people trapped in collapsed buildings; consequently, this is when Federal support is needed most. Decisions on post-event recovery aspects of Federal assistance can be deferred until lifesaving operations are underway and sufficient information about damage is in hand.

=Action=: FEMA will develop and negotiate, before the event, an agreement with the State of California which will enable the President to declare a major disaster and initiate full-scale Federal support for lifesaving and humanitarian action within minutes of a catastrophic earthquake. The agreement will defer resolution of issues relating to longer-term restoration and recovery and similar questions with large budgetary implications until adequate damage estimates are available. The Executive Branch will thus be able to arrive at an informed decision.

=Issue=: Significant improvements in the Federal, State, and local capability for coordination of operational response to a catastrophic earthquake are needed.

=Actions=: FEMA and other appropriate Federal agencies will increase their efforts, in a partnership with appropriate State and local agencies and volunteer and private-sector organizations, to:

» Complete development and agreement on fully integrated earthquake response plans for both the San Francisco and Los Angeles regions, including provision for predicted as well as unpredicted earthquakes, building upon the existing draft plan for San Francisco.

» Establish a small FEMA staff in California dedicated to the coordination of earthquake preparedness planning and implementation.

» Develop improved mechanisms for the coordination of medical and mortuary activities following a catastrophic earthquake.

» Identify and document the critical requirements for emergency communications--particularly non-telephonic communications--among Federal, State, and local agencies. Shortfalls between critical requirements and current capabilities, as well as remedial actions or recommended solutions for each will be identified in accordance with the "National Plan for Communications Support in Emergencies and Major Disasters." This review will include consideration of using existing satellite communications or a dedicated system, should it be found necessary.

» Cooperatively conduct practice response exercises with State and local officials that will prepare officials and the public for conditions that might be encountered in a catastrophic earthquake and that would reveal deficiencies in planning.

=Issue=: Improving the current inadequate preparedness of the public for a catastrophic earthquake requires a substantial increase in public information and public awareness. Although public information is primarily a State, local, and private-sector responsibility, the Federal Government has a role as well. Because citizens will have no choice but to rely largely upon their own resources in the first several hours immediately following a catastrophic earthquake, it is important that certain basic knowledge about lifesaving measures be very widely disseminated.

=Action=: FEMA will stimulate and work with the State of California and other appropriate groups to develop and publicize earthquake awareness, hazard mitigation techniques, specific post-earthquake actions to be taken, including first aid, and other pertinent information.

=Issue=: The possibility of a credible, scientifically-based prediction of a catastrophic earthquake poses serious challenges to government and our society. The current level of scientific understanding of earthquake prediction and the available resources are such that present instrumentation efforts are directed toward research rather than maintaining extensive monitoring networks for real-time prediction. The transition from research to fully operational capability will require additional scientific understanding as well as resources. Earthquake predictions are possible, perhaps likely, however, from the current research effort. Even with a significant level of uncertainty, any scientifically credible prediction that indicates a catastrophic earthquake is expected within about 1 year or less, will require very difficult and consequential decisions on the part of elected officials at all levels of government. Decisions may include such possibilities as the mobilization of National Guard and U.S. Department of Defense resources prior to the event, the imposition of special procedures or drills at potentially hazardous facilities, such as nuclear reactors or dams, the condemnation or evacuation of particularly unsafe buildings with the subsequent need for temporary housing, and the provisions of special protection of fragile inventories. If the prediction is correct and appropriate actions are taken, thousands of lives can be saved and significant economic losses can be avoided. The costs of responding to a prediction may be substantial, however, and the commitment of resources undoubtedly will have to be made in the face of considerable uncertainty and even reluctance. Indeed, the possibility of an inaccurate prediction must be faced squarely.

=Actions=: FEMA, in conjunction with other appropriate Federal agencies, State and local governments, and volunteer and private-sector organizations, will increase its actions to develop procedures for responding to a credible, scientific earthquake prediction, including:

» Identification of constructive and prudent actions to be taken

» Analysis of the costs and benefits of various alternative actions

» Identification of roles and responsibilities in deciding which actions should be implemented and by whom

» Criteria for evaluating circumstances when the provision of Federal assistance would be appropriate

The U.S. Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior will:

» Maintain a sound and well-balanced program of research in earthquake prediction and hazard assessment based upon a carefully considered strategic plan

» Work with State and local officials and FEMA to develop improved mechanisms for the transmission of earthquake predictions and related information, and to plan for the utilization of the capability for earthquake prediction

3. Resources

=Finding=: While leadership and management are essential ingredients to achieve an adequate earthquake preparedness posture, _the availability of adequate staffing and resources at all levels of government determines the efficacy of agency programs and initiatives_. In many agencies, earthquake preparedness has been accorded a low priority in their programs. This is a manifestation of a more general problem of minimal agency resource allocation to emergency preparedness. The results of the actions that have been indicated will be limited unless additional resources are made available.

=Issue=: Additional resources should be provided as necessary to accelerate the earthquake hazard mitigation and preparedness activities under the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program.

=Action=: FEMA has reassessed its priorities and is allocating resources to increase the staffing, funding, and management attention and direction for earthquake hazards mitigation, including preparations for a catastrophic earthquake in California. This includes an increase of staff resources in FEMA Region IX for Federal, State, and local coordination of planning, preparedness, and mitigation. Resource needs that cannot be fully met by the reassessment and reallocation for Fiscal Year 1981 should be identified and justified along with needs for Fiscal Year 1982 in the course of the budget submissions for Fiscal Year 1982. To facilitate an adequate and balanced response by other Federal agencies, FEMA will provide timely guidance to other agencies on specific priorities for this effort in relation to other major preparedness goals. The Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Science and Technology Policy will work together to develop a cross-agency ranking of budgetary resources for earthquake preparedness for Fiscal Year 1982.