CHAPTER XII

THE FAMOUS TWENTY-ONE DEMANDS, 1915

"Japan is going to take advantage of this war to get control of China." In these words President Yuan Shih-kai summed up the situation when I made my first call on him after returning from Europe in September. Many Chinese friends came to see me and tell me their fears. Admiral Tsai said: "Here are the beginnings of another Manchuria. Aggressive Japan in Shantung is different from any European tenant."

Events had moved rapidly. Tsingtau had been taken, German control had been wholly eliminated from the leasehold and the railway. The Chinese Government notified Japan that permission to use part of the Province of Shantung for military operations would be withdrawn, since occasion for it had disappeared. This the Japanese seized upon as a calculated and malignant insult; it was made the excuse for presentation of the demands.

The blow fell on January 18th. The Japanese minister sought a private interview with Yuan Shih-kai. This meeting took place at night. With a mien of great mystery and importance the minister opened the discussion. He enjoined absolute secrecy on pain of serious consequences before handing Yuan the text of the demands. He made therewith an oral statement of the considerations which favoured the granting of them.

The Chinese, fearing greater evils, did their best to guard the secret. They could not, however, keep in complete ignorance those whose interests would have been vitally affected; also memoranda of important conversations had to be set down. As soon as I received the first inkling of what was going on, I impressed it on the Chinese that, since the subjects under discussion intimately affected American rights in China, I should be kept fully informed in order that my government, relying on the treaties and understandings concerning Chinese independence, could take necessary steps to safeguard its interests. The Chinese were of course ready to comply with my request. My intercourse with Chinese cabinet ministers and Foreign Office members was not confined to formal interviews and dinners. We exchanged many visits during which we conversed far into the night, without wasting time over formalities or official camouflage.

In the conversation in which he presented the twenty-one demands, the Japanese minister dropped several significant hints.

The minister then spoke of the Chinese revolutionists "who have very close relations with many Japanese outside of the Government, and have means and influence"; further, "it may not be possible for the Japanese Government to restrain such people from stirring up trouble in China unless the Chinese Government shall give some positive proof of friendship." The majority of the Japanese people, he continued, were opposed to President Yuan Shih-kai. "They believe," he went on, "that the President is strongly anti-Japanese, and that his government befriends the distant countries (Europe and America) and antagonizes the neighbour. If the President will now grant these demands, the Japanese people will be convinced that his feeling is friendly, and it will then be possible for the Japanese Government to give assistance to President Yuan." Yuan sat silent throughout this ominous conversation. The blow stunned him. He could only say: "You cannot expect me to say anything to-night."

Quite aside from the substance of the twenty-one demands, the threats and promises implied in this statement convinced the Chinese leaders that Japan was contemplating a policy of extensive interference in the domestic affairs and political controversies in China, making use of these as a leverage to attain its own desires. The Chinese considered it an ominous fact that the paper on which the demands were written was watermarked with dreadnoughts and machine guns. They believed that the use of this particular paper was not purely accidental. Such details mean a good deal with people who are accustomed to say unpleasant things by hints or suggestions rather than by direct statements.

A Japanese press reporter called at the Legation on January 19th, and related his troubles to one of the secretaries. The Japanese minister refused absolutely, he said, to say anything about what passed between him and the President; therefore he had sought the American Legation, which might have knowledge which could help him. With his assumed naïveté the man possibly hoped to get a hint as to whether a "leak" had occurred between the Chinese and the American minister. But it was not until January 22nd that I learned the astonishing nature of the Japanese proposals. Calling on one of the Chinese ministers on current business, I found him perturbed. He finally confided to me, almost with tears, that Japan had made categorical demands which, if conceded, would destroy the independence of his country and reduce her to a servile state. He then told me in general terms their nature, saying: "Control of natural resources, finances, army! What will be left to China! Our people are being punished for their peacefulness and sense of justice." The blow evidently had come with stunning force, and the counsellors of the President had not been able to overcome the first terrified surprise, or to develop any idea as to how the crisis might be met.

An ice festival was being given on the next evening at the American guard skating rink. Mr. B. Lenox Simpson sought me out and accosted me quite dramatically, with the words: "While we are gambolling here, the sovereignty of the country is passing like a cloud to the east. It is Korea over again." He had received accurate information as to the general character of the demands. Two days later the representative of the London _Times_, who had been out of town, asked me casually: "Has anything happened?" "You may discover that something has happened," I replied, "if you look about." That evening he returned to me with all that he could gather.

Although these correspondents, as well as the Associated Press representative, telegraphed the astounding news to their papers, nothing was published for two weeks either in America or in England. The Associated Press withheld the report because its truth was categorically denied by the Japanese ambassador at Washington. Its Peking representative was directed to send "facts, not rumours." On January 27th it was given out "on the highest authority" both at Tokyo and at Washington that information purporting to outline the basis of negotiations was "absolutely without foundation." Only gradually the truth dawned on the British and American press. The British censor had held up the reports for a fortnight, but on February 5th Mr. Simpson wrote me in a hasty note: "My editors are in communication with me, and we have beaten the censors." From 25th January on, the demands began to be discussed confidentially among members of the diplomatic corps but publicly by the press in Peking. As the impossibility of keeping the matter secret locally was now universally granted from this time high Chinese officials consulted with me almost daily about their difficulties. The acceptance of these demands, of course, would have effectively put an end to the equal opportunities hitherto enjoyed in China by American citizens; I therefore made it my duty to watch the negotiations with great care.

The Japanese were avoiding any interference with the formal "integrity, sovereignty, and independence" of China; they were developing special interests, similar to those enjoyed by Japan in Manchuria, in other parts of China as well, particularly in the provinces of Shantung and Fukien. They could place the Chinese state as a whole in vassalage, through exercising control over its military establishment and over the most important parts of its administration. There would be three centres from which Japanese influence would be exercised--Manchuria, Shantung, and Fukien. Manchuria was to be made more completely a reserved area for Japanese capital and colonization, but with administrative control wielded through advisers and through priority in the matter of loans. In Shantung, the interest formerly belonging to Germany was to be taken over and expanded. A priority of right in Fukien was demanded, both in investment and development; this would effectively bar other nations and would assimilate this province to Manchuria. The northern sphere of Japan was to be expanded by including Inner Mongolia. From the Shantung sphere influence could be made to radiate to the interior by means of railway extensions to Honan and Shansi. Similarly, from the Fukien sphere, railway concessions would carry Japanese influence into the provinces of Kiangsi, Hupei, and Kwangtung. The Japanese interest already existing in the Hanyehping iron and coal enterprise, which was a mortgage with right to purchase pig iron at certain rates, was to be consolidated into a Japanese-controlled company. Added to these was the significant demand that outsiders be denied the right to work any mines in the neighbourhood of those owned by the Hanyehping company without its consent; nor were they to be permitted, lacking such consent, to carry out any undertaking that might directly or indirectly affect the interests of that company. This astonishing proposal sought to make the Japanese concern the arbiter of industrial enterprise in the middle Yangtse Valley.

Group V consisted of the sweeping demands which would have virtually deprived the Chinese Government of the substance of control over its own affairs. The employment of effective Japanese advisers in political, financial, and military affairs; the joint Chino-Japanese organization of the police forces in important places; the purchase from Japan of a fixed amount of munitions of war--50 per cent. or more; and the establishment of Chino-Japanese jointly worked arsenals, were embraced in these demands. The latter involved effective control over the armament and military organization of China.

So stunned was the Chinese Government by the Japanese stroke that it missed its first opportunity. It might have immediately given notice to the friendly Treaty Powers of the demands, which affected their equal rights in China, as well as the administrative independence of the Chinese Government.

A member of the Foreign Office consulted me about the best method of dealing with the demands; I expressed the opinion--which was not given by way of advice--that the detailed negotiation of individual demands, with a view of granting only the least objectionable, would be likely to give most force to considerations of equity. Time would be gained; the other nations interested would come to realize what was at stake. If certain liberal grants and concessions should be made, China could then with greater force refuse to create rights and privileges incompatible with her sovereignty. The situation would then be more fully and clearly understood by foreign nations.

As the negotiations proceeded the Japanese minister hinted to the Minister for Foreign Affairs that the Japanese public looked askance at the present Chinese administration, because of the hostility often demonstrated by Yuan Shih-kai; still, this feeling might be conciliated. It might even be possible for the Japanese Government to give President Yuan assistance against rebel activities. The sinister quality of this hint was fully appreciated. It was at this point that the Japanese minister used the simile which promptly became famous throughout the Far East. He employed this picturesque language: "The present crisis throughout the world virtually forces my government to take far-reaching action. When there is a fire in a jeweller's shop, the neighbours cannot be expected to refrain from helping themselves."

Notwithstanding powerful efforts on the part of Japan to enforce silence by menacing China and by muzzling the press in Japan, accurate information got abroad; whereupon the Japanese Government presented to the powers an expurgated version of its demands, from which the more objectionable articles were omitted. Later on, it was admitted that the demands of Group V had been "discussed," and statements were again issued on "the highest authority" that these so-called demands were merely overtures or suggestions, which violated no treaty and involved no infringement of Chinese territory and sovereignty. The Japanese Legation in Peking asked local correspondents to send out a similar statement, which, however, was refused by them, as the true nature of the demands was already known.

The British, who had more extensive interests at stake than any other foreign nation, had shown agitation. British residents and officials expressed deep concern because their government, being necessarily preoccupied with events in Europe, could not give full attention to the Far East. As the action of Japan had been taken under the ægis of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, it seemed to the British that this was being used to nullify any influence which Great Britain might exercise, as against a plan on the part of Japan to seize control of the immense resources of China and of her military establishment.[2] It was believed that some sort of communication relating to the demands had been made to the British Foreign Office before January 18th. When the expurgated summary came out, the _Times_ of London on February 12th published an editorial article describing Japan's proposals as reasonable and worthy of acceptance; it was understood in Peking that this approval related to the summary, not to the demands as actually made. But the Chinese officials were apprehensive lest a ready acquiescence of public opinion in the less obnoxious demands might encourage Japan to press the more strongly for the whole list. As late as February 19th, the State Department informed me that it inferred that the demands under Group V were not being urged. The full text of the actual demands as originally made had now been communicated to the various foreign offices; but because of the discrepancy between the two statements, they were inclined to believe that Japan was not really urging the articles of Group V.

The Japanese minister had at first demanded the acceptance in principle of the entire twenty-one proposals. This was declined by the Chinese Minister for Foreign Affairs. When the Japanese asked that Mr. Lu express a general opinion on each proposal, he readily indicated which of them the Chinese Government considered as possible subjects for negotiation. Forthwith the Japanese minister replied that the expression of opinion by Minister Lu was unsatisfactory; that negotiations could not continue unless it were radically modified. Mr. Lu was evasive and Mr. Hioki on February 18th became more peremptory; he informed Mr. Lu that the negotiations might not be confined to the first four groups--that the whole twenty-one demands must be negotiated upon.

Thereupon I telegraphed inviting President Wilson's personal attention to the proposals which affected the rights and legitimate prospects of Americans in China. The President had already written me in a letter of February 8th: "I have had the feeling that any direct advice to China, or direct intervention on her behalf in the present negotiations, would really do her more harm than good, inasmuch as it would very likely provoke the jealousy and excite the hostility of Japan, which would first be manifested against China herself.... For the present I am watching the situation very carefully indeed, ready to step in at any point where it is wise to do so."

Shantung was first taken up in the negotiations. The negotiators were: the Chinese Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr. Lu Tseng-tsiang; the vice-minister, Mr. Tsao Ju-lin; the Japanese minister, Mr. Eki Hioki; and Mr. Obata, Counsellor of Legation. Vice-Minister Tsao had been educated in Japan, and was generally considered as friendly to that country. The Japanese minister, genial in manner and insistent in business, was aided by a counsellor noted for tenacity of purpose and for a grim dourness. Point by point the demands on Shantung and Manchuria were sifted. By the preamble to Group II, in the original version, Japan claimed a "special position" in south Manchuria and in eastern Inner Mongolia. The Chinese took decided objection. The Japanese minister complained on March 6th of slow progress, giving thenceforward frequent hints that force might be resorted to. Finally, on March 11th, the Chinese were informed that a Japanese fleet had sailed for ports in China under sealed orders.

After agreeing to important concessions in Manchuria and Shantung, the Chinese determined to resist further demands. Just here the American Government gave the Japanese ambassador at Washington its opinion that certain clauses in the demands contravened existing treaty provisions. For the Japanese ambassador had offered a supplementary memorandum which substantially gave the proposals of Group V as "requests for friendly consideration." They were "mere suggestions" to the Chinese! This method of disarming foreign opposition imposed one disadvantage--it would hereafter hardly do actually to use military force to coerce China into accepting the "friendly suggestions" contained in Group V. The only chance of getting these concessions was to keep the other governments in uncertainty as to the actual demands, that they might not take them seriously, and meanwhile to bring pressure to bear in order to force Peking to accept these very proposals. The Chinese would feel themselves abandoned by the public opinion of the world.

The Japanese increased their military forces in Manchuria and Shantung during the second half of March; for a time the movement stopped the ordinary traffic on the Shantung Railway.

The new troops were "merely to relieve those now stationed in Chinese territory," it was stated. Military compulsion was clearly foreshadowed; and thus beset, the Chinese had by the end of March almost entirely accepted the Japanese demands in Shantung and Manchuria. I had a long interview with President Yuan Shih-kai on March 23rd. He seemed greatly worried but was still good-humoured. He said: "The buzzing gnats disturb my sleep, but they have not yet carried off my rice. So I can live." Then growing serious he went on: "I am prepared to make all possible concessions. But they must not diminish Chinese independence. Japan's acts may force upon me a different policy."

I wondered whether he was actually contemplating armed resistance. "Against any action taken by Japan, America will not protest, so the Japanese officials tell us. But the Japanese have often tried to discourage the Chinese by such statements," he added. "They say: 'America has no interest in the Chinese'; or, 'America cannot help you even if she wishes to.'"

Yuan felt that if America could only say, gently but firmly: "Such matters concerning foreign rights in China, in which we have an interest by treaties, policy, and traditions, cannot be discussed without our participation," the danger would largely dissolve.

Certain possible solutions were now suggested by the Department of State. They aimed to bestow desired benefits on Japan, but also to protect China and the interests of other nations in China. Personally, I felt that the demands of Group V should be wholly eliminated. Any version of them would tangle, would more inextricably snarl, the already complicated relationships of foreign powers in China, and choke all constructive American action.

The Japanese demands respecting Manchuria were substantially complied with during early April; and the Chinese thought this part of the negotiations closed. Not so the Japanese; they manoeuvred to keep open the Manchurian question on points of detail. Meanwhile, they persistently injected Group V into the negotiations.

For over two months the negotiations had now gone on with two or three long conferences every week. The furnishing of war materials, Fukien Province, and pointed references to a "certain power"--meaning the United States--occupied the Japanese part of the discussion on April 6th. The Japanese minister was strikingly peremptory in manner. Because of the pretensions of this "certain power" he must insist on the demands regarding harbours and dockyards. Control, direct or indirect, of any naval base in Fukien must be frustrated, for the sake both of China and of Japan. The present American administration might withdraw its "pretensions"; but what if they should be resumed in future? The only safe course was to exclude this power from any possibility of getting such a foothold. Meanwhile, local Japanese-edited papers harped upon the great influence which Ambassador Chinda was alleged to wield over Secretary Bryan. It would be futile to hope, they insisted, that America might in any way assert herself in support of China.

At this time I informed the Chinese Minister for Foreign Affairs that should the attitude or policy of the United States be mentioned by any foreign representative, and should statements be made as to what the American Government would or would not admit, demand, or insist upon, the Chinese Government would be more than justified in taking up such a matter directly with the representative of the United States, through whom alone authoritative statements as to the action of his government could be made.

The American Government had filed with the Japanese strong objections to the granting of any special preference to any one nation in Fukien. It had also emphasized the right of its citizens to make contracts with the central and provincial Chinese governments, without interference and without being regarded as unfriendly by a third power. So far as harbours and naval bases were concerned, as stated previously, the American Government did not object to any arrangement whereby China would withhold such concessions _from any and all_ foreign powers. But Japan needed to allege some reason for making special demands with respect to Fukien; therefore it alleged the machinations of a "certain power."

No cause for apprehension existed. The talk of "pretensions" related to the Bethlehem Steel Company's contract, made five years earlier, which did not, however, touch Fukien, although a spurious version of the contract, circulated in Peking shortly before, gave this impression. An unfounded report spread by interested parties was thus made the basis for a demand against the Chinese Government.

Meanwhile, what the Japanese had put forth for foreign consumption in the way of news was being compared with what was actually done in Peking. This annoyed the Japanese press, not so much because its government had been caught in the act of trying to mislead its own allies, as because timely publicity and strong public opinion abroad were defeating the attempt to impose its demands on the Chinese. The Chinese relied on public opinion. It was their great desire, as they often said to me, that although the American people and its government might not furnish material assistance it should at least know the facts about the attack made on Chinese liberty; for they saw in the public opinion of the world, and especially of the United States, the force which would ultimately prevail. Even with Yuan Shih-kai, man of authority though he was, this hope existed. Mr. Lu, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, said to me: "All that China hopes is that America and the world may know and judge."

Finally the _Japan Mail_, a semi-official Tokyo paper, published on April 1st the full text of the Japanese demands in English. Thus was admitted as a matter of course what had been categorically denied upon "the highest authority." While the secret negotiations were going on there was a byplay on the part of many official and non-official Japanese, who were evidently trying to create an atmosphere of antagonism to the Western nations. I received daily reports of conversations in private interviews, at dinners, and on semi-public occasions, in which Japanese were reminding the Chinese of all possible grievances against the West, and picturing to them the strength and importance that a Chino-Japanese alliance would have. Thus it was said many times: "Think of all the places from which we are at present excluded. Should we stand together, who could close the door in our face?" Or again: "Are you not weary of the domineering attitude of the foreign ministers in Peking? They do not pound the table in Tokyo. They would be sent home if they did." It was constantly repeated that all would be well if only China would let Japan reorganize her material and military resources. Visions of millions under arms, splendidly drilled and equipped--an invincible Chinese army officered by Japanese--were conjured up. To all such siren songs, however, the Chinese remained deaf.

A complete deadlock developed toward the end of April. The Chinese desired to dispose of the grants concerning Manchuria. The Japanese would not agree to anything definite without including the demands under Group V. As a prelude to an ultimatum, the Japanese minister on April 26th presented "demands" with respect to Shantung and Mongolia, unchanged except for the wording of the preamble; this substituted the term "economic relations" for "special position." With respect to Hanyehping, they were softened to provide that the Chinese might not convert the company into a state-owned concern, nor cause it to borrow foreign capital other than Japanese. Certain railway concessions were to be granted, and the most important demands under Group V were to be embodied into a protocol statement by the Minister for Foreign Affairs.

Mr. Lu pointed out that the railway grants sought conflicted with the concessions already given to British interests; Mr. Hioki then proposed that China grant these same concessions to Japan, letting Japan "fight it out" with Great Britain. With respect to Fukien, China was to state, in an exchange of notes, that no foreign nation might build dockyards or naval bases there, nor should foreign capital be borrowed for that purpose. Japan, therefore, abandoned her attempt to secure preferential rights in Fukien Province.

The Minister for Foreign Affairs handed his answer to the Japanese minister on May 1st. The demands under Group V, Mr. Hioki was informed, could not possibly be accepted by a sovereign power. With respect to the other demands, a specific answer was given very closely approaching acceptance of the demands as revised by Japan. No railway concessions were made, however, and it included certain technical modifications with respect to the Manchurian demands. Everything asked with respect to Shantung was granted, with the counter-proposal that China take part in the negotiations between Japan and Germany.

This was conciliatory; nevertheless, the Japanese were moving their troops. Everything indicated extreme measures. Japan's reservists in Mukden had been ordered to their station, Japanese residents in Peking were warned to hold themselves ready. At Tsinanfu, new entrenchments were being built. When it was known that an ultimatum would be delivered, the Chinese officials were perplexed and undecided. Should they await its delivery, or try to placate the Japanese by further concessions? The Chinese find it hard to obey a demand backed by force; they are used to arrangements based on persuasion, reason, and custom. To submit to positive foreign dictation would be the greatest conceivable _diminutio capitis_ for the Government. Chinese officials visited me frequently. They seemed comforted in discussing their difficulties and fears. I could not, of course, give them advice, but I expressed my personal conviction that Japan could hardly find it feasible to include Group V--which she had explained to the powers as suggestions of friendship--in an ultimatum.

The position of the American minister throughout these negotiations had not been easy. The United States was the only power that had its hands free. The Chinese expected its resentment and strong opposition to any arrangements conflicting with Chinese independence and the equal rights of Americans in China. I could reiterate our repeated declarations of policy and allow the Chinese to draw their own conclusions as to how far our national interests were involved. But when the minister I saw most frequently would ask: "But what will you do to maintain these rights you have so often asserted?" I had to be particularly careful not to express my own judgment as to what our course of action should be, in order not to arouse any hopes among the Chinese as to what my government would do. Instructions had been slow in coming.

It was my personal opinion that America had a sufficiently vital interest to insist on being consulted on every phase of these negotiations. The Chinese had hoped that America might lead Great Britain and France in a united, friendly, but positive insistence that the demands be settled only by common consent of all the powers concerned. But the situation was complex. The state of Europe was critical. The most I could do, and the least I owed the Chinese, was to give a sympathetic hearing to whatever they wished to discuss with me, and to give them my carefully weighed opinion. Our own national interests were closely involved. It was my positive duty to keep close watch of what was going on. While not taking the responsibility of giving advice to the Chinese, I could give them an idea as to how the tactical situation, as it developed from week to week, impressed me. Dr. Wellington Koo all through this time acted as liaison officer between the Minister for Foreign Affairs and myself, although I also saw many other members of the Ministry. In discussing the consecutive phases of the negotiations, as they developed, Doctor Koo and I had many interesting hours over diplomatic tactics and analysis, in which I admired his keenness of perception. Some objection was hinted by the Japanese Legation to Doctor Koo's frequent visits to my office and house, but his coming and going continued, as was proper.

Councils were held daily at the President's residence from May 1st on. Informally, the ministers of the Entente Powers advised the Chinese not to attempt armed resistance to Japan; I believe the Government never seriously contemplated this, although some military leaders talked about it. Indeed, violent scenes took place in the Council; it was urged that submission would mean national disintegration. It would rob the Government of all authority and public support, while resistance would rally the nation. The advance of Japan might be obstructed until the end of the Great War; then European help would come. They pressed the President with arguments that Japan might, indeed, occupy larger parts of China; but this would not create rights, it would expose Japan to universal condemnation. However, in the existing circumstances of World War, the Government feared that to defy Japan would mean dismemberment for China.

Then President Yuan Shih-kai and the Foreign Office made their mistake. They were panic-stricken at thought of an ultimatum. They were ready to throw tactical advantage to the winds. Losing sight of the advantage held by China in opposing the demands of Group V, they offered concessions on points contained therein, particularly in connection with the employment of advisers.

But when the Foreign Office emissary came to the Japanese Legation with these additional proposals and the Japanese minister saw how far the Chinese could be driven, he stated calmly that the last instructions of his government left no alternative; the ultimatum would have to be presented. This was done on May 7th at three o'clock in the afternoon.

The Chinese might have foreseen that the demands of Group V would not be included in the ultimatum. Nevertheless, they were astonished at their omission, and annoyed at unnecessarily committing themselves the day before. At first sight, the terms of the ultimatum seemed to dispose of these ominous demands. In the first sense of their relief from a long strain, the Chinese understood the stipulation of the ultimatum that "the demands of Group V will be detached from the present negotiations, and discussed separately in the future," as an adroit way of abandoning these troublesome questions. They were soon to learn that their hopes were not in accord with the ideas of the Japanese.

Why, when the Chinese were virtually ready to agree to all the demands actually included in the ultimatum, should the Japanese not have accepted the concessions, even if they fell slightly short of what was asked? Thus they would avoid the odium of having threatened a friendly government with force; a matter which, furthermore, would in its nature tend to weaken the legal and equitable force of the rights to be acquired. The Japanese made two fundamental mistakes. The first was in their disingenuous denials and misrepresentation of the true character of the demands; the second, in the actual use of an ultimatum threatening force. That these mistakes were serious is now quite generally recognized in Japan. Why they were made in the first place is more difficult to explain.

Possibly, in the light of subsequent events, when Yuan Shih-kai realized that he must unavoidably make extensive concessions, he may have sought a certain _quid pro quo_ in the form of Japanese support for his personal ambitions. This would accord with the hint dropped by the Japanese minister at the beginning of the negotiations. If this explanation be correct, one might possibly understand that Yuan himself in his inmost thought preferred that he should be forced to accept these demands through an ultimatum. The possibility of such motives may have to be considered, yet from my knowledge of the negotiations from beginning to end, I must consider utterly fanciful the charge made by Yuan's enemies that it was he who originally conceived the idea of the twenty-one demands, in order that he might secure Japanese support for his subsequent policies and ambitions.

A reason for the harsh measure of the Japanese Government is admissible. The Japanese may have feared that public opinion throughout the world, which was disapproving the character and scope of these negotiations, would encourage the Chinese to hold out in matters of detail and gradually to raise new difficulties. Moreover, the men who wielded the power of Japan were believers in military prestige and may have expected good results from basing their new rights in China directly on military power.

The ultimatum gave the Chinese Government a little over forty-eight hours, that is, until 6 P.M. on May 9th, for an answer. On May 8th, the cabinet and Council of State met in a session which lasted nearly all day, finally deciding that the ultimatum must be accepted in view of the military threats of Japan.

In their reply to the ultimatum a serious tactical mistake was made. I had been informed that it would be accepted in simple and brief language; that the Chinese Government would say it had made certain grants to the Japanese, which would be enumerated, making no mention of Group V. Toward evening of the 9th a member of the Foreign Office came to me, quite agitated, saying that the Japanese Legation insisted that the demands of Group V be specifically reserved for future discussion. "What form," I asked, "has the Chinese answer taken?" "This," he replied: "'The Chinese Government, etc., hereby accepts, with the exception of the five articles of Group V, all the articles of Group I, etc.' But," he added, "when the draft was submitted to the Japanese Legation, they insisted that after the words 'Group V' there be added the clause 'which are postponed for later negotiation.'" It had been thought necessary, my visitor explained, to state in the reply that something had been refused, in order to save the face of the Government. But it is perfectly plain that if Group V had not been mentioned at all, the Japanese would have found it hard to insist upon its being kept open; for it could not be avowed before other nations as part of the matter covered by the ultimatum. As it was, the demands in Group V were given the character of unfinished business, to be taken up at a future date. Thus portentously, they continued to hang over the heads of the Chinese.

Partly in an exchange of notes, partly in a convention, the concessions exacted through the ultimatum were granted. None of these was ever ratified by the parliamentary body, as the Constitution requires. Because of their origin and of this lack of proper ratification, the Chinese people have looked upon the agreements of 1915 as invalid.

The State Department had cabled on May 6th counselling patience and mutual forbearance to both governments. The advice was needed by Japan, but the instructions came too late; the ultimatum had been presented. I should have found that its delivery would have seemed like whispering a gentle admonition through the keyhole after the door had been slammed to.

The Department cabled on May 11th an identical note to both governments, which I delivered to the Minister for Foreign Affairs on the 13th. It was published in the Peking papers on the 24th, together with a telegram from Tokyo asserting "on the highest authority" that the report of the existence of such a note was only another instance of machinations designed to cause political friction.

When he received the note Minister Lu said that he had tried throughout to safeguard the treaty rights of other nations, with which China's own rights were bound up. To a question from him I replied that the American Government was not now protesting against any special proposal, but insisted that the rights referred to in the note be given complete protection in the definitive provisions of the Treaty. The newly acquired privileges of the Japanese in Manchuria were touched on in the conversation; I pointed out that any rights of residence granted to the Japanese, by operation of the most-favoured-nation clause, would accrue in like terms to all other nations having treaties with China; they ought to be informed, therefore, of all the terms of the agreement affecting such rights. On May 15th the Department confirmed this view by cabled instructions, which I followed with a formal note to the Minister for Foreign Affairs.

It appeared that the Chinese Government was comforted by an expression in which the United States in clear terms reasserted its adhesion to the fundamental principles of American policy in the Far East.

So ended the famous negotiations of the Twenty-one Demands. Japan had gained from the unrepresentative authorities at Peking certain far-reaching concessions. But in China the people, as an anciently organized society, are vastly more important than any political government. The people of China had not consented.

FOOTNOTES:

[Footnote 2: For instance, Putnam Weale wrote: "Though Englishmen believe that the gallant Japanese are entitled to a recompense just as much now as they were in 1905 for what they have done, Englishmen do not and cannot subscribe to the doctrine that Japan is to dominate China by extorting a whole ring-fence of industrial concessions and administrative privileges which will ultimately shut out even allies from obtaining equal opportunities.... In China, though they are willing to be reduced to second place and even driven out by fair competition, they will fight in a way your correspondents do not yet dream of to secure that no diplomacy of the jiujitsu order injures them or their Chinese friends."]